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Trading with Market Statistics VI. Scaling In and Risk Tolerance
By
jperl, in Market Profile
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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Breaches More Resistance Zones, As Bulls Gain More Grounds Key Resistance Levels: $275, $300, $350 Key Support Levels: $200, $160, $120 BCH/USD Price Long-term Trend: Bullish Bitcoin Cash has maintained its bullish run as the resistance at $240 and $260 were broken. Unfortunately, BCH reached a high of $280 but was resisted. The bears pulled back to the low of $260. The market is holding above $260 support. On the upside, if the bulls sustain price above $260 and the $280 resistance is broken, BCH is likely to reach a high of $350. On the other hand, where the bulls fail to overcome the current resistance, price will fall to the low above $260. BCH/USD – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Bitcoin cash is above 80% range of the daily stochastic. This means that BCH is in the overbought region of the market. It also means that sellers may emerge at the $280 overbought region. The downward move has already began. Although, the extend of the downward move is unclear. The 26-day EMA is acting as resistance to the coin BCH/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish On the 4-Hour chart, BCH is in an uptrend. BCH is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. BCH has reached a high of $280. The price is retracing from a high of $280 to a low of $260. BCH/USD – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading BCH has risen to level 54 of the daily Relative Strength Index period 14. BCH is above the centerline 50 which means that it is in an uptrend zone. The moving averages are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash has moved closer to the uptrend zone as the market reaches a high of $280.The bulls are yet to break above the current resistance after being resisted twice. The price is currently consolidating above $260 to resume an upward move. Source: https://learn2.trade -
GBPJPY Recovers Momentum Beyond The Level At 134.00 GBPJPY Price Analysis – April 8 The British pound got some momentum and pushed the GBPJPY cross to fresh session highs, above the level of 134.70. The claim that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been reported to be in a stable state, although he continued in ICU, appeared to be the only variable that contributed considerable strength to the pound. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 147.95, 138.68, 134.72 Support Levels: 130.49, 127.54, 122.75 GBPJPY Long term Trend: Ranging In the broader context, ongoing development implies that market behavior at a level of 122.75 (low) is simply a horizontal consolidation trend which has been concluded at 147.95 level. Bigger downward trend from level 195.86 (high) and that from level 251.09 (high) may continue. The 122.75 level break may approach the 195.86 to 122.75 forecast of 61.8 percent from the next level of 147.95 to 102.76. The trend would in any way stay bearish as long as the level of resistance stays at 147.95. GBPJPY Short term Trend: Ranging GBPJPY stays in the corrective increase from the level of 123.99 and the trend remains intact. Another increase may be observed, but the upside would be constrained by a retraction of 61.8 percent from 144.95 to 123.99 at 136.92 levels to restart downward movement. On the downside, a break of 129.85 minor support levels can alter the downside bias for a low level of 123.94 retests. The sustained break of the level at 137.00 may, nevertheless, improve the chances of trend reversal and shift emphasis to the level of resistance 144.95. Instrument: GBPJPY Order: Sell Entry price: 134.72 Stop: 135.00 Target: 133.39 Source: https://learn2.trade
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 9th April 2020. FX Update – April 9 – 4 Key Events Today.Narrow ranges have been prevailing in currency markets ahead of some big event risk items on today’s calendar.Asian and European stock markets, and US index futures, have retained buoyancy amid hopes that the peak global coronavirus infection rate may be approaching, which could mark the end of “phase 1” of the pandemic, with “phase 2” being how to exit from lockdowns while there is, as yet, no vaccine or cure.EURUSD has posted a 40-pip range so far, with a two-day low at 1.0840 marking the downside limit. USDJPY has been idling in a 26-pip range, with 109.06 marking the upside cap. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s, below yesterday’s one-week high at 1.2421. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care for what is now a fourth day. Official updates, as of yesterday, reported that he was responding well to treatment, but after downplaying his condition ahead of him being admitted to hospital and then an ICU, there is a degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of this. AUDUSD has edged out a 24-day high at 0.6246, buoyed by the current optimism in stock and commodity markets. USDCAD has posted a range of 1.4000-14054, holding within yesterday’s range. Ahead today, attention will be on: The recommencement of the EU finance ministers’ meeting, at 15:00 GMT after yesterday’s meeting failed to find an accord on a region-wide fiscal plan to offset the impact of virus-containment measures. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations will also begin its teleconference meeting, from 14:00 GMT.Markets are looking for an agreement to slash crude output by 10 mln barrels a day. There is significant scepticism among oil analysts that even a cut of this magnitude would be sufficient to offset the level of recent demand destruction. In the US, the weekly jobless claims report will once again take top billing (it’s expected to once again paint a dismal picture), along with ongoing deliberations in the US Congress on fiscal relief measures. Finally, FED Chair Powell is scheduled on a conference call from the Brookings Institution in Washington DC. Note that trading will thin into the long weekend and tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 8th April 2020. April 8 – Europe and EUR update.Sentiment collapsed further in European session on the news that EU finance ministers failed to reach deal and also on the announcement from German institutes, which they estimated nearly 10% contraction in Q2, the sharpest decline since records began in 1970. This topped the concerns of pandemic and related shutdown of the economy.EU leaders will meet again tomorrow. Discussions on how to finance a European wide response package to the pandemic have not yet found a compromise. Demands for Eurobonds clashing with the red lines against mutualising debt in countries such as Germany, which would make the introduction of new financing measures a lengthy affair even if officials were to agree to such a step. The southern European states (especially Italy) are keen to have debt mutualisation (“coronabonds”) as part of the package. The most likely outcome is a use of ESM funds to finance immediate aid measures, coupled with funds from the EU budget and the EIB investment bank to finance economic measures not just through the immediate crisis, but to kick start the recovery once lock downs have been lifted.Last but not least for European economy, is the fact that ECB lowers collateral standards, to keep credit flowing. The central bank announced that it will temporarily lower standards for the collateral that banks can use to access ECB funds. The move is aimed at keeping credit flowing through the crisis and will also allow Greek debt to be used. Furthermore the haircut applied to collateral, which will allow banks to borrow more money against the same amount of collateral. As a result the ECB will take on more risk onto its own balance sheet, but the hope is that by strengthening banks’ access to funds the central bank can boost lending to households and businesses. For Greece it will also give the government more room to finance its measures to get the economy through the pandemic. The central bank stressed that the “measures are temporary for the duration of the pandemic crisis” and will be reassessed later in the year.Hence as risk-on has turned today into a risk-off, the EUR weakens so far today on USD strength. It will be very important for the long term stability of the bloc that there will be a clear signal of solidarity at tomorrow’s juncture.EURUSD concurrently declined by almost 0.5% in making a low at 1.0829, resuming the bearish outlook in the daily picture for the asset. Yesterday’s rally spread concerns whether the EURUSD possible trend revernsal however today’s swing lower again along with the decline for 7th consecutive day below 20- and 50-day SMA suggest that yesterday’s rally was just a correction.In the 1-hour chart, EURUSD is moving within a tight downchannel since 1.0925 peak, with lower ups and downs seen since then. Hence in the near term any recovery within the channel could be interpret as a correction prior a pullback. Intraday momentum indicators are mixed with RSI at neutral zone posting lower lows since yesterday, while MACD lines have been zeroed suggesting that bulls have lost the control today. Additionally, the mark of a hummingbird by Bollinger bands pattern, which indicates a bearish signal in the daily chart, could signal further weakness in the near term.In order the near term picture to turn to positive again, the hourly RSI needs to sustain a move above 50, while we need to see a swing outside the channel and above the confluence of the latest up fractal and the 20-hour EMA, at 1.0892. Meanwhile, in the medium term outlook, the asset is facing a strong Resistance area at 1.0950-1.0965 (50% Fib. retracement from 1.1146 downleg and 50-day SMA). A decisive breakout above this area could imply to the continuation of a recovery for the asset.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By anthonyconstantinou · Posted
Successful trader is a myth. Everything depends on time and circumstance, also the behavior and approach used by the trader. Right time trade and right judgments can make all difference in winning and losing.
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