Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Sorry forgot to remind that 10am fig ISM non-Man is due.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nice the way it's reacting to 64's so far today.

[TheDude 10]

I'm not saying anyone's trade will be wrong, just not to automatically assume that low volume means a lack of conviction. I don't look at it as conviction anymore, sharp moves are more driven by need and reaction than conviction.

 

 

extended rallies will often show both low volume and low volatility. declines are usually on high volatility. this can be seen through history - way before the first computer was used to trade.

 

this is partly due to the long only nature of a lot of participants.

 

 

talking about the long term time frames, not intraday

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well NFP came out higher and unemployment lower, but the previous figs had revisionslower and higher respectively. The figure also is being suggested to being high due to seasonal blah blah blah. What matters though is what the market does do. In my experience, it's best to not second guess it. See what actually happens. As much as some people wanna sell off that knowledge, what about the likelihood of QE3 if jobs don't improve fast? What would QE3 do for price?

 

Good luck and see what happens!

[joshdance 10]

Took only a little out today N, how was your day?

 

Talk about a market in balance, this is the weekly:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yup, pretty balanced. I only took a short at 73 to 69.50 today based on OD type. That was it for me though.

[joshdance 10]

Liking this 5 point range after the 15 point globex move N?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good morning everyone! Gap close attempt and failure at 81's has me looking above today. Tested well higher after Spanish did well with their bond auction earlier. But Retail Sales has put a bit of a dampener on the mood. On balance, I'd expect tests in both directions with a bias higher. Obviously that could change on open if we bolt in one direction. Despite the small ranges recently, there are still some decent moves to be taken so long as you aren't expecting 20 odd points!(by decent I mean fit into expected behaviour).

 

Anyway, here's my chart for a quick peak. Good luck!

 

[joshdance 10]

Thanks N -- hope your trading so far this year has been what you expect! These low ranges have me bored out of my mind, but the moves themselves have for the most part been pretty well behaved. Thanks for the chart buddy, hope your day is grand!

[TheNegotiator 13]

How did you get on yesterday Josh? I didn't trade the 86.25 the first time. Nor the 81's took the 87's trade(less a tick) for 3.5 and that was it.

[joshdance 10]

How did you get on yesterday Josh? I didn't trade the 86.25 the first time. Nor the 81's took the 87's trade(less a tick) for 3.5 and that was it.

 

I was down -0.75 at the end of the day .. tried an early short that did not work out, and I bought 84s but did not get much out of it...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I was down -0.75 at the end of the day .. tried an early short that did not work out, and I bought 84s but did not get much out of it...

 

Why did you buy at 84 if you don't mind me asking?

[TheNegotiator 13]

They don't want those 85's to go I reckon.

[joshdance 10]

Why did you buy at 84 if you don't mind me asking?

 

I bought early -- the real volume confirmation was on the drop to 82 .. I was just a bit early, but good volume support even at 84.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Move completed as I was doing picture!!!Damn it. lol.

 

Here it is either way tho. Just a shame I was distracted at 89.50.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I bought early -- the real volume confirmation was on the drop to 82 .. I was just a bit early, but good volume support even at 84.

 

I was really asking if you had a reason for buying 84's specifically, other than the current activity. What determined the fact that you wanted to buy at that price?

[joshdance 10]

Sorry you were distracted! What is "OTD" on your chart?

[joshdance 10]

I was really asking if you had a reason for buying 84's specifically, other than the current activity. What determined the fact that you wanted to buy at that price?

 

I can't remember all the details, but basically we sold off methodically, then found good support, then a nice push back up. 84 was somewhere near the 50% and I liked what I saw, my premise was a push up to 90s, IIRC.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Ah okay.

 

OTD = Open-Test-Drive

[joshdance 10]

Ah okay.

 

OTD = Open-Test-Drive

 

Thanks, I get my abbreviations confused sometimes

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lol. No worries!

 

Drew this fibo from high to 80.75 on a different chart just before 2nd push on 86.50.

 

Funny how things line up before they actually happen...

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's been struggling at that 85 o/n low for 25mins now. Next interesting price will likely be the mid-point I'd imagine.

[joshdance 10]

It's been struggling at that 85 o/n low for 25mins now. Next interesting price will likely be the mid-point I'd imagine.

 

I got short 84.50 about 20 mins ago, looking for retest of the low, or new lows would be even better (78)

[TheNegotiator 13]

I forgot to mention that given opening type(regardless of type, what it actually did), there could be a further move lower at some point as it was quite confident(and responsive) in its selling. That is of course unless we get above say 88.25(ideally wouldn't take 86.75).

[TheNegotiator 13]

I got short 84.50 about 20 mins ago, looking for retest of the low, or new lows would be even better (78)

 

Just stick to your plan stopwise is all I'd say. If I trade at a price looking for a reaction and it doesn't happen, I have to ask the question why not. Yes it could hover then tip again, but also, it hit a decent initial target in that main move down and is now looking for more sellers. If it can't find them here, it might need to look a bit higher.

 

Nothing certain, just working through the logic.