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zdo

,,,just Sayin...

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preface: I don’t really give a rat’s ass about education or quality of education... ie no special interest in education   

That said, I do harp a lot on how the 'voice of trading‘ education paradigms can cripple noo traders’ development.  My own ‘schoolin’ education was a mix of private and public and was much higher quality than typical even for then.  No matter - it too interfered with my development as a trader and hindered  the journey to a personal awareness of that interference.

See yourself in any of this? 

Quote

...top-down education system has stifled innovation, taken away individual choice, and tied the hands of local educators. The one-size-fits all common core standards do not inspire students and do not prepare them for the real world. The plunge in ACT test scores shows that students aren’t getting any smarter. They are being dumbed down by a controlling system that does not inspire learning. The majority of students no longer want to ask questions and push the boundaries of science. They don’t want to explore the depths of knowledge in reading. The majority aren’t even prepared to calculate and compute mathematics.

Common Core abandons time-tested approaches to solving math problems. Common Core indoctrinates students with so-called “settled science,” discouraging students from asking questions and seeking answers of their own. Common Core is laced with corporate and industry propaganda and sells a very limited perspective in the subjects of social sciences and history. Common Core pushes for social justice initiatives, which are out of touch with reality. Common Core distracts students with screens, but doesn’t impart the freedom necessary for students to explore past the boundaries. Common Core is presented in a way to indoctrinate, instead of expanding student’s own ability to problem solve and pursue knowledge.


Point is - your ‘scrool larnin’ is likely interfering with your development as a trader in ways  not mentioned above and in ways you have never even considered... just sayin...
 

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Didn’t have time to post yesterday...  Taking money in the morning and trying to keep from giving it back in the afternoon :) ( ... and you would think - I know I would -  after all these years that wouldn’t be an issue :))... anyways...

Yesterday morning predawn I had a dream that I gave my grandpa (rip) a used but high quality tractor with a back hoe on it and he backed it down a bank and adroitly pulled a large fresh stump out of the ground with just the right amount of rpm, clutch, and lift and pull on the hoe... Later in the day I saw this quote “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.”  HD Thoreau... This morning it occurred to me, the “I” is at the root of evil... just sayin’

If no one posted in TL yesterday, did anyone even click on TL ?? more rip?

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AI works with data it is given.... just sayin’

There are rumors that the ‘artificial intelligence’ in all the AI funds may stop buying and even start selling.... just sayin’

...not an issue --- until you consider that there is not a diverse universe of AI ‘models’ out there.  In fact, the universe of neural net models are close to a weird ‘singularity’ esp on the trading platforms.... just sayin’

ie...not an issue --- until you consider that the outputs of Unsupervised Learning models, Supervised Learning models, Semi-supervised Learning models, and Reinforcement Learning models all correlate much more than one would hope.  Ie Some ‘geniuses’ develop an original model in Boston, another team builds a new proprietary model in Chicago... another out of Princeton,  etc etc. etc etc etc and all the models learn to do about the same things.... what am I just sayin’ ?
 

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ever want to talk about how many of the fires in CA were started by energy weapons from us aircraft ?  how houses and cars were torched but not the adjacent trees, etc... ??   :stick out tongue: I'm just sayin'

ever want to talk about how fakebook is being sacrificial lamb takedown so EU, US, and CHn can impose new dystopian social score internet control?    :D I'm just sayin'  

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Re the ‘word’ of god...
God’s ‘words’  do not ‘speak’ in Arabic, Hebrew,  Greek, (for sure not) English... or any other verbal human language ... I’m just sayin’
 

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On 11/8/2018 at 10:01 AM, zdo said:

preface: Again, I don’t really give a rat’s ass about education or quality of education... ie no special interest in education, but I do harp a lot on how the 'voice of trading‘ education paradigms can cripple noo traders’ development. Something 'educational' correlates with the quality and integrity of this generation of noobies... at the least with the sample I encounter now in contrast with the samples I encountered previously     

...

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2018/12/james-ostrowski/what-america-has-done-to-its-young-people-is-appalling/


Point is - your ‘scrool larnin’ and upbringing is likely interfering with your development as a trader in ways  not even mentioned above and in ways you have never even considered... just sayin...

 

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re yellow vests, etc.  he's juste dire ...

Quote

 

...

The lies are now continuous, hence the explosion of elite concern over fake news. The spark that lit the fuse of the current protests was a lie, of course; the fuel tax wasn't intended to "save the planet", it was intended to raise revenue so the elites could continue to extract their skim without endangering the economic order.


The elites' clever exploitation of politically correct cover stories has enthralled the comatose, uncritical Left, but not those who see their living standards in a free-fall.

...


 


https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec18/france12-18.html

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more btw

re " fuck 'democracy'... authentic republics are more better...I'm just sayin' "

authentic republics are more better...but not by much ...I'm just sayin'

quiz:  'democracy' is now code word for '_________' ?

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hey folks, even though i made some bonehead trades this year, 2018 turned out to be a pretty good year... thankfully the bad discretionary positions were properly sized. 

eg fx was plain and simple not  fun this year... too much like work :stick out tongue::stick out tongue:

...

fwiw closed out several 'campaign' / scale trades this year... the long crude trade was one I had discussed the most herein.  moved a small portion of profits to permean... but I'm thinking i'm way late to that party and will have to hold through several cycles for this to really pay off... actually wishing they would shut my wells down for now instead of pumping for cash flow... etc.

got out of shorts on fangs... a little too early btw  (an :almost chagrin:  smiley thang) .. and will be looking to get back in on a fakebook bounce.. maybe... etc etc

and btw Still in the treasury short trade but am not adding size as aggressively as early in the campaign. 

also still accumulating physical silver and actively hedging the position with PM futures


re: 2019... your edge(s) ready?  your 'you's' ready? 

 

only 2 or 3 give a rats ass (as it should be) but my TL time here will be even more limited going forward. 

going bird south for the 'winter' ... then back for a software project

pm if you want an email to stay in touch 

also, the 'voice of trading' on this forum has degraded so far it is no longer necessary to point out its pitfalls... wishful thinking but here's hoping some real quality will step in here.

wishing ya'll all the best in the new year.

zdo

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A cover. 

You’ve been hearing it for years now the Russians interfered in ‘our’ elections, and you’re still hearing it... how they’ll be changing their techniques in 2020, etc , etc.   It’s all bullshit. Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  Russia  propaganda is actually a cover for outright organized election cheating EVERYWHERE . nationwide in 2020. 

“Irregulatities” will be plentiful, boxes of ‘missing’ votes will suddenly appear, vote counting ‘apps’ errors will be blamed  -meanwhile the vote counting apps have built in backdoor cheats to give the election to anyone ‘they’ want, ... and as usual, illegal people can vote ... dead people too. ... and none of it will be accurately reported by MSM.   So Re: digital voting -Think again when you hear MSM say ” It’s just minor issues with bringing untested, non-transparent technology into the democratic process...”  This technology is fully tested to give tptb any dam election they want.  ... and no I’m not talking about the DNC Shadow app (even though it’s a perfect example) . I’m talking about official voting ‘machines’ manual and digital ...coming to a Nov 2nd near you...

Russia didn’t change one fkn vote.  Nobody colluded with Russia (any more than usual). Here’s what really going on... Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant Rampant election fraud

... just sayin’

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Speaking of “covers’

... He’s just saying too...

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/01/30/the-china-epidemic-staging-the-production/

...

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/05/my-bottom-lines-on-the-china-epidemic/

 

Hey guys,

Re: the indexes , I’ll tell you what I been telling all my friends - I hope you’re long and that you know exactly when to get short...

Hope you’re all doing well.  I’m gone again - for god knows how long ...

zdo 

Edited by zdo
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re:  " I hope you’re long and that you know exactly when to get short..."

Most posters tend to use about 90% more words than they need .  It's called hedging -just in case someone actually understands what they are saying and they end up being wrong.

anyways ...

 

 

Re:  “Fuck off”

Most posters tend to use about 90% more words than they need .   Not mitsubishi  :)

 

 

meanwhile... 

it vent viral

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/02/damn-will-the-zombie-virus-apocalypse-never-come/

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-the-contagion-of-propaganda/

 

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Posting is expensive so I’ll keep this short

A narrative of LIES took the markets up. Now, a narrative of LIES is taking it down

 ... bluntly, there’s the ‘dominant concern’ narrative - which is usually fake - and then there’s the real reasons for major moves.

... and btw my dear Bill Gates this NOT the “once in a century pathogen.” ... It’s actually just a gd really bad cold.  I’m just sayin’

...

https://straightlinelogic.com/2020/03/06/irrelevant-details-by-robert-gore/

 

 

... meanwhile back at the panderamic ranch

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-why-its-not-like-the-other-fake-epidemics/

 

ps the accuracy of viral tests is even worse than this portrays ... just ask an objective pathologist.

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/trust-covid-19-test-elisa-and-rna-tests/

 

 

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re: stocks.  Imo,we have a long ways to go down before we get to ‘value’ .  “Even at the March 23rd low...the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio was at 101.38 percent, the 73rd percentile”   No place to be shopping for 'value'

Yet, with all the fake money flooding in, the stock mkt could still soar.  But - up is not really up.  The long ‘bull of the last dacade + was actually ‘bull’sht.  Bullsht = steady injections of more fiat, taking on cash flow dependent corporate debt to finance ‘supply reducing’ buybacks,  malinvestments galore, capital DESTRUCTION - all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE msm narratives and fake numbers - from top numbers (ie GDP, etc.) all the way down to individual corp reports and reporting. ... ie Any ‘bull’ action now is in the  category of obese elephant bull sht...

And as I have been posting for years, we can’t use dollars as a measure anymore.  ie  Up is not really up

https://mises.org/wire/what-if-fed-did-nothing

and using dollars as a measure is getting worse and worse.  ‘money’ not ‘working’ anymore. ..

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/31/what-is-the-feds-new-fima-the-potential-for-a-shadow-shadow-run-is-very-real/

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/30/no-dollars-and-no-sense-eighty-argentinas/

... ” Another day, another trillion dollars.”

 

re:  “all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE narratives. “  Yes, sweetheart the same thing has been happening in the covidity lockdown ... a steady stream of FALSE narratives  https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/peoples-skepticism-about-covid-19-is-the-fault-of-the-lying-mass-media-91216ad7fcf3  ... I just chuckle now anytime I hear any US press comment on/ criticise Russia or Chinese ‘disinformation’ .  Imo, China’s ‘Police State’ is currently only a tiny click or two worse than our ‘Pharm State’.  

Re:  trading. 

It’s been a wild wonderful wide range last six + weeks  to trade.  I have been preparing for it a long time and still didn’t capture as much as possible... for one thing, didn't increase/balance sizing for  those outlier bounces as robustly as I should have, etc ... but still it’s been amazing.  First signs starting to show up that ‘volatility’ is slowing down ... will deal with that by up sizing all positions appropriately.

I’m no longer ‘trading’ fx.  I’m now speculating in fx.  ... gradually scaling into a pretty good sized dollar short...  do you make a distinction btwn ‘trading’ and ‘speculating’?

 

btw atlas shrugged about a “secret coin”.... I’m just sayin’ :)

 

later... maybe

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Posted (edited)

to all 3 of you... god bless

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/they-dont-want-you-to-know-the-truth-or-be-exposed-to-differing-opinions_04142020

As a trader, I have to consider alternatives.  Keeping “anything can happen” near the front of my mind is part of the game   ... that this perfect setup and trigger may not work this time... or the next n times, etc etc.  It’s now automatic... and when it droops, that’s a sure sign I’m the source of increasing risks. 

In the MSM news narratives I also have to consider alternatives too.  It’s now almost automatic.  So some just sayin alt thoughts...

Alt: corvidity.  At best - Policy made in panics is generally AWFULLY bad policy.  At worst - policy unveiled in panics has dark motives.  At best or at worst - panic policy hurts the many and helps the few. Instead of https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/14/50-headlines-welcome-to-the-new-normal/ , JR says it better - so...

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/04/14/covid-the-chinese-regime-sun-tzu-and-the-art-of-war/

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/04/14/passport-to-the-brave-new-world-the-vaccine/

 

Alt:  Bailing everything and everyone out is in effect backstopping nothing and no one.  Backstopping/Bailing everything and everyone out can never be complete... some are bailed  out better than others.  Alt thought - It  might have been better to just stop... simply “No one should be bailed out!”  period.  "...nobody should be bailed out. No company should be bailed out. No individuals should be bailed out. Everybody needs to deal with the consequences of their own actions."  Let’s see what the  current social fabric of this world is really made of.... and btw alt: we are NOT ‘all in this together’.   Let’s see what happens when a large percentage of  businesses fail, re-org or be taken over and re-orgd.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/04/12/the-road-to-perdition-is-paved-with-evil-intentions/

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/04/13/the-road-to-perdition-is-paved-with-evil-intentions-a-final-reckoning/

Alt:  Are the FAANGs really the best buy trade on the whole planet right now?  Really?  They have as much or more operational and revenue fragility than most of the companies they are outperforming ... hm.  And they actually have very little self control ... rapidly decreasing adaptability...

  (if it hasn’t been taken down .... run at 1.75 speed...)

Edited by zdo

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to all 2 of you


 

Quote

 

...

All was not well in wholesale dollar markets at least five months before the virus hit, so the problem is more complex than a simple return to normality when the virus passes. Furthermore, the authorities trying to keep the economy from imploding are out of their depth, so much so that individuals in the private sector are gradually realising it as well. Financial risk has escalated considerably, which has one effect: bankers will use every opportunity to reduce the size of their balance sheets. The authorities will struggle to get banks to hold fast, let alone distribute subsidies to producers and consumers alike.

...


 

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-destructive-force-of-bank-credit

 

ps:  newsflash you heard it here first - covid19 has already mutated... the copies they are using to engineer 'vaccines' are useless... reminds me of 1976 (profitable to a few) swine flu vaccine fraud...

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Posted (edited)

Lockdown LIES = something like a Milgram / Asch /Fow Chi: 'experiment' on the masses

Subject: Why must I press the shock button?

Fow Chi: We must flatten the curve and raise the line.

Zap followed by whimpers.

Subject: The patient sounds like this is hurting him.

Asch: Some must suffer today so that some old people can die of the flu, next year.

Next higher voltage switch, zap, followed by a scream for mercy.

Subject: I don’t know how much more the patient can take.

Fow Chi: What part of flatten the curve and raise the line don’t you understand?

Subject: I don’t understand how torturing this system helps anything.

Chi :  How dare you! I am Doctor Fow Chi, M.D., D.O., S.T.A.T.I.S.T., Ph.D. I, and I alone know what is best.

Voltage up, zap, blood curdling scream.

Subject: I still don’t understand.

Milgram : And oh by the way you are not zapping just one guy but almost every business owner in America.

Subject: I won’t!

Asch: You will, because I am wearing a white lab coat!

Subject: Do you understand economics? Economic policy? Economic history even?

Chi: Of course not! All irrelevant to flattening the curve and raising the line.

Subject: I don’t know …

Asch: Here is a bunch of money and laws that say you do not have to pay your bills.

Voltage up. Zap. A low moan, then silence.

 

....

ie

https://mises.org/wire/exactly-how-many-deaths-are-needed-justify-giving-governments-control-everything

 

....

 

 

more "At best - Policy made in panics is generally AWFULLY bad policy.  At worst - policy unveiled in panics has dark motives.  At best or at worst - panic policy hurts the many and helps the few. "

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-trickle-up-bailout

 

....

 

Stick around ... for ... as the world turns... for... as your fiat literally disintegrates... vaporizes...

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-greatest-financial-crisis-hyperinflation/

 

ya'll have fun now

Edited by zdo

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let’s circle back around to the corvidity a moment

whatif - far more humans have been exposed to covid than they report... far more ‘recoveries’ and  failures to ‘infect’ than they report

whatif - ‘every’ death is now a ‘covid’ death ie the statistics are now just plain ole fake

whatif - from the very beginning,  vaccine science is bad science  whatif the consensus models of viruses are just plain wrong

whatif - you lap up what ‘fauci’ say

back to $

https://tomluongo.me/2020/04/18/trump-seen-unseen-vandalism/

where I’m having fun is watching a $ whatif - “John Exter’s inverse pyramid shows how the world’s credit obligations are all supported on a diminishingly small apex of gold.”

where I’m having fun is connecting and reconnecting with my old network of traders instead of posting in forums.  Many of them are more sucked into the narratives than they used to be...  a huge mistake in my view.   Many of them are dazed and confused - but nowhere near as traumatized and frozen as the boys and girls in this laboratory...  just saying. 

later

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Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks. Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00) Wednesday – 02 December 2020   RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00) Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October. Thursday – 03 December 2020   Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month. ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4. Friday – 04 December 2020   Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss. Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall. Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 27th November 2020.FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in FocusGBPUSD, H1Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 26th November 2020.Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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