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darthtrader

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

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Well, this is easily the strangest book in my entire library. I had bought this book almost immediately when it came out. I tried to read a few chapters the first day I got it and it basically sat on the shelf since that day. My intial opinion was that it was complete and utter garbage having nothing at all to do with the title. Having recently started to get into data mining I ran across mention of it in a thread, opened up it tonight and completely ripped through half of it in awe.

 

The problem with this book is the title really should be in quotes as the author is essentially proposing a new form of technical analysis based on data mining and statistical inference as opposed to showing what traditional chart patterns or what not have positive expectancy. A more honest title would be "data mining and statistical inference of financial data for dummies".

As far as trading wisdom there really is none, if you embrace the concepts of this book it basically is setting out on a path of much learning and down a very different road from traditional TA. What I found quite interesting is that it brought together alot of things I found in this area from different sources in one book. Data mining traps and what to watch out for, the importance of judging your results against a random system....In all though it really is more of a philosophy book with a stats primer.

 

If you trade purely discretionary this book will be utterly worthless. Even for alot of systems trading it may be totally worthless. If your open to the idea of setting off on a new course though of basically leveraging what the computer is good at and what your brain is good it this may be worth several times its weight in gold but an incredible amount of work lays ahead if you embrace the concept of "EBTA".

 

I'm pretty much sold on the concept.

Edited by darthtrader

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Well, I'm not really sure what you would want as far as an example. It basically gives a primer in bias/heuristics, frequentist statistical analysis, monte carlo vs the bootstrap as far as generating a random system to judge your system against..Its all theoretic though and only scratches the surface..your not really going to be able to do anything with the stuff in this book without alot of heavy lifting on the ideas presented. Its really just a bridge between something like John Murphy's books and the quant world.

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This is one of my favorite books.

 

If you are a discretionary trader stop reading after chapter 1 (or 2, cant recall) where the author talks about bias in marking chart patterns.

 

If you are interested in automated trading or automating your trading it can deliver you solid concepts. That's why I liked it. I also have some seminars by same author on data mining and backtesting traps/mistakes which helped me much.

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Some chapters of this book are required reading for the CMT certification (from the MTA).

 

5. Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals

6. Data-Mining Bias: the Fool’s Gold and Objective TA

7. Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion

 

 

It also is a good primer on statistics, and proper (and improper) backtesting written in an easy understandable style (for the non-statistician).

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The ideas that have been brought up so far are very intriguing. Being a trader that looks as much as the big levels as the small. I would like to get your view of what this book says on how human nature in the marketplace and the natural laws of supply and demand?

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The ideas that have been brought up so far are very intriguing. Being a trader that looks as much as the big levels as the small. I would like to get your view of what this book says on how human nature in the marketplace and the natural laws of supply and demand?

 

This book does not make any attempts to make a study of the things you've mentioned. It only leads you as to how you should go about studying the markets in a statistically relevant fashion.

The title of the book is a little misleading. There are no technical analysis tools mentioned, just a leading of how to properly analyze the validity of your proposed method to see if it might be successful or not.

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The title of the book is a little misleading. There are no technical analysis tools mentioned, just a leading of how to properly analyze the validity of your proposed method to see if it might be successful or not.

 

From what I have read on the free amazon preview it seems to talk about how to really look at a strategy or trading system from an empirical standpoint. I totally agree with that in concept! In my trading endeavors, I have made a semi-automated system that I believe doesn't rely on faith, magic numbers, expert interpretation, or lagging indicators with divergence or only correct after the fact. Rather it calculates and draw these zones the same way every single time. The interesting thing is that as I continue down this road of pure automation I'm wondering if this is a good book that will shed light into good theory of markets for current day market dynamics and how automation should look at the last 10 years of the new "electronic trading era" that we are in or if it still generalizes the topic so much that it's ambitious enough to always be correct. IE: psychic telling you general stuff that could be true of anyone. I noted that it said it looked at 25 years of buy/sells in the S&P. That's all well and good but if the underlying conditions of the marketplace have changed, "electronic trading era", would not half whatever ideas it assumes at the beginning of that time be inconsistent with what we are really seeing on the charts. Frankly, while the S&P/ ES is major market. I personally think that its dynamics are shewed from the norm of almost every other market globally. I don't wish to get on my soapbox about the dangers and traps of the ES.

I have not read the book and would like to know a little more before I buy it off amazon, please enlighten me.

sincerely thank you!

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This book teaches you how to identify problems with your data mining techniques. It also teaches you how to apply a Monte Carlo or bootstrapping technique to your statistical sampling process.

I'm not sure if that's what you're looking for or not. It does not uncover any secret indicators. It simply teaches you how to analyze your own methodology and decide upon it's statistical reliability to be profitable or not.

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The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. dont forget- like subscribe Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com     View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
    • Waiting for one constructive comment from you guys..anyone dont forget to like and subscribe
    • enjoy.. good profits in forex dont forget to like and subscribe          
    • try again..   1. MakingMoneyin ForexTradingTheForexmarkethasadailyvolumeofover $4trillionper day,dwarfingthevolumeof theequityandfuturesmarketscombined.Thousands ofpeople,allover theworld,are tradingForexandmakingtonsofmoney.Whynotyou?All youneedtostarttradingForexis acomputer andanInternetconnection.Youcan doitfrom thecomfortofyour home,inyour sparetimewithoutleavingyour dayjob. Andyoudon'tneedalargesum ofmoneytostart,youcantradeinitially withaminimal sum,or betteroff,youcanstartpracticingwithademoaccountwithouttheneedto depositanymoney.OnceyouconsiderstartingForextrading,oneofthefirstthings youneedtodois chooseabroker,choosingareliablebroker is thesinglemostcriticalfactor toForex success.We currently trade at eToro platform. After testing several Forex platforms we find this one to be the best. What made the difference is a unique feature that allow us to watch and copy the strategies and trades of the best performing traders on the platform. You can actually see each move the "Guru" traders make. This method works nicely for us. Since we started trading at this broker we noticed an increase of our successful trades and profits when compared to our former brokers. You may want to check them out.Please note that all trading involves risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This post is for educational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice.NowIwouldstronglyencourageyoutogoandvisittheabovebroker's siterightnow evenifyouarenotyetdecidedwhether youwanttogointoForextrading.Why? Becauseitprovides tons offreeeducationmaterials,videosandbestofall ademo accountthatallows youtopracticeForextradingforfreewithouttheneedtodeposit anymoney.Simplygotothesite,registerforafreeaccountandstart"trading"-by actuallypracticingandexperiencingitfirsthandyou'll beabletodecidewhether Forex tradingisfor you.Inanycase,beforestartingtotradefor real,itis advisablethatyoupracticewithademo account.Onceyoubuildsomeskill andfeelmorecomfortablewiththesystemyou can starttradinggraduallyfor real money.GotoTo2.WhatisForexTradingForeignexchange,popularlyknownas 'Forex'or 'FX',is thetradeofasinglecurrency for another atadecidedtradepriceontheover-the-counter (OTC)marketplace.Forex is definitelytheworld's mosttradedmarket,havinganaverageturnover ofmorethan US$4trillioneachday.ComparethistotheNewYork Stock Exchange,thathasadailyturnover ofabout US$70billionanditisveryobvious howtheForexmarketisdefinitelythelargest financialmarketontheglobe.Inessence,Forexcurrencytradingis theactofsimultaneouslypurchasingoneforeign currencywhilstsellinganother,mainlyfor thepurposeofspeculation.Foreigncurrency values increase(appreciate) anddrop(depreciate) towards oneanother asaresultof varietyoffactors suchas economics andgeopolitics.ThenormalobjectiveofFXtraders is tomakemoneyfrom thesetypes ofchanges inthevalueofoneforeigncurrency againstanother byactivelyspeculatingonwhichwayforeignexchangerates arelikelytoturninthefuture.Incontrasttothemajorityoffinancialmarkets,theOTC (over-the-counter) currency marketsdoes nothaveanyphysical placeormainexchangeandtrades 24-hours every dayviaaworldwidesystem ofcompanies,financial institutionsandindividuals.Because ofthis,currencyratesarecontinuouslyrisingandfallinginvaluetowards oneanother, providingnumerous tradingchoices.Oneoftheimportantelements regardingForex's popularityis thefactthatcurrency tradingmarkets usuallyareavailable24-hours adayfromSundayeveningrightthrough toFridaynight.Buyingandsellingfollows theclock,beginningonMondaymorningin Wellington,NewZealand,movingontoAsiantradespearheadedfrom Tokyoand Singapore,aheadofgoingtoLondonandconcludingonFridayeveninginNewYork.Thefactthatprices areavailabletodeal 24-hours dailymakes certainthatprice gapping(whenever apriceleapsfrom onelevel toanother withnotradingbetween) is less andmakes surethattraders couldtakeapositioneachtimetheydesire, irrespectiveoftime,eventhoughinrealitythereareparticular 'lull' occasions when volumes tendtobebelowtheir dailyaveragewhichcouldwidenmarketspreads.Forexis aleveraged(or margined) item,whichmeansthatyouaresimplyrequiredto putinasmall percentageofthefull valueofyour positiontosetaforeignexchange trade.Becauseofthis,thechanceofprofit,orloss,fromyour primarymoneyoutlayis considerablygreater thaninconventional trading.Currencies aredesignatedbythreeletter symbols.Thestandardsymbolsfor someof themostcommonlytradedcurrencies are: EUR –EuUSD –UnitedStatesdollar CAD –Canadiandollar GBP–BritishpoundJPY–JapaneseYen AUD –Australiandollar CHF –Swiss francForextransactionsarequotedinpairsbecauseyouarebuyingonecurrencywhile sellinganother.Thefirstcurrencyis thebasecurrencyandthesecondcurrencyis the quotecurrency.Theprice,or rate,thatis quotedistheamountofthesecondcurrencyrequiredto purchaseoneunitofthefirstcurrency.For example,ifEUR/USD has anask priceof1.2327,youcanbuyoneEurofor 1.2327USdollars.Thereareso-calledmajors,for whicharound75%ofallmarketoperations onForexare held:theEUR/USD,GBP/USD,USD/CHF,andUSD/JPY.Aswesee,theUSdollar is representedinall currencypairs,thus,ifacurrencypair contains theUSdollar,this pair is consideredamajorcurrencypair.Pairs whichdonotincludetheUSdollar arecalled cross currencypairs,or cross rates.Thefollowingcross rates arethemostactively traded:EUR/CHF = euro-franc EUR/GBP= euro-sterling EUR/JPY= euro-Yen GBP/JPY= sterling-Yen AUD/JPY= aussie-Yen NZD/JPY= kiwi-YenTogiveyouatasteofwhatis happeningintheForexarenaherearesomehistoricalForexevents.Oneofthemostinterestingmovements intheForexmarketinvolvingtheBritishpound tookplaceintheSeptember16,1992.Thatdayis knownas BlackWednesdaywiththe BritishPoundpostingits biggestfall.Itwas mostlyseenintheGBP/DEM (BritishPound vs.theDeutschemark)andtheGBP/USD (BritishPoundvs.theUSdollar) currency pairs.ThefalloftheBritishpoundagainsttheUSdollar intheperiodfrom November toDecember 1992constituted25%(from2.01to1.51GBThegeneral reasonsfor this "sterlingcrisis"aresaidtobetheparticipationofGreat BritainintheEuropeancurrencysystemwithfixedexchangeratecorridors;recently passedparliamentaryelections;areductionintheBritishindustrialoutput;theBank of Englandeffortstoholdtheparityratefor theDeutschemark,as well as adramatic outflowofinvestors.Atthesametime,duetoaprofitabilityslant,theGermancurrency marketbecamemoreattractivethantheBritishone.All inall,thespeculators were rushingtosellpoundsfor Deutschemarks andfor USdollars.Theconsequencesofthis currencycrisiswereas follows:asharpincreaseintheBritishinterestratefrom 10%to15%,theBritishGovernmenthadtoacceptpounddevaluationandtosecedefrom the EuropeanMonetarySystem.Asaresult,thepoundreturnedtoafloatingexchange rate.Another intriguingcurrencypair is theUSdollar vs.theJapaneseYen(USD/JPY).The USdollar andJapaneseYenis thethirdonthelistofmosttradedcurrencypairs after theEUR/USDandGBP/USD.Itistradedmostactivelyduringsessions inAsia. Movementsofthis pairareusuallysmooth;theUSD/JPYpair quicklyreacts totherisk peakingoffinancialmarkets.From themid80's theYenratings startedrisingactively versus theUSDollar.Intheearly90's aprosperouseconomic developmentturnedinto astandstill inJapan,theunemploymentincreased;earnings andwages slidas well as thelivingstandardsoftheJapanesepopulation.Andfrom thebeginningoftheyear1991,this causedbankruptcies ofnumerousfinancialorganizationsinJapan.As a consequence,thequotes ontheTokyoStockExchangecollapsed,aYendevaluation tookplace,thereafter,anewwaveofbankruptcies amongmanufacturingcompanies began.In1995ahistorical lowoftheUSD/JPYpair was recordedat-79.80.TheabovestartedanAsiancrisis intheyears1997-1998thatledaYencrash.It resultedinatumbleoftheYen-USdollar pair from 115YensforoneUSdollar to150.Theglobaleconomic crisis touchedalmostall fields ofhumanactivities.Forexcurrency marketwas noexception.Though,Forexparticipants (central banks,commercialbanks, investmentbanks,brokers anddealers,pensionfunds,insurancecompaniesand transnational companies) wereinadifficultposition,theForexmarketcontinues to functionsuccessfully,itis astableandprofitableasnever before.Thefinancial crisis of2007has ledtodrasticchanges intheworld's currencies values. Duringthecrisis,theYenstrengthenedmostofall againstall other currencies.Neither theUSdollar,nor theeuro,buttheYenprovedtobethemostreliablecurrency instrumentfor traders.Oneofthereasonsforsuchstrengtheningcanbeattributedto thefactthattraders neededtofindasanctuaryamidamonetarychaos.Askand BidWhentraders wanttoplaceanorder ontheForexmarkettheyshouldbeawareofthe currencypair as well as thepriceofthispair.AForexmarketpriceofacurrencypair is denotedbytwosymbols,Ask andBid,whichhavespecific digitAsk priceis thehighestpriceinthepair’s quotationatwhichatrader buys thecurrency, standingfirstintheabbreviationofthecurrencypair.Consequently,atrader sells the currencystandingsecond.Bidpriceis thelowestpriceinthequotationofthecurrencypair,atwhichatrader sells thecurrencystandingfirstintheabbreviationofthecurrencypair.Respectively,atrader buys thecurrencystandingsecond.Seemcomplicated?here'sanexample:Let's assumethatwehavethecurrencypair ofEUR/USD withthequotationof1.3652/1.3655.Thismeansthatyoucanbuy1eurofor1.3655dollars or tosell1euro for 1.3652dollars.ThedifferencebetweentheBidpriceandtheAsk priceis called spread.Thespreadisactually thecommissionofthebroker.TheSpreadsinForextradingare actuallyverysmall comparedtocurrencyspreads atbanks.Aterm thatyou'll seealotwhiletradingForexis "pip"and"pips"-a“pip” standsfor “PercentageinPoint”.Apipis thesmallestpricemovementofatradedcurrency.Itis alsoreferredtoasa“point”.Itis veryimportantthatyouunderstandwhatapipis inthe Forextradingbecauseyouwill beusingpips incalculatingyour profits andlosses..For mostcurrenciesapipis 0.0001or 1/100ofacent.Whenacurrencymovesfromavalueof1.2911to1.2914,itmoved3pips.Whenapip has avalueof$10,youhavegained$30.Thereis anexceptionfor quotationsfor JapaneseYenagainstothercurrencies.For currencies inrelationtoJapaneseYenapipis 0.01or 1cent.Another termthatyou'll needtounderstandinrelationtoForextradingis “Lots”.Alotis theminimal tradedamountfor eachcurrencytransaction.For regular accounts onelot equals 100,000unitsofthebasecurrency.Howeveryoucanalsoopenminiandmicro accounts thatallowtradinginsmaller lots.Understanding thePip Spread -Thespreadis closelyassociatedwiththepipandhas amajor importanceforyouas atrader.Asmentionedabove,Itis thedifferencebetweenthesellingandthebuyingpriceofacurrencypair.Itis thedifferenceinthebid andask price.Theaskis thepriceatwhichyoubuyandthebidis thepriceatwhichyousell.SupposetheEUR/USDis quotedat1.4502bidand1.4505ask.Inthis casethespread is 3pips.Thepipspreadis your costofdoingbusiness here.Inthecaseaboveitmeans yousustainapaper lossequal to3pips atthemomentyouenter thetrade.Your contracthastoappreciateby3pipsbeforeyoubreakeven.Thelower thepipspreadtheeasier is itfor youtoprofit.Generallythemoreactiveandbigger themarket,thelower thepipspread.Smaller and moreexotic markets tendtohaveahigher spread.Mostbrokers willbeofferingdiffere thats better dont forget to like and subscribe  
    • or how about... 1. MakingMoneyin ForexTradingTheForexmarkethasadailyvolumeofover $4trillionper day,dwarfingthevolumeof theequityandfuturesmarketscombined.Thousands ofpeople,allover theworld,are tradingForexandmakingtonsofmoney.Whynotyou?All youneedtostarttradingForexis acomputer andanInternetconnection.Youcan doitfrom thecomfortofyour home,inyour sparetimewithoutleavingyour dayjob. Andyoudon'tneedalargesum ofmoneytostart,youcantradeinitially withaminimal sum,or betteroff,youcanstartpracticingwithademoaccountwithouttheneedto depositanymoney.OnceyouconsiderstartingForextrading,oneofthefirstthings youneedtodois chooseabroker,choosingareliablebroker is thesinglemostcriticalfactor toForex success.We currently trade at eToro platform. After testing several Forex platforms we find this one to be the best. What made the difference is a unique feature that allow us to watch and copy the strategies and trades of the best performing traders on the platform. You can actually see each move the "Guru" traders make. This method works nicely for us. Since we started trading at this broker we noticed an increase of our successful trades and profits when compared to our former brokers. You may want to check them out.Please note that all trading involves risk. Only risk capital you're prepared to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This post is for educational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice.NowIwouldstronglyencourageyoutogoandvisittheabovebroker's siterightnow evenifyouarenotyetdecidedwhether youwanttogointoForextrading.Why? Becauseitprovides tons offreeeducationmaterials,videosandbestofall ademo accountthatallows youtopracticeForextradingforfreewithouttheneedtodeposit anymoney.Simplygotothesite,registerforafreeaccountandstart"trading"-by actuallypracticingandexperiencingitfirsthandyou'll beabletodecidewhether Forex tradingisfor you.Inanycase,beforestartingtotradefor real,itis advisablethatyoupracticewithademo account.Onceyoubuildsomeskill andfeelmorecomfortablewiththesystemyou can starttradinggraduallyfor real money.GotoTop           2.WhatisForexTradingForeignexchange,popularlyknownas 'Forex'or 'FX',is thetradeofasinglecurrency for another atadecidedtradepriceontheover-the-counter (OTC)marketplace.Forex is definitelytheworld's mosttradedmarket,havinganaverageturnover ofmorethan US$4trillioneachday.ComparethistotheNewYork Stock Exchange,thathasadailyturnover ofabout US$70billionanditisveryobvious howtheForexmarketisdefinitelythelargest financialmarketontheglobe.Inessence,Forexcurrencytradingis theactofsimultaneouslypurchasingoneforeign currencywhilstsellinganother,mainlyfor thepurposeofspeculation.Foreigncurrency values increase(appreciate) anddrop(depreciate) towards oneanother asaresultof varietyoffactors suchas economics andgeopolitics.ThenormalobjectiveofFXtraders is tomakemoneyfrom thesetypes ofchanges inthevalueofoneforeigncurrency againstanother byactivelyspeculatingonwhichwayforeignexchangerates arelikelytoturninthefuture.Incontrasttothemajorityoffinancialmarkets,theOTC (over-the-counter) currency marketsdoes nothaveanyphysical placeormainexchangeandtrades 24-hours every dayviaaworldwidesystem ofcompanies,financial institutionsandindividuals.Because ofthis,currencyratesarecontinuouslyrisingandfallinginvaluetowards oneanother, providingnumerous tradingchoices.Oneoftheimportantelements regardingForex's popularityis thefactthatcurrency tradingmarkets usuallyareavailable24-hours adayfromSundayeveningrightthrough toFridaynight.Buyingandsellingfollows theclock,beginningonMondaymorningin Wellington,NewZealand,movingontoAsiantradespearheadedfrom Tokyoand Singapore,aheadofgoingtoLondonandconcludingonFridayeveninginNewYork.Thefactthatprices areavailabletodeal 24-hours dailymakes certainthatprice gapping(whenever apriceleapsfrom onelevel toanother withnotradingbetween) is less andmakes surethattraders couldtakeapositioneachtimetheydesire, irrespectiveoftime,eventhoughinrealitythereareparticular 'lull' occasions when volumes tendtobebelowtheir dailyaveragewhichcouldwidenmarketspreads.Forexis aleveraged(or margined) item,whichmeansthatyouaresimplyrequiredto putinasmall percentageofthefull valueofyour positiontosetaforeignexchange trade.Becauseofthis,thechanceofprofit,orloss,fromyour primarymoneyoutlayis considerablygreater thaninconventional trading.Currencies aredesignatedbythreeletter symbols.Thestandardsymbolsfor someof themostcommonlytradedcurrencies are: EUR –Euros   USD –UnitedStatesdollar CAD –Canadiandollar GBP–BritishpoundJPY–JapaneseYen AUD –Australiandollar CHF –Swiss francForextransactionsarequotedinpairsbecauseyouarebuyingonecurrencywhile sellinganother.Thefirstcurrencyis thebasecurrencyandthesecondcurrencyis the quotecurrency.Theprice,or rate,thatis quotedistheamountofthesecondcurrencyrequiredto purchaseoneunitofthefirstcurrency.For example,ifEUR/USD has anask priceof1.2327,youcanbuyoneEurofor 1.2327USdollars.Thereareso-calledmajors,for whicharound75%ofallmarketoperations onForexare held:theEUR/USD,GBP/USD,USD/CHF,andUSD/JPY.Aswesee,theUSdollar is representedinall currencypairs,thus,ifacurrencypair contains theUSdollar,this pair is consideredamajorcurrencypair.Pairs whichdonotincludetheUSdollar arecalled cross currencypairs,or cross rates.Thefollowingcross rates arethemostactively traded:EUR/CHF = euro-franc EUR/GBP= euro-sterling EUR/JPY= euro-Yen GBP/JPY= sterling-Yen AUD/JPY= aussie-Yen NZD/JPY= kiwi-YenTogiveyouatasteofwhatis happeningintheForexarenaherearesomehistoricalForexevents.Oneofthemostinterestingmovements intheForexmarketinvolvingtheBritishpound tookplaceintheSeptember16,1992.Thatdayis knownas BlackWednesdaywiththe BritishPoundpostingits biggestfall.Itwas mostlyseenintheGBP/DEM (BritishPound vs.theDeutschemark)andtheGBP/USD (BritishPoundvs.theUSdollar) currency pairs.ThefalloftheBritishpoundagainsttheUSdollar intheperiodfrom November toDecember 1992constituted25%(from2.01to1.51GBP/USD).     Thegeneral reasonsfor this "sterlingcrisis"aresaidtobetheparticipationofGreat BritainintheEuropeancurrencysystemwithfixedexchangeratecorridors;recently passedparliamentaryelections;areductionintheBritishindustrialoutput;theBank of Englandeffortstoholdtheparityratefor theDeutschemark,as well as adramatic outflowofinvestors.Atthesametime,duetoaprofitabilityslant,theGermancurrency marketbecamemoreattractivethantheBritishone.All inall,thespeculators were rushingtosellpoundsfor Deutschemarks andfor USdollars.Theconsequencesofthis currencycrisiswereas follows:asharpincreaseintheBritishinterestratefrom 10%to15%,theBritishGovernmenthadtoacceptpounddevaluationandtosecedefrom the EuropeanMonetarySystem.Asaresult,thepoundreturnedtoafloatingexchange rate.Another intriguingcurrencypair is theUSdollar vs.theJapaneseYen(USD/JPY).The USdollar andJapaneseYenis thethirdonthelistofmosttradedcurrencypairs after theEUR/USDandGBP/USD.Itistradedmostactivelyduringsessions inAsia. Movementsofthis pairareusuallysmooth;theUSD/JPYpair quicklyreacts totherisk peakingoffinancialmarkets.From themid80's theYenratings startedrisingactively versus theUSDollar.Intheearly90's aprosperouseconomic developmentturnedinto astandstill inJapan,theunemploymentincreased;earnings andwages slidas well as thelivingstandardsoftheJapanesepopulation.Andfrom thebeginningoftheyear1991,this causedbankruptcies ofnumerousfinancialorganizationsinJapan.As a consequence,thequotes ontheTokyoStockExchangecollapsed,aYendevaluation tookplace,thereafter,anewwaveofbankruptcies amongmanufacturingcompanies began.In1995ahistorical lowoftheUSD/JPYpair was recordedat-79.80.TheabovestartedanAsiancrisis intheyears1997-1998thatledaYencrash.It resultedinatumbleoftheYen-USdollar pair from 115YensforoneUSdollar to150.Theglobaleconomic crisis touchedalmostall fields ofhumanactivities.Forexcurrency marketwas noexception.Though,Forexparticipants (central banks,commercialbanks, investmentbanks,brokers anddealers,pensionfunds,insurancecompaniesand transnational companies) wereinadifficultposition,theForexmarketcontinues to functionsuccessfully,itis astableandprofitableasnever before.Thefinancial crisis of2007has ledtodrasticchanges intheworld's currencies values. Duringthecrisis,theYenstrengthenedmostofall againstall other currencies.Neither theUSdollar,nor theeuro,buttheYenprovedtobethemostreliablecurrency instrumentfor traders.Oneofthereasonsforsuchstrengtheningcanbeattributedto thefactthattraders neededtofindasanctuaryamidamonetarychaos.Askand BidWhentraders wanttoplaceanorder ontheForexmarkettheyshouldbeawareofthe currencypair as well as thepriceofthispair.AForexmarketpriceofacurrencypair is denotedbytwosymbols,Ask andBid,whichhavespecific digital notations.     Ask priceis thehighestpriceinthepair’s quotationatwhichatrader buys thecurrency, standingfirstintheabbreviationofthecurrencypair.Consequently,atrader sells the currencystandingsecond.Bidpriceis thelowestpriceinthequotationofthecurrencypair,atwhichatrader sells thecurrencystandingfirstintheabbreviationofthecurrencypair.Respectively,atrader buys thecurrencystandingsecond.Seemcomplicated?here'sanexample:Let's assumethatwehavethecurrencypair ofEUR/USD withthequotationof1.3652/1.3655.Thismeansthatyoucanbuy1eurofor1.3655dollars or tosell1euro for 1.3652dollars.ThedifferencebetweentheBidpriceandtheAsk priceis called spread.Thespreadisactually thecommissionofthebroker.TheSpreadsinForextradingare actuallyverysmall comparedtocurrencyspreads atbanks.Aterm thatyou'll seealotwhiletradingForexis "pip"and"pips"-a“pip” standsfor “PercentageinPoint”.Apipis thesmallestpricemovementofatradedcurrency.Itis alsoreferredtoasa“point”.Itis veryimportantthatyouunderstandwhatapipis inthe Forextradingbecauseyouwill beusingpips incalculatingyour profits andlosses..For mostcurrenciesapipis 0.0001or 1/100ofacent.Whenacurrencymovesfromavalueof1.2911to1.2914,itmoved3pips.Whenapip has avalueof$10,youhavegained$30.Thereis anexceptionfor quotationsfor JapaneseYenagainstothercurrencies.For currencies inrelationtoJapaneseYenapipis 0.01or 1cent.Another termthatyou'll needtounderstandinrelationtoForextradingis “Lots”.Alotis theminimal tradedamountfor eachcurrencytransaction.For regular accounts onelot equals 100,000unitsofthebasecurrency.Howeveryoucanalsoopenminiandmicro accounts thatallowtradinginsmaller lots.Understanding thePip Spread -Thespreadis closelyassociatedwiththepipandhas amajor importanceforyouas atrader.Asmentionedabove,Itis thedifferencebetweenthesellingandthebuyingpriceofacurrencypair.Itis thedifferenceinthebid andask price.Theaskis thepriceatwhichyoubuyandthebidis thepriceatwhichyousell.SupposetheEUR/USDis quotedat1.4502bidand1.4505ask.Inthis casethespread is 3pips.Thepipspreadis your costofdoingbusiness here.Inthecaseaboveitmeans yousustainapaper lossequal to3pips atthemomentyouenter thetrade.Your contracthastoappreciateby3pipsbeforeyoubreakeven.Thelower thepipspreadtheeasier is itfor youtoprofit.Generallythemoreactiveandbigger themarket,thelower thepipspread.Smaller and moreexotic markets tendtohaveahigher spread.Mostbrokers willbeofferingdifferent  
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