Trader P/L 2009

[subterfuge 10]

45 pips profit yet again! Best week in a while. Gonna be sad when this roll ends, but as long as it doesn't 'dissapear' for good, i'll be happy, lol.

Gonna go over lots of days price action over the last few years and see how my 'system' would have held up. Gonna be brutal doing that with ninjatrader i feel...Getting curious about the statistical side of trading at the moment/backtesting etc. I dont really know much about it tho, but I think ill have more confidence in my ability if i can get some figures to shout back at me.

Hope everyones done OK today anyway.

[brownsfan019 17]

10-30-09: -$152.50

 

Today was a day where missing a couple trades brought me into the negative. Up till today I was able to miss one here and there and be fine. Not today. Missed nice trade on ZF and Russell. End result is a negative day after that chop on the ZS. Volume is still split on the ZS so I'm ready for everyone to be trading the same contract already.

[bathrobe 10]

Bathrobe do you mind telling us your percentage return for the year so far?

 

I am very curious, as you seem to make a profit the vast majority of the time.

 

I wish I was that consistent!

 

I am profitable 91% of the time, right now on the year I am at roughly 20%

[bathrobe 10]

I was down -12,000 today. I was not going to trade today but in the end and on a day where the es was possibly the easiest it has been to trade in a while, I over-analyzed and looked counter-trend.:crap:

[subterfuge 10]

up 47pips.

I thought today was gonna start the losing streak earlier as I kept going from breakeven to minus 15pips, to near B/E, then to minus 19 etc. Things picked up in the last hour tho and I managed a few decent trades.

 

I spent some time like I planned too, this weekend, just going over random days action from various years, and It did seem that my 'system' would have generally been doing OK on the random days though 2007-2008 that i chose .(Obviously I was just 'backtesting' using my eyes wirthout any fancy software so its hard to be exact) Gave me some confidence tho, combined with my current run.

 

I know that a few weeks is not a long time as far as consistency goes, although I do trade fairly small timeframes and thus can place 20+ trades in a day, so thats roughly 200+ trades to go by so far. It is one of my best runs, considering, as ive said before, I consider myself a Breakeven trader.

 

Where do people stand on the 'market is always changing and so you must keep changing/adapting your method' debate? Doesn't sit right with me, personally. I mean, they say that one must spend months and months developing and testing a method and then taking it live with small stakes and then gradually increasing stakes. However, if they method only 'works' for a few months, is one then expected to not earn any money for the next 6 months whilst they develop and test a whole new method? There surely cant even be that many methods!!? I hope im misunderstanding the concept of the argument, otherwise, trading goes from being hard, to near enough impossible. Have any of you successfully traded the same method for a long time now and dont expect to change anything in the future?

 

Anyway, long post. Would appreciate any answers to my ramblings. I think its good to occasionally break up the blotters with our thoughts along the way.

 

cheers.

Edited November 2, 2009 by subterfuge

[brownsfan019 17]

Where do people stand on the 'market is always changing and so you must keep changing/adapting your method' debate? Doesn't sit right with me, personally. I mean, they say that one must spend months and months developing and testing a method and then taking it live with small stakes and then gradually increasing stakes. However, if they method only 'works' for a few months, is one then expected to not earn any money for the next 6 months whilst they develop and test a whole new method? There surely cant even be that many methods!!? I hope im misunderstanding the concept of the argument, otherwise, trading goes from being hard, to near enough impossible. Have any of you successfully traded the same method for a long time now and dont expect to change anything in the future?

 

My personal feeling is that you can tweak things as you go but the core method can remain in place. For example, I've done more with risk management than entry method in recent memory. Once I decided that I don't need to catch every single move, I focused on decreasing my risk exposure and increasing my profit potential.

 

With that said, there are more ways to trade than we will ever see in our individual travels. If you want a sample, check some of these charts out.

 

I've mentioned this previously and one day I'll do a writeup of it, but I believe that just about any trading methodology can make money if the proper risk protocols are in place. That will mean different things to different systems, but IMO the risk management is much more important than the actual entry system. If you can finetune your risk to get it to a point where you are comfortable, I would think you could trade that profitably for quite awhile with some adjustments along the way.

 

Even something as simple as loading up when you are hot and backing off when you are cold like we briefly touched on previously. From wikipedia on bet sizes in blackjack when card counting:

Ranging bet sizes and the Kelly criterion

 

Between 70% and 90% of the player edge when counting cards comes from placing larger bets when the count is favorable to the player. (The rest of the edge comes from changes to basic strategy based on the count.) [12] A mathematical principle called the Kelly criterion indicates that bet increases should be proportional to the player advantage. In practice, this means that the higher the count, the more a player should bet on each hand in order to take advantage of the player edge. Taken to its ultimate conclusion, the Kelly criterion would demand that a player not bet anything at all when the deck doesn't offer a positive expectation. "Wonging," as shown above, takes advantage of that.

Seems so simple, but how many 'load the boat' when they are hot and back off when things are not in their favor vs. trading the same amount each and every time? By doing something as small as this, you could have huge results to your final p/l. Now your winners become bigger (in theory) and your losers become smaller (in theory).

[brownsfan019 17]

11-2-09: +$351.88

 

I guess I'll take it but not where it should be. Missed a few trades and the p/l shows it. Not the best start to the week.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Tried the ES a little today. Overtraded the ZS when my setups weren't there.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Good to see you posting dinero!

 

ZS is losing the old contract and we got a nice move there. I know you didn't make money at it, but watching the charts should have felt differently today. I was short into that but got out WAY TOO SOON... bummer.

 

Welcome to posting to the thread!

[Dinerotrader 10]

Took another few trades on the ES that worked out.

 

[MidKnight 12]

I've mentioned this previously and one day I'll do a writeup of it, but I believe that just about any trading methodology can make money if the proper risk protocols are in place.

 

Please do, I would most certainly benefit from some insight into this area because I know my risk management and trade management are shocking. The scary thing for me is that I whenever I try to reduce the risk or manage it with a focus on risk reduction, I'm also then decreasing my profits and rather quickly how I'm trading turns into a BE or slightly below zero return. I've virtually given up trying to do this. Insights from the experts would be great.

 

With king regards,

MK

[diablo272 10]

bathrobe, if I may ask, what kind of size are you trading on the ES?

[bathrobe 10]

bathrobe, if I may ask, what kind of size are you trading on the ES?

 

I do not have a set amount I trade each time. Depends on how risky the trade seems to me. Most of my trades are between 50 and a few hundred.

[subterfuge 10]

boat load of trades again. Not really the plan. First 3 trades of the day were all losers(-7, -16, -13). Like yesterday was either B/E or down mist of the day, but i found a good ES trade near the open that put me at +20 pips or so for the day. enough.

[brownsfan019 17]

11-3-09: +$417.50

 

I think I just need to train a monkey to do this and then just pick up the check. If I told you guys what I should be doing you probably wouldn't believe me. I don't know what my problem is here lately w/ focus.

 

If I keep this up I won't have much hair left to pull out...

 

 

 

And yes, I could try to automate it but having a monkey seems like a pretty cool option.

[daedalus 10]

And yes, I could try to automate it but having a monkey seems like a pretty cool option.

Bwahahahaha! :haha::rofl:

[brownsfan019 17]

All kidding aside if I can't get this ship turned in the right direction I'm going to have to do something radically different. It's tough when you are making money to get mad, but I have to kill it on the days where it's there b/c there's plenty of losing/scratch days. I can't make 400 bucks today and lose 200 tomorrow. That's no good.

 

Might be easier to just find someone w/ a ton of money, train them and tell them to send me 50% of the profits.

 

Anyways, not happy w/ results recently if you can't tell.

 

Thanks for reading my rant.

[subterfuge 10]

Well, took a few more trades and my pnl is now more than double what i posted a few minutes ago! another day ill probably carry on trading after a good day and lose it all!

Ill post blotter if anyone partucularly wants to see it....

 

Brownsfan, im slightly confused, mate. You appear to be doing well to me, making money most days. Is the problem just that you feel that you should be doing better? Doing something 'radically different' sounds a bit gung-ho..?... Are you missing out of extra profits by not following your plan??

cheers.

[brownsfan019 17]

Well, took a few more trades and my pnl is now more than double what i posted a few minutes ago! another day ill probably carry on trading after a good day and lose it all!

Ill post blotter if anyone partucularly wants to see it....

 

Brownsfan, im slightly confused, mate. You appear to be doing well to me, making money most days. Is the problem just that you feel that you should be doing better? Doing something 'radically different' sounds a bit gung-ho..?... Are you missing out of extra profits by not following your plan??

cheers.

 

Great questions sub. Here's the deal -- while I'm posting decent profits on most days, I am missing what 'should' have been done by quite a bit on some days.

 

Example: today's perfect p/l: +$1500 // my result: +$417.50 // Difference of $1082.50

 

So on my end I'm looking at what did happen vs. what should have happened and I let over $1000 PER CONTRACT go today. Keep in mind I'm posting from an account trading 1 contract, but that is not all that I trade.

 

I track these results closely and lately a few days have been like today where it's been way off. And if I make $1000 today and lose $200 tomorrow, no biggie. But losing $200 after making $400 is nothing to get excited about.

 

In my end of day review, I see where I should have been vs. actual and if it's close, I can live with it. But days like today are very unacceptable when the system cranked out very nice profits. And easy profits - I think the ZF was the only market w/ a losing trade and that should have turned into a winner...

 

If nothing else, maybe this will give an idea or two for others to use...

 

1) Track your actual p/l vs. your perfect p/l.

2) If you are consistently below your perfect, try to dissect why.

3) If that doesn't work, train a monkey or kid to do it. Basically the same thing.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Got stuck with an open position on the ZS. Good lesson to learn during SIM trading. GCL and GNG are not my bag so I will probably stay away from those for a while.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Dinero - I'm glad you are sim trading and learning these new markets. Being stuck in a position in grains after the RTH close is just asking for a heart attack. So lesson learned, but I have to ask - how late were you trading this that you still had a position this late? I suggested it before and I stick by it - be done w/ this market by Noon EST. I know moves can occur later, but as you've seen that first 1.5 hours provides plenty of movements to make money. I know it doesn't seem like long, but 1.5 hours on the ZS can feel like hours on the indexes w/ the movements.

 

As for the CL, it's not for the faint of heart and requires some practice. It also can move quickly w/o waiting for you. It will take some practice to trade this market and if it's not for you, no biggie - there's plenty of other markets out there.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Dinero - I'm glad you are sim trading and learning these new markets. Being stuck in a position in grains after the RTH close is just asking for a heart attack. So lesson learned, but I have to ask - how late were you trading this that you still had a position this late? I suggested it before and I stick by it - be done w/ this market by Noon EST. I know moves can occur later, but as you've seen that first 1.5 hours provides plenty of movements to make money. I know it doesn't seem like long, but 1.5 hours on the ZS can feel like hours on the indexes w/ the movements.

 

As for the CL, it's not for the faint of heart and requires some practice. It also can move quickly w/o waiting for you. It will take some practice to trade this market and if it's not for you, no biggie - there's plenty of other markets out there.

 

I am not sure what happened. I normally am watching the charts during trades. I took this one and set my stop and profit target and had to leave my computer. I forgot the close time and came back with an open position and from what I can tell my stop should have triggered. Not sure.

 

I couldn't get to my computer until 13 minutes after the ZS open which was very annoying since today was a great trend morning and had some good setups. Your right about just trading the first 1.5 hours of the ZS. I'll try to refrain.

 

On the ES, I am trying a bathrobe approach at trying to look for smaller profit targets and seeing if I can find where on the chart I have the most confidence in price moving my way. Going for 4 ticks profit for some reason has been working many times over for the last 2 days but ultimately, I want to only be taking a few of those trades with many more contracts. My first goal is to just pay for my lunch everyday.

 

If I get my evening currency trades more refined I will try to post these here also.

[bathrobe 10]

Got completely faked out today -9000

[subterfuge 10]

found it tough today, but the winning streak continues(just)! Almost looking forward to the losing day now! lol

[Dinerotrader 10]

Super busy with other stuff today. $243 of that ZS profit was from yesterday's close out of the position after hours. Expecting some reversal moves from the ZS since it was at the top of its range helped out in catching some of the bigger moves.

 

I am only trading 1 contract for all trades.

 

 

Fills question

Do you ever get filled in live trading if you put a limit at the current price on the ES or does that never happen?