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ForexBrokerInc

Market Update by ForexBrokerInc

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Highlights: Bank of England decided not to change the £375B asset purchase program and kept interest rates at 0.5%. Yesterday’s decision was welcomed by traders, more on this below. The US Dollar Index (DXY) resumed recent downtrend and is set to test major support. The long-dollar bet that the greenback will continue to rally seems to be coming under a pressure given Fed being unlikely to raise interest rates this year and the trade deficit (trade balance) grew to multi-year high of $-51.37B, as reported last Tuesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

There’s little change in Eurozone’s fundamental outlook as the EU still faces internal troubles with Greece. Recent price action – buy dips – continue to pay off. However, as there’s not an awful lot to fundamentally support the Euro, any gain will be connected with probable further greenback selloff.

 

With the RSI(14),H4 chart showing another divergence and plenty of room before falling into an overbought area, the market is likely to test 1.1350, break above could see fast paced move towards 1.15. Less likely scenario is a break below this week’s low at 1.1130, then below major support at 1.10-1.1020.

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

The British Pound continues strengthening not only versus the greenback but versus most of currencies. The majority win for Conservative party in parliamentary election in the UK last week was widely approved by investors and traders around the world. Together with last week’s trade deficit report for March being better than for previous month by some £0.68B and steadily growing manufacturing and production, the UK is what some may see ‘in a good course for economic recovery’.

 

With the RSI(14),H4 chart showing divergence in the overbought area, GBPUSD is likely to retrace from current levels to 1.55 before resuming its way up. Traders will be looking to buy dips and join bull run above 1.57 towards 1.59. On the other side, a break below 1.55 could see closing the gap around 1.5250.

 

 

USDCAD

 

Following our view for the last few weeks, there’s a little change as the Loonie continues adding pressure for the US Dollar. With Oil prices pushing higher and overall sentiment being against the greenback, USDCAD is likely to break 1.20 and test 1.16s price level in coming weeks.

EURUSD1205.thumb.png.880ea555c0d40640d7eeb88f5a4fd95d.png

GBPUSD1205.thumb.png.f708e9390b56f4f42dedae1b1206bf13.png

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Friday Market Update:

2015/07/17

* Greece is slowly disappearing from news headlines and trading conditions should return to a fairly normal state.

 

* Bank of Canada cut its interest rate to 0.5 per cent on Wendesday to help boost an economy that’s in retreat.

 

* Fed’s MS. Yellen said economic conditions are likely to justify a rate increase later this

 

* EUR/USD drops to 1.0850 finding an intraday support at this level

 

* USD/CAD advances for the fourth consecutive week and posting fresh multi-year peak near the psychological price mark at 1.30

 

* GBP/USD supported by comments about when rates could rise in the United Kingdom could however end the week outside the current 100 pip range.

 

To view the full version of this Analysis,please click here -

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06/08

In short:

 

- Bank of England keeps Bank Rate at 0.5%

- No rate hike this year (our view)

- GBP/USD tumbles down but stops at support in the bullish price channel 1.5570

- EUR/USD downward pressure on 1.07

- Gold awaits a breakout from technical triangle pattern

- AUD/USD supported in range 0.7330 - 0.7420 major support 0.7250

- NFP and Unemployment Rate for July is due tomorrow

 

Visit our YouTube Channel to view this Analysis Live

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Market Comment 18/08/2015

 

- UK's Annual Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1%

- UK's Core Inflation measure accelerated to 1.2%

- GBP/USD tests an important resistance at 1.57

- EUR/USD remains supported at 1.1050 but pay attention to any break below

- GOLD supported above $1112 aims at $1130

 

To view full version of the Analysis please visit ForexBrokerInc YouTube Channel

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Friday Market Highlights 28/08/2015

 

- ECB and RBA to announce Bank Rates next week

- Unemployment rate in EU and US with NFP out next week

- AUD/USD is at very important support level

- Gold attracts buyers and next week may see another bullish wave

 

To view the full version of the Analysis please visit ForexBrokerInc Youtube Channel

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Market visibility clouded by China and the Fed

 

Market visibility clouded by China and the Fed Zak Mir, technical analyst for ShareProphets.com, opened the Tip TV Finance show today alongside Mike Ingram, strategist at BGC Partners, to discuss the ongoing situations concerning the Fed rate hike and the China meltdown.

 

Transparency required in the global market

 

Ingram began by noting the rounding up of journalists in China, and he added the fog surrounding China must clear in order for the world to understand the problems facing it and to react accordingly. In terms of the Fed, Ingram commented that the time of the rate hike remains in the balance, despite it being said over the weekend that the Fed will look through China to raise rates, as we await the non-farm payroll numbers on Friday.

 

Full house buy alert for stocks

 

Ingram questioned their decision as he believes it isn’t as easy to call the bottom, and that we are not going to see any resolution to the current crash. He outlined how Morgan Stanley were overweight on European equities like everyone else, and went on to highlight that Europe is improving economically - but sustainability is the key. Whilst discussing recovery, Ingram noted that the US has experienced one of the worst recoveries in history, only growing at rates of less than 3%.

 

See more at: Market visibility clouded by China and the Fed | TipTV.co.uk

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GBP/USD made a significant bearish move towards 12 week low and is on track to test the low of 1.52. Weakness in GBPUSD is in line with the bearish sentiment that has come after a change in inflation expectations amid further decline in commodity prices. BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote on Bank Rate on Thursday 10, a week before FED’s Rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement.

 

There are no more major macroeconomic news for the GBP this week and thus attention goes to the fundamentals in the US as tomorrow, Thursday Sept 3 US’ Trade Balance report followed by Friday’s NFP and Unemployment Rate will be released.

 

There is a growing interest in the GBP/USD as it approaches the low of 1.52, and positive data from US can easily take the rate down to around 1.51 where the 61.8% retracement (1.46 – 1.59) is currently placed and this zone represents a key support. Daily close above 1.54 would negate the bearish bias and turn market attention higher and create a chance to join a new bullish wave towards the ‘unfinished’ business at 1.60 from three months ago.

 

SUMMARY: Conservative buying above 1.54, selling below 1.51 with the 300 hundred pip range in between looking to set a trading range for upcoming week of trade.

 

To view the full version of the Analysis please visit here.

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GBP/USD – Important Week Ahead

 

 

GBP/USD makes the most of the US Labor Day and hangs on to almost a 100 pip move up during the first few hours of the European session. While the US remains closed for the Labor Day holiday and economic calendar being data-empty the volatility is expected to be very low and rate to remain around 1.5250.

 

Following our view from last week, GBP/USD after the NFP was in-line with our expectations where we see 1.5150 as bottom of the range for this week and 1.54 as the target for buyers with 1.5280 as a resistance in current declining channel. We would like to see a break above 1.5280 (orange rectangle) and at least one H4 candle to close above 1.53 before being confident with a new wave towards 1.54.

 

We see current intraday support around 1.5220 (~50% retracement between Friday’s low and today’s high) with major support around current bottom around 1.5150.

 

There’s going to be more action later this week on GBP/USD and volatility should pick up on Wednesday with UK’s data on Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production followed by NIESR GDP Estimate and of course BoE’s Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, September 10.

GBPUSD0709.thumb.png.73aba6734a14f9707d64080292f5034f.png

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Most major currencies continue last week’s momentum and gaining strength against the US Dollar.

 

GBP/USD trades within a tight 100 pip range and breakout from the current range (green rectangle) is expected later this week. Recently announced stronger sales report from the British Retail Consortium prompts a view that the upcoming Retail Sales report, scheduled for this Thursday is going to show an increase. Should the Retail Sales report come out better than expected then this should have enough strength to push GBP/USD above 1.55. Initial targets for a new bullish wave are around 1.5650 followed by 1.58. On the other side, the first support is around 1.5350 and break below may prompt sharper movements towards 1.5150.

 

After three trading sessions in Red, EUR/USD recovers during today’s EU session and 1.13 should provide enough support for another bullish wave towards 1.15. There’s going to be a lot of interest and movements on EUR/USD and other EUR currency pairs as the European Central Bank is going to release Bank Rate decision (likely to stay at 0.05%) followed by ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement also on Thursday. The initial support is around 1.13 but any dovish statements from the ECB will likely push the EUR/USD lower towards 1.11 a level seen as a major support in current bullish price channel.

GBPUSDoct20.thumb.png.e5b0b2940931b6996d897070e8688fad.png

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Monday Market Update: GBP/USD likely to find buyers 2/11/2015

 

GBP/USD is likely to break out from its current bearish channel and advance above 1.55 targeting 1.5580 then 1.5750.

 

New month brings new monthly Pivot Points for GBP/USD with the opening above monthly PP=1.5347 suggesting an advance towards R1=1.5580. Last week’s low of 1.5250 fell on the 61.8% retracement taking into calculation September’s low and October’s high.

 

Today’s opening gap was quickly filled and with Markit Manufacturing report is likely to be positive the pair should find enough buyers to break above 1.55.

 

As the monthly PP is around 1.5350, this zone should act as a decent support going towards end of this week with BoE’s Interest Rate and Inflation report due out on Thursday and US Unemployment Rate and NFP out this Friday, Nov 06.

 

Expect much higher volatility and movements on GBP/USD from Wednesday onwards as major market participants will be taking their decisions prior to BoE’s air time on Thursday.

5aa71269f4074_GBPUSDNov2.thumb.png.10805a397423bbc4d7c1a80738cc5ee8.png

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Friday Update AUD/USD 20/11/2015

 

The Aussie gains momentum across the currency board and is set to test a key resistance around 0.7250 v the US Dollar as the trading week is coming to an end.

 

Since finding a decent support and preventing failing below 0.7000 v the US Dollar last week, the Aussie is likely to test the 61.8% retracement level (~0.7250), taking October’s high and November’s low into Fibo calculation.

 

We noticed an increased interest on AUD pairs but current Aussie buyers will be hoping to see a daily close above 0.7250 as this could potentially trigger further long positions towards the upper boundary of its current bullish channel.

 

Having checked the economic calendar there’s not much more this week that could negate the current bullish sentiment, which should continue during next week of trade.

 

RBA’s governor speech scheduled for next week should provide clues as to how market participants will see AUD/USD going for the next few weeks of trade but bear in mind Tuesday’s and Wednesday high impact news from US.

 

Summary:

 

Daily close above 0.7250 is likely to attract further buyers aiming at the upper boundary of current bullish channel ~0.75.

 

Daily close below 0.71 would take AUD/USD below its current bullish channel and prompt a fast paced sell offs.

 

As always, we encourage traders to assess their market exposure on a frequent basis and use Stop Loss to avoid unwanted disappointments.

AUDUSD.DailyNov20.thumb.png.ff68e59ec6413c9b64731b2846c54ae8.png

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