Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

AlexMillford

Locked-in Range Analysis (LRA)

Recommended Posts

Locked-in Range Analysis (abbr. LRA) is the futures (Forex) market analysis method, described in the ebook "Locked-in Range Analysis: Why most traders must lose money in the futures market (Forex)" by Tom Leksey, which seeks to determine the direction of the prevailing volume of open positions, the imbalance of which will enlighten you to future market behavior.

LRA looks at the interrelationship between variables on the chart in order to determine the balance of supply and demand as well as the probable near term direction of the market. These variables are the prevailing volume of open positions, the price range of open positions, and the price behavior after a breakout of that range.

LRA is an analysis for understanding what is going on in the market. LRA gives the direction to trade by any strategy. Let's talk about this strategies:)

Edited by AlexMillford

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last LR's Sentiment Strategy

By determining the last LR's sentiment, we guess that such a sentiment will be preserved and always search an opportunity to enter the market by the direction against the sentiment of the LR's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who Are Market Makers? (Definition by CME Group)

A market maker (one type of speculator) is an authorized customer permissioned to quote both the buy and sell side in a given market (while all other market participants may open positions only in one direction – unidirectional). The main function of the market maker is to provide liquidity to the marketplace (сontractual agreement with CME), usually in exchange for a reduction in trading fees. Market makers often profit from capturing the spread, the small difference between the bid and offer prices over a large number of transactions.

Modern futures market cannot function without such a professional participant as a market maker, since 24-hour trades include illiquid periods when there are sharp imbalances in supply and demand, and if the market is allowed to determine prices independently in such periods, then we can observe increased volatility and price manipulation, which can be very significant and would be regarded by market participants as an increased trade risk, equivalent to an illiquid instrument; therefore, the stock exchange, in our case its CME Group, is interested in the presence of market makers, providing them with privileges in exchange for compliance with the established obligations to provide and maintain liquidity.

Responsibilities of Market Makers

During the specified period of the trading session (American, Asian-Pacific, European), the market makers must continuously maintain two-way futures quotes, observing the minimum volume of own orders agreed with the exchange and the spread between bid-ask quotes (widening of spread for periods of increased volatility is possible).

As counterparties to each transaction in terms of pricing, market makers must take the opposite side of your trade. In other words, whenever you sell, they must buy from you, and vice versa.

IMPORTANT. Why do market makers act as counterparties for most orders, but not for all? The rest of the transactions may temporarily be accumulated by other market participants, both with speculators and hedgers; however, over time, all open positions will pass on to market makers, when one of the parties of a transaction, in which the market maker does not participate, decides to close the position.

Capabilities of Market Makers

To understand the capabilities of market makers, one should know the limited market depth available to any participant: 1) Data featuring the nearest (best) placed 10 bid and 10 ask limit orders shows the price and number of contracts (Level 2). 2) Data featuring each transaction made shows the price, time, and number of contracts (Time & Sales).

CME Group market makers use the full market depth available to the exchange, namely:

  • Data featuring all existing placed limited orders.
  • Data featuring all existing placed stop orders.
  • Data featuring all open positions: price, volume, and side of order (buy/sell).

 
figure1.png.af2d8ff8ad30ba016ca26f83065aa29d.png
Figure. Net Positions (buy+sell) Marketmaker Order Book (Open orders, Open positions)

Market makers collectively create a market for each futures, centrally managing its common pool of positions to prevent conflicts of interest that would arise when working separately, when instead of earning the spread and self-quoting, market makers would get a large volume of positions that would not have a counterparty to close before the expiration of the futures.

What is Market-Making?

Market-making (CME Group) is a centralized automated trading system of placing orders from market participants, which has a common pool of Commercial and Non-commercial accounts, which provides liquidity in the futures market, simultaneously opening new positions (buy/sell) and closing already accumulated positions, so that the shares of profit are distributed between each participant in accordance with the established proportions.

Only market makers know the current open positions (volume, side of order) and we can only forecast but this is enough to make money in the market using Locked-in Ranges, Degree of imbalance, TPSL Levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Method of analysis: Locked-in Range Analysis
Period: 1 October - 8 October

How did you play these «parties»?

Futures:
Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, E-mini NASDAQ 100, Silver

* A maximum potential profit of the Gravitation Locked-in Range

6J-05.png
6B-06.png
6A-07.png
6C-07.png
6N-08.png
NQ-07.png
SI-07.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Method of analysis: Locked-in Range Analysis
Period: 29 October - 3 November

How did you play these «parties»?

Currency futures:
Euro FX, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc

* A maximum potential profit of the Gravitation Locked-in Range

6A-03.png
6S-03.png
6E-04.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Method of analysis: Locked-in Range Analysis
Period: 10 January - 15 January

Currency futures:
Euro FX, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, New Zealand Dollar

* A maximum potential profit of the Gravitation Locked-in Range

6E-15.png
6J-15.png
6B-11.png
6A-15.png
6C-11.png
6S-15.png
6N-15.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 2nd March 2021. Forex Update – March came in like a bull for Wall Street.The major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. Another batch of stronger than expected data helped too. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, the risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%.The risk-on flows lifted longer dated Treasury yields, but the cheapening was much more orderly than last week’s furious 20 bps intraday jumps in the 10- and 30-year maturities. A heavy corporate calendar is also contributing to the losses in Treasuries with the focus on a $7 bln 6-part deal from Goldman Sachs.Headlines:   The February ISM and the January construction spending strongly beat expectations and contributed to upward revisions in GDP projections. The RBA left policy settings unchanged and while that was expected, market reaction suggests that there was some hope of supportive action, especially after the central bank doubled its bond purchases on Monday. China’s banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China. Dovish comments from ECB’s Villeroy, who called for an active use of PEPP purchases and flagging the possibility of a deposit rate cut seem to have helped to boost confidence that the central bank will manage to avoid a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without stoking inflation. The Pfizer PFE.N and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations from COVID-19 in those over 80 after one dose of either shot, Public Health England said on Monday, citing a pre-print study. Forex Market EUR – 3rd day lower at 1.2075. Next Support at 1.2000.GBP– crossed the 20-DMA and currently is traded at 1.3878. JPY – Yen found buyers, leaving USDJPY at 106.80.AUD – holds steady between 20-and 50-DMACAD –CAD has been soft, weighed on also by the continuing weak oil prices during the session.GOLD –slumped to its lowest in 9 months, as a stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal.USOil – below $60 as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment.Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales and Canadian GDP for Q4. Also on tap speeches from ECB’s Panetta and Fed’s Brainard.One of the bigger movers – XAGUSD (-2.19% decline)Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • "The key, if not central, rationale for non-pharmaceutical interventions such as staying at home [aka lockdowns], masking, and distancing is allegedly significant transmission from people who don’t show symptoms.”  The model says home is where transmission occurs, so make a policy to lock them down, make them stay home.  But, the model is just a model.  It doesn’t hold up!  In meta-analysis of findings across 54 studies of in home transmission, symptomatic cases had an 18% attack rate within the household. In other words, most people who contract COVID-19 at home were infected by someone in the home who was visibly ill.   To me, even that 18% is not a valid basis for lockdown and other NPI policies.  But the real significant clincher = The analysis finds that asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases account for just 0.7% of transmissions. If the contagiousness of people without symptoms is not what drives the spread of SARS-COV-2, then no policy restrictions on public life besides staying home when you are clearly sick could be justified - especially when considering the obvious negative consequences of these policy restrictions to societies which vastly outweigh any possible benefits.   It’s time solid data from real-world transmission studies, not models, be used to form policy ... even if they don’t support existing manufactured / ‘consensus’ narratives... even if means reversing or dropping  the onerous policy  restrictions put on humans over the past 11 months ...and  still continues to this day.  Actually, it’s way past time to vaporize ‘policy’.   Gov’ts have no business ‘fighting’ viruses... because, , rather than really fight the virus,  govt  will always use the policy / power to further its own ends.  If you believe Sir Simon Stevens, Fauci, and all their counterparts and underlings are itching to give up control of your face and movements, think again... Actually Actually - at the level of you, it’s way past time to ignore all those policies...
    • Ethereum Classic Price Analysis — March 1 Ethereum Classic (ETC) traded with a mild bullish momentum in the early trading hours on Monday, as the cryptocurrency market slowly recovers from last week’s crash. The crash caused Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies to fall by double-digits under a few hours. At press time, ETC is trading at $10.80, up by about 3.3% on the day. That said, the cryptocurrency market crash occurred in tandem with the entire legacy market. News reports show that Nasdaq 100 recorded its biggest slump since October last year, as US Treasury bond yields bolstered market mood. The cryptocurrency market’s correlation with traditional financial markets and some of the largest indices, including the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500, is becoming increasingly glaring. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency market took a massive beating last week, as it saw more than $300 billion get shaved off its valuation. However, not all cryptocurrencies had a red weekend. Cardano (ADA) appeared to be unfazed by the bearish conditions surrounding the market and kept rising. Meanwhile, the recent market correction can be construed as a healthy and necessary one, considering that the market had been on a parabolic bull run for several weeks before now. Naturally, investors begin to take out profits as markets get overleveraged, like what we just witnessed. ETCUSD – 4-Hour Chart Key ETC Levels to Watch — March 1 ETC is currently recovering from last week’s battering, which sent the fifty-fifth-largest cryptocurrency near the $9 area. That said, the cryptocurrency is trading below a descending trendline and has to break above this line to continue on this bullish momentum. This trendline is coinciding with the $11 psychological level, making it a crucial resistance for ETC. Nonetheless, Ethereum Classic is currently deep in oversold conditions on our 4-hour chart, indicating that we could see a return to neutral levels (at least) on our MACD indicator in the coming days. This technical indication, coupled with the prevailing recovery mode across the crypto market, should boost the ETC in today’s session. Meanwhile, our key resistance levels are at $11.00, $12.00, and $12.46. While our key support levels are at $10.57, $10.00, and $9.00. Total Market Capitalization: $1.45 trillion Ethereum Classic Market Capitalization: $1.2 billion Ethereum Classic Dominance: 0.08% Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Bitcoin SV Price Forms Triple Bottom Chart Pattern; potential Bullish Reversal Level Bitcoin SV Price Analysis – March 01 The coin may bounce up from the support level of $171 provided the mentioned level holds and the price may increase towards the resistance levels of $185, $198, and $217. In case, the bears were able to penetrate the $171 downside, the support level of $152 and $134 may be tested. BSV/USD Market Key Levels: Resistance levels: $185, $198, $217 Support levels: $171, $152, $134 BSV/USD Long-term Trend: Bearish On the daily chart, BSV is bearish. The coin was under the bears’ pressure for more than two weeks; this led the price to decrease to the low of $171 after it breaks down the $198 and $185 price levels. The price tested the support level of $171 on February 23, it pulled back and retested the level on February 26. The support level holds the price, pulled back, and retested the level third time on 28 February. BSV daily chart, March 01 It seems the bearish momentum is getting weak. The price is trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA at a distance which indicates bearish momentum. The coin may bounce up from the support level of $171 provided the mentioned level holds and the price may increase towards the resistance levels of $185, $198, and $217. In case, the bears were able to penetrate the $171 downside, the support level of $152 and $134 may be tested. The relative strength index period 14 is not displaying a specific direction, parallel at 40 levels indicates consolidation is in progress. BSV/USD Medium-term Trend: Bearish BSVUSD is bearish in the 4-hour chart. The price is under the bears’ control and the price decline to the bottom at the $171 support level. The price has touched the $171 support level three times leading to a triple bottom chart pattern. There is the probability that the price may reverse at the $171 support level. BSV 4-hour chart, March 01 The price retains its trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods EMA. The Relative Strength Indicator is parallel at 40 levels to indicate a ranging BSV market. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • yes, SalesForce, CNN, cancel culture, etc etc ,  I do question the  validity and integrity of the election ... just sayin’ it was ok way back when for anyone to say trump was an illegitimate president ... and now it's completely ok for anyone to say that xiden is illegitimate... "not my president" ... not that trump deserved to win ... or that he would MAGA ... or drain the swamp... or ...     ... just sayin’ he would have been a tiny bit preferable to xiden  
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.