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Tams

Home Sales Robust

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Property value in Hong Kong has also recovered completely... China and HK are likely to lead the recovery in Asia. Japan is still struggling and will likely take some time before we see any signs of recovery. However, I have been actively looking for property in Tokyo and have seen many investors come and scoop up decent properties with cash. Investors are definitely buying at this stage and properties under $500k are the most popular at the moment.

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I have some experience in this type of thing. When everyone is buying and the media flaunts it....it's time to get out!!!

 

This is also a negative sum game with additional expenses for selling the property. In this game, someone is the winner, someone is the referee and someone is the fool. If you dont know who the fool is, guess what..you're it.

 

India did this type of thing too and now property values are starting to decline from the "Irrational Exuberance" (a term coined by Mr. Greenspan in the past).

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Econoday Report: Housing Starts*June*16,*2009

Housing Starts

 

Highlights

Housing starts in May showed surprising strength-even in the single-family component. Starts rebounded 17.2 percent, following sharp 12.9 percent drop the month before. The May pace of 0.532 million units annualized was down 45.2 percent year-on-year and was above the market projection for 0.500 million units. The rebound in May was led by the multifamily component which posted a 61.7 percent comeback after falling 49.4 percent in April. But the single-family component gained 7.5 percent, following a 3.3 percent rise the month before.

 

By region, the rebound in starts was led by a monthly 28.6 percent surge in the West. Other regions also saw gains with the South up 16.8 percent, the Midwest rising 11.1 percent, and the Midwest gaining 2.0 percent.

 

Permits also made a comeback, gaining 4.0 percent in May after slipping 2.5 percent the month before. The May permit pace of 0.518 million units annualized was down 47.0 percent on a year-ago basis.

 

Markets had expected some rebound in the multifamily component in starts but the increase was notably more than expected. But the really good news was the sizeable rise in the single-family component. This is good news for the green shoots advocates and should provide lift to equities. But before equity markets open in the U.S., we have to get past the industrial production release at 9:15 a.m. ET.

 

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Housing starts in April fell another 12.8 percent to a pace of 0.458 million units annualized-a new record low for a series going back to 1959. The April pace of 0.458 million units annualized was down 54.2 percent year-on-year. April's decrease was led by the multifamily component which plunged 46.1 percent while single-family starts edged up 2.8 percent. Looking ahead, we may see a rebound in multifamily starts pulling up the headline number. But single-family starts are still constrained by heavy supply of unsold homes-which stood at 10.1 months in April for newly constructed homes.

 

Definition

Housing starts measure initial construction of residential units (single-family and multi-family) each month. A rising (falling) trend points to gains (declines) in demand for furniture, home furnishings and appliances.

 

 

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Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. According to the Commerce Department, it takes five months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving average.

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My other buisness is construction and Ill tell you the people who have cash to buy rental properties are the ones doing the buisness in my area. Real people buying homes to live in havent yet stepped in do to the lack of industry left in this country. There are no jobs, good ones any way, and the way this new administration is monkeying with ability for the market to shake out all the weak companies and have a real recovery makes it near impossible. The only way for for things to get better is for us to start manufacturing the products that we use, otherwise we are doomed. Well opinions are like _ss Holes, everybody has one and thats mine. Ill be a buyer in about another 30% to the down side.

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