Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Soultrader

US Election: Obama Vs McCain

Who will win the US election?  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the US election?

    • Obama will win
      15
    • McCain will win
      3


Recommended Posts

Parker and Stone had to have created two versions. I hope they make the other one available someday.

Yeah, I hear they have episodes on some schedule, but then within a week, can produce new ones based on current events. They could have just bet on Obama winning (and had a backup in case he didn't), or truly created two shows for both results.

 

edit: Then again, they poke fun at his grandmother dying, which was Monday. Damn they're fast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While he's entitled to his opinion, I don't know that I'd call it "very understanding". The Republican experiment of the last forty years hasn't exactly been a screaming success. If Obama's approach is a recipe for failure, then I guess the Founding Fathers got it all wrong to begin with.

 

By recipe for failure, I'm talking about the phenomena based on pandering to hope. The world is very complex and few things move in a straight line, except disappointment. This doesn't mean Obama will fail, I don't think he will. But many people who were wrapped up in the idea of change and hope, could be disappointed in the years to come. Obama did well to sell security and hope to his base (the youth) and that's what won him the election. Bush did the same thing, he energized his base and won both elections. A huge majority of people vote based on emotion, and Obama's way of speaking, and his campaign for change did a great job to spark emotion in his favor. If McCain ran a more disciplined campaign, and had a vision, I firmly believe he would have won. McCain dropped the ball when it came to the economy, so bad that it hid the mistakes Obama made. Obama's organization on the ground was also much better, he even beat the Clintons at their own game. So in a sense, Obama is a political genius.

 

I do think Obama will be a good president. I think his diplomatic approach on foreign affairs will boost our image and get more accomplished with the aide of the EU and UN. I think this will be a true test for Democratic demand-side (or Keynesian) economics. But most importantly, in times such as these, I think Obama will be able to inspire the people. So while many problems will remain unsolved (not because of him, just the nature of the problems) his ability to inspire will allow for many people to love and hate him. I also think he will listen thoroughly to his advisors, and those against him, before making decisions. His nature to stay calm during a crisis (even the WSJ made this claim) will benefit his ability to make sound decisions. So while he may raise Brownsfan taxes, I think the country as a whole will benefit. And hopefully in the next 4-8 years the Republican party will re-establish itself, with a better vision, and hopefully learn from their mistakes.

 

Maybe Karl Rove was right, a war and economic downturn would force most of the partisanship in Washington to end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if one were to agree that Obama "pandered to hope", surely that is preferable to pandering to fear, suspicion, hatred, and intolerance.

 

And if Republicans agree with you that "selling security and hope" to his base is what won him the election, it is unlikely that they will re-establish themselves in four years, or eight, or perhaps ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote name=DbPhoenix;51774

And if Republicans agree with you that "selling security and hope" to his base is what won him the election' date=' it is unlikely that they will re-establish themselves in four years, or eight, or perhaps ever.[/quote]

 

Republicans don't agree with me on that; Plato wrote that in The Republic. I'm sure Machiavelli mentioned it too. It's a common way to gain (or preserve) power over others. You sell security in an insecure world, and people will follow you. Leaders have been doing that for hundreds of years, not just Republicans and Democrats.

Edited by james_gsx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So far, the markets are not thrilled that Obama won.

 

;)

 

Who suggested that? Smart cookie.

 

 

Again, you're smarter than that Chris. Now, everyone knows if McCain won this same thing would have happened and you would have called it a technical move.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8538&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8539&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

I'm starting to sense I'm just going to piss everyone off in this thread. So maybe I should stop posting.

spynov6.jpg.2b15d33da32962c74620d5a0a01933c3.jpg

spyvol.jpg.c568e7ddf0537b74f2ca3b3b16e76f6c.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not that the market is not thrilled about Obama, I think now that the focus on elections is over, now it's back to earnings and economy that takes the front seat again. That means, the crisis ain't over, not that the Obama or McCain will make the crisis go away overnight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if its been mentioned, but markets are statistically more inclined to move higher under democrat presidents than repub. That was first noted in 1950's (analysis of stock market trends was the book I think - a classic) and has been true ever since, or so I've read - haven't actually tested that one.

Markets do climb the "wall of worry".

Torero's right, this was a case of sell on the news. I doubt the markets would have rallied from an low volume overbought condition should McCain have won.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Again, you're smarter than that Chris. Now, everyone knows if McCain won this same thing would have happened and you would have called it a technical move.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8538&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8539&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

I'm starting to sense I'm just going to piss everyone off in this thread. So maybe I should stop posting.

 

I disagree gsx. I honestly believe that if McCain won, the markets rally; and they fail on an Obama win. That's what I thought and I'm sticking to it.

 

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a little off topic but I hope Obama actually addresses the root of what caused this financial problem. I threw something together for my friends and family about what caused this crisis and attached it here. The first half of it is me explaining some things I'm sure you are all aware of, the 2nd part actually digs into the crisis.

Crisis1.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Renko Full Throttle PRO Indicator ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EURUSD 4H Chart: Success rate is 85% in the last 6 years    _______________________________________________________________________________________________
    • Date : 16th December 2019. Events to Look Out For Next Week 16th December 2019.Following a busy week ending with a Conservative victory in the UK election and rising hopes of a potential trade deal between UK and China, attention turns to the BoJ, PBoC and BoE monetary policy meetings next week. However, the developments on the US-China trade front will remain front and centre.Monday – 16 December 2019 Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08-30-09:00) – The prel. November manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.9 from 46.6, despite the signs that the weakness in manufacturing is starting to spread. The European PMI for December meanwhile is expected to released at 47.4. Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK PMI is expected to register an upwards reading to 50.7 after the upwards revision last week at 48.9. Tuesday – 17 December 2019 RBA Meeting’s Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes provides a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence. Employment and Earnings (GBP, 09:30) – Average earnings are expected to have increased by 3.8% in October, above the 3.6% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for October could rise at 3.9% from 3.8%. Wednesday – 18 December 2019 German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. December’s numbers are expected unchanged. Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK inflation is seen unchanged to the downside in December, at 1.5% y/y, the lowest rate seen since November 2016 and after 1.7% in September. The core should be steady as well at 1.7%. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Prices are expected to have eased slightly in December, with overall inflation expected to remain at 1% y/y, while core inflation at 1.3% y/y. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The overall Canadian CPI and core should hold close to target, while the November Core outcome is expected to slip to -0.2% following the 0.4% jump in October. Thursday – 19 December 2019 Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – In the last meeting, BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. BoJ Governor said in his statement that cutting rates further are a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement. Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – BoE should remain on hold until Brexit has been resolved. Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting, however an uTwo of the nine-member MPC dissented in favour of cutting the repo rate by 25 bps Friday – 20 December 2019 Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q3 GDP growth is expected up to 2.2% from 2.1%, with a -$1 bln trimming for factory inventories alongside a $4 bln hike for construction. The Q4 GDP growth estimate sits at 2.4%, with support from recent reports indicating a -4% Q4 drop in imports that adds to GDP, likely firmness in government purchases, a rebounding residential investment sector, and an expected bounce in equipment spending. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.