Post 1 Trade You Did Today

[Dogpile 10]

This thread is to discuss how you are applying Market Profile to actual specific trading. We are competing against advanced algorithmic-based program trading. Let's share some ideas.

[TinGull 10]

I got short at 644. Rejection of VAL after initiative selling brought it below value and below the 3 day range action.

 

[walterw 10]

Tin : your delta bars speak for themself.... still using some of 5pillars method ? nice chart there... cheers Walter.

[Dogpile 10]

Tin, I did a similar trade but on NQ. Curious what it is specifically that you are referring to when you say "Rejection of VAL"... do you wait for some kind of push away from the VAL? are you looking for just a 5-min reversal candle? or are you shorting on the test of the VAL anticipating the rejection and just covering with a stop at a set point above the VAL if it continues up?

 

thx in advance for any follow-up...

[TinGull 10]

Walter, still using some of 5p's methods

 

dogpile, the rejection I watch for is a peek through the pivot area and then watch price. If price moves quickly back below, thats a rejection to me. At that point I just wait for the 5minute candle to close. If it closes below the pivot area it tried to break through, thats rejection enough for me to take the trade. The stop can be place 3 ticks above the high of the high bar and then ring the cash register....sometimes

[Don4 10]

This trade just happened, I got in even with spread, with stops of 5 pips below sopport and take profit of 10pips, price went up so fast i auctually made 13 pips.

Thanks Walter!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dogpile 10]

My key trade today was very similar to Tin's so here is one I did late yesterday.

 

This one is fun because it combines lots of different buy and sell pressures that I envisioned (and was proven right). Here was my thinking:

 

1. Fridays gap up push to new highs was a weaker push up than the previous strong move up on Wednesday to Thursday Morning. This is an obvious momentum divergence that can simply be seen by the slope of the lines drawn on the chart. This divergence often implies some sell pressure will enter the market at some point.

 

2. Fridays high also showed 'single prints' on 30-min chart (excess high could mean participation of 'higher timeframe' sellers.

 

3. Monday was a very low volume day which formed very fat market profile. Value was established near 1538.25 nearly identical to the previous day. This balancing culminated in a late day 'price spike' up to test the single prints from Friday. This test was on very weak volume. As in Daltons book 'Markets In Profile' -- there is a strong tendency for the market to test up above/below previous key pivots to test if any more business (activity) remains to be done there. Exceeding the previous peak/trough is very common... The fact that this late, low-volume price spike occured on very low volume and fell short of its strong tendency to exceed the previous excess high was a sign of weakness.

 

I felt that the location for a short taken very late in the day could be held over globex overnight session for a play back down as sell pressures had been building for a flush down and this looked like good 'asymmetrical location' -- it was above well established value point and the lower high was being made on weak volume, which should be faded for a play back down.

 

Here is the link to the chart:

 

S&P+Futures+June+4+2007.bmp (image)

[walterw 10]

Thats great Don ¡¡ I feel very proud to see that... keep that great work ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

I went long today to catch the traditional afternoon rally and entered mainly on the basis of VSA rather than MP (there was a single-print buying tail) but here's how I see tomorrow based on today's profile. In YM we have almost a double distribution day. The afternoon rally pushed us up to close in the upper of the two value areas. I'll consider a long tomorrow if we open or push above the VAH and the VAH provides support or if we test the VAL or yesterday's low and price is rejected leaving a single print buying tail.

[notouch 10]

I think I can safely say it's time to drop the long bias for the time being. The next few weeks should be good for MP day trading.

[TinGull 10]

notouch, what are the colors on the left of the profiles signifying on your charts?

[notouch 10]

Blue is opening 2 minutes, red is IB, yellow is IB x 1.5, green is IB x 2 then IB x 3. They come as default, I don't use them apart from IB.

[TinGull 10]

Ah! That makes sense. I haven't quite grasped the reason people want to have those expanded IB areas. Haven't found a use for it personally.

[Dogpile 10]

notouch said:

 

<<I think I can safely say it's time to drop the long bias for the time being. The next few weeks should be good for MP day trading.>>

 

there has actually been some sustained initiative selling on the incredible German DAX -- for the first time in a long time (@FDAX or FDAXM07 on Tradestation)... a market with very high correlation to the S&P's.

[TinGull 10]

Looking like an open below yesterdays lows today...longer time frame participants wanna drive it a bit lower I guess. 13580 area oughtta be a fun one to try and get through. Gonna be tough surfing for the bulls, I think....but, Im not supposed to think, right? Just react....ya...got it.