Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[gosu 10]

indicies are in vdu/centering just outside the day's BO area..

 

a lack of a failure to BO on the day means i'll look to sideline on this ST p2 trade because i am uncertain which way the centering will be resolved....

 

therefore, stop at 2531.75....stepping out for a quick lunch

[roztom 10]

Got scale at 44.75 from my 42.50... did not add on rotation to 40.75..I still wanted to see them tick 40.50 for me to average down or bail...

 

Hsve stop B/E in case we rotate - target 47.75 3 ticks in front of CHVN 1348.50..

 

I've been getting nicked lately - yesterday my long target ended up being HOD, today I missed short target by 2 ticks...

 

I have stop B/E if it takes me out that is fine... lack of depth of rotation & no stops taken @ 40.50 is strength.. IMHO...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: I only have 2/3 of my unit on since my trade location was close to my targets... I am going for the CHVN target but if I were long from a better location with a full package on I would be going for the 1350 - 52ish level today for my final target but I will be fine with whatever Mr. Market shares with me...

 

FLAT: 1344.25 last... @3:11cst... I squeezed a little out of the turnip...

Edited February 7, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

s&p cash high so far 1349 ... it may try one more point, but 5 points higher may be pushing it

[gosu 10]

indicies are in vdu/centering just outside the day's BO area..

 

a lack of a failure to BO on the day means i'll look to sideline on this ST p2 trade because i am uncertain which way the centering will be resolved....

 

therefore, stop at 2531.75....stepping out for a quick lunch

 

Missed the close. Stopped out and sidelined.

 

This is what I KNOW: ST is in lateral modus.

[roztom 10]

Good Morning: ES High CHVN 1348.50 Target from yesterday hit in GLobex. CLVN Target 1352.50 ish area... CHVN out there 1362.25. Today Targets: 48.50 - 52.50.

 

We are up in the thin air so these Cumulative Nodes are just reference points for the auction.. Must use intraday development to manage trade location. IMHO.

 

I'm curious what kind of day you think we will have after yesterday's rejection of the CLVN 1331.00.. and strong drive up...

 

Narrow Range Rest Day.. Trade/Rotate both sides/Chop?

 

Continuation up to 1352.00 ish area..?

 

Good Trading To All..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nothing major has happened overnight. It has balanced a little higher than yesterday RTH in a tight range. In context, I would say that this is anticipatory of good news from Europe. 1352.50 is my main reference above and 1340.50 below. News is news so anything can happen. They agree and it could go up, they delay and it could plummet. In the meantime I expect tests both sides and then maybe further balancing. One point I'd make(and I'm not suggesting this will be the case here or otherwise) is that highs are never made on poor news. Anyway, here's a visual:-

 

[roztom 10]

I'm going to post ratioanle for trade I took off open: Since I could not post as taken, feel free to discount this if you need to... I still am managing position..

 

This relates to reading MP/VP..

 

1. Went Long: Why? VPOC 42.50, GBX Low 42.50, Yest Closing Swing Low 43.00. Opened inside yesterdays range..Exoect test of both sides of OR tested numbers referenced took long.

2. Scaled yesterdays high... and was targeting CHVN 48.50 47.75 target for next scale...

DVPOC shift up no follow thru - churning...flat - looking for rotation to repositon... long..so far.

 

This I believe is most relevant to MP/VP... Other than a few here I don't know if I should post this if others aren't using the tool..

 

LEt me know..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Makes sense to me Tom. I think that it's useful so long as it's current and explained well. Idea of the thread is to post anything current about either trades or ideas for market or anything and to explain it. It's not a thread continually posting long x, exited y. I don't think that's particularly useful. The other thing I would say is if anyone wants to (yeah right) post trades you didn't take or legitimately took and didn't work out -and why.

[roztom 10]

I will be cuttung down on my posts since I really do question what I posts has value as a learning tool..which is why I am here..not to mention to learn also..

 

I have repositioned long: against Developing Low Vol notch 1345.75 but the better one is 1344.75...If you look at Profile there is a sharper Low VOl node there and there are stops resting so it can also get there... just possibilities...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit positioned as posted..stopped out.. BReak was news driven, have to see how market rebalances..

Edited February 8, 2012 by roztom

[gosu 10]

ST p2 retrace has begun

[TheNegotiator 13]

I will be cuttung down on my posts since I really do question what I posts has value as a learning tool..which is why I am here..not to mention to learn also..

 

I have repositioned long: against Developing Low Vol notch 1345.75 but the better one is 1344.75...If you look at Profile there is a sharper Low VOl node there and there are stops resting so it can also get there... just possibilities...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

It's up to you of course, but the the idea really revolves around talking about the markets currently to allow people to understand them better and have an 'enriched' experience for their screentime.

 

If Gladwell reckons it takes 10,000 hrs to become an expert, I'd double that for many retail traders sitting there on their own with no peer group!!

[roztom 10]

Here we go:

 

Market broke to IBL and tested LOD Held... What is market saying? TO me market says since this was News related it was a flush... In addition no volume down there..

 

DVPOC shifted down..this will either shut off selling OR confirm additional... I repositioned long...same targets on upside as prev posted..

 

Managing position...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

RE Down..FLat..when you're wrong, your wrong...

[clmacdougall 11]

Here we go:

 

Market broke to IBL and tested LOD Held... What is market saying? TO me market says since this was News related it was a flush... In addition no volume down there..

 

DVPOC shifted down..this will either shut off selling OR confirm additional... I repositioned long...same targets on upside as prev posted..

 

Managing position...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

RE Down..FLat..when you're wrong, your wrong...

 

Takes a real man to post the truth Tom, keep up the good work.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Taking the last three days for a profile...

 

[BearBullTrading 10]

I will be cuttung down on my posts since I really do question what I posts has value as a learning tool..

 

..

 

Tom

 

I think the way you are currently posting is fine.. (Yours, Josh, Neg8r posts are some of the most useful here)

 

Posting thoughts, rationale, ideas, trades (if you want to) as the market is developing is far more interesting & beneficial than posting a chart with a couple of green arrows way after the event saying...."I bought here.."..

 

Your primary responsability is to yourself, so going forward post what & how You are comfortable with

 

Trade Well....

[roztom 10]

Here is a very aggressive trade I am working right now - stalking..just FYI...not smart unless you are agile..it is countertrend per MP...high risk, etc (depending on your timeframe).

 

We have 50% of yest range at 1338.75, CHVN 1338.00, CLVN 1336.50

Yest IBH 1338.50 and a single at 1338.75... These are just very important areas to observe. If rejected then this "might" be area to reposition with overall trend..

 

I will update but this is one of htose key areas...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Edit: So where might a good target be? Current mid-point and IBL 42.50 - 75ish...

If this is a new balance area we "could" rotate and test where we failed OR we could continue and eat the shorts (do get the wronh idea ) Don't know.. That is my plan on this one... If we get into yesterdays IBH then I will be gone..this is very light given the structure...

 

Edit: 10:46.. We tested the single/IBH and CHVN 1338.00.. I added here and am still long... IF we take this out I will be gone...and we certianly can... As you know I am clueless on any specific trade..but here is some context:

 

Yester day the buyers fell all over themselves to buy they were agressive down below off the 1331.00 CLVN and also right here at the IBH...soooooo...where do you think they "might" consider the market "on sale" ? I suggest it "might" be right here...

 

This is just an area of interest... it is also high risk but I just trade it as I see it and have to be willing to be wrong - I can do that as well as anyone... My job - analyze, create hypothesis - execute... (Hopefully I'm not the one executed :helloooo:

 

Tom

Edited February 8, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

waiting for a vpoc shift before committing perhaps. still a little way off that though.

[roztom 10]

UPdate: I am holding a long positon off that key area posted..here is the plan :

 

1. I have no idea if the OTF will take this market back up this afternoon or not.. If this is truly the beginning of something more down we "could" rotate to the mid-pont & IBL the scene of the crime... I will scale there and then consider scalping around rotations which I will not post on - too manic OR just hold the last 1/3 for a potential Neutral Day... It will depend on how we behave on the retracement... that might be all it does - no clue right now...

 

Helmet on...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

I captured and uploaded this about an hour ago to screencast (11:31am), and it dipped below a little, but could this be a test of post-NFP peak volume before moving up higher? Honestly the volume isn't quite convincing at the moment, but there has been pretty heavy buying since the low so we'll see.

 

I see that N posted a 3 day profile, this is basically the same thing.

[roztom 10]

I took my scale at 42.50 IBL as prev posted... now working on knitting..

 

 

While we have a double distribution here & according to MP theory we "should" play rotations here from short side (which is why I scaled) I am also putting this in context of what the market is trying to do (GO UP) in the larger timeframe..

 

ALso we tested the key areas as previously posted - soooo Is this the right position to be long here holding for rotation into the IB and potential move to upside?

 

OR is this all it has and the rotation is over?

 

OR will we just rotate around the lower Distribution/Balance Area and go nowhere?

 

 

When I think of this I just know these are the potential outcomes - that is as far as it goes...after all that is why they call it "speculation" = RIGHT? :missy:

 

I hope this is helpful and some of you may see it completely differently.. I hope you will post your hypothesis and what you think would tell us what is next...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

EDIt: I meant to add: What would have to happen for the tide to shift to the long side? What road blocks are right here?

IBL/Low VOl Node created on break around 1343.00 also IBL.. Rotation up into OR & Take out open - among others..so this is a critical area to see who will win... - just my read..as off 11:59cst

Edited February 8, 2012 by roztom

[gosu 10]

ST p2 retrace has begun

 

 

washed this trade...gave back some nice profits...

 

back into lateral

[roztom 10]

washed this trade...gave back some nice profits...

 

back into lateral

 

Gosu: Would you also mind posting "why" you are taking a position... I do not follow your market but technicals are just about always the same.. we might all benifit from it.. the trades don't help us much without the context around them, IMHO.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

Gosu: Would you also mid posting "why" you are taking a position... I do not follow your market but technicals are just about always the same..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Hi Tom,

 

Sorry for my short hand...i've been playing to position for the ST p2 since last week on the nq...a hold more than one RTH session

 

this morning's reversal looked like a good start...and the retrace of it was nondom...which is a hold for me...but the slow grinding moves are the trickiest and a higher low is now in on the 60m...so wash for now

hth

 

 

i've got this as a p3 here on the day....back in short for at least a partial resumption and monitoring for a failure to traverse now...

Edited February 8, 2012 by gosu

[roztom 10]

...i've been playing to position for the ST p2

 

Tx..Could you explain what that is and what kind of analysis you use to identify locations, etc... Indicator based, Charts, etc?

 

Tx,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

EDIt: I meant to add: What would have to happen for the tide to shift to the long side? What road blocks are right here?

IBL/Low VOl Node created on break around 1343.00 also IBL.. Rotation up into OR & Take out open - among others..so this is a critical area to see who will win... - just my read..as off 11:59cst

 

Tom, I think the tide has already shifted to the long side. If you watch delta, at 11:20-11:30EST look how the buying took over. One final wash at 11:43 and it was official, IMO, particularly as here delta stayed very positive -- in other words, on the wash, it was a good mix of market buying and market selling. IMO we have seen the low of the day. Buyers happy to buy this drift higher, no waiting for retracements. TICKs healthy, delta steadily rising. If they will buy with the volume they did at 12:19, at 1341, why would they not buy again there? Who knows, but that's my take. It's time for a pullback here somewhere I would think, but I do not see it yet.