Trade Discussion and Analysis

[firewalker 10]

I am having one of those days that, if this doesn't bounce, I am thinking off wondering off for a week and taking some time out.....

 

With the fake breaks, poxy drops and pitiful drivel in between, I am getting nowhere fast and for all the effort, its actually a waste of time so, unless we can break up from here, I am taking a break till we do find a bottom as this is boring the shit out of me tbh!

 

The crappy drops to each new support is fine and then I am giving back what I make on the crap in between. I can live with small moves but only coupled with large moves and whilst I agree, one should adapt as each moment in the markets are unique, I'm really not in the mood!

 

It's a cliché but it's true:

Flat is also a position!

[firewalker 10]

I think part of my problem is I am a tad greedy.... If I was content with 30/40 pip trades twice a day I would be in heaven right now as that's easy atm but for me, anything less than a 500+ pip week was a waste of time.

 

I was used to decent weekly points to for some months. Then came summertime. I had to settle for less, much less and some weeks ended up negative for the first in a long long time! :\

 

So yes perhaps you're greedy combined with impatient.

If I read "can't wait to get this last 18% he needs" that would seem confirmed ...

[firewalker 10]

This is where I see it........

 

And now you see where I got the 190 I talked about last week...

[wasp 10]

What's this, abuse wasp day! Get stung as a kid or something??!

 

You are right though I know, I should stop thinking of what I want, get in tune and become one with the market and take what it offers as it offers it, not try to force something out if it....

[firewalker 10]

I'm not into patterns per se, but if you know what they represent it's interesting to see the market react.

 

Looks like price came back to the neckline of the head & shoulder formation and sold off strongly. The downmove that GBP/JPY is currently experiencing has a much steeper gradient than the move up that started in February 2008...

 

[wasp 10]

Yep, and if only I played a slightly larger TF

[firewalker 10]

Yep, and if only I played a slightly larger TF

 

Hindsight is easy to say ofcourse... but given the strength of the downmove plus not a single green candle to see...

[wasp 10]

Hindsight is easy to say ofcourse... but given the strength of the downmove plus not a single green candle to see...

 

Does anyone here live in Belgium that can go around and slap him?!!

[firewalker 10]

Does anyone here live in Belgium that can go around and slap him?!!

 

nope, no other Belgians in the vicinity :o :groove:

[wasp 10]

Hindsight is easy to say ofcourse... but given the strength of the downmove plus not a single green candle to see...

 

Let us not forget that my longs over the last week were only for returns to S that became R in order to get a better price for the next drop.... I haven't been looking for or trying to call a bottom.... well, not till today anyhow!

Edited September 3, 2008 by wasp
sp.

[firewalker 10]

Let us not forget my longs over the mast week were only for returns to S that became R to get a better price for the next drop.... I haven't been looking for or trying to call a bottom.... well, not till today anyhow!

 

I did read somewhere below your nick:

"is trying to pick a bottom" :hmmmm:

[wasp 10]

I did read somewhere below your nick:

"is trying to pick a bottom" :hmmmm:

 

Yeah, but then I realised I was on the wrong forum!

[firewalker 10]

Yeah, but then I realised I was on the wrong forum!

 

:rofl: good one!

[wasp 10]

But seriously....... I don't want much... Just S to return to R then maybe break and the next to become S and break up through both to a previous S turned R etc, so on and so forth.... All neatly packaged with trendlines to stop me taking reversals I shouldn't but not turning to quick so I miss out...

 

Just that, each for +100 a time and it can trend up, down or backwards for all I care as long as the above works!

[firewalker 10]

But seriously....... I don't want much... Just S to return to R then maybe break and the next to become S and break up through both to a previous S turned R etc, so on and so forth.... All neatly packaged with trendlines to stop me taking reversals I shouldn't but not turning to quick so I miss out...

 

Just that, each for +100 a time and it can trend up, down or backwards for all I care as long as the above works!

 

I think in a strong downtrend like this one S does not return to R because there is not enough demand. Most of the time if price can't get to the midpoint of a zone identified by a S and a R level, then you better run for the exit... imho...

 

of course one way to prevent taking reversal which don't run very far is to keep in those shorts longer and scale out... I know that's not your style but I don't see much other option!

[wasp 10]

...... if price can't get to the midpoint of a zone identified by a S and a R level, then you better run for the exit...

 

I like this bit.... Just how, in RT, do you know its not getting to the other side, until of course, its returned to S?!!!

[wasp 10]

of course one way to prevent taking reversal which don't run very far is to keep in those shorts longer and scale out... I know that's not your style but I don't see much other option!

 

FX is a fickle beast and when this does turn, I will show you.... It will happen hard, fast and when you least expect it.

[firewalker 10]

I like this bit.... Just how, in RT, do you know its not getting to the other side, until of course, its returned to S?!!!

 

Well you gauge momentum... for instance if price makes higher highs and higher lows after bouncing off S you can stay in. But if it quickly fails to do so you run for the exit. Or if you see price bouncing, then stalling for a decent period of time and instead of continuing it's upward movement it falls back down, you exit. Several options available everything depends on how much you are willing to risk in order to gain something.

 

But in a downtrend I think the odds that price goes from R to S are higher than the other way around. Just my 2c.

[firewalker 10]

FX is a fickle beast and when this does turn, I will show you.... It will happen hard, fast and when you least expect it.

 

Sure, but not until it reached some really decent support right?

Any reversal that occurs in mid-air has little chance of surviving very long imo.

[wasp 10]

Sure, but not until it reached some really decent support right?

Any reversal that occurs in mid-air has little chance of surviving very long imo.

 

I am about to go to bed but I shall post you 10 screen shots tomorrow!

[firewalker 10]

I am about to go to bed but I shall post you 10 screen shots tomorrow!

 

Bring it on

goodnight!

[wasp 10]

Bring it on

goodnight!

 

keep you going...........

 

Reverse or stay.........?

Edited September 3, 2008 by wasp

[wasp 10]

Classic!

 

The reversal up happened not from support but from mid S/R after failing to drop once again....

 

What a poxy week so far far me! Only 240 pips and nearly over!

[wasp 10]

This thread is to remove the risk/temptation to over trade through boredom...

 

It will be various charts from various markets for analysis (per Barjons WOT threads) so when you have itchy fingers, analyse and predict these instead!

 

Starting it off, we have 3 FX charts...

 

Firewalker believes reversals only happen at S/R whereas I know FX is a bitch and it can happen when you least expect it so, a simple 1=, 2=, 3= and answer stay in or reversal....

 

All can play and we'll jump around from FX to Indices to stocks etc, with volume and without..

[cowpip 10]

Classic!

 

The reversal up happened not from support but from mid S/R after failing to drop once again....

 

What a poxy week so far far me! Only 240 pips and nearly over!

 

Yep. But the 4-hour gave a good signal, which you appear to have rode higher.

 

EDIT: Or was it the trend lines that prompted you to go long?