The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

[firewalker 10]

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

 

you lost me there

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

you lost me there

 

 

Have a Google for the Butterfly Effect, FW...

[atto 20]

Haven't read the whole thread, but are black swans in any way related to butterflies?

I don't think so, at least directly. Black Swans may be caused by small or big things. The Butterfly Effect, from what I understand, seems to work the best theoretically, because it's impossible to identify the cause that started the effect (if the cause is indeed extremely tiny).

 

"Black Swans" aren't effects, theories, or laws. There is no theory guiding or modeling them, besides "expect the unexpected". On another trading forum, I saw someone had identified three Black Swan potentials: S&P at 1000, Oil at $200, and a big financial going bankrupt. Sounds great, except those aren't Black Swans (and when I read the thread, not one person had noticed this). Black Swans aren't just unlikely events that we may have some forsight; they are extremely sudden, extremely important, and extremely unpredictable. With the real estate bust, credit crisis, bear markets, etc, it wouldn't be "shock and awe" for any of those identified "Black Swans" to happen.

[TEAMTRADER 10]

The truth is the correct answer is something between 1 and 2. If you have a predictive system then you may be nearer to 1 than 2.

The pity is that a group of serious traders do not get together to form an investment group as a business.

Everyone is cocooned in their own trading environment with their own system.

TEAMTRADER