Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

This thread is for discussing charts and explaining trade entries/exits. People are free to post any kind of chart, with or without annotations and engage in rational discussion. I am hoping enough people will open up and show their entries/exits on a chart and explain the reasoning behind them. Feel free to ask questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll explain the reasoning behind me long trade posted live here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/35841-post5.html

 

The entry was long at 12930 on the DOW (all prices are quoted from the futures). First of all, it's important to have context. Yesterday's context made me look for the long side, instead of short side.

 

First of all, going back a couple of days: +/- 12780 was an important level. On more than one occasion:

 

- on May 7 and May 8 that was the low of the day, price finding support there

- on May 9, it provided resistance and supply coming in there, effectively turning price around for that day

- on May 12, it's where the market opened

- yesterday, we had a selling climax and a re-test on that level

 

This is a chart of yesterday. I went long on the re-test, but that doesn't matter very much, because I don't hold my positions overnight.

 

6372d1210781033-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080513.jpg

 

As a result of that, I only stayed in the long trade till the end of the day and missed the run-up that happened on the open today. Better wishing you were in, than wishing you were out though.

 

More importantly, with a selling climax and strength in the background, I was looking to take a long position today, preferably at the best price possible, near 840-850. Unfortunately, they didn't exactly make it easy for me, price opened with a very strong push upwards.

 

Most people would then be looking for a short around 920-930 (resistance). I know it's exactly what I would have done in my early days. One reason is frustration of having missed the earlier entry, the other reason is wanting to take a trade. But I've learnt to control that - at least to some extent, still more learning to do!

 

So I waited for a retracement where I could enter. There's less potential, but at least it is trading in the right direction. My entry was at 12930 when resistance turned into support. See chart.

 

6373d1210781471-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080514a.jpg

 

13030 is the next resistance level, but 970 is another hurdle before we can think of that (look at May 4, 5 and 6). I'm not getting too optimistic, especially since we are - as I type this - not exactly moving higher much and volume is thin. But then again, it's lunchtime...

ym_20080513.jpg.f2ed41580dd997762785f31208a8dada.jpg

ym_20080514a.jpg.7027b2d6574464f4810e3133202d57c0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A very simple rejection of the highs with weakness on the last leg up after 36 hours up movement.

 

Trend about to be broken and both pushed thrice at the highs.

shorts.thumb.gif.e7f011a25c5be4fbe99c225c98fc81cb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately I was asleep to catch the reversal optimum point on the S/R and uptrend but ces't la vie, 60 pips anyhow.

 

So albeit late, reversed on the bounce off S/R and trendline cross on both pairs. The highs from yesterday are in view and the line chart shows the congestion between the two levels. ATM, its 50/50 apart from the fact we are in an uptrend and the EJ has broken the highs already...

 

Another rejection and break of the uptrend will cancel all this and SAR again but thats trading!

yens.thumb.gif.7c8c7c214900cd9cda9e6162e4606610.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately I was too eager with my trendlines and watching EJ made me exit and SAR that GJ position only to take a loss and SAR again. Must pay more attention to what I draw! :crap:

5aa70e60cf75b_mybad.gif.a5aa27df8739ee15588443a056f1fee3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'll explain the reasoning behind me long trade posted live here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/35841-post5.html

 

The entry was long at 12930 on the DOW (all prices are quoted from the futures). First of all, it's important to have context. Yesterday's context made me look for the long side, instead of short side.

 

First of all, going back a couple of days: +/- 12780 was an important level. On more than one occasion:

 

- on May 7 and May 8 that was the low of the day, price finding support there

- on May 9, it provided resistance and supply coming in there, effectively turning price around for that day

- on May 12, it's where the market opened

- yesterday, we had a selling climax and a re-test on that level

 

This is a chart of yesterday. I went long on the re-test, but that doesn't matter very much, because I don't hold my positions overnight.

 

6372d1210781033-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080513.jpg

 

As a result of that, I only stayed in the long trade till the end of the day and missed the run-up that happened on the open today. Better wishing you were in, than wishing you were out though.

 

More importantly, with a selling climax and strength in the background, I was looking to take a long position today, preferably at the best price possible, near 840-850. Unfortunately, they didn't exactly make it easy for me, price opened with a very strong push upwards.

 

Most people would then be looking for a short around 920-930 (resistance). I know it's exactly what I would have done in my early days. One reason is frustration of having missed the earlier entry, the other reason is wanting to take a trade. But I've learnt to control that - at least to some extent, still more learning to do!

 

So I waited for a retracement where I could enter. There's less potential, but at least it is trading in the right direction. My entry was at 12930 when resistance turned into support. See chart.

 

6373d1210781471-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080514a.jpg

 

13030 is the next resistance level, but 970 is another hurdle before we can think of that (look at May 4, 5 and 6). I'm not getting too optimistic, especially since we are - as I type this - not exactly moving higher much and volume is thin. But then again, it's lunchtime...

 

 

Hi FW,

 

Did you have 920-930 highlighted as Resistance premarket or did you gauge it intramarket after price stalled there momentarily?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi FW,

 

Did you have 920-930 highlighted as Resistance premarket or did you gauge it intramarket after price stalled there momentarily?

 

The blue lines you see were drawn from left to right, meaning they were there before the day opened. So yes, I had it highlighted premarket.

 

Welcome smb :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if this is the right word ('preclusion') but I've often realized that - when thinking of taking a trade - one should think if he would reverse if he were in a position.

 

Usually helps in taking counter-trend trades which don't offer the necessary potential to warrant the risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my long on GJ this evening.

 

A bounce from support and cross of the ST trend. The strength of the down move does not convince me we are heading far down tonight so in for the long, I have an SAR level below my stop so ride the overnight move and see if we break back down tomorrow or head up for 205.

 

All that said, it and EJ have just woken up and dropped so this may be over before I finish typing!

gj.thumb.gif.837a23b3a8e067e36260a5b49f5ef2f6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

 

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

kw_ej_channel.thumb.png.5ffcdfa1c6bbec3a4154f1d713b28082.png

kw_fan_breaks.thumb.png.8f1acb5cdcaebc12a7414b0ae5597a8e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers Nine, I'l see if I can get soultrader or someone to juggle the posts about tomorrow.

 

There seems to be more then my brain is getting around atm so will reply in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6429&stc=1&d=1210904348

 

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

 

Too bad these don't come along more often.

Image6.gif.b7a27f9dec5a897daf6b7364da81e338.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wasp I posted those alternative line structures in the wrong thread (but can't delete it and can't seem to find a "complain button" to get the mods to move it) so here's the link:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f130/live-fx-trades-3848.html#post36161

 

Kiwi - I moved that post you linked to. You can use the big yellow "S" to report your own post to a mod and explain why (move, delete duplicate, etc.).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

 

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

 

Too bad these don't come along more often.

 

Thanks for contributing here. But you mention intraday trading, yet you post a 30-minute chart of the last couple of days... Anyway, you seem to be comparing volume from different days. I've often found it difficult to do so, because Fridays and pre-holiday days for example sometimes have a tendency to 'drift' on lower volume. Unless I'm taking into account the daily picture, it seems difficult to reconcile the overnight/premarket action with any possible pattern that comes up. You just ignore it then?

 

Setting that aside, it looks a rather late entry, comparing what Wyckoff tells about entering on the selling climax and adding on the re-test...

 

If this was an intraday chart, I would consider the earlier rise in volume (green dot) as another possible entry signal. Followed by a "no supply" bar on very low volume with no effect, after which price rises on increasing volume.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6435&stc=1&d=1210926870

db_hinge.GIF.3d9c1240e55c547b495b10302c5798b8.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While days appear to be discrete, they are in fact the result of everything that's gone before, even though the details may not be immediately apparent. Therefore, an intraday setup can and usually is the result of something that's happened the previous day, or even the previous week. The "30m" display is for consolidation only. A 1m chart would show the same thing, only with 30 times more bars. And it would of course be much wider. As to the overnite, sometimes it matters and sometimes it doesn't. If in doubt, plot a CVB chart. In this case, the CVB chart and the time bar chart are the same (if you have a potential hinge, plot both; it's important to know whether or not volume is declining during the formation of the hinge).

 

As for being late, the test occurred pre-market, and not everybody wants to enter trades then, even if they can. In any case, the immediate hinge may stop out the trader who's trading tight. And even if he has a wide stop, he may not be comfortable sitting there and waiting throughout the hinge (the perfect scenario works out only in hindsight). He may elect instead to exit and stand aside until the market decides what it wants to do.

 

As for entering at the apex of the hinge, that is an option ("no supply" is VSA, and I'd rather not get into anything having to do with VSA), but since there has already been one attempt to take price down and another attempt to take price up, both of which were faded, the trader may want to wait until the market has shown its hand. In this case, waiting for the volume -- i.e., the professional interest -- makes it a much higher-probability trade. I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

 

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

First up, nice charts! Who do you use?

 

interesting charts. Are they all self drawn lines? Who is Andrew Babson? Does he mind you using him!?!!

 

Whilst I can see what the lines are telling you, I can't tell how you'd use them specifically?

 

Prey tell............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

 

True, that's why I was hypothesizing "if this were an intraday chart"...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there such a thing as free intraday YM futures charting? I have cash on metatrader but would be good to follow you guys and watch the movements...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $SFM Sprouts Farmers Markets stock with a nice move higher off 24.7 triple support area and now a breakout watch above 26.17, from Stocks To Watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SFM
    • $ORN Orion Group stock with a nice high trade quality setup and move higher off the 2.8 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ORN
    • $CIR CIRCOR International stock with an ascending triangle breakout watch above 25.92 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?CIR
    • $ANTM Anthem stock attempting to move higher off 256.04 triple+ support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ANTM
    • Date : 14th July 2020.Sterling in the Cross-hairs today.GBPUSD, H1UK data today has continued the pressure on Sterling, with the UK economy rebounding less than expected in May. Overall GDP lifted 1.8% m/m, compared to Bloomberg consensus of 5.5% m/m. With economic activity still falling -20.3% m/m in April, the modest uptick over the month still saw the annual rate falling back to -19.1%, from -10.8% y/y in the previous month. Industrial production actually lifted 6.0% m/m and construction output rebounded 8.2% m/m, but rebounds fell short of expectations and this also holds for the index of services, which lifted a mere 0.9% m/m, after still falling -18.9% m/m in April. Services are still down nearly 19% on last year’s levels, construction output is nearly 40% below the levels in May last year and overall industrial production 20%. Virus restrictions came later and subsequently were also lifted later in the UK compared to most other European countries, and forward looking confidence data are signalling that at least the construction sector is back in expansion territory. Still, the numbers highlight downside risks, especially as there is also not much progress in trade talks with the EU, leaving the risk that the transition period will end without a new deal in place.The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) also issued their latest updates today and it makes sorry reading for the UK economy, with expectations of record peacetime levels of public debt and the largest decline in UK GDP in 300 years.Cable carved out a six-day low at 1.2537, which has been partly a product of sterling underperformance following a much weaker than expected UK May GDP figure, and followed through to test 1.2505 following the OBR report. EURGBP concurrently lifted to a seven-day peak at 0.9069, and GBPJPY traded into six-day low terrain at 134.17.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.