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MadMarketScientist

Forget Gold ... Are You on the Silver Bullet Train?

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I was just taking a look back at what has happened in Gold over the past few years to see if I could find a reference for what Silver may be doing. Thought I'd share the comparison of a sharp run up and decline in Gold back in '06. It's not the exact same thing, but I really think that it is worth taking note of because of the similarities in dynamics.

 

Trend coupled with growing confidence in price rising strongly moved the markets up initially. A period of consolidation followed. A final minor dip with a test of short term balance high preceded a 'close your eyes and buy' rally where each market had very little time to establish any accepted prices on the way up. So when the markets reversed, there was nothing much to slow them down.

 

You can say markets were over long, you can point to artificial intervention by underlying supply being 'controlled'. However you want to look at it, it looks like both metals got way ahead of themselves, but look where gold is now...

 

Take a look at the chart and see what you think.

GOLDSILVER.thumb.jpg.2b7066e9ab2a6db5424e9d4764c5ad86.jpg

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Ok here we go with QE3 ... everyone ready to ride this rocket up again?

 

With a few unexpected words, Ben Bernanke triggered a jump in the market. Stocks shot higher Wednesday as the Federal Reserve chairman spelled out ways that the central bank might act to stimulate the U.S. economy if the threat of deflation, or falling prices, re-emerges. Bernanke's remarks were far from an actual promise for more economic stimulus, but markets reacted immediately nonetheless. The Dow Jones industrial average nearly doubled its morning gains in ten minutes, and the dollar and U.S. government bond prices fell as investors shed lower-risk assets.

 

Stocks jump as Bernanke details possible stimulus: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

 

MMS

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I don't reckon so for now. I think he was just giving markets what they wanted to hear. I really don't think BB wants to pump more stimulus into the US right now(surely?!?). Markets are still susceptible though as lots of things are uncertain. So if he said explicitly "We won't do QE3" there would probably be a bit of panic.

 

Silver looked to be pretty ballistic today btw. It does still look like it's in a bracket though and it should test it very soon. So we'll see whether it's going to start a new and stronger leg up.

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Ok here we go with QE3 ... everyone ready to ride this rocket up again?

 

 

 

Stocks jump as Bernanke details possible stimulus: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money

 

MMS

 

US election in less than 18 months...

 

they will keep pumping money into the economy until it looks good.

let the grandchildren's grandchildren worry about repayment,

enjoy the ride now.

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