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Soultrader

US Election: Obama Vs McCain

Who will win the US election?  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the US election?

    • Obama will win
      15
    • McCain will win
      3


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Parker and Stone had to have created two versions. I hope they make the other one available someday.

Yeah, I hear they have episodes on some schedule, but then within a week, can produce new ones based on current events. They could have just bet on Obama winning (and had a backup in case he didn't), or truly created two shows for both results.

 

edit: Then again, they poke fun at his grandmother dying, which was Monday. Damn they're fast.

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While he's entitled to his opinion, I don't know that I'd call it "very understanding". The Republican experiment of the last forty years hasn't exactly been a screaming success. If Obama's approach is a recipe for failure, then I guess the Founding Fathers got it all wrong to begin with.

 

By recipe for failure, I'm talking about the phenomena based on pandering to hope. The world is very complex and few things move in a straight line, except disappointment. This doesn't mean Obama will fail, I don't think he will. But many people who were wrapped up in the idea of change and hope, could be disappointed in the years to come. Obama did well to sell security and hope to his base (the youth) and that's what won him the election. Bush did the same thing, he energized his base and won both elections. A huge majority of people vote based on emotion, and Obama's way of speaking, and his campaign for change did a great job to spark emotion in his favor. If McCain ran a more disciplined campaign, and had a vision, I firmly believe he would have won. McCain dropped the ball when it came to the economy, so bad that it hid the mistakes Obama made. Obama's organization on the ground was also much better, he even beat the Clintons at their own game. So in a sense, Obama is a political genius.

 

I do think Obama will be a good president. I think his diplomatic approach on foreign affairs will boost our image and get more accomplished with the aide of the EU and UN. I think this will be a true test for Democratic demand-side (or Keynesian) economics. But most importantly, in times such as these, I think Obama will be able to inspire the people. So while many problems will remain unsolved (not because of him, just the nature of the problems) his ability to inspire will allow for many people to love and hate him. I also think he will listen thoroughly to his advisors, and those against him, before making decisions. His nature to stay calm during a crisis (even the WSJ made this claim) will benefit his ability to make sound decisions. So while he may raise Brownsfan taxes, I think the country as a whole will benefit. And hopefully in the next 4-8 years the Republican party will re-establish itself, with a better vision, and hopefully learn from their mistakes.

 

Maybe Karl Rove was right, a war and economic downturn would force most of the partisanship in Washington to end.

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Even if one were to agree that Obama "pandered to hope", surely that is preferable to pandering to fear, suspicion, hatred, and intolerance.

 

And if Republicans agree with you that "selling security and hope" to his base is what won him the election, it is unlikely that they will re-establish themselves in four years, or eight, or perhaps ever.

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[quote name=DbPhoenix;51774

And if Republicans agree with you that "selling security and hope" to his base is what won him the election' date=' it is unlikely that they will re-establish themselves in four years, or eight, or perhaps ever.[/quote]

 

Republicans don't agree with me on that; Plato wrote that in The Republic. I'm sure Machiavelli mentioned it too. It's a common way to gain (or preserve) power over others. You sell security in an insecure world, and people will follow you. Leaders have been doing that for hundreds of years, not just Republicans and Democrats.

Edited by james_gsx

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So far, the markets are not thrilled that Obama won.

 

;)

 

Who suggested that? Smart cookie.

 

 

Again, you're smarter than that Chris. Now, everyone knows if McCain won this same thing would have happened and you would have called it a technical move.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8538&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8539&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

I'm starting to sense I'm just going to piss everyone off in this thread. So maybe I should stop posting.

spynov6.jpg.2b15d33da32962c74620d5a0a01933c3.jpg

spyvol.jpg.c568e7ddf0537b74f2ca3b3b16e76f6c.jpg

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It's not that the market is not thrilled about Obama, I think now that the focus on elections is over, now it's back to earnings and economy that takes the front seat again. That means, the crisis ain't over, not that the Obama or McCain will make the crisis go away overnight.

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I don't know if its been mentioned, but markets are statistically more inclined to move higher under democrat presidents than repub. That was first noted in 1950's (analysis of stock market trends was the book I think - a classic) and has been true ever since, or so I've read - haven't actually tested that one.

Markets do climb the "wall of worry".

Torero's right, this was a case of sell on the news. I doubt the markets would have rallied from an low volume overbought condition should McCain have won.

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Again, you're smarter than that Chris. Now, everyone knows if McCain won this same thing would have happened and you would have called it a technical move.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8538&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=8539&stc=1&d=1226035478

 

I'm starting to sense I'm just going to piss everyone off in this thread. So maybe I should stop posting.

 

I disagree gsx. I honestly believe that if McCain won, the markets rally; and they fail on an Obama win. That's what I thought and I'm sticking to it.

 

:)

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This is a little off topic but I hope Obama actually addresses the root of what caused this financial problem. I threw something together for my friends and family about what caused this crisis and attached it here. The first half of it is me explaining some things I'm sure you are all aware of, the 2nd part actually digs into the crisis.

Crisis1.pdf

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