Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

I see you started a new thread, so I think it's best I reply over there...

don't want to disrupt the flow of your losing trades in this thread

 

Despite watching another 100 fall without me in my favour, I have my weekly 500 pip goal, how are you doing???

[wasp 10]

Just goes to show - you shouldn't anticipate anything. I needed to wait for confirmation. Yes, I'm a dufus!

 

Out for -63 and will now sit and nurse my wounds.

 

This has turned into a bloody ugly day for me. It should have been very rosy.

 

Hypocritical of me to say and just as guilty at times but........

 

Rules, Rules, Rules................

 

Why did you just go long other than the fact that you weren't already short and worried it was too late to go short so best go long rather than sit there missing out?

[firewalker 10]

This thread is to remove the risk/temptation to over trade through boredom...

 

 

If you want some puzzles to get your mind started, let me know

 

Here's a good one:

You have 9 balls, one of them is heavier than the other. You have a balance which you can use exactly two times to determine which ball it is. No cheating or using of other aids.

 

After you found that one (which is easy compared to this), try doing the same thing with 12 balls. But in this case you don't know whether the one ball out is heavier or lighter. I found this one really challenging. It's definitely good to keep you busy while waiting for a trade!

[cowpip 10]

Hypocritical of me to say and just as guilty at times but........

 

Rules, Rules, Rules................

 

Why did you just go long other than the fact that you weren't already short and worried it was too late to go short so best go long rather than sit there missing out?

 

Because I'm an ass, Wasp! A total complete ass!

 

I broke the rule, didn't wait for confirmation, went on a hunch that the thing would behave at the support line and have now paid the piper for that foolishness.

 

If there's one good thing that has come from this, it has been the reinforcement to OBEY THE !$%@ RULES! Jeez.

 

I'm -137 for the day. And it should have been a bloody profitable day. Time to go cool off now and dig up that dead dog for some more target practice.

[wasp 10]

If you want some puzzles to get your mind started, let me know

 

Here's a good one:

You have 9 balls, one of them is heavier than the other. You have a balance which you can use exactly two times to determine which ball it is. No cheating or using of other aids.

 

After you found that one (which is easy compared to this), try doing the same thing with 12 balls. But in this case you don't know whether the one ball out is heavier or lighter. I found this one really challenging. It's definitely good to keep you busy while waiting for a trade!

 

STOP CHANGING THE SUBJECT and state your answers..........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and btw,

 

1 - Split the balls into three groups of three balls each.

 

2 - First use of the scale: Weigh any two groups against each other.

 

 

 

3 - If the groups weigh the same then the heavier ball is in the third group, otherwise it is in the group that weighs more.

 

 

 

4 - We now know that the heavy ball is one of three.

 

 

 

5 - Second use of the scale: Using the group of balls that we know contains the heavy ball, weight any two balls against each other.

 

 

 

6 - If one of the balls is heavier then we have our answer. If the balls weigh the same then the third ball is the heavy one and we again have our answer.

[firewalker 10]

So....... Each chart is 1 candle from either reversing or continuing and you said to me, major reversals only happen at S/R........

 

Come on... which way for each?!

 

I didn't say that I could predict what was going to happen next...

 

But I'll tell you what I would do depending on market action in just a minute!

[wasp 10]

I didn't say that I could predict what was going to happen next...

 

But I'll tell you what I would do depending on market action in just a minute!

 

 

You said a major reversal will ONLY happen at S or R and I said I will prove you wrong, and here we are!

[firewalker 10]

STOP CHANGING THE SUBJECT and state your answers..........

 

 

Okay, so you knew that riddle by heart

 

I bet you can't find that with 12 balls so fast...

[firewalker 10]

Before I continue...

 

there is also the chance that what wasps considers a 'major reversal' is not the same as my definition

[wasp 10]

Get on with it!

[firewalker 10]

Here comes numero uno

 

[cowpip 10]

Despite watching another 100 fall without me in my favour, I have my weekly 500 pip goal, how are you doing???

 

I was on-target for a similar total, till IDIOCY took over. I'm now only +119 for the entire week. Ah well... it could be worse. Last week was far worse.

 

I'm getting tired of trying to find these new S/R lines. Have to go way back now.

 

Wasp, am I right in positioning the next S/R line near 188.95?

[wasp 10]

Yep I have it at 91 so close enough

[firewalker 10]

Und jetzt die zweite...

 

[wasp 10]

Here comes numero uno

 

 

 

..........

 

These are 4hour charts so that is a big reversal!

 

Ooooh, and where is the support causing that................?

[firewalker 10]

de derde (= 'the third' for non-Dutch speaking people )

 

[wasp 10]

Und jetzt die zweite...

 

 

and it did..................

[wasp 10]

de derde (= 'the third' for non-Dutch speaking people )

 

 

 

and it did..........

[cowpip 10]

Cool. Thanks.

[wasp 10]

I am impressed oh Belgian one, congrats!

 

There is more to you than Stella Artois

[firewalker 10]

Aha! So I would've scaled out but still be in for the rest of the upmove.

With another exit at the red dot annotated on this chart.

 

 

..........

 

These are 4hour charts so that is a big reversal!

 

Ooooh, and where is the support causing that................?

 

Ehm, I'm not sure what you mean but I don't see a reversal here!

All I see is price making a swing low, then making another swing high but failing to break much higher. Then we have a move back to support and yes it moves slightly below support but it comes back up immediately to recover and rally!

 

So either you are stopped out because you have a tight stop (which means you can still re-enter when price recovers), or you are still in because you have a somewhat wider stop.

 

Sorry, no reversal here in my eyes! Just a test of support on a typical shake-out!

[firewalker 10]

I am impressed oh Belgian one, congrats!

 

There is more to you than Stella Artois

 

Of course, we (Inbev) have acquired half of the world's beer by now :o

 

Good exercise btw. I liked it. No price quotes, no instrument, so no cheating.

And despite the lack of volume I still managed to do okay. Hmm...

[wasp 10]

Aha! So I would've scaled out but still be in for the rest of the upmove.

With another exit at the red dot annotated on this chart.

 

 

 

Ehm, I'm not sure what you mean but I don't see a reversal here!

All I see is price making a swing low, then making another swing high but failing to break much higher. Then we have a move back to support and yes it moves slightly below support but it comes back up immediately to recover and rally!

 

So either you are stopped out because you have a tight stop (which means you can still re-enter when price recovers), or you are still in because you have a somewhat wider stop.

 

Sorry, no reversal here in my eyes! Just a test of support on a typical shake-out!

 

My point being the support level in question prior that rally was broken so yes, whilst crossing back through meant it was due to rally, to say it turned and continued up because of support is a bit of a long shot. Coincidence even.

[cowpip 10]

I'd just like to emphasize to everyone watching my learning curve here about something...

 

If I would have stuck strictly to the 4-hour plan (and disregard even trend-lines), I would have nabbed most of this 400 pip day. What I did today was a cardinal sin, yet I often find myself repeatedly violating it. I got lazy and decided I was smarter than the market. I AM NOT SMARTER THAN THE MARKET. No one is.

 

What I needed to do was wait for price to test, reject and close above one of the S/R lines before taking my long. But I decided in my very small mind that price would be rejected at 190 - partly because of the size of the bounce that we saw the first time it visited there. You can't assume anything!!! You have to wait for the market to tell you the truth. If you do anything earlier, you've dulled your edge to the point that you couldn't cut through a cake with it and you've unduly increased your risk.

 

My losses today were entirely deserved! Break the rules, pay the price. It's as simple as that.

 

Don't break the rules, people. And if you don't have any, FIND SOME quick! Write them down, memorize them, dream about them, rehearse them to yourself in the mirror, or whatever it takes to prevent yourself from breaking them. It's easier said than done when you're sitting at the computer watching price action. But if you don't heed it, you pay it.

[wasp 10]

Of course, we (Inbev) have acquired half of the world's beer by now :o

 

Just as long as you leave that American muck where it is! :rofl:

 

 

Canadian beer is all good btw! (and Japanese too in case Soultrader is reading!)