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naer889

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Note: The posts in this thread are not necessarily disruptive or negative. Rather they are more often written by people who have not yet read the material, have not read the thread, or don't know what forum they're in. Therefore they are simply beside the point, the point being to focus on the material and put it to work.

 

Db

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Very interesting documents.

 

I'm basing my trading on balance/imbalance, prefering those areas in which suppourt becomes resistance and viceversa.

 

Do you know any indicator that traces these role changes?

 

Thanks a lot for your help, I hope to contribute a lot in this forum.

audusdm30.thumb.png.48985a000f07d1f4bb09fb86840198dc.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Very interesting documents.

 

I'm basing my trading on balance/imbalance, prefering those areas in which suppourt becomes resistance and viceversa.

 

Do you know any indicator that traces these role changes?

 

Thanks a lot for your help, I hope to contribute a lot in this forum.

 

No, no indicators and no S/R in the usual sense. The purpose of the thread is to implement the SLA trading plan (see the first post). You may want to open up a journal here if you want to pursue it. However, if you attempt to implement the plan and use indicators at the same time, they will be at cross-purposes with each other and you most likely be unsuccessful.

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Very interesting documents.

 

I'm basing my trading on balance/imbalance, prefering those areas in which suppourt becomes resistance and viceversa.

 

Do you know any indicator that traces these role changes?

 

Thanks a lot for your help, I hope to contribute a lot in this forum.

 

Just my 3 Cents. I don't trade 30m charts (only D1, W1, M1) to find out where the price is heading. On the 30m thre are too many levels, too confusing and not significant unless in confluence with a level on at least a daily but much better a weekly or monthly chart. It's easy, go to M1, W1 charts and draw the major levels and then work your way down to the daily. As those levels are more significant and don't change frequently you really don't need an Indicator. When I draw the levels I change to a line chart as it makes it much easier to spot those. The only additional thing I do is to look for fresh levels of Demand Supply as I go along.

To spot those of course you need a candle stick or Bar chart if you like that better. Again, this is the way I trade. Nothing spectacular but it works fabulously. Trading is quite simple, it's usually us who make it complicated.

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No, no indicators and no S/R in the usual sense. The purpose of the thread is to implement the SLA trading plan (see the first post). You may want to open up a journal here if you want to pursue it. However, if you attempt to implement the plan and use indicators at the same time, they will be at cross-purposes with each other and you most likely be unsuccessful.

 

 

Ok perfect. I went through the first lines and seems to be very interesting, I'll keep reading through the weekend.

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Just my 3 Cents. I don't trade 30m charts (only D1, W1, M1) to find out where the price is heading. On the 30m thre are too many levels, too confusing and not significant unless in confluence with a level on at least a daily but much better a weekly or monthly chart. It's easy, go to M1, W1 charts and draw the major levels and then work your way down to the daily. As those levels are more significant and don't change frequently you really don't need an Indicator. When I draw the levels I change to a line chart as it makes it much easier to spot those. The only additional thing I do is to look for fresh levels of Demand Supply as I go along.

To spot those of course you need a candle stick or Bar chart if you like that better. Again, this is the way I trade. Nothing spectacular but it works fabulously. Trading is quite simple, it's usually us who make it complicated.

 

This is exactly what I'm doing, trying to trade the Major TFs as benefits are greater than those made on Minor TFs. The thing is, my learning curve was positively influenced by trading on 30", but I haven't got a chance to replicate this trading style into a D/W/M basis, as it has been difficult for me to clearly identify demand or supply areas/levels. Due to this, I found myself comfortable by trading these areas only if they become areas of potential rejection after imbalances, and that's the reason I'm looking forward to an indicator that helps me tracing these levels in which price could react.

 

Thanks for your advice, I'll keep following you guys.

 

(Sorry if my english isn't the best)

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I posted a thread recently called 'Accumulation Vs Redistribution' where I commented on my difficulty on distinguishing between the two phases. I must admit I failed to reply as I was hard headed and set in my ways. VSA made sense to me but I always had a few niggling worries about concentrating on each bar religiously and its volume. I've started to read the 400p Wyckoff book posted on one of the stickies and its already made me change my mindset towards SLA and Wyckoff Theory. I have been contemplating using a line chart for a while with volume and it just makes sense but I won't go too far left yet and I'll look for HLC bars for now. The mindset of 'If A then B' definitely limits you.

 

What I understand is volume only works in certain key areas like Support, Resistance or Previous areas of a push through support or resistance. Volume everywhere else essentially means nothing. Whether price is in Accumulation (automatic rally after 'climax') or Redistribution (rally in prep for a break of 'climax' lows) is mainly down to price action and tug of war between buyers and demand.

 

Its good to remain open minded.

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Fear is red and greed is green; if you use candlesticks. You can measure its intensity by the volume associated with it. The best place to capitalize on it are breakouts and breakdowns with increasing volume, requires timing and the tape/chart.

 

You can see any breakdown or breakout, how people just die to get into it at the earliest, that's the wildest display of greed and fear. Its alright to be greedy and fearful, however; only at the right time as wrongly timed greediness makes you fearful and vice versa

 

Only as a suggestion, if you can identify it on the tape, you would love to see it on charts or else watching it only on charts is gonna frustrate you as it would be too late to capitalize on that assertion.

 

Watching the fear within myself makes me see things impartially

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Fear is red and greed is green; if you use candlesticks. You can measure its intensity by the volume associated with it.

 

Not really . . . For every trade there is both a buyer and a seller. When you see that big green candle and a massive volume spike, you need to remember that every one of those GREEDY buyers was counter-partied with a PATIENT seller.

 

And were they really being GREEDY, scrambling to get long into an upward price move, or were they really FEARFUL, scrambling to bail on a losing short position?

 

Watching the fear within myself makes me see things impartially

 

That's probably a better approach.

 

If you want to get more analytical, you can break the volume down into trades executed at BID and ASK, and then find probability distributions that describe whether these trades were likely establishing new positions (useful information: you know how other traders are positioned and how they might behave depending on how those positions play out) or exiting existing positions.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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In finance, dark pools of liquidity (also referred to as dark liquidity or simply dark pools or black pools) refers to private forums and exchanges for trading securities that is not openly available to the public.[1] [2] The bulk of dark pool trades represent large trades by financial institutions that are offered away from public exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ, so that such trades remain confidential and outside the purview of the general investing public.[3] The fragmentation of financial trading venues and electronic trading has allowed dark pools to be created, and they are normally accessed through crossing networks or directly among market participants via private contractual arrangements.

 

To continue:

Dark liquidity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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i read that insiders can hide volume by using something called 'dark pools.' what exactly are dark pools, and how do we counter this trick? Thanks

 

Hi Lightstar,

 

Great question!

 

Firstly, I recommend Scott Patterson's highly enjoyable and non-technical book 'Dark Pools' for an explanation of these order types and exchanges.

 

A dark pool is simply an exchange that is 'dark' - by which it is meant that not much information about what is traded there is available. Information about when and how much you or any other trader is prepared to trade is invisible.

 

Dark pools are less regulated, which means they tend to support all manner of dubious order types.

 

Consider this scenario: you're watching the ES futures contract with price and volume. Suddenly, the market begins to fall sharply on very low volume. How? What might be happening is that large sell orders in underlying and closely arbitraged products on other exchanges including dark pools are being executed. The ES keeps tandem with these changes - some participants begin to sell it short in anticipation of the drop, and everyone else who is 'informed' steps out of their way rather and pulls their bid . . . a low volume sell-off, where the true volume was done in a dark pool.

 

Hope that helps - I'm no expert!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later)

 

If it wasn't for my darn prep work (which of course has to be done! ;) ), I would have seen this lovely short as marked on the attached chart. It is reassuring to see my thinking is in line with what you are saying and so that bounce at 3618 being the upper line was perfect for looking for a short.

 

Edit: The offical entry might even be a few ticks higher if you followed the crest up, this is just where I saw it when I glanced over.

5aa7121b40726_SH_Apr.24201406_12_55.jpg.5d494c583a87666048d7d481e8a7878b.jpg

Edited by k p

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If it wasn't for my darn prep work (which of course has to be done! ), I would have seen this lovely short as marked on the attached chart. It is reassuring to see my thinking is in line with what you are saying and so that bounce at 3618 being the upper line was perfect for looking for a short.

 

The purpose of the prep, of course, is to find these opportunities before they happen. It isn't possible to trade hindsight.

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The purpose of the prep, of course, is to find these opportunities before they happen. It isn't possible to trade hindsight.

 

Absolutely! I find I'm waking up too late, but for me being on the west coast, its already early enough. The best entries happen easily an hour or more before I wake up. And I love love love, the best entries. You can really sit through many RETs much more comfortably when you're in at a much better price.

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Absolutely! I find I'm waking up too late, but for me being on the west coast, its already early enough. The best entries happen easily an hour or more before I wake up. And I love love love, the best entries. You can really sit through many RETs much more comfortably when you're in at a much better price.

 

All this could have been done yesterday evening. This is the same chart posted over the last two days.

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Well, a VREV at PDL was not what I expected :doh:

 

I found it interesting how we blew through the bottom of the channel so easily. The low at 45 I had in my sights after the channel bottom was gone.

 

In a way I'm not surprised because this huge rise up yesterday all happened after hours, so there was so much airspace on the way up. Not sure if this can be taken into account though.

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I found it interesting how we blew through the bottom of the channel so easily. The low at 45 I had in my sights after the channel bottom was gone.

 

Did you trade it?

........................

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Did you trade it?

........................

 

I did not Db. Even after the discussion about the first entry, there was of course another good one at 9:25 at about 3610 just below the crest. I have no excuses, wasn't even fear really, I just didn't.

 

Oh.. and in terms of the bounce at 45 if this is what you are referring to, that is way trickier for me. Calling a bottom is hard, even though there was a very good reason why this price level might be it. Of course now its worth 20 points!

 

I won't be lost in CWS though or won't beat myself up. Its just more confirmation of the power of AMT, not that any more was needed mind you.

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I did not Db. Even after the discussion about the first entry, there was of course another good one at 9:25 at about 3610 just below the crest. I have no excuses, wasn't even fear really, I just didn't.

 

Oh.. and in terms of the bounce at 45 if this is what you are referring to, that is way trickier for me. Calling a bottom is hard, even though there was a very good reason why this price level might be it. Of course now its worth 20 points!

 

I won't be lost in CWS though or won't beat myself up. Its just more confirmation of the power of AMT, not that any more was needed mind you.

 

All you have to do is follow the protocol.

 

For the time being, I'll move your posts to the Off-Topic file. If and when you decide to open up a journal, I'll transfer them there. However, if you continue to pursue whatever it is you're pursuing rather than follow the protocol, there's really no point in your posting here. If that seems brusque, sorry, but I don't want another 1000-post thread that goes nowhere.

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All you have to do is follow the protocol.

 

For the time being, I'll move your posts to the Off-Topic file. If and when you decide to open up a journal, I'll transfer them there. However, if you continue to pursue whatever it is you're pursuing rather than follow the protocol, there's really no point in your posting here. If that seems brusque, sorry, but I don't want another 1000-post thread that goes nowhere.

 

I fully understand, and thanks for the heads up about moving my posts. My journal at ET is enough, so I will stick with that.

 

What I am attempting to pursue is what you're teaching, execution is my last hurdle to overcome. I might not take every SLA based trade though as right now I'm just focusing on the open, and especially on the extremes as outlined by AMT, and of course the ranges and means. Opening my eyes to the areas where traders are no longer able to find a trade, the rejections, its all just gold.

Edited by k p

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Hello again! I started searching internet for some more info and I have found sth like this : Price, (Volume), Support, Resistance, Demand, Supply . . . (Abridged) - Page 2

 

I see some from this charts in this topic, are they yours? I have about 20 of printscreens on my hard drive and in this topic there is few only. where did you post more of them? tjis is very good stuff

 

Thank you. Yes, it is mine. You can read the Wyckoff thread and find more there. If you'd rather not work your way through 5000 posts, you may want to buy my book.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Hi guys,

 

I am not sure, if this is a good place to post my question, but I really would like to get advice from the Wyckoff croud rather than other parts of the forum.

 

I am learning to trade the NQ according to Wyckoffs teachings and DBPhoenix's modern interpretations. Now I have a few limitations and am asking for advice from you more experienced guys.

 

I have a day job and my trading plan needs to account for my limited time. I am based in Europe and trade the NQ in the evening on a 1 min time frame for about 60-90 mins each day. The corresponding market hours in the US are something like 2.30 - 4 pm.

 

I am a bit frustrated, since I have to play the less volatile part of the session. This leads sometimes to little success due to limited opportunities/small moves only. I am often times getting out breakeven, since I cannot let winners run due to the small moves. Does anybody trade these hours in the NQ?

 

My dilemma is really the limited time, so I don't want to start analyzing stocks and jump around to find opportunities. I want to trade ideally one instrument an a very short time frame for 60-90 mins per day.

 

Why?

 

I am wondering, if you had any advice, if I should do something differently in my position. Trade a different instrument? Or other advice?

 

Also I would like to know, what you guys think about level 2 data for emini futures? I know there are no market makers shown anyway, but you see the limit orders and size. Does this help at all for the NQ for example or is this information incomplete or useless? Does anybody here trade futures with level 2 information and how?

 

Useless.

 

WOuld be great to get some opinions! Thanks a lot!

Edited by DbPhoenix

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    • Date : 25th November 2021. Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields. USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed. Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.   The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now. US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high. Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713. USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65 Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday. Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought. Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
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