Walter`s First Forex Research (various ideas)

[Don4 10]

Hey walter,Sunday night i was in the middle of a reply,but was logged off and unable to get back on until today. But replying to what you wrote sunday I agree with you 100% just because a range is broken does not mean that momentum is there(that was my reasoning for going the oppisite way) to show me there was some type of momentum there. But think of it this way if I only take my trades at the same time every day only based of a color of 1 candle with an ok RR and I come out positive at the end of my 6 month experiment.Wouldnt you think that I would have something to build on.

[walterw 10]

Hey walter,Sunday night i was in the middle of a reply,but was logged off and unable to get back on until today. But replying to what you wrote sunday I agree with you 100% just because a range is broken does not mean that momentum is there(that was my reasoning for going the oppisite way) to show me there was some type of momentum there. But think of it this way if I only take my trades at the same time every day only based of a color of 1 candle with an ok RR and I come out positive at the end of my 6 month experiment.Wouldnt you think that I would have something to build on.

 

 

Yes Don, I think you can build something on that, but there is a great level of chance here... and its not 100% technicall to relly so much on that unique candle (second one ) wich is a very small portion of information to predict what the market can do from there on...

 

What I find very powerful information is that FHR range... where from there a very interesting strategy could be build up taking into acct a more complex and reliable amount of information...

[Don4 10]

I also see some very nice possablities walter, Hopefully we can build on it.

[Don4 10]

The fip trade could be be one.Around these times.

[walterw 10]

Basicly I had been doing my thinking arround this idea...

 

1rst FHR

 

2nd Break of FHR

 

3rd Pullback

 

4th continuation entry..

 

5th some good runner exit...

 

something to develop really... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

So it would be best to wait on continuation entry off of this picture,Do you think maybe take the range into consideration also.

 

 

 

 

[walterw 10]

Here I attach an example on june 25...

[walterw 10]

Ok this would be today... notice the two false breakouts we had and market just didnt take off... came right bakc inside the range... now when he breaks again (3rd break) and has a hard time to get back in we can start thinking that probably this time its momentum turn, wich in fact happened... here is where a pullback and continuation pattern makes a nice decent timing... on a clear concept of momentum vs cycle.... Would this idea make sense ? cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Makes perfect since walter.

[walterw 10]

Yes, it can be developed and timing here should be one of the keys, having very tight stops and nice runners...

 

Have you noticed icons lately ? I attach some.. this ones are done with a 250 and 25 hulls on 1 min gbp/usd... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Was auctually watching it on the pound with original settings,would wait for the next pullback to the large hull with sig from cci. Have you looked into nina indiacator anymore?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[walterw 10]

I see Don you also have some kind of flip there...

 

About nina, I am looking to develop something from 5 min... and very specific timing in 1 min...

 

At this point I am also looking for a lazy M in 5 min with an icon timing in 1 min... (show you soon ) I think its cool...

 

LOTS of ideas my friend... soon will start selecting the best... but I think this brain storm its good, helps refresh all technicall concepts from all standpoints... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Sounds good walter!

[walterw 10]

Sounds good walter!

 

wow Don, you are premium now ¡¡ you deserve it man...

 

So far this evening I had been looking all ideas been presented at this point and the one I am getting to like more is the FHR Break trade... so would be nice to work seriously on that... (maybe I will open a new thread on it so we can get specific there).... about nina... the fixed look back version really is making my pc go nuts... even I got some good ram here... so we will see...

 

Now this FHR break has a tremendous technicall logic behind and is the change from cycle to momentum... based on a powerfull piece of information wich is the previous hour to London open... thanks Don for sharing your methods and making posible this research evolution... So maybe we can take that direction... please tell me wich other idea exposed here could be treated with more especification... also if there would be some other ideas to keep adding, should we do it here... cheers Walter.

[Nick1984 10]

I go away for a few days to study for my semester exams and there are 383 unread posts! You guys are making it hard to keep up! Type slower hehe. Walter with your CCI indicator on top of the rest of the stuff going on don't your eyes get tired watching all that? May seem like a weird question but I'm actually serious, I've found that a lot of those charts seem to make my eyes hurt the more I look at them.

[walterw 10]

I go away for a few days to study for my semester exams and there are 383 unread posts! You guys are making it hard to keep up! Type slower hehe. Walter with your CCI indicator on top of the rest of the stuff going on don't your eyes get tired watching all that? May seem like a weird question but I'm actually serious, I've found that a lot of those charts seem to make my eyes hurt the more I look at them.

 

jejejej... yes Nick, at the begining it may be dificult to read, once you get used and see how it outperforms so many other indicators you get to like it... thought the indicator doesnt mean anything... its the concepts behind what really matter...

 

Now dont get waco here, we are just thinking... jejejeje... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Ok walter finally made it back,havnt been able to log in all day,until now.

[walterw 10]

Ok walter finally made it back,havnt been able to log in all day,until now.

 

 

How are you Don ¡... I couldnt enter either this morning... got some chart here on FHR... a momentum that did not develop, but notice the cycle trades with the FHR levels....(blue arrows)... some interesting idea there to exploit a cycle day on our favor... Would you like if I open a new thread specialized on FHR ?... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Sounds good walter!

[Nick1984 10]

So what does the CCI indicator actually measure? It seems like a momentum type of indicator not to dissimilar to the RSI or Chaikin Money Flow but I may be wrong cause i've never actually used it.

[Guest cooter]

Mean deviation of the Typical Price (H+L+C/3) in relation to a Simple Moving Average, multiplied by a constant (0.015).

[walterw 10]

So what does the CCI indicator actually measure? It seems like a momentum type of indicator not to dissimilar to the RSI or Chaikin Money Flow but I may be wrong cause i've never actually used it.

 

It leads... and it has the advantage that it doesnt make that much noise... if you combine it with sound concepts on the price pane you got a very nice timing tool...

 

 

I was ccier some years ago, the error on reliyng only on cci its that you loose the perspective on whats happening on the price pane... now when you invert the structure of your analisis and start the argument on the price pane and see that cci can be a very nice accesory for your timing then you get a nice set of tools working for you... A trader should NOT ignore whats happening on the price pane (bars) he must understand all the dynamics of S&R as other key levels as fibos an MP... thats where woodies error comes to promote only looking cci (no stinking bars)... its too risky not to know where you are on the chart... NOW cci its an excellent timing tool.... thats why I still use it... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Ok some old idea here that can become expolsive ¡¡

 

I came to read today a thread here on TL done by feb2865 ( Raul ) who kindly shared a method also been tought at forexfactory, he gave a chat also on this forex strategy wich is interesting stuff indeed... I see it wasnt much followed here at TL afterwards and feb2865 has not been arround either.. but looking at it here and also at forexfactory I found some interesting things we could modify and capitalize...

 

Let me recap what this simple strategy is : the overall idea its to break yesterdays hig or low and play the breakout (period) for more information I would suggest reading this chat transcript http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f55/chat-script-from-nov-7-2006-a-746.html

 

Now I did this observation... High range days had relative 50/50 performance on this breaks, but low range days had explosive breaks ¡¡ almost all of them...

 

NOW and NOW chatterbox pay attention here... for my surprise looking at this daily charts at MT4 I find wonderfull very small range days that had wonderfull breaks... you know what... that was sundays first hours... that becomes a daily bar when monday starts... jejejeje... a very small short day actually, but creates a petit bar that when breaked WUALA ¡¡¡ works like a charm... also there is probably a financial market fenomena here as the week its starting and everything its fresh and this range break gets more attention from some key players...

 

NOW imagine trading a forex strategy only on modays, My Lord wouldnt that be amazing... ¡¡

 

I attach a Daily chart (walter with a daily chart ? :p jejeje ) the arrows are the sundays... look the at the breaks...

 

Also attach a 5 min chart with a daily range indicator where you can see a detailed break...

 

Some idea here my friends... we shall not stop until Tokio ¡¡¡ cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Very nice!!

[walterw 10]

Very nice!!

 

I will Party this weekend ¡¡¡¡ :beer::beer::beer: I think its the finding of my trading career I am exited man ¡¡¡ RRR on steroids...:D