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jperl

Trading with Market Statistics VI. Scaling In and Risk Tolerance

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Good point Nick...yes that volume is included in the price...if it doesn't keep track of all of the volume at every price it wouldn't be accurate...good point.

 

We don't check to see if its the PVP until after we have stored the current volume at this tick at the appropriate array.

 

It's as accurate as you can get...no approximations here....it is adding up tick volume at every price...so as long as the tick volume is accurate the PVP is accurate.

 

My code was checking every single volume at every price in the array...after every tick...no need to do that...you simply check the current tick volume at the current price against the current pvp, if it is greater its the new pvp, if not then keep the old pvp...simple but effective.

 

Hope this helps you understand what the code is doing.

 

Good job Blowfish,

 

dbntina ;)

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understand now... very nice improvement.

Here is another suggestion, if you have not implemented yet... store on every tick... check for new PVP only if the price changed... this is 60% savings and no loss of accuracy. (my initial concern converted into improvement )

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Nick,

 

We will see how it works next week.

 

Also, tried to run the VWAP and SD bands on a tick by tick basis and it won't run...way too memory intensive. There is no way around that I am pretty sure. To get tick by tick accuracy you have to go through every tick every time there is a new tick to check the difference between the new vwap and the price at every tick and then perform all of the calcs...just not going to work. Code is easy but my computer with 4 gigs of ram just won't run it...

 

later,

 

dbntina

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understand now... very nice improvement.

Here is another suggestion, if you have not implemented yet... store on every tick... check for new PVP only if the price changed... this is 60% savings and no loss of accuracy. (my initial concern converted into improvement )

 

Hi nick, this would not be needed. There is a single comparison on each loop...is the volume at this level greater than pvp.

 

Store this ticks volume

Is the stored volume > than the current PvP

No Finish

 

I think I am safe in saying the code is optimal. You'll see when Dbntina publishes.

 

Cheers,

Blowish (another Nick)

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If you have followed the details for scaling in, you should be able to answer the following questions. Take a shot at them and post your answers here

 

1)Assume your account is 50K and that you have a risk tolerance on any trade sequence of 2% of your account including commissions. A trade sequence is a group of related trades involving scale-ins and scale-outs and/or reversals (which we haven't discussed yet).

Let's say you trade the Emini Russell 2000 index futures where 1 tick is worth $10 (0.1 points) and your roundtrip commission/contract is $5.00. You enter a 1 contract trade long at the 2nd SD, but the market moves against you back down to the 1st SD where you scale-in another contract long. The market is relentless and it continues to move down to the VWAP where again you scale-in an additional 2 contracts long. Again the market continues it relentless move down. You finally hit your risk tolerance at the 1st SD below the VWAP, so you exit your entire trade and are flat.

 

Question: What is the value of the SD in ticks?

 

2)When you scale-in at the VWAP in the above scenario, the market finally rotates and starts moving back up. You exit the entire trade at break even +1 tick.

 

Question: Where is your break even point including commission measured in ticks above the VWAP?

How much money did you make on the trade?

 

If you were able to answere these questions without too much difficulty, then you are ready to become a full time trader with all the rights and privileges granted thereto. You are also ready for [thread=2232]part VII[/thread]

 

I wil try on this , plz correct me if i am wrong

Ans 1

 

Risk tolerance =2%*50000=1000

let SD be x ticks

1st entry long at 2nd SD , market moves down to 1st SD

so loss = 1contract * x=xticks

2nd entry scale in 1 contract at 1Sd, market moves down to VWAP

so loss =2contract* x =2x ticks, total = xticks above + 2x =3x ticks

3rd entry scale in 2 contracts at VWAP, market moves down to 1sd below VWAP

so loss=4contract*xticks=4x ticks , total=3x tciks above + 4x=7x ticks

at this pint risk tolerance hits so trader sells his 4 contracts.

total commisions=4contracts * 5=20$

risk tolerance =7x ticks loss + 20$

1000=7x*10(bcoz i tick is 10$) +20

x=14, so SD is 14ticks

 

Ans 2

Let breakeven be y ticks above VWAP

at vWAP previous loss is 3x ticks

at y ticks above VWAP his profit is 4y ticks

for breakeven

4y*10=3x*10+4*5

substituting x=14

40y=420+20=440

 

40y=420

so y =11 ticks

so breakeven is at 11 ticks above VWAP

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Scaling in .... this is exactly what i did at the roulette table in the casino while on my honeymoon.

 

Playing red and black or odd and even i doubled my bet when i lost.

 

I started with a $1 chip every sequence. If i lost i doubled. If i won i started the next bet with $1.

 

Boring most of the time except when i got up to $512 bets just to get my original dollar back.

 

I played 4 nights this way. I played for about 3 hours and a bit each night. Each night i left with $350 more than what i came with - even after replenishing my wife's purse.

 

They changed the guy rolling the ball quite a bit and they watched me real good but i stuck to my system and did not deviate from the rules i set for myself.

 

When i got back home from my honeymoon i looked up the notes for the system i thought i was playing and realized this was not the system my dad had shown me.

 

That was 20 years ago and i have only visited a casino twice since then. One was a charity casino where they were trying to take your money at odds that were worse than vegas and once with a friend because he wanted to play slots and i had never done that - so i put $20 bucks in one machine. Then i stood and watched him win $300.

 

In retrospect doubling your money when you lose in a casino is a high risk game. One long run will wipe you out. So you need a good grubstake if you take 20+ losses in a row.

 

I do not recommend it - too hard on the heart lol.

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For the cme (e.g. emini ES)

 

One can lease a seat if you are doing 25 round turns a day and save a considerable amount.

 

25 round turns per day = $24.5 at $0.98 per round trip (incl. clear fee $0.78 and globex fee $0.20)

lease cost per day = $58.4 (not sure about this number i think it is cheaper but site is down right now) ($58.4 times 252 days = $14,716)

one time application fee $1750

this option as is works out to $14,716 for lease plus $6174 in comm plus $1750 application fee

=$22,640

 

compared to retail cost at ib $4.8 times 25 round trips a day times 252 days

= $30,240

 

If you do more round trips the difference is even bigger.

 

If you don't do 25 per day or 1500 per quarter you pay retail.

 

You must incorporate to lease a seat or trade under a corporation.

 

http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/fees/rule106r.html

 

You don't hear eTrade flogging this kind of commercial on TV.

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Jerry, MAE of 6.43 today on multiple contracts!!!!!

 

You take my breath away....

 

But i guess if you got 'em use 'em.

 

Actually there are some big traders around who risk $50k per trade. I think they do it on more contracts but tighter stops probably.

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Jerry, MAE of 6.43 today on multiple contracts!!!!!

 

You take my breath away....

 

But i guess if you got 'em use 'em.

 

Actually there are some big traders around who risk $50k per trade. I think they do it on more contracts but tighter stops probably.

 

It really comes down to your risk tolerance. Once you start trading using risk tolerance rather than stops, you don't have a problem scaling-in multiple contracts. On days like yesterday, it was quite profitable.

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This chart beautifully illustrates the behaviour that I was talking about (and trying to ensure I understood) a few posts back. This mornings DAX again.

 

From the session open it just dropped with no base to build any sort of volume for the PvP. Volume increased on the fall and so PvP led the Vwap the whole way down.

 

Hi blowfish,

 

Just an idea - but the DAX futures are open 1 hour before the cash. That is why the volume radically increases - it is getting closer to the open which then opens with a flurry of volume.

 

With kind regards,

MK

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Hey guys I hope someone is still watching this thread. I have been learning about market profile over the past few months and I stumbled upon this thread which has been very interesting for me. Before I continue reading I want to make sure I have the basics down.

 

I do have a question: I trade CL from 9am to noon NY time. Do I use the overnight session for the volume histogram or do I only use the data starting at 9am? This makes a difference in the vwap & PVP so I'm not sure.

 

Thanks

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Hey guys I hope someone is still watching this thread. I have been learning about market profile over the past few months and I stumbled upon this thread which has been very interesting for me. Before I continue reading I want to make sure I have the basics down.

 

I do have a question: I trade CL from 9am to noon NY time. Do I use the overnight session for the volume histogram or do I only use the data starting at 9am? This makes a difference in the vwap & PVP so I'm not sure.

 

Thanks

 

Not familiar with crude oil Cunparis, but I would think that the overnight data would not have much effect on the VWAP value unless overnight volume is large. If it is large, then you need to include it in your data.

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Not familiar with crude oil Cunparis, but I would think that the overnight data would not have much effect on the VWAP value unless overnight volume is large. If it is large, then you need to include it in your data.

 

For ES & YM do you include the overnight volume in your VWAP & histogram?

 

I agree with you that the effect of the volume would be completely overshadowed by the volume at the open. But I see traders using 9am for crude (and 9:30 am for ES) for the beginning of their session and I'm puzzled by that. I guess it makes charts cleaner because the overnight session is a bit disorderly.

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For ES & YM do you include the overnight volume in your VWAP & histogram?

If I'm daytrading today, I don't include the overnight session, although I might include data for about 1 hour before the open, so that I can see where price action is starting at the open. This has little or no effect on todays VWAP

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for forex, it looks much more appealing with no PVP, and on a 15 minute chart

 

 

the only other thing that's on there is a white dashed horizontal line showing what price was at 01:00 EST

 

21082d1274373434-trading-market-statistics-vi-scaling-risk-vwap4.jpg

vwap4.thumb.jpg.bcc996cac02ffff16e1be0d930b6d011.jpg

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Jerry,

 

I know you mention that PVP is used as a stop loss point.

 

Let's assume a long position. Say your risk tolerance would allow you to place your exit point below the PVP.

 

If price closes below the PVP, but hasn't hit your risk tolerance stop AND the PVP point hasn't changed, should you stay in the trade?

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Thanks this helped clear the shapiro effect up. One thing, shouldn't the signal at point 'c' have been the large candle to the left of the one you marked?

 

Thanks

 

I was going to wait until a later thread to discuss this, but since you brought it up here, dbntina, I will talk about it now. The question is, when price action retraces to the 1st SD or the VWAP which is a signal to pull the trigger, how would you know not to do it?

I use a simple technique due to Larry Pesavento which he calls the "Shapiro Effect". The Shapiro Effect states "If a trade is good now, it will be good in 5 minutes".

Don't take this statement literally, but use it interpretaively. I use it in the following way. Let say you are looking for a short entry on a retrace to the 1st SD or VWAP. The first UP BAR that touches the SD is your signal. Don't pull the trigger yet. Apply the Shapiro Effect. Wait for a down bar that confirms the signal. A confirmed signal would be one that drops below the low of the signal bar. Then pull the trigger.

Look at the attachment. This is the same 2 minute chart of NQ for Aug 10 that you posted dbntina.

At point "a" we get a signal to go short at the 1st SD. Apply the Shapiro

Effect. There is no confirmation of the low on the next bar. Don't pull the trigger. It took 7 bars later to confirm that low, which was below the 2nd SD. I usually don't trade there.

At point "b" (the VWAP) we get a signal to go short. Apply the Shapiro Effect. 2 bars later there is a confirmation of the low of the "b" bar. Pull the trigger short.

At point "c", we get a short signal at the 1st SD. Apply the Shapiro Effect. There is no confirmation of the low. Don't pull the trigger.

At point "d" we get a signal to go short. But there is no confirmation of the low. Don't pull the trigger.

 

You can see how this works. Applying the Shapiro Effect will keep you out of most bad trades. The downside of course is you might miss some good trades.

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Jerry,

 

I know you mention that PVP is used as a stop loss point.

 

Let's assume a long position. Say your risk tolerance would allow you to place your exit point below the PVP.

 

If price closes below the PVP, but hasn't hit your risk tolerance stop AND the PVP point hasn't changed, should you stay in the trade?

 

I hope Jerry is still around to comment but could you link where Jerry talks about using the PvP as a stop? I may be completely wrong but I have a suspicion you might have got the wrong idea about that.

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It's in the first sets of videos. It is even in the ones where he introduces standard deviation.

 

 

 

I hope Jerry is still around to comment but could you link where Jerry talks about using the PvP as a stop? I may be completely wrong but I have a suspicion you might have got the wrong idea about that.

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