[candlesticks] Predict

[mistake 10]

Hello everybody

Would anyone can explain me whats the best indicator/s to predict next candle(intraday)?

Candlestick patterns, Bollinger and RSI are those i found them usefull.

Has anyone any experiment on this?

[Tams 20]

Hello everybody

Would anyone can explain me whats the best indicator/s to predict next candle(intraday)?

Candlestick patterns, Bollinger and RSI are those i found them usefull.

Has anyone any experiment on this?

 

the best "predictor" indicator is volume.

 

 

 

see more discussions here:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/price-volume-relationship-6320.html

[clmacdougall 11]

Tams, does Spydertraders /Jack Hershey's method work for you? I've read through it a couple of times and my doubts lie in its use of time based price bars, the removal of the ETH from it's study parameters and the daily "U" shaped volume pattern that occurs in the RTH of the ES everyday no matter what and as such doesn't that diminish the value of the volume gaussian?

Please let us know if it has predictive power as a complete study. Thank you

[Tams 20]

Tams, does Spydertraders /Jack Hershey's method work for you? I've read through it a couple of times and my doubts lie in its use of time based price bars, the removal of the ETH from it's study parameters and the daily "U" shaped volume pattern that occurs in the RTH of the ES everyday no matter what and as such doesn't that diminish the value of the volume gaussian?

Please let us know if it has predictive power as a complete study. Thank you

 

a method that creates doubts in your mind will never work for you, even if it is beneficial to others.

 

there are more than one way to skin a cat.

it is more productive to seek a method or style of trading that brings comfort and assurance to your mind.

 

 

p.s. regarding the daily "U" shape, I don't think you have got the story correct. Look up "pace" in the thread.

Edited May 19, 2011 by Tams

[clmacdougall 11]

With all due respect Tams, you are pointing this newb in the direction of a methodology that prides itself in "iterative learning". It doesn't tell him to question, but to repeat the learning process if things aren't working out. So with that in mind it seems to me that your non answer concerning my simple question of whether the predictive method works or not is, "no."

You are having to twist the methodology in order to make it somewhat reliable or predictive. Skinning this cat any other way is not an option to it's practitioners and can lead a newb on a bad bunny trail. Just my opinion.

[mistake 10]

Perhaps i had choose bad way to ask my question as my weak English or something made you these thoughts guys.

when we talk about prediction(that we have it often & usually deny it) , some routin sentences come out, for ex. : imposible to predict 100% ....

We know all of them and recognize Probability rules. ( i swear )

but, notice that we can find or PERSONALIZE or Combain some Indicators to have a better view on market future style.

Think about Bollinger+RSI , these are work better than CCI+Bollinger on this issue obviously.

So this thread presents to share these beholds.

Help to discover better ideas through it.

(and it's necessary to say that i work in Forex only ,no shares)

[Tams 20]

With all due respect Tams, you are pointing this newb in the direction of a methodology that prides itself in "iterative learning". It doesn't tell him to question, but to repeat the learning process if things aren't working out. So with that in mind it seems to me that your non answer concerning my simple question of whether the predictive method works or not is, "no."

You are having to twist the methodology in order to make it somewhat reliable or predictive. Skinning this cat any other way is not an option to it's practitioners and can lead a newb on a bad bunny trail. Just my opinion.

 

many people felt your pain too.

[clmacdougall 11]

many people felt your pain too.

 

Say it ain't so Tams!!

After all you've posted on TL, you're going to hang your hat on this method? Come on are you serious?

With that being said I don't wish to be rude. If this structures the market into a tradeable form for you then it's good. The creation of a tradeable structure is the essence of successful trading as far as I'm concerned, if you find it in this method then great!

Actually we're all kind of catching the coattails of truth and making a few bucks without really understanding why it works anyway.

[Tams 20]

... it seems to me that your non answer concerning my simple question of whether the predictive method works or not is, "no."

....

 

it seems to me that you already have the answer before you even asked the question.

[clmacdougall 11]

Sorry Tams, I just read you wrong. My mistake!!

[Tams 20]

With all due respect... So with that in mind it seems to me that your non answer concerning my simple question of ....

 

Let's be very clear, that was neither a simple question, nor an intelligent one.

 

what if I say "yes"?

 

what if I say "no"?

 

where does that lead you?

 

when you have a preconceived answer before you even asked the question, why ask?

[clmacdougall 11]

Let's be very clear, that was neither a simple question, nor an intelligent one.

 

what if I say "yes"?

 

what if I say "no"?

 

where does that lead you?

 

when you have a preconceived answer before you even asked the question, why ask?

 

Tams, the question was very simple. " Does the method work for you?" Granted that you don't have to answer it, but the question was still a simple one. As to it's intelligence, it was just simple curiousity.

[Tams 20]

Tams, the question was very simple. " Does the method work for you?" Granted that you don't have to answer it, but the question was still a simple one. As to it's intelligence, it was just simple curiousity.

 

It is either you are naive, or you think that I am naive.

 

tell me, what would an answer lead you? (either a yes or no answer)

 

 

why are you twisting and evading and manipulating and avoiding my question ???

[clmacdougall 11]

It is either you are naive, or you think that I am naive.

 

tell me, what would an answer lead you? (either a yes or no answer)

 

 

why are you twisting and evading and manipulating and avoiding my question ???

 

As to where your opinion on the predictive abitities of Hersheys structuring of the markets would have lead myself or others:

 

A) If your answer was a yes, that you believed in it's predictive abilities, you could have helped others to see why in your opinion it was valid in the face of opposing ideas for reasons that others don't yet recognize.

 

B) If your answer was a no, showing that you didn't believe in it's predictive abilities than those of us who thought the same way would realize there was no further discussion necessary to discover if our opinions might not be right.

 

Tams,calm down! Don't take these forums too seriously. To degrade others as being "naive.....not intelligent....manipulative.....evasive" just because we either don't agree or don't see eye to eye has no place in a "laboratory" and that's what TL is right?

[Tams 20]

...

Tams,calm down! Don't take these forums too seriously. To degrade others as being "naive.....not intelligent....manipulative.....evasive" just because we either don't agree or don't see eye to eye has no place in a "laboratory" and that's what TL is right?

 

you were being evasive... LOL

[Tams 20]

As to where your opinion on the predictive abitities of Hersheys structuring of the markets would have lead myself or others:

 

A) If your answer was a yes, that you believed in it's predictive abilities, you could have helped others to see why in your opinion it was valid in the face of opposing ideas for reasons that others don't yet recognize.

 

getting me to say a yes answer has no correlation to you getting to the salvation.

You still have the same doubts you have, even if the heaven opens up to you.

all the explanations are in the thread. You can get it from the horse' mouth.

if you have specific questions, post the specific question in the thread. Don't beat around the bush.

 

B) If your answer was a no, showing that you didn't believe in it's predictive abilities than those of us who thought the same way would realize there was no further discussion necessary to discover if our opinions might not be right.

 

that's a very imaginative manipulation.

if you for a moment think that is even a remote possibility, why bother to ask the question at all? It leads to nowhere.

Edited May 21, 2011 by Tams

[clmacdougall 11]

Tams, I asked the question to you because from the outset of Spydertraders thread they've either ignored or made no room for discussion with those who oppose its "ïterative" methodology.

I thought you might be able to explain why the concerns of others were misguided concerning this price/volume "Gaussian" understanding of market structure.

The" horses mouth" isn't saying much and since you seem like you've run around the track a few times you're the closest thing to a horse I've got to talk to about this method you're obviously aware of.

[Tams 20]

Tams, I asked the question to you because from the outset of Spydertraders thread they've either ignored or made no room for discussion with those who oppose its "ïterative" methodology.

I thought you might be able to explain why the concerns of others were misguided concerning this price/volume "Gaussian" understanding of market structure.

The" horses mouth" isn't saying much and since you seem like you've run around the track a few times you're the closest thing to a horse I've got to talk to about this method you're obviously aware of.

 

I don't think the culture was ever to ignore or made no room for discussion.

 

The PV thread is an instructional thread, not a gloves-off debate thread. I can see why disruptions are not encouraged. But you are free to start a new thread to expound on your theory (or anti-theory). SpyderTrader proposed his theory with explanations and charts and diagrams. If you found it to be a fraud, you should post a few screen shots to dispute the theory.

[joshdance 10]

Hello everybody

Would anyone can explain me whats the best indicator/s to predict next candle(intraday)?

Candlestick patterns, Bollinger and RSI are those i found them usefull.

Has anyone any experiment on this?

 

How about looking at the context, volume trends, and what the price bars themselves are telling you about where the market wants to go, based on what it has done recently? Anything can change at any moment so prediction is not possible, but use this information, combine it with the current market "mood" (is volume increasing right now, after it moves is there follow through, is the market indecisive, whipping back and forth, or has it established a clear direction..?). This is not easy, and I am still struggling with being able to have confidence in my read on the market, though it is right more often than not. I believe it takes time, experience, a decent working model of how the market moves, and even then it is still a challenge at times I'm sure.

[Tradewinds 12]

Do you use any kind of support and resistance analysis? Also, do you notice places where the price is "consolidating"?

I base my decisions on what I would call momentum. I'm looking for momentum to slow down at peaks and bottoms. But then there needs to be confirmation of the reversal. If that doesn't happen, I assume another cycle of the same direction is going to happen. But it gets more complicated than that.

There are trends within trends, and so sometimes you get "faked out". Why does a trend seem like it's going to end, and then keep going? I believe that the market has a tendency to exhaust the current cycle before it turns. But here is the problem, is the market exhausting a short, medium, or long term cycle? That's what catches people "off guard".

What I find interesting, is that the theme of "Trends within Trends" seems to be common among different trading strategies. I see these trends within trends as overlapping market cycles.

I don't know of any indicator that can Identify "Trends within Trends". That's why people watch different time frame charts, or identify small, medium and large trends on the same time frame chart. People trading all kinds of different indicators have that in common.

So if you have found a few indicators that you like, and work for you, but you feel like you need something more, stop searching for the ultimate indicator, and start looking at other pieces to the puzzle.

If you look at the thread that Tams suggested, you see that it breaks things down into:

• Fastest
  
• Medium Fast - Traverse
  
• Slowest - Channel
  

 

Other people will talk about:

 

• Daily - support and resistance levels
  
• Weekly - support and resistance levels
  
• Monthly - support and resistance levels
  

 

Other people will talk about:

 

• 50 period MA
  
• 80 period MA
  
• 120 period MA
  

 

Other people will talk about:

 

• 15 Minute Chart
  
• 4 hour chart
  
• Daily Chart
  

 

It's all the same basic concept. You can search for the perfect indicator forever, but until you have a method for understanding market behavior, chances are you won't get any better at trading.

[Tradewinds 12]

Here is a blog post that I find very interesting:

 

For Daytraders Only: the TICKQ - Traders Laboratory Forums

[joshdance 10]

Here is a blog post that I find very interesting:

 

For Daytraders Only: the TICKQ - Traders Laboratory Forums

 

In what way tradewinds? I know some traders who swear by tick and tickq and other breadth indicators, but if simple tick divergence was really "predictive" by any stretch, it wouldn't really be an edge at all would it? I don't trade the indices much, but I would suppose that if I did I would want to use tick as another source of input to give some confirmation.

[Tradewinds 12]

In what way tradewinds? I know some traders who swear by tick and tickq and other breadth indicators, but if simple tick divergence was really "predictive" by any stretch, it wouldn't really be an edge at all would it? I don't trade the indices much, but I would suppose that if I did I would want to use tick as another source of input to give some confirmation.

 

I rely on the NYSE TICK, NYSE Advancers/Decliners and NYSE Up Volume/Down Volume as the foundation to my strategy. Those 3 are 99% of my decision making. Without the information from those inputs, I probably would just give up on trading.

 

I apologize for not giving an explanation for how I use those inputs, but I'm paranoid about sharing the details of my "hard earned" knowledge. I'm just seeing how "close to the edge" I can get without actually divulging my "secrets". :rofl:

[joshdance 10]

I rely on the NYSE TICK, NYSE Advancers/Decliners and NYSE Up Volume/Down Volume as the foundation to my strategy. Those 3 are 99% of my decision making. Without the information from those inputs, I probably would just give up on trading.

 

I apologize for not giving an explanation for how I use those inputs, but I'm paranoid about sharing the details of my "hard earned" knowledge. I'm just seeing how "close to the edge" I can get without actually divulging my "secrets". :rofl:

 

Understood and not really asking anyway, as I don't trade these. I can see how they are very valuable pieces of information. I simply meant that just trading a tick divergence alone is bound to fail, but then again so is anything else I suppose taken on its own without context or other supporting data to make a good decision.

[marty221 10]

I have just finished the new and revised course in a school ( I don't know if I can say ) The theme that they teach is price/ price/ price and it is king. I am able to see the turning points and am learning to predict the profit points and have bought this book called "reading price charts bar by bar". I plan to improve the quality of the trades that I make. It probably not hurt you as you are having problems already.

 

I started trading before I really knew what I was doing and lost alot of money. It really scares me I can predict where and when the price turns and how long it will stay in the trend. There will be times that it will do something different so as he said," put in a tight stop but not too tight." I have not gotten the book yet but I do belive it can help you with that. It would be interesteing if when you do read it to find out if it did help..