Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

The Bear

Market Internals for Oil

Recommended Posts

How could there be something like that? TICK and TRIN are specific to stock indices where the underlying is made up of many different stocks. Crude oil is just crude oil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Cooter. I was reading those reports from that website a few months ago and I do trade on wed., but I find the reports to be pretty useless for intra-day trading for my style. Maybe more useful for overnight?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Could be. But I'm curious, Bear. Unless you have access to a Bloomberg, Reuters or Dow Jones terminal, you are at the mercy of news and rumours.

 

How do you trade technically, unless your assumption is that the fundamentals are already "baked in" to the price?

 

I'd think that one outlying, Six Sigma event and you're done.

 

Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no cooter : an internal is a breath statistical index from a sector of the market.... there are very diferent aproaches on the construction of internals, but the idea is to know the overrall market sentiment thru this indexes.... foroil... I dont know.... what "market" context would apply...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Could be. But I'm curious, Bear. Unless you have access to a Bloomberg, Reuters or Dow Jones terminal, you are at the mercy of news and rumours.

 

How do you trade technically, unless your assumption is that the fundamentals are already "baked in" to the price?

 

I'd think that one outlying, Six Sigma event and you're done.

 

Thoughts?

 

Honestly though Cooter, I trade oil every day, and even if I had those news terminals, there's no way I could react quickly enough to read the data then trade on that news, or even have it reflect my trading actions. I'm sure you already know, but trading CL is mostly a bloodbath...it moves very fast, and spikes during the day....it's mostly whipsaw. Your right though, a big event could hurt me, but for now I can handle it - i'm not married and I have no children, but you are technically correct...I could blow up...but so can any speculator trading CL or any highly leveraged commodity for that matter.

 

So to answer your question, I use very little fundamental analysis....because personally I think by the time the news comes out...the spike has already happened at the exchange. It's OLD NEWS already.

 

Walter, I can't get the chart for CL because it's on my trading system not my net surfing system. The symbol is CL. If you can't get CL you maybe can get QM the mini contract, OR if you want you can see oil by looking at USO (United States Oil Fund) AMEX. You probably could get daily data on it from USO. USO is a good market for doing overnight trading on oil...and you can share size too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They're related markets but definitely not internals.

 

Crude oil is useless unless you dont turn it into products. Most of trades on crude oil are spreads. That's what the exxon's of the world care. Not the price of crude.

 

Maybe they are not market internals, but it is a industry internals. These spreads and oil prices are affecting each others, just like the S&P uptick because the NYSE tick is moving up. If crack spread move up, dont you think refiners would want to buy crude and run it thru the refineries?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Hey Bear,

Just curious as to why you trade the big CL contract, versus the QM mini? What is the margin on these?

 

How many ticks are you looking to net - scalping or daytrading. Or do you hold out for longer, swing or position trading?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi cooter

 

I prefer the regular size contracts rather than the mini ones. I like the larger risk and the larger potential gain, that happens within seconds. I did trade the QM contract last year a bit, but I found I got some slippage at times intraday...1 tick at the most. The CL contract is the main market and that's where I feel at home for some reason. QM is great for situations where you want to scale down your risk though, and it's perfectly fine for slightly larger time frames.

 

Margin on the CL is around 2000.00 per contract intraday and around 4000.00 per contract pre/post market. Margin may be even lower on ICE, I'm not sure.

 

I trade in different time frames...like the 5-min, 15-min for example....but I go for different targets...usually 30 ticks....sometimes less, sometimes more.

 

I'm not much of a swing trader or position trader (not very good at it), but I'm slowly getting into it again. 2 years ago I was swing trading quite a bit. I'm trying to swing trade MRO (Marathon Oil), and picked up some a few days ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Bear,

 

Horses for courses, as they say :) What about the other energies - Nat Gas, RBOB Unleaded, Heating Oil, even Ethanol (which is classified under grains by some)?

 

Also, one of my brokers just offered me well under $2000 margins on the energy contracts - guess I'll have to check my paperwork and make sure I've got this rate in writing :cool:

 

If you're trading size here, you might want to drop me a PM and I'll fill you in with details.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bear,

 

Horses for courses, as they say :) What about the other energies - Nat Gas, RBOB Unleaded, Heating Oil, even Ethanol (which is classified under grains by some)?

 

Also, one of my brokers just offered me well under $2000 margins on the energy contracts - guess I'll have to check my paperwork and make sure I've got this rate in writing :cool:

 

If you're trading size here, you might want to drop me a PM and I'll fill you in with details.

 

Yo cooter, can you help me out and tell me if there are any forums on the net where oil traders...or any energy for that matter post messages? I trade Natural Gas (Symbol: NG) (Henry Hub) quite often. I used to trade it more than oil but it's been very erratic lately, mostly un-tradable for me. I wish I followed the RBOB market, this is where the action is, but at this point im a bit scared to just take a flyer.

 

Have you ever traded the NG market cooter?

 

Thanks for the offer bud, but do send me a PM once you are setup with your new rates and trading Oil or Gas. Or let me know if you trade the RBOB what it's like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Dunno where the energy traders hang out - try googling it, you might find a forum or two for fellow gas or oil traders.

 

Can't say I've traded any of the energies yet - I think the grains suit my overall risk/reward ratio better.

 

(Still trading the high-risk 30yr bonds though - took 9 ticks last Friday when the report came out. At $31.25/tick, it was a Good Friday, indeed.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dunno where the energy traders hang out - try googling it, you might find a forum or two for fellow gas or oil traders.

 

Can't say I've traded any of the energies yet - I think the grains suit my overall risk/reward ratio better.

 

(Still trading the high-risk 30yr bonds though - took 9 ticks last Friday when the report came out. At $31.25/tick, it was a Good Friday, indeed.)

 

9 ticks, that's pretty nice. Do you trade the initial spike or stand aside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
9 ticks, that's pretty nice. Do you trade the initial spike or stand aside.

 

Straddle on the initial spikes. Only 2 cars this time around, although I've done this with up to 25 cars at a clip. Major stress, though - as you can imagine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
Grains are heavy duty...there's some big action there. What are your thoughts on Soybeans? Pullback or beginning of possible downtrend.

 

I'm rather myopic about the grains. Don't really care where it's headed after the day is over.

 

Keeps me from forming opinions about where I think the market is going, when all I really need to focus upon is where the market is taking me each day.

 

It's a subtle, but important nuance that has vastly improved my portfolio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Straddle on the initial spikes. Only 2 cars this time around, although I've done this with up to 25 cars at a clip. Major stress, though - as you can imagine.

 

Ya sometimes you have to go for the throat....it's how we make the huge gains. I don't like that feeling in my stomach though, when I over leverage myself, all it would take is one freak incident and I'm a gonner...I'll be working at wendy's for the rest of my life :) I find my heart beats so rapidly at these times I can't think logically.

 

>I'm rather myopic about the grains. Don't really care where it's headed after >the day is over.

 

>Keeps me from forming opinions about where I think the market is going, when >all I really need to focus upon is where the market is taking me each day.

 

You mean it's possible to actually trade these things intra-day? I always thought ags was mostly overnight trading. Maybe I gotta check it out one day. From what I remembered I looked at the intra-day charts and they were full of gaps, holes, and mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

You mean it's possible to actually trade these things intra-day? I always thought ags was mostly overnight trading. Maybe I gotta check it out one day. From what I remembered I looked at the intra-day charts and they were full of gaps, holes, and mess.

 

Yep. Since this is an oil thread, I posted some screenshots of the grains over on the Volume on Ag's thread....

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f87/volume-ags-1588.html#post9549

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.