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firewalker

The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict

Is the future path of price a foregone conclusion?  

54 members have voted

  1. 1. Is the future path of price a foregone conclusion?

    • Yes, all is known in advance
      32
    • No, markets are unpredictable but that doesn't mean you can't profit of them
      22
    • No, the markets are totally random and profit can only be made from inefficiencies that exist over a short period of time
      0


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Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?
I don't think so, at least directly. Black Swans may be caused by small or big things. The Butterfly Effect, from what I understand, seems to work the best theoretically, because it's impossible to identify the cause that started the effect (if the cause is indeed extremely tiny).

 

"Black Swans" aren't effects, theories, or laws. There is no theory guiding or modeling them, besides "expect the unexpected". On another trading forum, I saw someone had identified three Black Swan potentials: S&P at 1000, Oil at $200, and a big financial going bankrupt. Sounds great, except those aren't Black Swans (and when I read the thread, not one person had noticed this). Black Swans aren't just unlikely events that we may have some forsight; they are extremely sudden, extremely important, and extremely unpredictable. With the real estate bust, credit crisis, bear markets, etc, it wouldn't be "shock and awe" for any of those identified "Black Swans" to happen.

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The truth is the correct answer is something between 1 and 2. If you have a predictive system then you may be nearer to 1 than 2.

The pity is that a group of serious traders do not get together to form an investment group as a business.

Everyone is cocooned in their own trading environment with their own system.

TEAMTRADER

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