Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Enigmatics

Does the Statistical Edge Bring Forth the Mental Edge?

Recommended Posts

Theoretical question and wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

 

Can we assume a system with a significant statistical trading edge will naturally bring out the "mental" edge required for trading?

 

Or is that question too simplistic?

Edited by Enigmatics

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Theoretical question and wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

 

Can we assume a system with a significant statistical trading edge will naturally bring out the "mental" edge required for trading?

 

Or is that question too simplistic?

 

 

It's a good question for a discussion.

 

I would say it is the basis for a mental edge,but as you say,it is a simplistic proposition.

If you don't have the right mental makeup to begin with it's gonna be difficult.Actually that statement might suggest,if we turn this on it's head,that some people have the mental edge before they have a trading edge.

If your edge is something temporary then trading edge doesn't solve the mental problem if you haven't already solved that.

 

Really depends how you define mental edge.Because beyond patence and discipline etc trading is a strange mix of living with risk,uncertainty and,quite often,sheer boredom.We know that after a certain amount of experience you know when you can just keep an eye on things and when you need to pay close attention.But i'm sure many new traders put on trades just because they feel that they should be doing something,not because their system says enter/exit.

 

If you define mental edge as "confidence" well then confidence in itself is no great paymaster.

 

There's a good case to say that mental edge is only loosely correlated to trading edge.

You need both,but neither one on its own creates the other.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's a good question for a discussion.

 

I would say it is the basis for a mental edge,but as you say,it is a simplistic proposition.

If you don't have the right mental makeup to begin with it's gonna be difficult.Actually that statement might suggest,if we turn this on it's head,that some people have the mental edge before they have a trading edge.

 

If your edge is something temporary then trading edge doesn't solve the mental problem if you haven't already solved that.

 

This particular part of your response is what I relate to the most. I definitely did not have the mental edge before I got into trading. I wasn't a natural born risk taker. I'm not talking in the reckless sense of the word, but moreso just putting myself out there and taking reasonable, natural risks in life. I have always been more passive-aggressive and reactionary in nature.

 

Coming up with a method after nearly 10,000 hours in this market studying it's behaviors wasn't the hard part. I'm very much suited for it because I've always had a mind for that kind of analysis. Re-wiring my mind to acclimate itself to the nature of the beast been most difficult part of this process sent I set out on the trading journey. I'm still nowhere where I'd like to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A trader takes money from other traders. It helps to have had experience gaining money from others before someone delves into trading. A person can learn a lot about trading by learning how to buy a car (or any other object) and sell it at a profit. He'll learn how to buy from people needing to sell and sell to people who need to buy. He'll also learn how to cut his losses when he made a mistake and be patient when he knows he is right. Those same skills will help a trader identify when a market is underpriced or overpriced so that he can buy low and sell high or the reverse. The rest is simple. Create or use the available tools and techniques for risk management and market entry and exit and go to work buying or selling. I think learning how to trade in the markets is suicide or you will waste a whole lot of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A trader takes money from other traders. It helps to have had experience gaining money from others before someone delves into trading. A person can learn a lot about trading by learning how to buy a car (or any other object) and sell it at a profit. He'll learn how to buy from people needing to sell and sell to people who need to buy. He'll also learn how to cut his losses when he made a mistake and be patient when he knows he is right. Those same skills will help a trader identify when a market is underpriced or overpriced so that he can buy low and sell high or the reverse. The rest is simple. Create or use the available tools and techniques for risk management and market entry and exit and go to work buying or selling. I think learning how to trade in the markets is suicide or you will waste a whole lot of time.

 

Some very good points but learning to trade in the markets is essential imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Theoretical question and wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

 

Can we assume a system with a significant statistical trading edge will naturally bring out the "mental" edge required for trading?

 

Or is that question too simplistic?

 

I don't believe so, mental must come first. Because unless the trader is trading the system, he will get results from another system, i.e. the system with a trading edge is actually not even relevant unless he can trade it. The system he gets results from will probably be a losing one.

 

Now if he can trade the winning system as it should be traded then he already has the mental side sorted and the question is moot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Theoretical question and wanted to get everyone's thoughts.

 

Can we assume a system with a significant statistical trading edge will naturally bring out the "mental" edge required for trading?

 

Or is that question too simplistic?

 

its a good question...and there is no simplistic answer.....but if pushed I would answer - no

 

Reason - its too simplistic:

 

most statistical edges are probably at best temporary.

just because you give someone a 'tool' does not mean they will be able to use it skillfully. (think of two people with identical training in using a car, sometimes you are better understanding not that there is a statistical edge but where that edge comes from)

There is natural talent involved (be that intuition or a better mathematical analytically focused brain)

one persons statistics is another persons lies

People also have different motivations, expectations and desires to then tinker (improve or destroy)

People have different in built risk mentality. This also applies to different ideas of value - (eg; whats the value of a $1 to someone who has $209k, or someone who has $200m)

(this also would depend on the persons age, demographic, standing in a society etc, and to even think you could get identical test subjects to compare this would be extremely rare and could only be generalised)

 

There is also the persons attitude to luck, their levels of stoicism, and ideas of ego etc etc.

 

I think it has been shown that even with trading systems, even when they were working (think Dennis and turtles) people will respond differently to them, and if anything its that age old thing of trading revealing a person, rather than a person revealing their trading ability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the primary reasons I brought this is up is because of a conversation I've been having recently with someone in my life who is of major influence. He has routinely made it clear that he believes "this trading thing can't be done." He knows of all of my trade executions, the price targets and the stops. At the end of the day though, he cares not about what those stocks did. He only cares about the bottom line and what my performance was.

 

Not once has he said to himself, "Hmmm he seems to have a knack for target selection, so why is he still having troubles maximizing his system?" He proclaimed if I had a bonafied system then I wouldn't be having those issues. I felt that statement to completely naive. I tried to explain the nature of non-chart related influences that can wedge their way into the psyche of a trader. You know things like time opportunity costs (needing to hit the monthly nugget), adequate reserves, a previously conservative relationship with money, etc. etc.

 

He simply thinks all that other stuff is nonsense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the primary reasons I brought this is up is because of a conversation I've been having recently with someone in my life who is of major influence. He has routinely made it clear that he believes "this trading thing can't be done." He knows of all of my trade executions, the price targets and the stops. At the end of the day though, he cares not about what those stocks did. He only cares about the bottom line and what my performance was.

 

Not once has he said to himself, "Hmmm he seems to have a knack for target selection, so why is he still having troubles maximizing his system?" He proclaimed if I had a bonafied system then I wouldn't be having those issues. I felt that statement to completely naive. I tried to explain the nature of non-chart related influences that can wedge their way into the psyche of a trader. You know things like time opportunity costs (needing to hit the monthly nugget), adequate reserves, a previously conservative relationship with money, etc. etc.

 

He simply thinks all that other stuff is nonsense.

 

I agree with him. It is nonsense.

 

I don't agree with him that it can't be done, because I know that it can be, and is being done.

Edited by Seeker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What matters is the bottom line over a large enough period of time. You're making money, or you're not. The market is dishing out the truth to you. It can't be argued with.

 

So it is nonsense because it is an excuse. And an excuse doesn't turn the truth around and it doesn't help you grow and improve.

 

Would you prefer I say that your friend (who is more objective than you on this) is naive? Would that make you feel better?

 

Sorry if I sound harsh, but you did ask for opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both you guys are right in a way but i'd substitute "nonsense" for "issues" Seeker is right about the bottom line Enigmatics is right that there are many issues to work through-but they must be resolved,each and every one of them.

 

Years ago,long before I got into trading I went for an interview with a firm called City Financial Partners in London. It wasn't trading related,they were selling financial products.I was interviewed in an open plan office and the guy,pointing,said to me,behind that door are the top salesmen.They earn 2k a week,3k a week.You know why? Because they have to have it,they got big bills to pay,their lifestyle demands that they hit that target every week.

 

I changed my mind about going for a complete change in my working life and carried on running my business.I did change one thing though straight away- I raised my prices.

 

At some point when I was a losing trader I remembered this interview.I was totally fed up not just with losing money,but hearing the constant excuses going round in my head.And some of these excuses can sound pretty reasonable..gotta hit a certain amount a day/week/month so cut a profit short was one for me too.

 

I didn't realise that I was making excuses,but really any rationalisation about why you didn't do the right thing is actually going to hold you back and slow progress.

 

The list of excuses can become endless if you let it.Is it my fault the trading range was only 6 points? No.But solve that problem because it's going to keep being a problem otherwise.

Every problem has a solution and you have to find all of them...or ultimately you can't do this.

If you do have excellent entries /exits and still you're underperforming,you're kind of proving the point that trading is mainly a mental game.....

Edited by mitsubishi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One of the primary reasons I brought this is up is because of a conversation I've been having recently with someone in my life who is of major influence. He has routinely made it clear that he believes "this trading thing can't be done." He knows of all of my trade executions, the price targets and the stops. At the end of the day though, he cares not about what those stocks did. He only cares about the bottom line and what my performance was.

 

Not once has he said to himself, "Hmmm he seems to have a knack for target selection, so why is he still having troubles maximizing his system?" He proclaimed if I had a bonafied system then I wouldn't be having those issues. I felt that statement to completely naive. I tried to explain the nature of non-chart related influences that can wedge their way into the psyche of a trader. You know things like time opportunity costs (needing to hit the monthly nugget), adequate reserves, a previously conservative relationship with money, etc. etc.

 

He simply thinks all that other stuff is nonsense.

 

There are multiple issues/points raised here.....

Your friend is right - ultimately the bottom line is all that counts over the longer period of time, and that the rest could be classed as merely excuses.

.....however, that does not mean he is right and that if everyone had a bonafide system then there would not be issues. It is finding solutions to the issues rather than excuses that separates many.

 

Your friend is also coming from a belief that it cant be done and hence this clouds the rest of his analysis.

 

......

this raises the old age issue of passive v active market participation and if people believe that you cant beat the market then as far as I am concerned you dont need to say/hear anything else. Otherwise you will simply be looking for evidence to confirm this and then you should be happy to accept the market results.

They should then not feel qualified to offer advice to those who choose to take a different path.

So for him all the other stuff is nonsense because he does not believe you can beat the market.....so thank your friend for his input and move on. spend your time working out if you are making excuses, or not finding solutions.

.......

for me as well this then leads to expectations.....and do your expectations match with reality. You friend expects it cant be done. What do you expect and is it worth it to pursue it and find solutions?

.......

The other issue raised he is that about automated/systematic trading v discretionary.....there are big difference between having a system in one, or a system in another and each has its own problems/issues and solutions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO, trading is all about winning

 

Statistical edge .. mental edge are components and very important components indeed,

but without a Winners attitude they are incomplete.

 

Winning is a habit,it is attitude, it is a belief...

You win because you are a Winner.

A Winner has the mental edge and that in turn develops the statistical edge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the most important thing for progress is to not argue with facts.

 

Opinions abound and we all have plenty, but the facts are what count. If you're trading and losing, that's a fact. Your opinion that it is due to psychological issues is not a fact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In this interactive system, in my opinion, everything is results of interacted. Even there is a truth (or fact), but you may still need to consider the interactive responsive in this interaction system. (Kinetic effect). Developing edge from the market is less superior than have mental edge first before going to the market, it coming from the wisdom of an old book.

 

This kind of edges management shall be different from Mr. Buffett and Mr. Livermore. Is there difference among interaction between personality and market? Just like the management style in different successful business? Regarding to the profit, is current profit equal to future profit? current risk equal to future risk? The battle field is on current or on the future?

 

I always admire Mr. Buffett can tap dancing to work and with righteous life style.

But, I did learn a lot from your valuable opinions. Cheers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Enigmatics, I believe I am in a similar situation: my system (executed well) produces better results than I produce when using it. Thus, my conclusion (opinion, theory, what have you) is that the problem is me, not the system. That being said, I break my own rules for a reason, so my solution is to

 

(a) examine my system and its results so that I am willing to believe in its effectiveness over time, and

 

(b) single out particular problems (behaviors) that I have trouble with and work on replacing those behaviors with better ones.

 

My broader system includes me, and it clearly still needs work. In answer to your original question, it seems to me that knowing, deep down, that your system produces a statistical edge provides a psychological edge as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMO, trading is all about winning

 

Statistical edge .. mental edge are components and very important components indeed,

but without a Winners attitude they are incomplete.

 

Winning is a habit,it is attitude, it is a belief...

You win because you are a Winner.

A Winner has the mental edge and that in turn develops the statistical edge.

 

 

See I believe this plays a major role. Lack of confidence in oneself in life in general is naturally going to attempt to seep into one's trading ..... regardless of statistical evidence. Remember, we're still dealing in probabilities, not "certainties". So it can be easy for someone to slip into the "Well I got my signal, but what if this is one of the ones that doesn't work?". This is especially true in situations where we layer arbitrary time constraints (i.e. paying oneself at the EOM), if we have limited non-trading capital reserves, etc etc ...... and I just think it's easy to talk ourselves out of a trade even if the numbers are in favor of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So it can be easy for someone to slip into the "Well I got my signal, but what if this is one of the ones that doesn't work?". This is especially true in situations where we layer arbitrary time constraints (i.e. paying oneself at the EOM), if we have limited non-trading capital reserves, etc etc ...... and I just think it's easy to talk ourselves out of a trade even if the numbers are in favor of it.

 

This simply sounds like you are not enough capitalized for your trading system!

 

Your system like any other system has losers and drawdowns. Now to trade the system effectively you have to have enough capital to backup the losers and drawdowns.

 

If you have enough capital than there should be no mental edge problems.

 

If you have not enough capital then trading your system becomes a gamble, because the normal losers and drawdowns have a good chance to blow up the account. And you know that. So you try to make your system better as you go with trying to skip the loosing trades. But this does not work by definition !!

 

So the actual mental problem is: why are you trying to trade a system, that needs (!) more background capital than you have?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This simply sounds like you are not enough capitalized for your trading system!

 

Your system like any other system has losers and drawdowns. Now to trade the system effectively you have to have enough capital to backup the losers and drawdowns.

 

If you have enough capital than there should be no mental edge problems.

 

If you have not enough capital then trading your system becomes a gamble, because the normal losers and drawdowns have a good chance to blow up the account. And you know that. So you try to make your system better as you go with trying to skip the loosing trades. But this does not work by definition !!

 

So the actual mental problem is: why are you trying to trade a system, that needs (!) more background capital than you have?

 

I think you pegged me pretty well. I won't lie. I'm still not comfortable with the amount of non-trading reserves I have. I'm prone to letting it seep into my positions when they're taking longer than I'd prefer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
IMO, trading is all about winning

 

Statistical edge .. mental edge are components and very important components indeed,

but without a Winners attitude they are incomplete.

 

Winning is a habit,it is attitude, it is a belief...

You win because you are a Winner.

A Winner has the mental edge and that in turn develops the statistical edge.

Does this look like a winner?

image.jpg.b410a5d8ab01268bc971b87ba3f4d0f8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Define MENTAL EDGE.

 

What do you mean by MENTAL EDGE?

 

In this case, the "mental edge" I'm referring to is that mindset where you're confidently trading your method and outside factors are not affecting how you execute. You don't meddle. You just let each and every trade do it's thing win or loss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO

The mental edge is the mindset to execute the statistical edge correctly.The human brain is wired to destroy the statistical edge ,this is the main reasons why most traders will turn a winning strategy into a losing strategy , on live accounts.

 

Give a wining system to 100 traders and 99 percent will lose due to impatience , lack of discipline , greed , fear , emotions. ,biases , lack of certainty. , inability to trade with uncertainty ,revenge trades , monkey brain responses , stress responses , lack of knowledge experience and a dozen other phsychological reasons

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 12th December 2019. Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.   Policy unchanged Projections unlikely to change much Clues about review sought Style in focus Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Remains Biased To The Downside   USDJPY faces further price weakness despite its price hesitation on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance comes in at 109.00 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 109.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 110.00 level on a break of that area, A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 110.50. On the downside, support lies at the 108.00 level where a break will target the 107.50 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 107.00 level and then lower towards the 106.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further downside threats.        
    • Sterling Advances Barely Hours To UK Elections As Latest Poll Predicts Conservatives Win In just two days from now, a major event that will set the trend for the currency market for the year 2020, the UK elections will be held. In the face of a Brexit extension, UK prime minister had pushed for an earlier election in the hopes of having a majority conservatives win in the parliament which will make the Brexit deal pass through easily. As the clock ticks, with barely less than 48 hours to this epochal event, the newest poll by Survation conducted for ITV’s good morning Britain show predicts a Boris Johnson win by 14 pts. ahead of Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour party. The Brexit deal seemed to give the conservatives an edge as it accounted for 32% of the vote decision while NHS gave Labour party a slight edge. On the overall, a majority vote of 42% was predicted for the conservatives while Labour had 28%. Market Reaction as the Clock Ticks Optimism looms in the market as the prediction of a conservatives win will ease Britain’s exit from Europe by January 31 deadline. The EUR/GBP pair continued to fall till the early hours of today breaking the 0.8411 trend line targeting the 0.8149 resistance level. GBP/USD pair rebounded to consolidate briefly targeting 1.3381 resistance levels. Technical analysis within a 4-hour MACD shows that both pairs may likely touch down. CAD edged slightly higher advanced by USMCA news but yet to consolidate gains. The USD against a basket of five major currencies held steady awaiting FOMC’s minutes due out tomorrow. Against a basket of currencies, NZD’s dominance is the highest. Sterling also gained momentum firmed up by approaching UK elections. The safe-haven, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc remain pressured as major events that will shape the market for 2020 are been anticipated. On the Asia side, significant market activity wasn’t recorded as most currency pairs held steady within a day’s range. In the Asian stock market, not so much activity was recorded being weakened by recently released Chinese PMI numbers. Most of the indexes closed a little lower while US stocks rose swiftly after Friday’s release of US non-farm payroll reports. The outcome of the December 15 deadline set by the US for the signing of a preliminary trade pact will determine the week’s direction and even further into the year 2020. Also due out later in the week is UK GDP figures and ZEW released out of Germany.
    • Date : 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019. FOMC Preview No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”. The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond. USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Holds At The Bottom, Is The Consolidation Ongoing?   Key Resistance Levels: $275, $300, $325 Key Support Levels: $200, $160, $120 BCH/USD Price Long-term Trend: Ranging Bitcoin Cash had been trading in the large price range between the levels of $200 and $240. Presently, the coin is now fluctuating at the bottom of the chart. In retrospect, the bulls break the $240 resistance line and reached a high of $310. The coin was resisted as BSH drops back to a range-bound zone. The bears tested the low at $200 but there was a pulled back. The pullback was a correction as the upward move was stopped at $227. BCH is trading between the low at $200 and $227. The bulls are now having difficulty to move upward because of the resistance at $227. Conversely, the bears have failed to break the low of $200. Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The Fibonacci tool indicates that the coin reverses at the 1.272 extension level. BCH will resume the downtrend if the downtrend line or the support line is broken below. The RSI period 14 level 35 is indicating that the price is falling. BCH/USD Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4-hour chart, the coin is fluctuating between the levels of $200 and $220. The bulls tested and broke the $220 price level but fell back to the range-bound zone. The price is trading below the $227 resistance level; a break is being expected shortly. 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is trading above the 20% range of the daily stochastic. This signifies that BCH is in a bullish momentum. The blue and red lines are trending horizontally indicating that price is fluctuating. General Outlook for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Cash is still confined within the price range of $200 and $240. Presently, BCH is in a tight range; a break above $227 will move price to the high of $240. Nevertheless, a break below $200 may weaken the coin to a low of $160. Bitcoin Cash Trade Signal Instrument: BCHUSD Order: buy Entry price: $203 Stop: $175 Target: $241 Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.