What Happens Next? Doom? Gloom? Boom?

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Thanks for the analysis Phil.

 

As a quick reply to some of the comments above, I'm onboard and basically agree that if you're daytrading you really don't need to know or try to predict the bigger picture and it can end up causing more harm than good in your trading.

 

Frequently after a day of trading people will ask me how the market did today and I simply have no clue. Even if it's a market I traded I honestly don't know if it was really up or down since I was trading the intraday movement and not paying attention much. Usually I'll pull out my iPhone and go to the stock app and look for myself at the daily/weekly to get a handle on the bigger context. So I've learned not to even think about it with my daytrading decisions.

 

However, I do think it has a place. I do have long term investments. I have mutual funds. I do care about the longer/bigger picture. While it doesn't impact my daytrades I do have to concern myself with the longer term and try to make moves if any. There's 401K's, college plans, and funds. Not to mention if you own a home, or have a job you care very much about what comes next on the big picture.

 

I think these two work independently of each other but I'm not sure I'll ever be able to 100% detach from the "big picture" -- though I agree it's essential you do when trading the small picture intraday.

 

MMS

[Phil-n-Texas 10]

your welcome MMS,

 

i've had all my IRA's etc. in cash as of a.m. 5/5/10 (one day prior to flash crash) when SPX broke near term support set on 4/27/10 the day before (5/4/10)... technicals gave a signal plus i just had a feeling about it.

 

my system for those accounts is pretty simple as i only use SDS/SSO teeter totter and have done pretty well with that. i also have some of the high dividend CEFs / Energy Trust ETF's that have done well.

 

my goal is to eventually get a rotation of high dividend stocks and ETFs where i can draw income from monthly dividend checks just like a salary so to speak...

 

i've got a spread sheet around here somewhere that has it worked out where i can get a check every month based on dividend payout schedule of about 12 high yield stocks and etfs.

 

as for trend analysis, i use the same principles for intraday or longer term... i.e., daily, weekly, monthly timeframes and use a fixed risk allocation money management method that calculates the amount of trading capital to trade based on volatility and risk / reward.

 

additionally, even when scalping the e-mini's i still zoom out when i'm doing my morning prep to look at the bigger picture setups which can tell a lot about the overall bias for the day.

 

anyway, i really enjoy the posts here... lots of good information and exchange of ideas.

 

i see you're the admin here so want to say thanks for all you do here.:applaud:

 

regards,

 

-phil

[daedalus 10]

^^ I'd love to see the dividend payout list. I'm trying to put a portfolio together as well for the first time and kind of wanted to go that route as well.

[Phil-n-Texas 10]

^^ I'd love to see the dividend payout list. I'm trying to put a portfolio together as well for the first time and kind of wanted to go that route as well.

 

ok... here's here's a list 11 of the original 12... can't remember why one dropped off.

 

also, it's been awhile since i visited this so DD is advised.

 

 

and a list of CEFs

 

 

here are some related ariticles i came across...

 

A Poor Man's CEF Portfolio That Performs -- Seeking Alpha

 

Stocks That Pay Monthly Dividends -- Seeking Alpha

 

i'm going to do some more digging. seems to me there's someone that compiled a scheduled payout list that was pretty informative and helped me find some of those listed above but i haven't been able to locate it yet.

[emg 12]

doomsday is coming! my forecast shows SP500 bottom arounbd 450-550 before spring 2011

[davidwillson 10]

LOL. And that is the $60,000,000 question my friend. Do we have a 2B down with more to go or do we have a test and resume on a big old bull. I think its a 2B down for the grumpy bear. But it will take more than a couple of days to get confirmation either way.

 

 

Short term bull... then expecting them to get spanked into the end of the yea