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Dogpile

Taylor Trading Technique

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I do think there is a strong argument that his (T's) price action stuff is more important than perhaps is given credit.

 

I agree. I've been trading TTT for fair amount of time. I have always found that most folks who fail to understand Taylor fail largely because they are fixated on the cycle, rather than on how Taylor uses where price is in relation to Support and Resistance. For example, I have rarely, if ever, read anyone here mention the "objective Point," a concept Taylor uses without which you will not succeed with Taylor's method, at least not as Taylor himself understood his own teachings.

 

It is precisely this failure to appreciate Taylor's understanding of trading price action that leads folks to assume that the cycle needs repeatedly to be "re-set" or "adjusted" as George Angell famously (or infamously) suggested is necessary.

 

If one were instead to view the cycle not as a set of strict trading rules, but rather as Taylor intended it, i.e. as a critical apparatus through which to view and interpret price action around significant support and resistance levels, i.e. Taylor's objective points, then one would also no doubt understand that for Taylor it is not nearly so simple as buying on Buy Day, selling on Selling Day, and shorting on Short Sale Day.

 

Indeed, a close reading of Taylor will reveal that Taylor clearly (insofar as he can be accused of clarity at all) taught that the trader will at times buy on a Short Sale day and Sell Short on a Buy Day, but unlike George Angell and more than a few forum posters, both here at TL and elsewhere, those circumstances do not override the trading cycle. For example, let me quote Taylor concerning just such circumstances:

 

1) "In the case of a Higher Buying Day Low, the stock or future shows support causing a rally and a strong close on the Short Sale Day - the decline from this rally, next day, on the Buying Day, fails to sell down to the previous low - the Short Sale Day Low - this rally on the Short Sale day is an indication of a Higher Buy Day Bottom"

and

 

2) "A Short Sale put out at the High of a Buying Day made FIRSTon the penetration of the Short Sale Day High, should be covered on the reaction ... for short selling on the Buying Day High made FIRST is generally a weak short sale."

 

To really benefit from Taylor's method, one needs to see that the cycle, in and of itself, is useless without an accute awareness of price - especially where price is in relation to the open, and more importantly, where price is in relation to immediately prior highs and prior lows and previous closes. After all, what does Taylor keep in his book but a record of PRICE high, PRICE low, and the closing PRICE, and whether PRICE made its high or low first.

 

The primary data from which all else in his Book (meaning the hand written Book he kept for trading and not the book he published about his method) consists of (Surprise! Surpise!) volume, opening price, high price, low price, and closing price. As is the case with all indicators, methods, systems, etc. anything that may be useful to making trading decisions will be derived from price. The true value and genius of Taylor's method, properly applied, is that it focuses the trader on specific price levels and price action, i.e. how price behaves around those levels, and how to anticipate in which direction the path of least resistance lay.

 

As an aside, when Ed Dobson chose to publish Taylor's method, he did no one anywhere any favors by not only publishing Angell's and Raschke's interpretations of the method in the same volume, but then he went farther by suggesting in the publisher's forward that readers skip reading Taylor first, if not altogether, and simply read Angell's and Raschke's essays! What a mistake!

 

This is, no doubt, one reason why most traders who approach Taylor become enamored of the trading cycle, and ignore price action, support and resistance, completly ignoring Taylor's objective points, as Angell in particular focuses squarely on the trading cycle in his essay on Taylor's method.

 

Of course, another reason so many focus on the cycle and not the whole of Taylor's discussion on trading price action is that traders always want the easy money. How nice would it be if it really were so simple as buying on a buy day, holding overnight and selling soon after the open on the selling day for a nice profit, and then go short on the short sale day, cover at the close, again for a nice profit, and then start it all over again the next day by again going long on the subsequent buy day! If only trading were that easy!

 

Angell was the one who first suggested that cycles need to be shifted from time to time. Let us all remember that Angell was selling a primitive computer software program using the Taylor method (dubbed LSS by Angell) and as Taylor's method is a discretionary method, Angell's project to automate trading signals from Taylor necessarily broke down.

Angell could only make his program marginally salable by allowing the program to periodically re-set its cycle. The Book Method, you see, is meant for human intelligence, not artificial intelligence.

 

As a further aside, anyone interested can quickly verify that Angell was fined by the CFTC/NFA (http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4628-02.htm) for his sale of and claims made on behalf of his LSS method and his computerized trading system. Why anyone would depend upon an essay that was originally intended as a piece of sales literature for what amounted to a faulty and fraudulent computer trading system scheme for his or her understanding of Taylor's (a real trader, by the way) method is beyond me. But those who insist that the cycle is anything other than a three day affair, or that it otherwise is in constant need of periodic adjustment is doing preciely that - interpreting Taylor's Trading Method through the lens of a fraud and a propagandist.

 

In the end, it is always all about price.

 

If its not about price, then it is about fear, greed, and EGO.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited by thalestrader
typos, typos everywhere

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For those of you that are tired like me of this pissing contest and want to discuss the Taylor Trading Technique, you are more than welcome to join me on this forum. Day Trading Forum - Taylor Trading Technique

 

Yes I am the moderator and all of you know I do have a business. One thing I don’t do is put pressure on people to take or not to take my services. There are contributors on my forum that are not customers and we have nice exchanges.

 

It would be great if we could all get along here but it looks like it is not going to happen. This is probably my last post here as I hate wasting time reading posts that are just :crap: .

 

This was a great forum and I found some great explanations by Dogpile, Frank, Why?, and many more. Frank has brought comparisons between Taylor and Market profile and now brings statistics on the time of day when highs or lows are made. Blowfish wants to discuss price action, etc. All these discussions are helpful and could be useful. However a lot of the last exchanges have been useless.

 

PS. As I was writing this post, I just read ThalesTraders post and that is what I consider constructive.

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I agree. I've been trading TTT for fair amount of time. I have always found that most folks who fail to understand Taylor fail largely because they are fixated on the cycle, rather than on how Taylor uses where price is in relation to Support and Resistance. For example, I have rarely, if ever, read anyone here mention the "objective Point," a concept Taylor uses without which you will not succeed with Taylor's method, at least not as Taylor himself understood his own teachings.

 

Objective levels, Zero Decline, Zero Rally can only be discussed and has meaning only if the cycle is kept intact as per Taylor Methodology and then the different rules for trading the same day (buy,sell or ss) can be implemented depending on whether the market is in sideways or trending mode(up or down).

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Well anybody who claims to have read Taylor's work in an hour will come away with an understanding commensurate with the effort.

 

It took me more than a year to get my head around it.

 

L. Raschke's version is a short cut , she may be just hot air, but she employs all kinds of indicators, pinball momentum etc.

 

G. Angell, again short cut variation, completely remote from taylor's essence, have his book and tape, doubt if he traded at all this way, know he was embroiled in a court case

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.... you are out of hand....

 

.... idiotic post my friend....

 

Because this is a forum. A forum is a medium for open discussion, the voicing of ideas and opinions.

 

If you would like to exclude people by their level of knowledge or any other criteria you might have, Trader Laboratory supports private threads, perhaps that might suite your purposes better? Probably a private mailing list would be even better, you can set them up so you have complete editorial control and can censor to your hearts content. Perhaps you could have some sort of test procedure to ensure people have an adequate level of knowledge? You could also summarily ban people for suggesting sticking to a single cycle.

 

Oh btw when you mention pissing contests in 9 posts within couple of days I think it is clear who has their fly undone here. I will have a side bet, you will have to have the last word on this, you might want to look up hypocrisy when you look up forum.

 

I will re-iterate my Taylor hunch. Three different people can use 3 different books and still enjoy success. This seem to me to strongly suggest it is Taylors price action observations that are the key to success with his method? .....Of course...... as I am not elovemer.......my ideas.......are not worth a ...... ......

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....what else are you doing with you post.... ?

 

....except claiming that your way is..... THE WAY ?

 

.... this argument about how to interpret this.... could go on forever... as long as people like you keep saying you are right and everyone who disagrees with you is wrong....

....it seems to me like you are doing exactly what you are accusing others of doing ... with yet ANOTHER PERSONAL POST ....

 

...idiotic...

.... focus on your own methods... and don't try to tell others that they are wrong

 

.... don't worry about this thread coming to a halt.... it seems that since MONAD started this personal posting style.....

.... all the people who were lurking before... have something to say ....

 

... and there are now more posts on this thread than ever.... unlike when i was the only one posting here... begging people to post their OWN METHODS......

 

 

1. There is a failure here to grasp that this site was setup by Soultrader so that both experienced and inexperienced traders including neewbies can learn and exchange trading methods, ideas, individual style of trading etc. Inevitably this leads to clash of egos as has happened on VSA,Wyckoff and other threads.

However here it appears that one person is brushing aside everybody else and IMO a very swift way of bringing the thread to a grinding halt.

 

2. I have studied Taylor in depth and like to think have sound grasp of the subject matter but like you Blowfish have refrained from entering into these non-productive and unnecessarily extended exchanges.

 

3. This thread is only about trading via Taylor's methodology, there is no "My method" or post " Your method"

 

4. The following is taken from POST 695:

refer to Taylor's Book, Chapter 2, p15 "We are not concerned with how the book started on the first day, whether it was a Buy, Sell or Short Sale.

The book is always kept in this order, never change the continuity and there are no lines left open for Sundays or Holidays, the market is considered as a series of continuous sessions without a break.

 

WHICH PART OF THIS IS DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND

 

5) POST 700

We consider 3 days as a trading cycle—the 4th and 5th days are the (1st) and (2nd) days of a new cycle. We use the 1st day for buying and the 2nd and 3rd days for selling.

 

Therefore the cycle does not change but only the way to trade it.

 

In this post which is the essence of Taylor, it is clearly explained that yes in an uptrend or downtrend the swings will vary i.e number of updays and downdays, however once the book is made the sequence of Buy, sell and SS day does not change.

To account for the extended trading range, there are specific rules in place to trade e.g Buy violation in a downtrend etc, in other words the way to trade a particular day changes although the day is still a buy day or sell day or ss day.

If you shift or shuffle the day, then the rules have no meaning whatsoever.

 

6. The following is from POST 706

 

... on a 3 day cycle... in an uptrend... there is one down day ..... and two up days...

... on a 3 day cycle in a down trend... there is one up day .... and two down days....

.... this is a very simple concept....?????

 

Where does Taylor ever say that??

 

THIS HAS NOT BEEN ANSWERED

 

7. There are many who have modified the core method to adopt their own style of trading, Dogpile, Frank, Linda Rashcke, G. Angell, that is fine, however they don't insist that everybody else is wrong or have not read the book or are not traders etc

 

Anyway from the way this is going, it is doubtful anybody would want to continue posting here to discuss and gain clarity on the method which to me is a comprehensive way of trading to catch the main trend of the day as per the rules and ignore the cross currents that occur whole day long.

 

There are a number of contributors here who have made selfless attempts to explain and elaborate on the method and are not so called "Gurus" otherwise Eiger would be a VSA guru and Dbphoenix would be a Wyckoff guru and Brownsfan would be Candlestick charting Guru:)))

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....apologize to who and for what ?

 

... instead of personal posting... . why don't you just post about your own trading methods..... ??

 

... even if they are minimally linked to TTT ....

 

My couple of posts did not really help matters so in the interest of preserving the peace I apologise.

I do think there is a strong argument that his (T's) price action stuff is more important than perhaps is given credit. I will continue to lurk and see if that is addressed over time.

 

Cheers.

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.... listen joker.....

.... i have never claimed to be in-the-know.... or to be more right than anyone else......

 

.... the point i was trying to make was....

.... if you want to post about Taylor methods.... why not take an hour to read the darn thing.....

.... instead of starting your post of with stating that you are not familiar with the work at all.....

 

.... it only makes sense that if this is a TTT forum .... one should at least read the material once.... since it takes a minimal time investment to accomplish the read....

 

.... another reason for my post... as i have already stated ... is that your post was nothing but personal in nature.... and therefore to be treated as coming from a joker.....

..... jokers make personal posts.... traders don't care about personal posting....

 

Because this is a forum. A forum is a medium for open discussion, the voicing of ideas and opinions.

..

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....listen joke boy.....

... if you only want to make another personal post directed at me....

 

... why not contact me in a private message..... ???

 

... that why you don't waste any more space on this thread.....

 

 

 

1. There is a failure here to grasp that this site was setup by Soultrader so that both experienced and inexperienced traders including neewbies can learn and exchange trading methods, ideas, individual style of trading etc. Inevitably this leads to clash of egos as has happened on VSA,Wyckoff and other threads.

However here it appears that one person is brushing aside everybody else and IMO a very swift way of bringing the thread to a grinding halt.

 

2. I have studied Taylor in depth and like to think have sound grasp of the subject matter but like you Blowfish have refrained from entering into these non-productive and unnecessarily extended exchanges.

 

3. This thread is only about trading via Taylor's methodology, there is no "My method" or post " Your method"

 

4. The following is taken from POST 695:

refer to Taylor's Book, Chapter 2, p15 "We are not concerned with how the book started on the first day, whether it was a Buy, Sell or Short Sale.

The book is always kept in this order, never change the continuity and there are no lines left open for Sundays or Holidays, the market is considered as a series of continuous sessions without a break.

 

WHICH PART OF THIS IS DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND

 

5) POST 700

We consider 3 days as a trading cycle—the 4th and 5th days are the (1st) and (2nd) days of a new cycle. We use the 1st day for buying and the 2nd and 3rd days for selling.

 

Therefore the cycle does not change but only the way to trade it.

 

In this post which is the essence of Taylor, it is clearly explained that yes in an uptrend or downtrend the swings will vary i.e number of updays and downdays, however once the book is made the sequence of Buy, sell and SS day does not change.

To account for the extended trading range, there are specific rules in place to trade e.g Buy violation in a downtrend etc, in other words the way to trade a particular day changes although the day is still a buy day or sell day or ss day.

If you shift or shuffle the day, then the rules have no meaning whatsoever.

 

6. The following is from POST 706

 

... on a 3 day cycle... in an uptrend... there is one down day ..... and two up days...

... on a 3 day cycle in a down trend... there is one up day .... and two down days....

.... this is a very simple concept....?????

 

Where does Taylor ever say that??

 

THIS HAS NOT BEEN ANSWERED

 

7. There are many who have modified the core method to adopt their own style of trading, Dogpile, Frank, Linda Rashcke, G. Angell, that is fine, however they don't insist that everybody else is wrong or have not read the book or are not traders etc

 

Anyway from the way this is going, it is doubtful anybody would want to continue posting here to discuss and gain clarity on the method which to me is a comprehensive way of trading to catch the main trend of the day as per the rules and ignore the cross currents that occur whole day long.

 

There are a number of contributors here who have made selfless attempts to explain and elaborate on the method and are not so called "Gurus" otherwise Eiger would be a VSA guru and Dbphoenix would be a Wyckoff guru and Brownsfan would be Candlestick charting Guru:)))

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... this sounds like a great idea....

.... all personal posters stay here....

.... all traders... who want to post about trading.... join richbois' exclusive forum....

 

For those of you that are tired like me of this pissing contest and want to discuss the Taylor Trading Technique, you are more than welcome to join me on this forum. Day Trading Forum - Taylor Trading Technique

Yes I am the moderator and all of you know I do have a business. One thing I don’t do is put pressure on people to take or not to take my services. There are contributors on my forum that are not customers and we have nice exchanges.

It would be great if we could all get along here but it looks like it is not going to happen. This is probably my last post here as I hate wasting time reading posts that are just :crap: .

This was a great forum and I found some great explanations by Dogpile, Frank, Why?, and many more. Frank has brought comparisons between Taylor and Market profile and now brings statistics on the time of day when highs or lows are made. Blowfish wants to discuss price action, etc. All these discussions are helpful and could be useful. However a lot of the last exchanges have been useless.

PS. As I was writing this post, I just read ThalesTraders post and that is what I consider constructive.

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.... notice ...

... anyone who posted with a personal post directed at me .... got a reply from me ..... and thereby wasted more space on this forum.....

.... because personal posters would rather waste everyone's time... than contact someone in a private message.....

... anyone else who has the new idea of wasting more time on this forum by attacking me in some way ..... please reconsider your plan ... and just send me a private message.....

.... MONAD has given up his personal posts.... and so can you.....

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.... notice ...

... anyone who posted with a personal post directed at me .... got a reply from me ..... and thereby wasted more space on this forum.....

.... because personal posters would rather waste everyone's time... than contact someone in a private message.....

... anyone else who has the new idea of wasting more time on this forum by attacking me in some way ..... please reconsider your plan ... and just send me a private message.....

.... MONAD has given up his personal posts.... and so can you.....

 

As can you. You have stopped contributing anything of value a while ago and has chased everyone else away who was. As far as I can see, this thread has run its course and can just as well be closed, or you removed from it to get it back on track.

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... nice post...

... nice contribution....

....another attack...

.... your methods are very interesting.... why don't you elaborate further... ?

... better yet... if you don't want to describe your methods on the forum ... why don't you contact me by private message.... instead of posting publicly...

.... i am sure no one is interested in any more posts of a personal nature...

 

.... you are turning this thread into your own private trash bin....

 

... i find it interesting that when i was the lone poster here... with Frank posting once in a while out of pity.... no one would post....

... and now that child's play has begun ... all these people are posting.... but with nothing concerning TTT .....

 

.... how bout keep up the posts concerning TTT ... and stop posting on a personal basis ? ... if anyone wants to contact me privately that is fine... but don't post here anymore publicly unless you are posting about trading..... not people....

 

As can you. You have stopped contributing anything of value a while ago and has chased everyone else away who was. As far as I can see, this thread has run its course and can just as well be closed, or you removed from it to get it back on track.
Edited by elovemer

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.... i am sure no one is interested in any more posts of a personal nature...

Yes, so follow your own advice and just... stop. But since you just have to have the last word, I doubt you will until you are the only one left posting here.

 

.... you are turning this thread into your own private trash bin....

LOL. Too late for that. You have done this already.

 

how bout keep up the posts concerning TTT ... and stop posting on a personal basis ? ... if anyone wants to contact me privately that is fine... but don't post here anymore publicly unless you are posting about trading..... not people....

 

How about you start?

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.... nice contribution....

... do you do that only on T days.... or just in the first hour ?

 

... i don't get it.... could you explain your method a bit more ?

 

Yes, so follow your own advice and just... stop. But since you just have to have the last word, I doubt you will until you are the only one left posting here.

LOL. Too late for that. You have done this already.

How about you start?

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Hi again, Elovemer.

 

Like others I am just a lurker, but it is as it is, some people are more interested in some technique,

some people focus on other techniques, so if I would post my technique of

choice here, it would not been related to Taylor. But I like to learn Taylor's technique.

 

But why I post here?

 

Initially I saw an escalation coming. But my message was peace.

 

OK, but there is another point.

 

You always ask for our methods (Taylor methods).

So, I have to admit, that I have no Taylor method yet.

 

But what I can't understand is, why you don't say,

that you post your interpretation of Taylor,

and I guess, others their interpretation.

 

And finally the often unknown reader (like me) takes the good thoughts and forgets about

the bad thoughts. (And what is good or bad might be depending from the view of the reader.)

 

I have no problem to say that I am still not consistently profitable.

 

If you are consistently profitable, why you just don't say, I post my variation of Taylors

method (i.e. not TRUE Taylor).

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

 

P.S.: Once more PEACE. And please don't ask me to contact you via PM.

Because, what I can't write here for all eyes visible, I will not write secretly within a PM.

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....stop trying to contact me personally .....

.... this is not my forum .... Dogpile started this forum.....

.... i am just trying to encourage people to not post in the way you have just done.... personally....

 

....you have not contributed anything to this forum .... with yet another personal post.... and nothing about trading....

 

....if you want to post some personal message.... put it to someone else's attention... not mine.... i am not interested in personal messages....

..... this is Dogpile's forum .... write a personal note to him why don't you....

... post something about trading for pete's sake....

--------------------------------------

 

....thursday was low made first at 10.05 am

.... and was a flag for the flag pole which was put in on thursday's close....

 

....whether playing the expected pivot made first ... or a reaction play on the opposite pivot made first .....

.... i think the biggest obstacle to most traders about using TTT is that it is a swing system.... and therefore requires large stops.....

.... the second biggest obstacle might be timing.... which is also related to stops....

 

... i would like to see some people posting their real-time entries with swing stops ..... again this is NOT my forum.....

... i went long thursday on the low made first .... and was stopped out quickly as i was not using a swing-sized stop but rather an intra-day sized stop....

 

.... on the run up to the big W pattern on the daily chart..... i found TTT system to be very "predictable" ....

.... but trading it during the W pattern on the daily chart which started with the high on 5/7 has been much more difficult for me.....

 

... on ES ... wednesday was bounce on 200sma on daily.... if there is to be more consolidation on 200sma ... then i am looking for the three day method to be less reliable...

.... during consolidation periods... the DAILY method may be better....although Taylor does not recommend switching between the two methods.....

--------------------------

 

...here is a note about stops as per Taylor.....

 

... when a trader has bought on their BUY DAY ... the first day ....

... and when the gain from buy day is lost ... at the open of the 2nd day or "sell day" ....

... Taylor says to close out the long entry ..... on any rally AFTER this decline occurs..... using the buy day low as the selling objective....

 

... he also says that ... in case the buy day gain is lost the same session... with a flat close.....the trader should close the trade before the close ... at or slightly above the low of the day .... when using the DAILY METHOD....

.... he says that a trader using the 3 day method... may wait out the loss for an opportunity to sell on the 3rd day ... 2 days later....

... in reference to the DAILY trader... Taylor says .... the trader should not take a loss which is greater than his greatest daily gain.....

 

... furthermore Taylor says not getting the lowest low as your buy point on buy day is not so important unless prices closes "flat"-- at the low of the day

 

.... in summary... for the DAILY trader... he says to get out as soon as the trader sees that he is wrong....

.... for the 3 DAY trader.... he says it is up to the trader whether or not to wait for the 3rd day ..... and to weather the buy day decline which exceeds the trader's actual entry point....

 

.... so for the daily trader..... the stop might be set according to their book....

.... in other words..... a trader consistently using the method... will know on average.... by how much a decline exceeds their buy point due to any lack of skill in timing an entry.... and any decline beyond this average would be their stop point....

.... would love to see what other traders are using as their system for setting stops using TTT ... both daily and three day method....

 

-------------------------

... i will end this post here as it is a bit long....

 

... except to add that the other cases where Taylor would have the trader go long such as...

... on a buying day low violation,

... a higher buying day low held all day,

....or a reaction long on a low made first on short sale day ...

 

.... Taylor says that the trader needs to rely more heavily on their tape reading skills or on the expected size of the decline according to their book (violation)....to set their uncle point (stop)....

 

....TTT is a swing system.... except for setting buy day stop-out point using the daily method...

 

------------------------------------

.... a note to ***** .... this is not my forum ... so what i would love to see here ... is just as important/unimportant as what any other poster would love to see here..... this is not my forum ....

.....what ***** thinks his gurus would like to be posted here.... is of no concern to me..... i just post what i am concerned with as far as TTT .... and i don't really care what others post as long as it is not of a personal nature....and as long as it does not involve me.... :0)

 

 

Hi again, Elovemer.

 

Like others I am just a lurker, but it is as it is, some people are more interested in some technique,

some people focus on other techniques,

so if I would post my technique of

choice here, it would not been related to Taylor. But I like to learn Taylor's technique.

 

But why I post here?

 

Initially I saw an escalation coming. But my message was peace.

 

OK, but there is another point.

 

You always ask for our methods (Taylor methods).

So, I have to admit, that I have no Taylor method yet.

 

But what I can't understand is, why you don't say,

that you post your interpretation of Taylor,

and I guess, others their interpretation.

 

And finally the often unknown reader (like me) takes the good thoughts and forgets about

the bad thoughts. (And what is good or bad might be depending from the view of the reader.)

 

I have no problem to say that I am still not consistently profitable.

 

If you are consistently profitable, why you just don't say, I post my variation of Taylors

method (i.e. not TRUE Taylor).

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

 

P.S.: Once more PEACE. And please don't ask me to contact you via PM.

Because, what I can't write here for all eyes visible, I will not write secretly within a PM.

Edited by elovemer

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So,i go away and leave you guys and what happens? arguments,deserters then silence :confused::) !!!

Ok this is last weeks chart.Horizontal lines are multiples of the rule of 10 (r-10) which i use as support/resistance.(the market plays along with the idea occasionally) Also looking at 935 support 961 resistance (elliott wave)

5aa70ee6633a3_8-12june.thumb.gif.c59ff24aa54e7ad10cdc7e97a69b2866.gif

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I know it's been mentioned that hindsite is a wonderfull thing and i did suggest we post trades live but nobody took the bait,but anyway,when you're learning a new technique,hindsite is where you begin.You can spend years looking for an edge/holy grail and,apparently,a lot of them disappear over time and you have to find a new one.That prospect never appealed to me,though of course i did explore all kinds of things,and i'm always open minded...But when you get right down to it there are very few things a market can do,namely up down or sideways;support becomes resistance (in a downtrend) resistance becomes support (in an uptrend).Problem is which S/R levels do you consider? I used to use fibs and pivots but found then too fleeting,but they might work for you.Since the market is perfectly geometrical (you need to square price and time to see it though) it is probably perfectly mathmatical also,which is why i use R-10. (i use words like probably because it's easier than gaining a phd in whatever,, and,besides,those guys are only good for designing black boxes that end up causing global financial meltdowns and writing papers about TA and how it doesn't work:cool: )

You might not know where a market is going but you know where it has been.

Monday for me is a short sell day and an ideal short day is high made first. Last weeks high- 956, Elliott wave resistance is 961 so that is my sell zone.If the market opens down from friday close (946) Elliott wave support is 935 and if you look at my chart in the last post,we touched 936 quite a few times so that is my buy zone for a reaction play.

On my swing trade i am short (average price 935,stop 970 yeah i know,but i always try to make money on intraday trades and assume i will lose the swings...or is it the other way round :confused::)) as i figure the smart money is distributing this sideways market for the last few days and volume on this rally is thin.My worry is that they may be close to disposing of their inventory and start buying again without us seeing any significant drop.Of course,i'm hoping Iran elections result will send the market down so let's see what games they play in the futures on Sunday.(yeah who cares about nuclear war so long as my short trade plays out:) March low 666 to 956 so far-a mother of a R-10 reversal trade if it happens....

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Am i the only one left:confused: I had today as a short sell and as you know from my pevious post i was short,expecting some unwinding from the recent 956 top which finally happened today.(though,as usual it was best to be already short from last week as after the initial drop it was mostly sideways). Sticking with my R-10 multiples (see prev chart) short targets from 956 high/946 fri close,for today were 926 (hit) 916 (no doubt coming to a chart near you soon and 912 (elliott wave support) is still in play).There was also an outstanding gap below at 919.1-923.2 from may 27 which we all but closed today but the rally from there was weak and i would not consider a small reaction long play until around 912 at the moment.(cautious at that).

tues is buy day and futures tonight are barely in the red so expect a mixed open as probably traders consider how deep this pullback might be.I dont see us testing march lows at 666 just yet- a pullback then a shot at 961 and levels up to 1000 would suck in retail weak hands.That would be the ideal scenario for another panic plunge that would be needed to end this bear,But i.m sure there's many twists and turns yet.:)

If nobody else is gonna join me here i might just stick to TA thread....

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Am i the only one left:confused: I had today as a short sell and as you know from my pevious post i was short,expecting some unwinding from the recent 956 top which finally happened today.(though,as usual it was best to be already short from last week as after the initial drop it was mostly sideways). Sticking with my R-10 multiples (see prev chart) short targets from 956 high/946 fri close,for today were 926 (hit) 916 (no doubt coming to a chart near you soon and 912 (elliott wave support) is still in play).There was also an outstanding gap below at 919.1-923.2 from may 27 which we all but closed today but the rally from there was weak and i would not consider a small reaction long play until around 912 at the moment.(cautious at that).

tues is buy day and futures tonight are barely in the red so expect a mixed open as probably traders consider how deep this pullback might be.I dont see us testing march lows at 666 just yet- a pullback then a shot at 961 and levels up to 1000 would suck in retail weak hands.That would be the ideal scenario for another panic plunge that would be needed to end this bear,But i.m sure there's many twists and turns yet.:)

If nobody else is gonna join me here i might just stick to TA thread....

 

I like your R-10 theory and today we went to 906.

 

I use something a bit different which is based on Gann's square. Based on the high of 957.50 I get R/S every 7.75 points at the moment. that would be every 22.5 degrees. If I use 30 degrees I get 10.25 points which is close to yours.

 

As far as TTT is concern we are on a different cycle. I had today a Sell day. We had a very small rally and closed below the Buy day low. That is not good for the bulls but we do have good odds of making it back to atleast the Buy day low by the close tomorrow.

 

will just have to wait and see.

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Am i the only one left ... 912 (elliott wave support) is still in play).There was also an outstanding gap below at 919.1-923.2 from may 27 which we all but closed today but the rally from there was weak and i would not consider a small reaction long play until around 912 at the moment.(cautious at that).

 

I am using the same cycle as richbois, and therefore my cycle is different from yours. I don't use squares and Ganns and so forth, but I agree with you EW levels. I have 912 as an important support level, and the next one I have of real importance 850 (848 to be exact).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Agree it's looking weak and your buy day low is not much of a target- it could go to mid 20's lows of last week and at most 935 resistance but i doubt it's got any chance. I don't want to be a buyer with this breakout short from the recent high sideways range and i believe that the smart money is selling.If so,(and it will be interesting to see weds what happens), then support levels will mean nothing as you will get capitulation and more momentum.If weds ends near a high i would be looking to short early thurs as that would be my next sort day in the cycle.

I don't believe this will be more than a pullback and 1000 is more likely to get hit before march low but these bear market moves always go further than you expect-the recent rally a case in point.

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I am using the same cycle as richbois, and therefore my cycle is different from yours. I don't use squares and Ganns and so forth, but I agree with you EW levels. I have 912 as an important support level, and the next one I have of real importance 850 (848 to be exact).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I just have a strong feeling that too many traders are counting on 912 to hold i can see it collapsing.If i am right about the smart money selling then 50-100 point targets are what they seem to go for.From 956 our elliott target 848 seems possible but even 906, 50 points and continuing my r-10 play puts us under 912 hitting the stops,so i guess it could reverse from there as well... thanks you 2 guys for keeping the thread alive

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