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PipSafe

Daily Technical Analysis by PipSafe

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GBP/USD since 09.07.2013 till now was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.68168. During this price uptrend, the price has been stopped from more ascending by reaching to the area of important Resistance Zone made of 5 peak prices date back to 2009(also 2011). Right now in daily and h4 time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the descending trend and warns about more descending. Formation of Dark cloud Cover and Doji candlestick patterns in green area shows indecision market and vulnerability of ascending trend. RSI indicator is in saturation Buy area and with the next cycle confirms the top price of 1.68168 warns about price reformation during the next candles. Generally according to the formed signs until the top price of 1.68168 is preserved, price has the potential of descending.

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NZD/USD in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual upward trend that Buyers over price increases obtained the highest price of 0.85213.Currently price in long term time frames(Such as Monthly,weekly and Daily ) is above 5-day moving average and warns about more ascending in long term interval of this currency pair.Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the specified resistance levels in the picture below and with exit of some buyers from their trades at the end of 7th ,10th and 11th days, the Doji , Spining Top and Shooting Star candlestick patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bearish candle

As it is obvious in the picture below , right now in daily time frame ABC descending pattern with the ratio of 161.8 is observable that with the completion of the D point there is a warning about down of price and descend by this pattern.The Stoch indicator is in the saturation buy area and issued the warning of the formation of top price and the falling of the price.Generally until the top price of 0.85213 is preserved, there is a potential for descending and price reformation in this currency pair.

nzdusddaily.png.4dc5a18e461c2b66eab71bd38099206a.png

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Silver chart since the middle of 2011 till now was in a downtrend accompanied with price reformation that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 18.213.Right now price is above 5-day moving Daily and H4 time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.By formation of Morning Star( With 2 Stars) candlestick pattern on 7,10,11 and 12th days in daily time frame, there is a warning(R=S) for the first failure of sellers in achieving lower prices and formation of a bottom price for increasing of the price in this area.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is non-ideal AB=CD pattern between the top price of 22.173 and the bottom price of 20.589 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 20.589 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.

xagusddaily.png.6a151a36e6387c77bb1e0e3d640237a1.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.03.05 , according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1.07578 and after that the price has started to decrease.According to the formed movements in the last days , there are an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern and Doji which shows indecision marker for ascending or descending and there is a warning for stopping of more descending.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic Bat pattern between the bottom price of 1.04912 and the top price of 1.09446 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles. Generally until the bottom price of 1.05364 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation.

audnzddaily.png.89676afee3a11e86c15c52ec0acbb068.png

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EUR/JPY pair from the end of 2012 till now was in a strong and without reformation uptrend that shows buyers determination to achieve predetermined targets. Price during the recent uptrend was able to record the highest price of 145.614.As it is obvious in the picture below, price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the Up Trend line made of several Support points (Sellers leave their trades) and with creating the Bottom price of 140.296, the field has been prepared for ascending. The first warning for ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level (the yesterday highest price change) 141.947.According to the recent downfall from the top price of 143.773, RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 140.296 warns about price reformation during the next candles.One of the important warnings for starting the price downfall is breaking the ascending trend line (made of Five bottom prices) in 4H time frame.

eurjpyh4.png.2f110b38e3b763af3c0557c3cbe5f35b.png

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EUR/JPY pair from the end of 2012 till now was in a strong and without reformation uptrend that shows buyers determination to achieve predetermined targets. Price during the recent uptrend was able to record the highest price of 145.614.As it is obvious in the picture below, price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the Up Trend line made of several Support points (Sellers leave their trades) and with creating the Bottom price of 140.296, the field has been prepared for ascending. The first warning for ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level (the yesterday highest price change) 141.947.According to the recent downfall from the top price of 143.773, RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 140.296 warns about price reformation during the next candles.One of the important warnings for starting the price downfall is breaking the ascending trend line (made of Five bottom prices) in 4H time frame.

xauusdh4.png.767f45c0bffb2feaf00950c06b14feaf.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014.02.20 , according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1391.908.The price by reaching to the resistance ascending Channel edge has been stopped from more ascend and by forming a Shooting Star candlestick patterns( possibility of formation of a top price and changing price direction)and fixing of it by a descending candle has prepared the field for creating a top price and a descending trend.

Right now the price is under 5-day moving average( Dilay and h4 Time frame) and surmounts the supportive level of 1325.549 that shows the possibility of more descends in this currency pair.Stoch Indicator shows ascending trend of the next candles in this time frame, but because of not being in the same direction of daily(also weekly) time frame it is not so valid. According to the current condition the first warning for descending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1334.496.

xauusdh4.png.59fc1cab9eb6c6219e734f4de8ea0735.png

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USD/CHF in recent weeks has been in a strong and consistent trend in the price movements which Sellers have been successful in reaching to the lowest price of 0.86991. Currently the mentioned price level is fixed as a Bottom price, and it is the most important Support level in front of the price.price with reaching to the supportive level which is shown in the picture below ( made of 5 bottom prices) and the important round level of 0.87000 has stopped from more descend( sellers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a bottom price in daily time frame has prepared a field for ascending of price.

Right now price in daily time frame price is above 5-day moving average and warns the potential of ascending of price during the next candles. As it is obvious in the picture below, there is butterfly pattern between the top price of 0.91568 and the bottom price of 0.86991 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the current bottom price and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles. In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the Down Trendline.

usdchfdaily.png.2bd5ff966c7b3a00a783cbd25067c221.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Silver dated 2014.03.13, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 21.769 and after that the price has started to decrease.Currently price in Weekly , daily and h4 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 22.149 and the bottom price of 20.088 with ideal ratios of 76.4 to 127.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern.

 

RSI indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 20.088 and warns the possibility of ascend during the next candles.One of the important signs for descending is breaking of Down Trend line (made of 2 top prices). Given the current situation of price, the best confirmations for ascending and reformation of price is closing of bullish candle in Daily time frame and being of price above 5-day moving average in H4 time frame.

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GBP/CHF in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual Downtrend that Sellers Down price increases obtained the lowest price of 1.44662.it is obvious in the picture below, the price by reaching to the ascending trend line made of 2 Bottom prices has been stopped from more descending(sellers used this level to leave their trades) and the buyers are hopeful about ascending of price from this supportive level.Right now price is above 5-day moving Daily and h4 time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic Gartley pattern between the Top price of 1.51213 and the Bottom price of 1.44662 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles.In case of ascending of the price, one of the buyers target will be the drawn Down Trendline .Generally until the price level of 1.44662 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.

gbpchfdaily.png.df1e1355d837a86934f87a8e7449ce48.png

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EUR/CAD was in a strong and consistent uptrend during the recent months that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.55813.Price is going toward the support level of 1.52000 (the important psychic level of Sellers) and there is not any clear reason of buy signal in long term time frames such as Weekly and daily.

 

Right now in Daily and 4H time frames price is under 5-day moving average which shows consistent descending trend. According to the formed movements in the previous week, there is a Spining Top candlestick pattern which shows indecision marker for ascending or descending and there is a warning for stopping of more descending.

 

RSI indicator in weekly time frame is in saturation Buy area(also divergence mode in Daily time frame) that confirms the current Top price and warns about changing price direction. Generally until the price level of 1.55813 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and descending.

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.03.17, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1.07382 and after that the price has started to decrease. Currently price in H4 and H1 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below, price has been stopped from more ascending with reaching to the Down Trendline made of several resistance points (buyers leave their trades) and with creating the top price of 1.07382, the field has been prepared for descending.

 

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency, in long period of time there is good potential for growth of price but According to the current situation there is not any clear reason about ascending of price in H4 and Daily time frames. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in H4 time frame

audnzdh4.png.c97836914f32747f4e98918d25aef528.png

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AUD/CAD during the recent week was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.03155. Right now price in long time frames such as monthly, weekly and daily is above 5-day moving average and warns about price increase in long period of time. Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the specified resistance levels(Support=Resistance) in the picture below and with exit of some buyers from their trades at the end of 26th and 28th days, the Shooting Star and Hanging Man candlestick patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bearish candle.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below between the bottom price of 0.91701 and the top price of 1.03155, there is a AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point (also formation of butterfly pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for descending of price.RSI indicator is in saturation Buy area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current Top price and warns about descending of price during the next candles.One of the important warnings for decreasing of is breaking of supportive level of 1.01809 (Low level of price changes in the previous daily candle).

audcaddaily.png.30224dc0e741a603eadb03a19dc3adbb.png

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EUR/NZD in recent weeks has been in a strong and consistent trend in the price movements which Sellers have been successful in reaching to the lowest price of 1.57654. Currently the mentioned price level is fixed as a bottom price, and it is the most important Support level in front of the price.Currently price in long term time frames like monthly, weekly and daily time frames is under 5 day moving average which shows a consistent descending trend in long period of time.Price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the supportive edge of Up Channel technical pattern (sellers use this lever to exit their trades) and starts to ascend.

 

In the range of formed bottom price there are Hammer and inverted Hammer candlestick pattern that shows the possibility for formation of a successful bottom price in continuing ascending trend.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the top price of 1.69937 and the bottom price of 1.57654 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles.According to the current condition the first warning for ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1.59591.

eurnzddaily.png.fb62b38d1fd04717cc2c0a6d0cc78a1a.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.02.25, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened.Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 0.93006.Right now in daily and H4 time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the descending trend and warns about more descending.Price stopped by reaching to the important resistance level of 0.93000 and after trying to break this resistance level twice that was unsuccessful, the price created a top price under that level.

 

Currently in daily time frame with formation of Shooting Star(also doji) candlestick pattern (the failure of buyers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more ascending and there is a possibility of formation of a top price and finally descending of the price.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.86595 and the top price of 0.93006 with ideal ratios of 38.2 to 224.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and confirms the current top price, also wars about formation of a top price. Generally until the top price of 0.93006 is preserved, price has the potential of descending.

audusddaily.png.dac1825e466f481b10349f235fd597f9.png

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USD/CAD during the recent Months was in a strong and consistent uptrend that buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.12770.The price has stopped from more ascend by reaching to the resistance edge of Up Channel and a top price was created on the resistance line by the buyers retreat. Right now the price level of 1.12770 is known as a peak price by closing of the descending candle.Right now price is under 5-day moving average in long term time frames such as Weekly and Daily that shows a consistent downtrend in this currency pair.

In the range of formed top price there are(Monthly Time Frame) Harami Pattern and Spining Top candlestick pattern that shows the possibility for formation of a successful top price in continuing descending trend.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.96349 and the top price of 1.12770 with ideal ratios of 38.2 to 224.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern.RSI indicator in weekly time frame is in saturation buy area that confirms the current top price and warns about changing price direction.According to the current situation there is not any clear reason about ascending of price in long term time frames. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in daily time frame.

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EUR/USD during the recent days was in a Downtrend that Sellers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.36727.Price by reaching to the Up Trendline (made of 2 bottom price) was not able to descend and break it in daily time frame and by creating the hammer candlestick pattern on this line shows recessing of sellers in reaching to the lower price and also the supportive level of 1.36413.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 1.38749 and the bottom price of 1.36727, there is an non-ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point , there is a potential for ascending of price.Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the current bottom price and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles.Generally until the price level of 1.36727 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.

eurusddaily.png.e9d586cae0575c965e94de597e9bd7bf.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of USD/CHF dated 2014.03.21, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened.Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 0.89525 and after that the price has started to decrease.Right now price is over 5-day moving average in Weekly time frame and warns(in long period of time)about more ascend.

 

The price by reaching to the long term(Daily Time frame) down trend line ( made of 2 peak prices)dated back to the 2013 has been stopped and the buyers were unable to pass this resistance line.Formation of Hammer and Spining Top candlestick patterns with thin body in green area shows indecision market and vulnerability of descending trend.RSI indicator in H1 time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles, but because of lack of coordination with the daily time frame is not much valid.According to the current condition the first warning for Ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 0.88459. According to the current situation there is not any clear reason about Ascending of price in short term time frames. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in H4 time frame.

usdchfh1.png.1ce1370ff08483f4e64027d43a2eb4c9.png

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of GBP/USD pair dated 2014.03.11, according to the formed technical signs, there was the potential for descending of price which finally happened.Sellers were successful in achieving the lowest level of 1.64661.Right now price is above 5-day moving Daily and H4 time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.Price has formed a Top price with reaching to the specified resistance zone in the picture below and it has stopped from more ascend and has started a little descend with shows exit of some buyers from their trades.

 

According to the formed price movements in the chart, between the bottom price of 1.64661 and top price of 1.68209 ,there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point there will be a warning for descending of price.RSI indicator in H4 time frame is in saturation Buy area that confirms the current top price and warns about changing price direction.Generally until the top price of 1.68209 is preserved, price has the potential of descending. Currently the first sign for buyers is breaking of the D point of harmonic pattern in the price chart.

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USD/CHF since 29.07.2012 till now was in a downtrend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.86973. Price during the downfall with reaching to the important supportive level (0.87000) has stopped from more descend and has formed a bottom price in the level of 0.88358.Right now price is above 5-day moving daily time frame that show an uptrend during the next candles.

Currently in long term time frames such as monthly, and weekly , there is not a clear reason for price downfall and also in long period of time there is the possibility of growth of price to the Fibonacci levels of 38.2 in the level of 0.91200 and for the next time to 50% in the level of 0.92600.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 0.99692 and the bottom price of 0.86973, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 78.6 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point (also formation of butterfly pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for ascending of price.Currently according to the condition of this currency pair and its strong downtrend in recent months, price is in saturation sell area and warns about a slight reformation in weekly time frame.

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GBP/NZD was in a strong and consistent uptrend during the recent days that buyers were successful in obtaining the highest price of 1.96327. price with reaching to the Down Trendline which is shown in the picture below ( made of 2 Top prices) and the important Resistance level(Support to Resistance) of 1.96327 has stopped from more ascend( Buyers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a top price in daily time frame has prepared a field for descending of price.

 

According to the previous day changes, previous day candle was closed as Spining Top candlestick pattern which shows vulnerability of ascending trend and potential for formation of a Top price in this range.As it is obvious in the picture below, between the Bottom of 1.90822 and Top price of 1.96327 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that warns the potential of descending from the D point of this pattern.Generally until the D point in daily time frame is preserved, there is a potential for price reformation and descending.

gbpnzddaily.png.1caa47b490389488c1c169e46dfb1842.png

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EUR/GBP in recent days, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual down trend that Sellers down price Reduced obtained the lowest price of 0.81977.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Up trendline (made of 2 bottom prices) and also the round supportive level of 0.82000(some sellers used these levels to leave their trades). and has created the Harami candlestick pattern. Closing of the bullish candle after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.

 

Right now price is over 5-day moving average in H4 and H1 time frames and warns about more ascend. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about descending of price during the next candles.Generally until the price level of 0.81977 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.

 

eurgbph4.jpg

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EUR/AUD chart has experienced a descending trend during the recent week that could record the bottom price of 1.46553. One of the sellers’ targets was the level of 127.2 (AB=CD Pattern) that they were successful in reaching to it and the price was not able to descend more by reaching to this level. Right now this price level is one of the important supportive levels in front of the price.

 

Right now price is above 5-day moving daily time frame that show an uptrend during the next candles.Formation of Shooting Star and Hanging Man candlestick patterns with thin body in green area shows indecision market and vulnerability of ascending trend.AS it is obvious in the picture below, there is an non-ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 1.58246 and the bottom price of 1.46553 with ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that warns the ascending of price from the D point( the first warning for ascending is breaking of the resistance level of 1.49650). Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area that confirms the current harmonic pattern with the next cycle but because of non-compliance and coordination with larger time frame(Monthly Time frame), this signal is not much valid. The first warning in this currency pair for descending of price is breaking of the supportive level of 1.46553.

 

euraudweekly.jpg

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Gold from the top price of 1392.716 till now was in a downtrend that Sellers were able to achieve the lowest price of 1268.477.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Support Level of 1277.658 and has created the hammer candlestick pattern. Formation of the lower long shadow(Hammer Pattern) in the last week candle shows the failure of Sellers in reaching to the lower prices. Closing of the bullish candle after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.

 

Right now price is above 5-day moving Monthly and daily time frames that show an uptrend during the next candles.Currently the first warning for increasing of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1306.402. Stoch indicator in weekly time frames in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price(also monthly) during the next candles. Generally until the bottom price of 1268.477 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.

 

 

gold-2014.04.jpg

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AUD/USD during the recent week was in a Down trend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.92273. Currently in daily time frame price with touching the ascending trend line (made of 4 price levels) and forming a bottom price has prepared a field for ascending. (sellers used this level to leave their trades).Right now price in short time frames such as H4 and H1 is above 5-day moving average and warns about price increase in short period of time.

 

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 0.94600 and bottom price of 0.92273 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 38.2% and 224% that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indication in Daily and H4 time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the 5th point of ascending trend line and warns about ascending during the next candles. Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.92273 is preserved, price has the potential for reformation of downtrend.

 

 

 

WFDF-AUDUSD.jpg

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    • Date : 16th January 2020. Narrow US trade gap in Q4 – Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020.A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013.Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit.The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running.The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area — less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier.The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%.If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25.The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the “trade war.”The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the “trade war” in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020.Beyond the “trade war,” there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling.The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a “permanent” net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities.The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap.Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal.Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Sobering reading isnt it crazy czarina?
    • You cant argue with statistics (statistically speaking.. though) Find out what are your chances to make money with forex and stock trading and which is the “riskiest” and which is the “safest” broker out there. For the first time in the history of trading, you get to know the real statistics of how many investors actually make money by trading CFD’s like forex, stocks etc. One of the most popular questions bothering new forex traders has been “What percentage of forex traders make money?”, “How risky is forex trading?”. There was some speculation, but nobody had significant hard facts. Until now… Most traders have heard the popular estimate that 96% to 99% of traders lose money. This figure has been circling around for many years, but it was more like a folk legend than a hard fact. There was some data from a couple of brokers, but it was not possible to get the results from all the market participants. But now the secret can be revealed thanks to the new regulations. With the new European regulations that came into effect from August 1, 2018, brokers are required to display clearly on their marketing message what is the percentage of their clients that lose money. For example: “75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.” So we decided to gather the statistics from all of the established brokers to get a proper answer on what percentage of forex traders make money. It seems that we are the first ones to publish this information, so you are in the lucky place! 31 CFD brokers were surveyed overall and here are the results: It turns out that the losing account percentage varies from 65% to 89%. And the average percentage of losing accounts is 77%. 77% of accounts losing money still seems quite a lot, but it is much lower than the folk legend of 96%. So we can say that the myth has been busted! Given the fact that all business activities are risky and that more than 90% of startups fail, this number is not so bad after all. Who are the winning brokers / trading providers Now that we know the average losing percentages, let’s find out which trading providers report the lowest rates of losing investor accounts. Here are the Top5: As you can see in the image above, eToro stands out from the crowd with the lowest percentage of losing accounts. 65% losing accounts means that 35% of eToro users are profitable. That is 3 times more than the worst performing brokers and almost 9 times more than the folk legend predicted. What could be the reason behind the high profitability rate of eToro? The main difference of eToro from other trading providers is the possibility to connect with other traders, discuss trading strategies, and use their patented CopyTrader™ technology to automatically copy the trades of successful traders. Apparently, this actually works! Who are the losing brokers / trading providers Here are the Top5 brokers with the highest percentages of losing investor accounts: It might be that these brokers attract the least experienced traders and don’t offer them enough learning and training tools. Here is the full list of trading providers with the corresponding losing accounts: Now you know the true chances of winning in the forex and stock trading markets! Accept that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Winning at forex trading takes work just like anything else. Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Dont forget to like and subscribe
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