Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

What we've seen in the last couple of days is a little bit on the unusual side, Wasp. Is it possible you will be over-complicating your proven strat solely due to unusual circumstances? Or are you looking for an addition/confirmer solely for these times of unusual circumstances?

 

Look at the att chart on a smaller TF. You can see that S/R on those did not got broken thus, negating the longs. The problem with the 240m chart is one pip too high or low with the S/R and you are screwed, and every time, it landed the wrong side.

 

240m stays paramount but I will not be taking positions based on 240m alone, I will want to see the ST S/R broken too.

 

I need to look into it more but it would stop these problems. Hopefully.

shorter.thumb.gif.34d56f96e5261c43c181e8340eba3268.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PS: Maybe just switching to the daily frames when the daily range exceeds a certain level would suffice?

 

Ironically, I switched from dailies to 240m because of the range bound conditions!

 

The dailies made this obvious as I posted at the weekend but trade the 240m plan regardless!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
was anyone expecting that 200 pip 30min drop?!

 

Right. I am off to nurse my wounds as this has been the shittiest week of the summer for me and the best movement to rub further salt in the wound :frustrated:

 

its probably no consolation whatsoever, but even us indicator-freaks are getting nowhere fast.

I am actually switching to paper-trading until next week. (the very day GBPUSD sells off mega)

 

dont take it personally, but its a peculiar form of satisfaction that even you SupRes guys dont have it easy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would expect some pushing and pulling around, then perhaps a retracement back to 208'ish before eventually reaching 204-205.

 

Price sure is moving fast... 204 is already here. Still no long signal in my book, but this was the target level for shorts. A push slightly through 204 with a fast comeback high would signal a long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
its probably no consolation whatsoever, but even us indicator-freaks are getting nowhere fast.

I am actually switching to paper-trading until next week. (the very day GBPUSD sells off mega)

 

dont take it personally, but its a peculiar form of satisfaction that even you SupRes guys dont have it easy.

 

The HMA's would have been beautiful this week!

 

Its annoying for everyone I think, partly due to everyone so used to trading a range only to get hit by a trend we all dream of yet always miss out on!

 

Great day for the trenders though!

 

On Sunday I posted a daily chart expecting this break to cause a down move. Never did I expect this size of a move. Why? Because whenever I have done the same thing in the same situation, it has bounced then continued up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dont take it personally, but its a peculiar form of satisfaction that even you SupRes guys dont have it easy.

 

I think in this case it has more to do with the trader not identifying S/R correctly, instead of the market behaving strangely.

 

Fwiw, I know see a failure to make a lower low on support (on the miniscule 5minute chart that is). Going lower here is still risky but here is my papertrade: long @ 204.17.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The HMA's would have been beautiful this week!

 

Its annoying for everyone I think, partly due to everyone so used to trading a range only to get hit by a trend we all dream of yet always miss out on!

!

 

Which reminds me of the trouble I had in July... June was extremely trending and I didn't except the NQ to stay rangebound for so long. We should've switched places then and back now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It wasn't the market this time. It was all me. I have no excuses apart from bad placement of S/R.

 

I have pulled the kitchen knife out of my hand and bandaged it up and away we go again!

 

 

 

Oh, and must stop playing with my nieces, posting shit on T2W to start arguments and stop trying to keep the No1 slot over there too.

 

-----------

 

As Mr Pink said to the others..............

 

''Both of you guys got ten years on me and I'm the only one acting like a professional.''

 

I'm NOT Mr Pink in this equation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fwiw, I know see a failure to make a lower low on support (on the miniscule 5minute chart that is). Going lower here is still risky but here is my papertrade: long @ 204.17.

 

Keep in mind I know nothing of this instrument, and I would like to know what the average movement per timeframe is, but I'm placing below the low of that the lowest bar, which would be about at 203.95.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keep in mind I know nothing of this instrument, and I would like to know what the average movement per timeframe is, but I'm placing below the low of that the lowest bar, which would be about at 203.95.

 

At the moment, I'd say don't ask me! but, at the moment, I would bbe looking for 204 to hold, if not........................??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It wasn't the market this time. It was all me. I have no excuses apart from bad placement of S/R.

 

Bad S/R placement has caused me a whole lot more trouble than you can imagine! smbtnt will confirm as well...

 

Oh, and must stop playing with my nieces, posting shit on T2W to start arguments and stop trying to keep the No1 slot over there too.

 

Especially the last part :o

 

As Mr Pink said to the others..............

 

Check out 'Interview', he's good there as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At the moment, I'd say don't ask me! but, at the moment, I would bbe looking for 204 to hold, if not........................??

 

Well it looks like I was a bit premature (rarely happens ;))

 

It's still a potential shakeout if we climb back above 204.

 

A push slightly through 204 with a fast comeback high would signal a long.

 

203.85 and right back up to 204. I need to listen to myself more. The plan was to wait for this to happen, then go long on confirmation if price goes back above 204. It has yet to do that, so my trade was not according to plan!

 

Anyhow, with 45 minutes till US markets, I'll better start focusing on my own instruments instead of messing around elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyhow, with 45 minutes till US markets, I'll better start focusing on my own instruments instead of messing around elsewhere.

 

Yes, I think we find it all too easy to become distracted and not concentrate on what we are doing. (T2W, taking the piss out of Belgium, looking at other markets).

 

Come on chaps, bit more professionalism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These support/resistance lines are all valid to me, Wasp. The problem as I see it is that the momentum down is just horrifically strong and is causing them to tumble like dominoes. I don't think it's a problem with your strat.

 

Time to go to paper until this thing settles down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
These resistance lines are all valid to me, Wasp. The problem as I see it is that the momentum down is just horrifically strong and is causing them to tumble like dominoes. I don't think it's a problem with your strat.

 

Time to go to paper until this thing settles down.

 

I see problems with some of my levels and I think I had too many and there importance had waned yet I kept them regardless.

 

Removing some which held little strength at the most recent areas (despite their strength prior) would have meant more success.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I see problems with some of my levels and I think I had too many and there importance had waned yet I kept them regardless.

 

Removing some which held little strength at the most recent areas (despite their strength prior) would have meant more success.

 

There is no way to predetermine their effectiveness, is there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is no way to predetermine their effectiveness, is there?

 

There are/were levels which had been of importance but the last time price was at said level, it was of no importance. Those levels become less of use and can be removed. as they are no longer S or R.

 

Attached are the 2 variations.

old.thumb.gif.14063b52bc90970d3904bf9d6322a573.gif

new.thumb.gif.59ea4729a0c502733d09be86e7a260c5.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are/were levels which had been of importance but the last time price was at said level, it was of no importance. Those levels become less of use and can be removed. as they are no longer S or R.

 

Attached are the 2 variations.

 

I took a look at both versions, and they appear to be identical to me?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see the changes now. I was seeing the same file before, but now it's different. Maybe you changed it? Or my browser crapped up. No matter. I can see the differences now. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still cannot believe what I am seeing; the possible profits, and knowing I missed the lot! (and bought into it losing money instead!)

 

It should have been the best week of the year and I should be on the phone to my travel agent ffs!

wow.thumb.gif.734f16bf5f51655851460acc9b5a0ec3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • SWI SolarWinds stock attempting to move higher off the 11.59 triple+ support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?SWI
    • SOUN SoundHound AI stock watch for upside break of the short term downtrend, https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • MYGN Myriad Genetics stock attempting to move higher off the 22.28 support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?MYGN
    • ISRG Intuitive Surgical stock beautiful breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ISRG
    • Date: 5th June 2024. US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years.     US Job Vacancies fell to their lowest level in more than 3 years adding to fears of economic contraction. This week US PMI data falls and there are now lower job vacancies. Has the US economy passed its peak and is now in a downfall? Analysts advise if bond yields drop below 4.300%, yields can fall as low as 4.00% in the near term. Stocks rise to a weekly high as investors predict earlier rate hikes. A pause in September has fallen to a 35.00% possibility (5.00% lower) according to the Chicago Exchange. USA500 – US Job Vacancies Fall to Their Lowest Level In 3 Years! The SNP500 on Tuesday struggled due to poor investor sentiment and fear of economic slowdown. However, the price rose due to the latest US JOLTS Job Openings which shows less job vacancies within the US economy. This is due to investors changing their view on future interest rate cuts. Investors are evaluating whether the poorer economic data will tempt the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which supports the economy and makes stocks more attractive. However, analysts advise a strong stock market needs a balance between the economy and monetary policy. If investors fear a recession, shareholders may opt to lower exposure to the stock market regardless of lower interest rates. In order to monitor investor sentiment, the market will continue to monitor the VIX which has risen over the past week. In addition to this, investors will also monitor if the High Low Index falls from recent highs. The JOLTS Job Openings has fallen from 8.49 million to 8.06 million and is 700,000 lower than the 6-month average. Investors will now give more importance to today’s ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s Weekly Unemployment Claims. If both also significantly fall, stocks can gain upward momentum due to potentially lower rates or can collapse on recession fears. This will also depend on today’s ISM Services PMI. Analysts advise investors will ideally want to see lower employment data and a positive PMI or visa versa. We can see here there is a thin line between lower rates and a harsh landing. Over the past week bond yields have significantly fallen which is positive for the stock market. However, the 10-Year Treasuries are 0.013% lower now. If bond yields fall below 4.300%, the yields can fall as low as 4.000% which is known to be positive for stocks in general. Oil prices have fallen almost 9% in 5-days which could also improve sentiment and weaken inflation over the next 2-months. European stocks open higher as we approach the European Cash Open. However, investors will monitor the price movement after the US news releases. The SNP500’s price is currently trading above the main sentiment lines and Moving Averages which is a positive indication. Now the price is slightly lower but if it rises above $5,306.83 without forming a lower low beforehand, buy signals will become stronger.   USDJPY – The Japanese Yen Witnesses The Largest Currency Decline! The day’s worst performing currency is the Japanese Yen while the best performing is the US Dollar. Even though the US Dollar is being pressured by a higher chance of lower rates, the Fed’s policy is still more competitive than most Central Banks. In addition to this, the Dollar’s safe haven element may also play a part. The exchange rate is witnessing buy signals on most indicators, but technical analysts are cautious after already seeing a 0.72% climb this morning.   Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated today that officials should closely monitor yen movements due to their potential significant impact on the national economy. Consequently, currency weakness will be a crucial factor in deciding the timing and extent of the next increase in borrowing costs. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also emphasized that the regulator’s primary objective is to allow the market to set long-term interest rates while retaining the capability to scale back large-scale bond purchases in the short term. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.