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Obsidian

Eur/chf

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it was a nice day as (i am guessing) speculators pushed it down and failed to break the floor (not surprisingly). anyway, had chance to load more around 1.2006, though the spread was 5 pips during that volatile time

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Some people think SNB lost its credibility because it was a couple of pips below 1.20 some days ago...SNB is not making unnecessary spikes as BoJ did in the past...

until the market proves me I am wrong, I will be waiting around 1.20 to buy again...with a different profit target though :cool:

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this sounds interesting...

 

Speculation Of A Shift In The EUR/CHF Floor Continues To Intensify

 

EUR/CHF continues to flat line close to the 1.20 line in the sand implemented by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Renewed tensions in the Eurozone have if anything renewed the appeal of the CHF, making the job of the SNB even more difficult.

 

The fact that risk aversion has been rising suggests CHF demand will remain firm in the short term.

 

CHF demand is occurring in the face of speculation of a shift in FX stance. Although the SNB has not hinted at any change in the level of the EUR/CHF floor, market speculation that the SNB will move it higher, possibly to around 1.30 from 1.20, has intensified.

 

The problem for the SNB is that the CHF is substantially overvalued and this in turn is fuelling persistent deflationary risks as reflected in six straight months of declining CPI. Against this background it would not be surprising if the EUR/CHF floor is lifted.

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After last week end's election in France, where the incumbent Sarkozy finished poorly, many were expecting the euro to weaken. Such was not the case, and to the chagrin of a market loaded with shorts, the euro worked higher. Uncertainty, something markets hate, remains, as we work our way to the final May 6th date for the run-off election between Sarkozy, and the socialist Hollande.

There will be a two hour debate May 2nd, which may be quite important for Sarkozy. He is reputed to be a superior debater so this may decide the election outcome.

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As promised, here's my theory on what has been holding up the EURO.

The Swiss Frank. The SNB has imposed artificial support for the eur/chf @12000.

 

If eur/chf is trading @12000 and usd/chf is trading @9100 then eur/usd will trade @xxxxx

 

I have not figured out what the actual correlation should be, but you get the idea.

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What we can do right now is to long as much as possible with super high leverage. I'm doing 500:1. No need stop loss. SNB is our stop loss, say at 10 pips below 1.2000. Just be very very very patient & carry trade overnite until something happens.

 

I think SNB will not intervene so quickly or they may be viewed as inconsistent. Jordan also needs some time to settle down in his 'new' position. So just long & carry.

 

Perhaps we have to wait till Sept 15th, 2012. A long long way to go. But the carry trade ain't bad... Problem is many brokers knows what we all are doing & slash swap rates for long posn. Some brokers even have -ve interest rates for long positions!!!

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Next policy meeting will be on 14 June..longed @ 1.2014 earlier but can add more if 1.20 is seen...tp:1.2080, sl:1.1970

 

i know eur/chf is very slow...but less risky anyway...closing 2/3@1.2054 and moving stop to 1.2030...rinse and repeat

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I know its reached a high of 1.2451, but I am still pretty bullish on the pair. Moreover, even the USD/CHF is worthwhile to keep an eye on due to the weakening Swiss currency. If the exchange rate were to fall to 0.9290 in the coming week, it would good time to buy the pair. :cool:

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Usd/Chf is hard to guess at this time with a little bearish sign. But overall, in current scenario, I would prefer to hold at this time and wait for breakout.

 

I know its reached a high of 1.2451, but I am still pretty bullish on the pair. Moreover, even the USD/CHF is worthwhile to keep an eye on due to the weakening Swiss currency. If the exchange rate were to fall to 0.9290 in the coming week, it would good time to buy the pair. :cool:

 

What makes u think it is bullish? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis?

If it falls below 0.9275, it will be most probably touch next support level.

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Usd/Chf is hard to guess at this time with a little bearish sign. But overall, in current scenario, I would prefer to hold at this time and wait for breakout.

 

 

 

What makes u think it is bullish? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis?

If it falls below 0.9275, it will be most probably touch next support level.

 

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis. I mean the Swiss central bank enacted a price floor on the currency pair at the 1.20 level. As for the technical analysis, it is plain and simple to see the chart action with the surges that the exchange rate has been experiencing.

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Hello Everyone,

This week one of the Trade setups that we have for you is a Euro cross- EUR/CHF. This trade can be held for a few days or untill the condition is met.

EURCHF, has been on bullish run and currently tested intermediate strength resistance. Price action indicates Bulls to hold on, and we bank to ride them.

Scenario 1

Long Entry 1(1.23715 – 1.23525)

TP 1 (1.23985) ,TP2 (1.24690), SL(1.23025)

If you decide to take this trade let us know how it worked out for you.

Best

TradeCuts.

5aa711c850eaa_eurchf10thmar.jpg.01be5c77fa1c3ac95e7c2c896cc96b8b.jpg

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I am an Australian journalist looking to speak to FX traders who made or lost money on the CHF mess in Switzerland. If you or someone you know were willing to speak with me briefly, my email is jkehoe@afr.com.au . Thank you.

 

 

I know its reached a high of 1.2451, but I am still pretty bullish on the pair. Moreover, even the USD/CHF is worthwhile to keep an eye on due to the weakening Swiss currency. If the exchange rate were to fall to 0.9290 in the coming week, it would good time to buy the pair. :cool:

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I am an Australian journalist looking to speak to FX traders who made or lost money on the CHF mess in Switzerland. If you or someone you know were willing to speak with me briefly, my email is jkehoe@afr.com.au . Thank you.

 

It would be really interesting to read about their cases, was they successful at claiming their money back from a broker, was there any support from regulators on this issue, etc.

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