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Soultrader

Prime Minister Abe Resigns (Japan)

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Article is located here: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/09/12/abe.resign/index.html

 

One of the problems with the stagnation of the Japanese markets is due to constant policital uncertainty. Prime minister Abe's resignation will add further pressure on the markets.

 

Upon his announcement the Nikkei made a monster rally. :shrug: Lifting on enormous momentum. This was the first over reaction. The second wave of reaction pounded the Nikkei to new lows where it stabilized for the rest of the day. I found this quite interesting.

 

It will be interesting to see what sort of effect it will have on the US markets. There is a possibility that foreign money will be withdrawn from the Japanese markets, hence could add fuel to other markets including the US.

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Yes there is going to be uncertainty at a time that is not good for the markets globally.

 

Modern Japanese polititians face some impossible challenges.

One of them is how to go down in the history books as something other than a failure. After WW2 Japan adopted a "25 year plan" for industrialization.

It was the greatest economic success of the last century. In cars and in electronics Japan showed the rest of the world how to do it better.

 

It was a unique plan, a partnership between government and industry to work together with a business plan. Every other country staggered along with no plan and got what it deserved, just as Japan got what it deserved.

 

Japanese polititians and industry leaders stand in the shadows of visionary giants, in comparison they must see themselves as lacking.

 

But it could be worse, try being a polititian in Russia. Do you see something like a 25 year plan in action there, or something more like a road to nowhere?

 

For better or worse, Japan also showed the rest of the world how to follow its example. China and India now work towards industrialization but in bringing themselves out of the third world, they risk bringing the first world downwards for the first time in history.

 

This generation of Americans is the first to have a lower standard of living than their parents. Japan and the rest of the developed world face that future too.

 

If you go back further in history, the rise of the Greek then Roman cultures was followed by a collapse into the Dark Ages and then came the renaissance from which the modern world regrew.

 

Has the first world reached its peak and from here on, is there a slide until some culture comes up with an answer, a new 25 year plan?

I see no great vision on the horizon.

 

Where are the likes of the great American leaders now?

Why does the world face decay for lack of a vision?

Why have we had 30 years of braindead clueless polititians?

Are we about to get what we deserve, the reward for being a TV junkie couch potato, brain dead and going nowhere, a B grade movie for a future?

 

Or maybe I should have just said yes, the markets seem to be waiting to see which way to jump next. We live in interesting times.

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Very interesting thoughts PYenner. I recently also had a similar conversation with a trading buddy about how Japan may be in the direction of being eliminated as a first world country. I can not vision this country blooming in the future.

 

Our markets are below what was the high over a decade ago. We are smack in a middle of a market crisis. Subprime issues is just a small crack in an already broken down market.

 

However, I like to see things positively. Even in the worst and chaotic times for the market there is always an opportunity for traders somewhere.

 

Its interesting to see how the US is flipping out when suddently China's military starts to get big or how Russia tested the world’s most powerful non-nuclear air-delivered bomb. Or blaming Iran for its lack of progress in Iraq. (or maybe its just Bush) Definitely fear amongst the leading nations of our time. And whats funny is how the media tries to have people forget about all the market chaos, Iraq, political issues, etc... by hyping out how fat Britney Spears was on her comeback. That article was actually the most popular on CNN when it first came out. Unbelievable.

 

I also find it amusing how Prime Minsiter Abe checked himself into a hospital and will remain their for the next few days due to a physical problem. So much BS and just running away from his problems as a failed prime minister. It just shows how weak and irresponsible our Japanese leader really was.

 

We indeed live in some interesting times.

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Abe didn't last too long in the job didn't he, only less then a year after Koizumi? I'm not sure if he came to APEC here in Australia.

 

What we need in many countries is a group of leaders with real vision. The best we could do here in Australia was the "Work choices" legislation which effectively sent our work place relations system back to the late 1700's!

 

I don't think we will really see any dramatic shift in political strategy and policy untill people in my generation become old enough to get into seats of power. The old Baby Boomers are still in power and they don't want to give up. These people are still ruling states based upon the old realist ideals of the all powerfull state in a very cold war mind set...its us versus the rest!

 

P

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Was Abe expected to last long? I don't know much about Japan's politics, but when he came to power, I was concern that he favored military buildup. It is interesting, at that time, my wife (Japanese) told me not to worry about Abe, because he is just temporary there, to fill the gap until election and will not last long. She is not too interested in politics, so that information must have been "known fact".

 

Re world vision, there is one and it is not pretty... listen to this presentation and some of the recent changes in labor law, security, etc will be seen in the different light...

Naomi Klein - The Shock Doctrine 6 part presentation..

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What we need in many countries is a group of leaders with real vision. The best we could do here in Australia was the "Work choices" legislation which effectively sent our work place relations system back to the late 1700's!

 

I don't think we will really see any dramatic shift in political strategy and policy untill people in my generation become old enough to get into seats of power. The old Baby Boomers are still in power and they don't want to give up. These people are still ruling states based upon the old realist ideals of the all powerfull state in a very cold war mind set...its us versus the rest!

 

P

Hi Nick

Yeah this Kiwi thought many times about flying the Tasman.

Then I read in the paper that the Aus government is talking about going down the same destructive road NZ just went down. Can't win. May still quit this country yet.

 

I am a baby boomer, I used to think my generation would make a difference but what we got was 30 years of vultures in commerce and twisted individuals in politics. They were not like us, they were damaged goods, wierdos mostly. Few of them were what I would call healthy people.

 

Another good thing about boomers getting to retirement age is that there should be a labour shortage and that should see wages and labour laws improving. But how you tax payers will fund our hospitals, rest homes and pensions hehe, thats going to be interesting. Maybe you should export your boomers to NZ...

 

I hope you do get some healthy people into power, coz I might come join you if that happens.

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I recently also had a similar conversation with a trading buddy about how Japan may be in the direction of being eliminated as a first world country. I can not vision this country blooming in the future.

 

However, I like to see things positively. Even in the worst and chaotic times for the market there is always an opportunity for traders somewhere.

 

Yes there should be hope for traders.

 

We get nothing in our news about Asia.

I see the future of Japan and US as important, where they go the rest will follow.

 

Britain survived the collapse of its industry by turning to commerce and insurance but that does not seem like much of a solution for the rest of the first world. But once you take away manufacturing, thats about what you are left with.

 

It would be very bad for all of us if Japan slips out of first world any faster than the rest of us.

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Hi Nick

Yeah this Kiwi thought many times about flying the Tasman.

Then I read in the paper that the Aus government is talking about going down the same destructive road NZ just went down. Can't win. May still quit this country yet.

 

I am a baby boomer, I used to think my generation would make a difference but what we got was 30 years of vultures in commerce and twisted individuals in politics. They were not like us, they were damaged goods, wierdos mostly. Few of them were what I would call healthy people.

 

Another good thing about boomers getting to retirement age is that there should be a labour shortage and that should see wages and labour laws improving. But how you tax payers will fund our hospitals, rest homes and pensions hehe, thats going to be interesting. Maybe you should export your boomers to NZ...

 

I hope you do get some healthy people into power, coz I might come join you if that happens.

 

In Australia about 14 years ago superannuation became compulsory as the Labor government at the time realised that the Baby Boomer generation will cause a huge strain on the tax funded pension system. Currently you must contribute 9% of your gross salary into superannuation every year. Despite 14 years of these contributions people still find themselves in a positon where they are still unable to be self funded retirees. I work in the financial planning industry so I've seen a lot of this. As the grey dollar becomes more and more important the strain on the Gen X and Y'ers will grow. Soon the i-pod generation will feel it as well when the Gen X'ers start to reach 55 years of age.

 

It will be interesting to see now what happens with the elections this year. John Howard still hasn't called them yet but he's just announced that should he be re-elected he will retire within a couple of years leaving the way open for our Treasurer, Peter Costello, to become our new PM. I hate both the major parties so I'm gonna donkey vote an independent!

 

The Asia/Pacific region is becoming the new major player in world politics and economics driven forward by Japan, China, South Korea, and Australia. Will be an interesting time in the next 20 years untill my generation is firmly entrenched in power ;)

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