Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jperl

Trading with Market Statistics V. Other Entry Points

Recommended Posts

NEWBIE has come a long way since his early days of using technical analysis. He no longer trades by the seat of his pants. He has a good quantitative feel for market statistics and he simply follows the statistics wherever it wants to take him. He knows that the volume distribution function contains all the information that he will ever need to institute a trade. He knows about the peak volume price, PVP, and can pinpoint that with good precision on his charts. He knows about the distributions average value, the VWAP, and he can follow it as it slowly evolves during the day. He knows about market volatility and he can quantitatively measure it using the standard deviation, SD, of the VWAP. He knows how to determine the market's skew from the difference between the VWAP and the PVP (skew is proportional to VWAP - PVP). He has a simple entry technique, entering at the VWAP in the direction of the skew, a good profit point measured by the SD and a good stoploss point at the PVP.

 

(As an aside, a discussion of distribution skew, also called kurtosis, can be found at this Wikipedia site. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness

We use the Karl Pearson definition of skew which is (VWAP-PVP)/SD )

 

But he wants more. He's discovered that trade entries at the VWAP don't occur all that often throughout the day. He knows the market can give more if he just knew where else he could enter a trade beside the VWAP.

 

NEWBIE is about to have an epiphany.

 

Suppose he enters a short trade at the VWAP, exits the trade at the 1st SD. Then what does the market do? If it rarely returns to the VWAP, then the only other thing it can do is drop below the 1st SD. Now here is the epiphany.

 

Another entry point is at the 1st SD itself.

 

NEWBIE knows this has to be a good entry because the volume distribution function being skewed to the downside, (VWAP-PVP<<0) will remain skewed to the downside only if the price action stays below the VWAP. Only two conditions will change this, a)The market stalls near the 1st SD such that the PVP abruptly changes to near the 1st SD or b)the price action takes the market back up to the VWAP and higher. We will discuss these two conditions in later threads, but first things first. Watch the 31 minute video and see how NEWBIE takes a trade at the 1st SD. Where is his profit target? The volatility is still in force. His profit target can only be one place, the 2nd SD.

 

YMshortJuly26

 

NEWBIE is about to have a second epiphany. He's about to learn how he might change losing trades into winners by changing his ideas on stoploss placement. Check out [thread=2189]part VI[/thread] to find out how.

YMshortJuly26.swf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

congrats newbie;)

 

not much to add, I love how your building on each idea in the videos.

 

one thing, If you were starting over as a trader would you just watch 3 or 4 markets with less correlation (ym, gold/silver, ags) and then only take trades at vwap and 1st std dev? that should give more than enough opportunity I would think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

out of curiosity and with something you posted in these threads about stops...if price in that video had actually gone back to the vwap would you have added to your short position if all else stayed the same since probability would have even been more in your favor compared to your entry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
congrats newbie;)

 

not much to add, I love how your building on each idea in the videos.

 

one thing, If you were starting over as a trader would you just watch 3 or 4 markets with less correlation (ym, gold/silver, ags) and then only take trades at vwap and 1st std dev? that should give more than enough opportunity I would think?

 

Yes, for sure. However stay away from anything that does not have high liquidity. Less than 100K contracts/day, and you are hurting for good statistical data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
out of curiosity and with something you posted in these threads about stops...if price in that video had actually gone back to the vwap would you have added to your short position if all else stayed the same since probability would have even been more in your favor compared to your entry?

 

You are catching on fast darth. In the next thread I will be discussing scaling-in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
Yes, for sure. However stay away from anything that does not have high liquidity. Less than 100K contracts/day, and you are hurting for good statistical data.

 

There are quite a few contracts that trade less than 100K/day, and are still quite volatile and liquid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are quite a few contracts that trade less than 100K/day, and are still quite volatile and liquid.

Volatile for sure, but you don't want to be trading anything with large spreads .

So cooter how about giving us a list that you consider liquid and I will take a look at the volume distribution function.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Sure, but define "large spreads" :p

 

For example, try the CBOT grains:

 

Dec Corn

Sept Wheat

Nov Beans

 

There's more than enough action here to make a decent living, IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello Everyone,

 

My first post after spending nearly two months absorbing all the information available on this site. Let me first congratulate the many contributors who do so in a professional non-rancorous manner. It is truly refreshing.

 

I have two questions regarding this thread. First, is there a TradeStation eld for plotting the PVP? Second, has the method for calculating/plotting the SD for VWAP been settled?

 

Thanks,

Karl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Jerry for the summer lessons :) I came back from vacation found that you have really done some interesting work. My question for this video is you said "there is no reason why it {target} shouldn't hit the 2nd standard deviation, the volatility of the market says it should". How exactly are you calculating this? It seems to newbie and me that 95% of the prices have occurred within SD2, so going beyond 95% is not a high probability trade. Are you basing this on skewness calculation? (eg, higher the skewness, the greater probability of exceeding SD2). Is there a skewness risk involve in this trade? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness_risk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you Jerry for the summer lessons :) I came back from vacation found that you have really done some interesting work. My question for this video is you said "there is no reason why it {target} shouldn't hit the 2nd standard deviation, the volatility of the market says it should". How exactly are you calculating this? It seems to newbie and me that 95% of the prices have occurred within SD2, so going beyond 95% is not a high probability trade. Are you basing this on skewness calculation? (eg, higher the skewness, the greater probability of exceeding SD2). Is there a skewness risk involve in this trade? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness_risk

 

Very good questions thrunner and good observation as well.

First let me clear up one poorly understood idea about the SD. Most traders think that 68.3% of the data falls within 1 SD and 95% falls within 2 SD. This is only true for the normal or gaussian distribution. For skewed data, that is data that deviates from normal behavior, the best estimate can be obtained using Chebysev's inequality, which states that no less than 50% of the data falls within 1.4 SD, and no less than 75% falls within 2 SD. No less than 89% falls within 3 SD. These numbers are quite a bit different than that for the normal distribution.

 

These numbers are of course lower limits. The exact values could be computed from the distibution function. But I don't think there is much to be gained knowing that say 55% of the data rather than 50% of the data fall within 1.4 SD.

 

Another important point which I stated as a theorem in the SD thread, is that for any arbitrary distribution, computing the SD with respect to the VWAP yields the smallest SD possible. What that means in practice is that if you compute the SD with respect to any other price (eg the 1st SD price), you will by the theorem get a larger value for the standard deviation. This implies yet a larger volatility at the 1st SD than it does at the VWAP.

 

These two pieces of information taken together suggest to me that getting to the second SD (computed with respect to the VWAP) is not all that unreasonable although of course with greater risk than trading at the VWAP. Getting to the 3rd SD however is problematic.

 

I will discuss in the next thread, about what to do when you take a trade at the 1st SD and the price action does move against you. There is still room for pulling a profit out of the trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Volatile for sure, but you don't want to be trading anything with large spreads .

So cooter how about giving us a list that you consider liquid and I will take a look at the volume distribution function.

 

Hey Jerry, can you look at corn? Corn traded 100k contracts today, beans/wheat were much less.

I don't think gold trades enough to get a good sample.

 

Do you get that many different vwap setups on the russel vs ym? I'm not familiar with the russel really to know how correlated it is vs ym.

maybe just watching corn/russel/ym would be a good start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey Jerry, can you look at corn? Corn traded 100k contracts today, beans/wheat were much less.

I don't think gold trades enough to get a good sample.

 

Do you get that many different vwap setups on the russel vs ym? I'm not familiar with the russel really to know how correlated it is vs ym.

maybe just watching corn/russel/ym would be a good start.

 

Well if you just trade the VWAP itself, you should follow 4 or 5 different instruments. YM, ES, NQ, ER2, ZC would be good choices. I only follow ER2 these days, since I trade all over the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well if you just trade the VWAP itself, you should follow 4 or 5 different instruments. YM, ES, NQ, ER2, ZC would be good choices. I only follow ER2 these days, since I trade all over the chart.

 

Very interesting on many levels.

 

I take it you focus on ER2 now because of volatility?

another thing is how would you order these contracts as far as what to look at as a newb for setups? the most interesting thing about your threads is every time its the total opposite of what i would do off the cuff. With that in mind I would think you would order them... ER2, ES, NQ, YM, ZC as far as what to look at first?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very interesting on many levels.

 

I take it you focus on ER2 now because of volatility?

Actually ER2 recently has gotten more volatile than even I like. It's getting close to my risk tolerance.

 

another thing is how would you order these contracts as far as what to look at as a newb for setups? the most interesting thing about your threads is every time its the total opposite of what i would do off the cuff. With that in mind I would think you would order them... ER2, ES, NQ, YM, ZC as far as what to look at first?

 

For setups, it doesn't matter what contracts you look at. More important is what the volatility is compared to your risk tolerance. Once you establish a risk tolerance for yourself, and you know what the volatility is of the contract you are trading from the SD, you will know what to trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<I have two questions regarding this thread. First, is there a TradeStation eld for plotting the PVP?>>

 

you can use Tradestations 'Matrix' window to see the PVP (longest volume bar)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Dogpile. That, of course, requires manual insertion of the PVP line onto the price chart. I'm wondering how Jerry plots his PVP which updates automatically as PVP changes during the day.

 

Karl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jerry,

 

In (almost) all books is suggested to strive to achieve 3:1 RRR (reward to risk ratio). I do not doubt your method works (with enough practice) since I am watching it and there is nothing unreasonable. But the RRR seems more like 1:3 (taking trade on 1SD), so with one loser you have to have 3 winners to break even at least. This leads to huge and fast drawdowns - if it is not compensated with a great winning probability.

 

Every method has some psychological draw-backs, or requirements, for someone is more suitable scalping and for someone trend following. What psychology set-up or "traders mind" would you recommend and what expectation a trader should have to successfully follow your method?

 

Maybe you could also share some of your path, how did you discover your style. I believe most of us will appreciate it. :)

 

Thanks for great videos and sharing your experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jerry,

 

In (almost) all books is suggested to strive to achieve 3:1 RRR (reward to risk ratio). I do not doubt your method works (with enough practice) since I am watching it and there is nothing unreasonable. But the RRR seems more like 1:3 (taking trade on 1SD), so with one loser you have to have 3 winners to break even at least. This leads to huge and fast drawdowns - if it is not compensated with a great winning probability.

 

Good observation nelo. I was wondering when someone would see this. The point I will make here, is the old paradigm about choosing trades with a 2:1 or 3:1 reward/risk ratio with fixed stop losses for most traders results in a slow bleeding of their account. We are going to cover this topic in more detail in the next thread, coming soon.

 

Every method has some psychological draw-backs, or requirements, for someone is more suitable scalping and for someone trend following. What psychology set-up or "traders mind" would you recommend and what expectation a trader should have to successfully follow your method?

Probably the most important mind set that I had to overcome, was giving up the idea of fixed stoploss on every trade and substituting the idea of risk tolerance instead. It wasn't until I did that, that I became a profitable trader.

 

Maybe you could also share some of your path, how did you discover your style. I believe most of us will appreciate it.

Thanks for great videos and sharing your experience.

 

My style is something that developed over many years. I was initially a strong proponent of classical technical analysis and traded futures and stocks for quite a number of years using classical methods. I oscillated back and forth between swing trading and daytrading, but was never satisfied with the results. Some years were profitable, other years were not. There was no consistency. I slowly came to the realization that classical technical analysis was not going to yield a consistent picture of market behavior. It was too heuristic. I wanted day to day consistency. I looked very carefully at market profile analysis. Realized that there was something there but it was woefully incomplete and in some cases just plain wrong. I wanted to be able to write my own software, but there were no good charting packages for doing that until ensign software came along. Being a student of molecular simulation theory, I knew enough about statistics to realize that the logic of the market could be found in a proper statistical analysis of the data. That coupled with understanding risk tolerance and trade management is where I am today. My trading is now quite consistent and I am happy to say has become quite enjoyable. I am both a teacher and student. I've been both my whole life and I am happy to share with you what I've learned about market behavior. There is still much about market behavior that I don't know and learning about the markets will be a lifetime experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jerry, Thanks for sharing your experience.

I am not sure if you answered this question before, but is the volume histogram, peak volume, VWAP and plotting SD around vwap something that is part of esign SW or did you have to program those yourself? I have checked esign site and found TPO based histogram, vwap is there, but did not see anything else from your tool set.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jerry, Thanks for sharing your experience.

I am not sure if you answered this question before, but is the volume histogram, peak volume, VWAP and plotting SD around vwap something that is part of esign SW or did you have to program those yourself? I have checked esign site and found TPO based histogram, vwap is there, but did not see anything else from your tool set.

 

volume histogram: available

peak volume : available

VWAP : available

SD : not available but can be programmed by user as a DYO

Also if you ask Howard Arrington (owner of Ensign) he would probably make it available if there was enough demand.

 

My own software is presently not available for general use.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is a good news, that volume histogram and peak volume are available. I am not sure if the code for volume profile is open and can be expanded to calculate SD, which would not be too bad of a task.

 

I am tradestation user. All code for indicators is open, and can be used for further development. It is unfortunate that TS does not provide any of the above tools; user forum provided VWAP.. The rest is DYO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sure I have seen a Tradestation study that does the PoC as a horizontal line that 'stair steps' when a new level becomes the new highest volume level. This is a great advantage when looking back at historical charts.

 

Unfortunately for the life of me I can't locate it.

 

Has anyone got 'pseudo code' (or ESPL would do) for the standard deviation lines. I would be happy to write and post EL code from that and would not have to think too hard about the maths :sleep:lazy:sleep: I know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jerry,

 

I am really enjoying how you use market statistics to trade...thank you for sharing the insights into your method. I am new to intraday trading and it is refreshing to see a new twist on plotting distributions (like market profile).

 

I had a more experienced trader tell me one time that you have to find a method that speaks to you. Being mathematically inclined I am really enjoying this way of looking at the market. It is speaking to me "so to speak":D

 

I am really looking forward to seeing some more threads. I am following the VWAP trade and I haven't got anything in the last few days on the ES and NQ (tradewise). Of course I have TS and I have a feeling that my VWAP and SD bands may not be correct.

 

Also to everyone else...I can code a little bit (programmer but not that familiar with TS) and am willing to lend my hand at helping out with the code in Tradestation.

 

Looking forward to more installments, even though can't really trade it due to indicator limitations :sad:

 

What a great forum, thanks for contributing Jperl! Willing to contribute but don't have many insights just yet.

 

One thing I am starting to see is that there are some good methods out there but if they don't "fit" you or "speak" to you they are very difficult to follow. I use to think that was a bunch of crap...now I am starting to see that it is true though.

 

dbntina

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 23rd September 2021. Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.Market News   USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK. Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now. Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%. Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62. USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764. Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL – “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”. Tapering “could end around the middle of next year.”AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653. USDJPY recovered to 109.86. BoE Preview: Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ... One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer.  Ask  even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets.          First a few comments about Elliott Wave Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics.  Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold -  wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns... Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE.  (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways... Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics  to trading   - and  yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word.  Imo, it’s a jump too far.   First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously  'corrupted'.   And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like.   It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because  crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.)   If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie  the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume.  I’ve described it differently in other posts*  ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold.   It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change.  At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable.  Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold.  Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc       ... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate? Long ago I read Hurst.  In a short section of his book he mentioned it.  It didn’t sink in.  Then one day it really hit me.  There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ...   * fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums? ... other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022      
    • Date : 22nd September 2021. Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.  Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News   USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment. Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now. Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%. Nikkei & China down VIX cools to 23.42. USOil continues to recover broke $71.00 earlier – inventories to come later today. Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788. Overnight – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market. FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned. Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Yes, they are all nice, but again it all also depends on your trading skills to make some good money online.
    • Yes, we have to be a lot more vigilant and ensure that the brokers whom we are trading with, are legit and regulated ones.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.