Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

analyst75

Why Elliott Waves Is Not Useful?

Recommended Posts

I have been corresponding with a mathematically oriented gentleman who is quite brilliant in his approach to the markets but who is very close to going off the deep end. He wrote me the following email:

 

"I have given the 45 degree - phenomenon a lot of thought. I pretty much would like to know how you figure out the inner workings.

 

"What I think is:

 

"(a) The route of the 45 degree cuts the Elliot 3 pivot and the 4 reverse pivot in half. The retracing swing from 3 to 4 (starting off with what looks like a congestion) is the playing field of the insiders. It quickly develops into a squeeze to the downside before the final 5th wave shoots up.

 

"(b) Those who know what is happening, take full advantage of the less informed by jumping on their resting orders. The key is the knowledge that the 5th wave lies ahead. Then the load of contracts could be transferred to the public's 'greed-panic.'"

 

While I would like to agree with what he has stated above, I'm not really sure of what he actually said: Are you? I submitted the following answer:

 

I know virtually nothing about how to count Elliott waves or the meaning of Elliott wave counts. I have no reason to believe in them and many reasons to believe that they are nothing more than what is stated about Elliott Waves. It is a THEORY. Personally, I want to trade based on facts and the reality of what I'm seeing. My belief that Elliott Waves are virtually worthless comes from the results others have obtained from following them. I am very familiar with these results. I know that Elliott practitioners have been dead wrong about the stock market for multiple years running. Elliott wavers missed the bull market of the 1990s. I know that many times they wrongly predicted the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar. I know that people who follow Elliott Wave Theory were wrong about gold and silver for many years, predicting rises as those metals fell to multi-year lows. It is difficult for me to understand why anyone would want to trade based on a theory when they could trade based on what is plainly seen in the markets.

 

Author: Joe Ross

 

 

Profits from games of knowledge: https://www.predictmag.com/    

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what do you propose as an alternate?   You mention

On 6/17/2021 at 6:14 PM, analyst75 said:

I have no reason to believe in them and many reasons to believe that they are nothing more than what is stated about Elliott Waves. It is a THEORY. Personally, I want to trade based on facts and the reality of what I'm seeing. .......[snip]..............It is difficult for me to understand why anyone would want to trade based on a theory when they could trade based on what is plainly seen in the markets.

 

So you care to share a synopsis of your theory (or theorem) and why it may be superior?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ...

Quote

So what do you propose as an alternate?   

One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer.  Ask  even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets. 

 

 

 

 

First a few comments about Elliott Wave

Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics.  Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold -  wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns...

Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE.  (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways...

Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics  to trading   - and  yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word.  Imo, it’s a jump too far.   First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously  'corrupted'.   And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like.   It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because  crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.)  

If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie  the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume. 

I’ve described it differently in other posts*  ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold.   It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change.  At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable.  Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold.  Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc

 

 

 

... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate?

Long ago I read Hurst.  In a short section of his book he mentioned it.  It didn’t sink in.  Then one day it really hit me.  There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ...

 

* fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums?

...

other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022

 

 

 

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/17/2021 at 4:14 PM, analyst75 said:

I have been corresponding with a mathematically oriented gentleman who is quite brilliant in his approach to the markets but who is very close to going off the deep end. He wrote me the following email:

 

"I have given the 45 degree - phenomenon a lot of thought. I pretty much would like to know how you figure out the inner workings.

 

"What I think is:

 

"(a) The route of the 45 degree cuts the Elliot 3 pivot and the 4 reverse pivot in half. The retracing swing from 3 to 4 (starting off with what looks like a congestion) is the playing field of the insiders. It quickly develops into a squeeze to the downside before the final 5th wave shoots up.

 

"(b) Those who know what is happening, take full advantage of the less informed by jumping on their resting orders. The key is the knowledge that the 5th wave lies ahead. Then the load of contracts could be transferred to the public's 'greed-panic.'"

 

While I would like to agree with what he has stated above, I'm not really sure of what he actually said: Are you? I submitted the following answer:

 

I know virtually nothing about how to count Elliott waves or the meaning of Elliott wave counts. I have no reason to believe in them and many reasons to believe that they are nothing more than what is stated about Elliott Waves. It is a THEORY. Personally, I want to trade based on facts and the reality of what I'm seeing. My belief that Elliott Waves are virtually worthless comes from the results others have obtained from following them. I am very familiar with these results. I know that Elliott practitioners have been dead wrong about the stock market for multiple years running. Elliott wavers missed the bull market of the 1990s. I know that many times they wrongly predicted the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar. I know that people who follow Elliott Wave Theory were wrong about gold and silver for many years, predicting rises as those metals fell to multi-year lows. It is difficult for me to understand why anyone would want to trade based on a theory when they could trade based on what is plainly seen in the markets.

 

Author: Joe Ross

 

 

Profits from games of knowledge: https://www.predictmag.com/    

 

Agree after testing Elliot Waves for three months I returned to S/R trading with Hotforex using RSI as confirmation signal and trading returns went into green again. This was pricey experiment so stick to your approach if it works, lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 19th October 2021. Market Update – October 19 – USD & Yields Cool, Tech Recovers. USD (USDIndex 93.60) slips -0.6% (-1.0% from last week’s highs) Weak US Industrial production. Yields also slipped and Stocks moved higher led by big tech. Commodities stronger lifting AUD & NZD (RBNZ to move +50bps Nov.24?). APPLE launched new Mac Books with new self-built powerful chips, Bezos, “may have lied to Congress”, FB to recruit 10k in EU to build “Metaverse”. Japanese General Election 31/10, confirmed. NK fire more ballistics into S. China Sea. Evergrande – sentiment lifts a tad – they will pay some onshore coupons today. US Yields (10yr closed 1.584%) down from 1.624% highs, trades at 1.576% Equities moved higher but lost momentum USA500 +15 (+0.34%) at 4486 (NASDAQ +0.84%) – Big movers – TSLA +3.21% & FB +3.26%. USA500.F higher into 4483. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.56%) VIX closed down again at 16.77 (new 8 week low) – trades weaker at 16.50 now. USOil back at yet another new 7-yr high, trades at $83.00. Gold lifts on weaker USD & lower yields up to $1777 now from yesterday’s test of the key $1760 support level. FX markets – a weaker USD has – EURUSD 1.1655 Cable at 4-week highs 1.3775 (Bailey up again today) & USDJPY holds 114.00. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, as are US futures. Eurozone peripherals are also vulnerable amid the ebb on flow of opinions on how to strengthen and maintain flexibility in existing asset purchase programs after the scheduled end of PEPP. Against that background the flood of BoE and ECB speakers today will be watched very carefully, especially as the data calendar is pretty empty. Stock market sentiment strengthened overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in U.S. futures. Today – US Building Permits & Housing Starts, ECB’s Elderson, Panetta, Lane, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Harker, Daly, Bostic, Waller. Earnings – Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G, Netflix, Halliburton, United Airlines, Danone, Ericsson (out already a big beat), Kering. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.28%) 5th consecutive day higher today breached 0.7100 earlier, and testing 0.7150 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 81.00 OB but still moving higher, Stochs. 96 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • GOLD (XAUUSD) REBOUNDS ABOVE $1,757 SUPPORT, RESUMES UPTREND Key Resistance Levels: $1,900, $1,950, $2000 Key Support Levels: $1,750, $1, 700,$1,650 Gold (XAUUSD) Long-term Trend: Ranging On October 13, the Gold (XAUUSD) price broke above the moving averages and retested the 50-day SMA. This is an indication that the market is likely to rise on the upside. The uptrend is likely to resume on the upside after retesting the 50-day SMA. The market will rise to retest the $1,820 overhead resistance. XAUUSD will have an accelerated price movement if the resistance is breached. Gold price will retest the previous high of $1,920. On the other hand, the range-bound move will continue if Gold faces rejection at $1,820 resistance. XAUUSD – Daily Chart   Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping horizontally indicating the sideways trend. Gold is at level 53 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. Gold is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. Gold is capable of rising on the upside. Gold (XAUUSD) Medium-term bias: Bullish On the 4 hour chart, the Gold price rebounded above $1,757 support and rallied to the high of $1,800. The market has reached the overbought region of the market. Sellers have emerged to push prices down. Meanwhile, on October 13 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that Gold will rise to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or $1,818.70 . XAUUSD – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading Gold is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It is in a bearish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) Gold’s (XAUUSD) price has resumed an uptrend after breaking above the moving averages. The current uptrend is likely to reach a high of $1,820.Gold may face another rejection at the $1,820 resistance.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • XAGUSD Price Analysis – October 19 Silver (XAG) positive fortunes faded around the $23.50 mark, with the price erasing its most recent thrilling bounce above the moving average of 13. During the Monday session, the commodity rose slightly and was last seen lingering near day highs in the $23.22 -$23.40 range. Key Levels Resistance Levels: $24.50, $24.00, $23.50 Support Levels: $22.87, $22.10, $21. 42 XAGUSD Long term Trend: Ranging Today, the white metal has struggled and it’s unable to break above the top range of the surge around $23.50, it is currently trading in the red at $23.22 per ounce. Beyond the $23.50 mark, the bulls may regain a stronger grasp. The XAGUSD pair is held by the rebound trend and the trend may remain in a recovery mode. A closing above today’s upper range, currently at $23.45, might signal a low rebound from the $21.42 level continuation of the rally that began in late September, paving the way for a break beyond the $23.50 barrier. XAGUSD Short term Trend: Ranging Silver (XAG) has a greater range on the 4-hour time frame from late September lows at a level of $21.42, suggesting potential upside. As a result, the metal continues to climb. It has already broken through the previous high of $23.00, signaling that the next upward phase is underway. The pair is expected to find support at $22.87, and a break of that level might take it to the next level of $22.10 support. The pair is expected to hit its initial critical resistance around $23.50, with a break taking it to the next level of resistance at $24.00.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 18th October 2021. Market Update – October 18 – China Slows – Risk-Off to start the week. USD (USDIndex 94.10) holds at highs, Weak data from China (Q3 GDP 0.2% vs 0.5% & Ind. Production 3.1% vs 4.5%) Big misses, Risk-Off tone to start the week. Oil continues to move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (again) US 10yr at 1.6%. NZD moves higher – (CPI 2.2% vs. 1.4% & Services PMI’s 46.9 vs 35.6) Auckland lockdown extended. PBOC breaks silence on Evergrande -“can contain contagion”: Risks are (1) other Real Estate Co’s & (2) Wider Economy. US Yields (10yr closed 1.576%) now at 1.60% in Asian trades. Equities moved strongly higher into close. USA500 +33.0 (+0.75%) at 4471 (Dow +1.0%) – Big movers AMZN & MasterCard +3.3%, TSLA +3.0% & BAC +2.8%, FB -1.15%, MRNA -2.31%. USA500.F dips to 4446. Asian equities lower on China news. VIX closed -2.56% at 17.00 (8 week low) – trades up at 17.35 now. USOil back to test new 7-yr highs, trades at $82.75. Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1763 now from Thursday’s test of $1800. FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1573 Cable holds 1.3720 (Bailey ‘will have to act’ to curb inflation) & USDJPY higher again at 114.25. Week Ahead – Inflation and PMI data dominate the economic releases, Earnings highlights include: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, (Squid Games to add $900m in Revenue?) Verizon, IBM, Intel, Tesla, (Musk joined 200+ VW exec’s over weekend) & AT&T. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -53 ticks at 169.05, underperforming versus Treasury futures and pointing to another sharp rise in cash yields at the start of the session. Comments from BoE’s Bailey, will add to pressure in the European part of the session. UK money markets are increasingly pricing in a move from the BoE this year, which is leaving bond market traders worrying about stagflation risks. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.1%. Today – US Industrial Production, Fed’s Quarles, BoC’s Lane, & BOE’s Cunliffe. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from 1.2335 lows on Friday to test 1.2400 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 64.00 & moving higher, Stochs. 95 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.00826. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Forex trading is the best way to make some good money online, but you need to have proper skills to achieve success and for that you should practice trading with small capitals.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.