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Soultrader

US Election: Obama Vs McCain

Who will win the US election?  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the US election?

    • Obama will win
      15
    • McCain will win
      3


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It's usually the biggest pawn that wins, so this time around I think (even though they are close) Obama will win. I would find it quite amusing to see the Democrats reaction to McCain winning though. However, McCain wining would ruin my risk/reward theory of the Republicans giving up the next four years on purpose to take back eight years the next time around. :rofl:

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It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

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It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

I'd argue that this could accurately be defined as an Obama rally (and even an uptrend!).

8525d1225821630-us-election-obama-vs-mccain-chart122573151747056985.png

chart122573151747056985.png.ce98d0ab51330f95f5cdecdf2e5c40b7.png

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It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

 

So whoever gets elected will have zero impact on the markets? It's pure coincidence?

 

:confused:

 

I disagree 100%.

 

And just to be clear... your hypothesis says the market may go up or down, right?

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Inverse correlation of SP500 to Intrade Obama does not imply causation. One may propose that the SP500 is down because Obama is getting elected or that if SP500 is higher, McCain could have been elected, both could be valid hypotheses, but both could be wrong. Both may have nothing to do with the ultimate outcome of the election or the economy.

 

No, BF, there is no hypothesis or prediction on my part on market direction; just pointing out the lack of causation.

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InverseObamaSP500.thumb.gif.345e2fe5be7fac616e4ced284de39c64.gif

Edited by thrunner

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You do realize that I never argued for inverse relation to the US equities market to Obama's presidential odds? Or even that they're related... at all?

 

I've never heard anyone in the media claim that a Dow up-day is because McCain / Obama's polling well (or doing well in a debate, etc). In fact, the most I've heard is that congestion in the markets may be affected by the election.

 

edit: We may have a level of misunderstanding. I was labeling an "Obama rally" as what I pictured.. the rally of Obama's odds (not recent market movement). Hope that clears things up if we did misunderstand each other.

 

edit 2: looks like you changed your post to be more accurate as to what you intended. 'Sall good.

Edited by atto

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So whoever gets elected will have zero impact on the markets? It's pure coincidence?

 

:confused:

 

I disagree 100%.

 

And just to be clear... your hypothesis says the market may go up or down, right?

 

I think it's weird how someone of your caliber would place importance of a news event on market direction. Of course there are a few news events that affect price, but the markets have largely ignored the election for the last two years. Not to mention, I thought it was all about the charts ;)

 

Just a little something to add for everyone..

 

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/11/election-edges.html

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I think it's weird how someone of your caliber would place importance of a news event on market direction. Of course there are a few news events that affect price, but the markets have largely ignored the election for the last two years. Not to mention, I thought it was all about the charts ;)

 

Just a little something to add for everyone..

 

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/11/election-edges.html

 

And here comes the PITA

 

;)

 

I think this election, more so than others, will have a big immediate impact on the markets.

 

Now, am I placing any bets on this?

 

HELL NO.

 

Maybe you could straddle it though... lol

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But when you look back, will you say the market rallied/fell because Obama won or McCain won? Or will it be because there are small body candles on lethargic volumes at resistance? Or maybe because when the VIX was 10 points below it's 30 day historical volatility the SPX tends to fall about 8% in the next 20 days? That would also work with the current technical picture. We could fall 8% tomorrow and still be within this range, and we would later just look back as a WRB after spinning top at resistance.

 

Or we could take a long term view and look at demand-side vs supply-side economics. But of course, nothing would happen unless it passes through Congress. Considering they love to act like children I wouldn't expect either candidate to be able to get much done in the first year. Even Karl Rove said a big economic downturn would most likely be needed to bring the parties together ;)

 

I can see how a McCain win would be more beneficial to traders. But I just don't think we'll see a big move based solely on either candidates victory. I apologize if you think I'm being a pain in the ass :)

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John Zarrella

CNN Miami Correspondent

 

Why did you vote? Many of those I asked answered simply, saying it’s a right we have and it shouldn’t be wasted.

 

For others it is far more personal. I ran into a young man named Rick Garcia coming out of Fire Station 33 after he voted. Rick had tears in his eyes. He had voted before but it never meant as much as this time, he said. Or for that matter, to his friends.

 

“I got a lot of friends who would never normally register to vote and they were just calling me, ‘Where do I go? What do I do?’” Here you go, I’ll bring you the paperwork, he told them.

 

The reason for the enthusiasm, Rick’s brother Jair DeJesus Garcia. A private in the U.S. Army, Garcia was killed in Afghanistan. Rick’s eyes welled up as he told me the story.

 

“August 1st of this year he passed away, roadside bomb. It’s the main reason why I came to vote.”

 

“In his honor?”

 

“In his honor, yes. He would want everybody as American citizens to do it.”

 

Rick wears a button with his brother’s picture on it and a dogtag around his next. His brother was with Easy Company out of Fort Hood, Texas. He volunteered at age 29 and had only been in Afganistan two months when he died.

 

Rick says many in his family had never voted before. They too are voting today.

 

Rick says he will never be able to erase the pain of loss. But voting made him feel at ease, at least for awhile.

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I have seen significantly more voting interest from both sides, with plenty of ignorance to go around. I'm glad to see more people voting, but it does sadden me to see people to vote for superficial or party reasons without actually looking into the different candidates.

 

In other news, Obama is holding around 97% on Intrade.

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I have seen significantly more voting interest from both sides, with plenty of ignorance to go around. I'm glad to see more people voting, but it does sadden me to see people to vote for superficial or party reasons without actually looking into the different candidates.

 

In other news, Obama is holding around 97% on Intrade.

 

That's the way it works though. The vast majority of people vote on emotion, hence why the attacking ads are so popular. The public is too easy to manipulate, so it's easy to get stupid things in their head and let it grow.

 

I don't care if someone votes for Obama, McCain, or no one. As long as they have a legitimate reason. There are legitimate reasons to vote for either candidate, but it's important to make your voice heard.

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In a first past the post system your voice is only actually "heard" if you vote in a marginal electorate. The rest of the time voting is more of a ritual than an effective tool to achieve a government you want.

 

Emotion is as good a reason to vote as any: it's what drives the economy and probably drove the invasion of Iraq. Its also what drove that soldier's family to vote in much larger numbers than in earlier elections. Funny thing - emotion - it generates my living and yours too if you're a full time trader.

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Should be an interesting 4 years. I wonder what, if any, impact we as traders will see. Once it hits home, then it gets more personal.

 

For those of us who grew up with segregated schools, "colored" water fountains, "colored" restrooms, "colored" balconies in movie theaters, whites-only restaurants and hotels, it doesn't get more personal than this.

 

It's not always easy to recognize the historic nature of historic events at the time that one is living through them. September 11, 2001, was easy to recognize at the moment the first plane crashed into the North Tower. More often, we focus elsewhere, and events pass us by. It is only later, and frequently too late, that we try to remember what we thought and what we felt.

 

I encourage traders, particularly American traders, most particularly young American traders, not to become so focused on market movements that they fail to live this and fail to understand the significance of it.

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For those of us who grew up with segregated schools, "colored" water fountains, "colored" restrooms, "colored" balconies in movie theaters, whites-only restaurants and hotels, it doesn't get more personal than this.

 

It's not always easy to recognize the historic nature of historic events at the time that one is living through them. September 11, 2001, was easy to recognize at the moment the first plane crashed into the North Tower. More often, we focus elsewhere, and events pass us by. It is only later, and frequently too late, that we try to remember what we thought and what we felt.

 

I encourage traders, particularly American traders, most particularly young American traders, not to become so focused on market movements that they fail to live this and fail to understand the significance of it.

 

My uncle who has spent much of his life involved in politics (served under a president, not sure who, and now is an aide and helping manage a campaign for prime minister candidate), he did not support Obama and thought much of his "campaign for change" and "yes we can" as a recipe for failure in the long run - which is obviously very understanding. Anyways, my uncle put in a lot of hard work as a young adult to push for civil rights. So while he doesn't support Obama from a political view, he is incredibly proud of America and Obama. Like he said, Obama is "the man".

 

So while the majority of you most likely don't support Obama - hopefully for legit reasons and not because he's a "liberal" or "terrorist" (you guys are smarter than that, so I don't expect to see that here). At least congratulate him on the incredible milestone he achieved. In reality, it wasn't that long ago the Civil War was fought, and the push for civil rights. The best part, is that for the majority race wasn't really an issue - that speaks volumes of how far this country has come.

 

Now some of you will probably see your taxes get raised, and I hope to join you in that income bracket in the coming years :)

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For those of us who grew up with segregated schools, "colored" water fountains, "colored" restrooms, "colored" balconies in movie theaters, whites-only restaurants and hotels, it doesn't get more personal than this.

 

It's not always easy to recognize the historic nature of historic events at the time that one is living through them. September 11, 2001, was easy to recognize at the moment the first plane crashed into the North Tower. More often, we focus elsewhere, and events pass us by. It is only later, and frequently too late, that we try to remember what we thought and what we felt.

 

I encourage traders, particularly American traders, most particularly young American traders, not to become so focused on market movements that they fail to live this and fail to understand the significance of it.

 

You reckon Obama at last may bring about some improvement in the status of the REAL NATIVE AMERICANS so called "indians" (poor sods got branded wrong in the first place as they have nothing to do with India;) and are now stuck in their reservations deprived of any dignity, self respect and motivation.

Saw many white and black faces(ALL ULTIMATELY IMMIGRANTS) in the crowds in this election, no sight of any REAL GENUINE AMERICANS:)

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My uncle who has spent much of his life involved in politics (served under a president, not sure who, and now is an aide and helping manage a campaign for prime minister candidate), he did not support Obama and thought much of his "campaign for change" and "yes we can" as a recipe for failure in the long run - which is obviously very understanding.

 

While he's entitled to his opinion, I don't know that I'd call it "very understanding". The Republican experiment of the last forty years hasn't exactly been a screaming success. If Obama's approach is a recipe for failure, then I guess the Founding Fathers got it all wrong to begin with.

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