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james_gsx

8/01/07 General Trade Log / Idea Sharing

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I am starting this thread off at 1:30 am ET with the YM down over 133 pts and the ES down 16pts. Looks like we could be in for a rough day, but I'm excited.

 

I hope all of you have a well drawn out trading plan for today. Abe, use today as a day to learn. You would be amazed at how many people have never seen a true bear market (not saying we are or are not in one) and are trading today. There will be more in your career of trading, and IMO there is no better way to learn from one than by starting out in a time like this.

 

I hope tomorrow brings a lot of volatility and brings you all lots of profits. I am going to wear my Gecko shirt (you know Gecko from Wall Street). Good trading everyone!

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HSI was down 1000 points (4%) at one stage overnight. The US futures seem to be making a good recovery though. YM is currently 100 points above its low. I have noticed that a massive long squeeze overnight followed by a largely unchanged open often leads to market strength. I think the reason is that there has been a massive 'cleansing' of weak longs so there are no more stops to run or margin calls to trigger. Instead all the stops are at higher level leading to a short covering. What really matters though is what happens at 0930 EST when the equity markets open. It's a traders' market right now and there are great opportunities long and short.

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A good morning to everyone. And good luck today, and everyday, for ever.

 

I am starting this thread off at 1:30 am ET with the YM down over 133 pts and the ES down 16pts. Looks like we could be in for a rough day, but I'm excited.

 

I hope all of you have a well drawn out trading plan for today. Abe, use today as a day to learn. You would be amazed at how many people have never seen a true bear market (not saying we are or are not in one) and are trading today. There will be more in your career of trading, and IMO there is no better way to learn from one than by starting out in a time like this.

 

I hope tomorrow brings a lot of volatility and brings you all lots of profits. I am going to wear my Gecko shirt (you know Gecko from Wall Street). Good trading everyone!

 

Hey James. Thanks for the heads up. It's looking bad for the market from a technical standpoint IMO. Looking at the YM 6 month chart it shows that we are well bellow the lows of July and June.

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Hey where can I get myself a Gecko shirt? I hear rumors they are coming out with Wall Street part 2? Anyone heard of it?

 

Also looking back at the movie now with all these compliance regulations stuck in my head, it does seem impossible for Charlie Sheen to even be trading for his own account. Isnt that against SEC regulations to begin with?

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First trade of the day. Still having technical difficulty with firm stops, this time tried bracket order but didn't work and ended up costing me 2 round trips instead of 1. Not feeling too down about this trade though because it seemed like a good setup. Right?

8-1-07T1.thumb.jpg.7b06e749c16ca12cd40614d5c4a77d66.jpg

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Second trade. Another losing trade. -6. But good instinct on this one to get out before it got worse. -77.78 realized loss so far today.

 

One the 1 minute chart it was a totally different setup though. Didn't pay attention to that.

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Stay aware of the larger technical structure of the market:

 

We had a strong break from balance yesterday afternoon. This morning shows a standard continuation pattern (A-B-C up) -- which led to a new price low.

 

So now we watch for higher low to globex low or continue trend down. Many times on days after a strong afternoon trend (like yesterday) -- the market will form a new coil in the 11am - 1pm timeframe then breakout and trend directionally from there. But technically, we are still trending down at the moment.

 

http://bp0.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RrCgs-vXbBI/AAAAAAAAAW4/xHDOYyRNmNc/s1600-h/S%26Ps+Aug+1+2007.bmp

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Hey fellas, great action today!

 

One idea - it may behoove you to look at volume based charts as well. As you know, I was mainly using the 3 minute but with this volatility, that is TOO LONG in my opinion!! Running a 5000 VBC chart on the ES right now.

 

I'm not suggesting you use a 5000 VBC as that is fast, but even adjusting that up to 10k or 15k can produce a smoother chart in my opinion.

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Hey fellas, great action today!

 

One idea - it may behoove you to look at volume based charts as well. As you know, I was mainly using the 3 minute but with this volatility, that is TOO LONG in my opinion!! Running a 5000 VBC chart on the ES right now.

 

I'm not suggesting you use a 5000 VBC as that is fast, but even adjusting that up to 10k or 15k can produce a smoother chart in my opinion.

 

I moved up today from a 377 tick chart to a 466 tick on the YM. I'm using trendlines now so it matters less and there were too many bars on my chart.

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My software and data feed didn't feel like working together today...or the past 5 months really. I finally got sick of it and cancelled my charting platform. Now, to find another one....so no trading for me today or possibly tomorrow.

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Well done.

 

Have you started to notice why some trades fail and some work?

 

Well Paul, I've started to notice that well planned trades have a better chance of success. Also, it is important to calculate the profit to loss ratio for each trade, which I did for this trade. I estimated the profit to be much higher than the loss if my stop should be triggered. Also, it is important to consider all the factors that could weigh in on a trade, the trend on both 5 minute and 1 minute chart, the pivot point, and many more technical indicators which I don't know but other traders probably follow. But trend and pivot points are simple and popular, so I'm starting out with those for now and will build on them once I figure out other factors to consider, like the print, tick, moving averages, and volume I know a bit about but not enough I guess.

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I know I am making a sin today, I am taking several trades without first figuring out my stops and targets. I am just seeing setup after setup unfold and taking them then relying on the tape/candle movement to determine my entries and exits. Some are 6pt trades and others are 20+ trades.

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Well Paul, I've started to notice that well planned trades have a better chance of success. Also, it is important to calculate the profit to loss ratio for each trade, which I did for this trade. I estimated the profit to be much higher than the loss if my stop should be triggered. Also, it is important to consider all the factors that could weigh in on a trade, the trend on both 5 minute and 1 minute chart, the pivot point, and many more technical indicators which I don't know but other traders probably follow. But trend and pivot points are simple and popular, so I'm starting out with those for now and will build on them once I figure out other factors to consider, like the print, tick, moving averages, and volume I know a bit about but not enough I guess.

 

You are well on your way!

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