Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dogpile

ES Trading for 10/8 thru 10/12 2007

Recommended Posts

This thread is for discussing futures trading for this week.

 

Friday began a new 'up auction' after a decent multi-day downswing. Thus, we enter the new week with the expectation that there is 'residual momentum' leftover from Fridays trend day up. We did get a late afternoon corrective move down so I am expecting bulls to retake control and the odds would expect us to make a higher high versus Fridays high at some point on Monday. A higher high is expected but should not be expected to have large continuation in the morning session. The afternoon session after a trend day tends to be the more likely time of day for a continuation in the direction of the trend day. The morning session often has a false breakout after a trend day. Many times, a new 'coil' will develop through lunch-time where a balance develops --- and then an upside breakout could then occur.

 

PVP for Friday was 1570.25 but volume was not significant at this level -- 48,537 contracts is not indicative of an important level. I will watch closely to see how VWAP builds on Monday relative to this level. Friday was day 1 of a new 'up-auction' so I would look for buys either on a good downswing Monday morning --- or wait for the expected afternoon coil-break should a balancing develop in the morning.

 

Attached is the volume distribution for Friday, showing 'Initiative Buying' (Buying resulting in range extenstion above last value area) -- with a 'single print' at 1563.75.

5aa70e0d2588b_Oct5FinalVolumeDistribution.png.104e49a7a2d8c478973e8b0ad8e36ddd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12pm update of my thinking -- would be curious to hear others.

 

Fridays high is starting to look like an 'excess high'...

 

so there are 2 options here:

1) a new down auction began and just ran down -10 pts off 70.25 Friday PVP -- could run further but also could be long in the tooth.

or,

2) this morning was just a shakeout move down to get the weak longs out and the up auction is ongoing and could re-ignite in the afternoon session.

 

#1 seems more likely but that is just a guess. location close to the 58.00 high-volume area along with potential upside residual momentum left-over from friday argues for a long entry somewhere not too far above 58.00 and play for a re-test of Friday high... if we do re-test and make lower high --- that would then be bearish. until then though, still considering the long-side if a short-term entry presents itself and 1558.00 support is not too far beneath the entry.

 

attached is simplified PVP summary

5aa70e0d4f305_Oct8PVPSummary.png.87879874b526ff4d0da6108596f46ef8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

grrr, my software is all messed up for some reason but pretty much agree with you. Seems like a great spot where the market has to make a decission one way or the other.

I actually spent the weekend reading everything I could find on the market delta/footprint software. Seems like right here is when that information would be perfect. I would expect aggression to come in when we move from this level, if you could see what side is getting hit market order wise, lifting or sinking bids, when that happens then just jump on that side and go with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12pm update of my thinking -- would be curious to hear others.

 

Fridays high is starting to look like an 'excess high'...

 

so there are 2 options here:

1) a new down auction began and just ran down -10 pts off 70.25 Friday PVP -- could run further but also could be long in the tooth.

or,

2) this morning was just a shakeout move down to get the weak longs out and the up auction is ongoing and could re-ignite in the afternoon session.

 

#1 seems more likely but that is just a guess. location close to the 58.00 high-volume area along with potential upside residual momentum left-over from friday argues for a long entry somewhere not too far above 58.00 and play for a re-test of Friday high... if we do re-test and make lower high --- that would then be bearish. until then though, still considering the long-side if a short-term entry presents itself and 1558.00 support is not too far beneath the entry.

 

attached is simplified PVP summary

 

Based on the relationship of Friday's close and today's open and similar occurances during the past 10 years, that 1558.00 area has 75% chance of holding

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<Based on the relationship of Friday's close and today's open and similar occurances during the past 10 years, that 1558.00 area has 75% chance of holding>>

 

don't tease me like that... please elaborate.

 

any advice on where to put a stop? I got long at 60.75 and took some off at 62.25 just so I could keep a wide stop on the balance --- how would leave a stop relative to 58.00 at this point. you are saying it shouldn't touch 58.00? thus 57.75 for the balance of my long?

 

thx in advance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For tomorrow, my bias is bearish. Taylor trading technique shows that the 2-period closing ROC is high and due to flip down, particularly for Nasdaq. Moreover, we built lower value today (other than Nasdaq) -- showing no residual upside momentum from Fridays big up day -- somewhat surprising. Friday is looking like an 'excess high' was made and we may have begun a good downward auction here?

 

ES & RUS both have 3 bar 'cap' formations (an Art Collins 3-bar daily pattern with highest high and highest close occuring in the middle day).

 

All that said, we traded down and formed a fat profile low in the 2-day range -- indicating lack of seller conviction. Volume was extremely light. Nevertheless, I was a bit surprised that bulls never really showed up when they really could have taken control from the bears today. The lack of buying pressure today combined with a gap down off an excess high is all a big red flag in my book. I did not go home short though because of the PVP/high-volume area just below us in the 1558.00 area.

 

Ant, what you thinking for tomorrow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Dogpile,

 

Today's trading occurred on very light volume because of the holiday. I wouldn't put much weight on today's action, but it held above Friday's low and the previous balance area high at 1561. So I would say that the uptrend is still intact and would be looking for an opportunity to get long tomorrow. I agree with your "lack of seller conviction" assessment. I will be monitoring prices between Friday's buying tail and today's low for a possible long entry, if it trades there. If we trade above today's POC, I will be looking to get long on a pullback above today's value area, or possibly near today's POC around 1562. Again, the balance area high from 10/1 to 10/4 around 1561 seems to be providing good support. My short-term long bias would change if we trade below today's low with conviction. We'll see what happens in the overnight session.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Analysis of European Session Thus Far... This is a 5-min DAX chart -- which is another way of thinking about what happened overnight for the S&Ps.

 

We will gap up -- notice location is not good to be long at this point.

5aa70e0dd0df5_Oct9DAX0915amTues.thumb.png.23675063490092e3dbad6e73400fe8af.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well, we are building higher value thus far in front of the FOMC minutes due out at 2pm EST. This is a tough spot as the higher value that we are building is bullish but we are pinned just beneath 1570 higher volume area and rejected just under that level this morning. If we break up, consistent with the theme for the day (higher value) -- it might be choppy sledding.

 

If we break lower, then there is some running rom down to 1558.00. This would be consistent with my bearish bias coming into the day.

 

We built a good PVP at 1567.00 with VWAP and price there too. This was a good balancing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today is a rotational day with higher value, as Dogpile noted, I plan to get long if the ES trades below today's developing value area for a play back to value. If the ES trades below 1558, I would not go long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here is what I think I missed today...

 

 

On Sep 19th, we gapped up after a big move up and then had ~107k contracts trade at 1546.00 -- and this PVP proved to be a major pivot for the 7 successive trading days.

 

This time, the 1570 pvp was actually not a really large PVP in terms of contracts traded there. there were 48,357 traded there on Friday. We then shook out longs with a down day before building more volume high up in the range.

 

As it turns out, getting long would have been tricky today anyway. But this was not really such major resistance to fear.

 

When there is any doubt, best to just go with the daily bias --- ie, when there is no major morning buying/selling tail indicating a reversal --- just trade in the direction of the value migration. If VWAP > VWAP[1], stay long biased. If VWAP < VWAP[1], consider the short side or look for a 'b' type of profile and a higher low to get long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
here is what I think I missed today...

 

On Sep 19th, we gapped up after a big move up and then had ~107k contracts trade at 1546.00 -- and this PVP proved to be a major pivot for the 7 successive trading days.

 

This time, the 1570 pvp was actually not a really large PVP in terms of contracts traded there. there were 48,357 traded there on Friday. We then shook out longs with a down day before building more volume high up in the range.

 

The high volume area around 1570 did provide resistance the first time it was visited this morning. I wasn't aware of that area until you mentioned it in your post above. Why did you think that that level would provide strong resistance given the other conditions you mentioned (b shape, higher value, etc)?

 

ES-HV.GIF.4a6f94ef1ddcd5935ea1af57417a0f8d.GIF

 

As it turns out, getting long would have been tricky today anyway. But this was not really such major resistance to fear.

 

There were two long trades today that set up at the VAH and the POC with bullish divergences. But I agree, that the second trade was difficult to take.

 

When there is any doubt, best to just go with the daily bias --- ie, when there is no major morning buying/selling tail indicating a reversal --- just trade in the direction of the value migration. If VWAP > VWAP[1], stay long biased. If VWAP < VWAP[1], consider the short side or look for a 'b' type of profile and a higher low to get long.

 

I think that the breakout day on 10/5, followed by a 'b' shaped profile yesterday, and the higher value today helped me maintain a long bias. I wouldn't rely solely on value migration for a bias. Not sure if you're saying that you would.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<Why did you think that that level would provide strong resistance given the other conditions you mentioned (b shape, higher value, etc)?>>

 

I was thinking about that Sep 19 PVP and wrongly equating it to the 10/5 PVP.

 

The 'b' that formed low in the 2-day range and 'lack of seller conviction' led me to be cautious about shorting. But the failure to re-test on Monday confused me a bit. I was a day off as I was thinking re-test the high yesterday and when it didn't, that Friday afternoon high looked like an excess high to me (bull trap). But you are right, that played out on Monday and the 'b' Monday profile and higher value being built was not something to fight. I haven't been trading futures much lately -- the real action has been in the sector rotation setting up interesting opportunities in individual stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<Do you scan for stocks or are you working off of some "bigger picture" theme?>>

 

Scan. I basically have adopted the 15-min First Cross Buy to stocks -- so looking for a few days of downswing and then some upward range expansion off opening price to trigger. This works well when the market is rotating.

 

Here are a few examples:

5aa70e0de21a3_Oct9XTO.thumb.png.89a8c4abfa9d7970c1c0b32555aa05a7.png

5aa70e0de83db_Oct5CSCO15-minFCBuywithBullFlag.thumb.png.0399e3579c6626e9654ce331c5f546fa.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Summary of recent PVPs -- where support can be expected to come in...

 

note by the way that European markets have not confirmed the move up in the S&P's. we are due for a down day and todays gap down could spark a down auction. That said, there is support at the various recent PVP high-volume zones so this might be tricky.

5aa70e0e1f395_Oct9FinalPVPSummary.png.bf4ebb10ffc7f95dfc17a0814c2d24c4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

everyone take note of the large PVP building at 1569.75 today to go along with Fridays 1570.25 PVP...

 

In the recent past, I have seen some big-time selling tails develop after a lot of churning builds at a single price like this action at 1570.00....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • How's about other crypto exchanges? Are all they banned in your country or only Binance?
    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.