Market Clues: Congestion and Breakout Gaps

[Soultrader 12]

Here is an interesting chart of a breakout gap from a 4 day consolidation. What alerted me of a potential change and a bullish bias was the consolidation on April 2nd, 2007.

 

After 3 days of wide swings (100pt): 3/28, 3/29, 3/30.... the April 2nd range was 50 points and closed near the upper range for the day. This immediately alerted me of a break in pattern compared to the past 3 sessions.

 

Notice on April 3rd, 2007 we get a breakout gap above the 3/30 high and top of the congestion area. The breakout gap also occurs at a key psychological level at 12500.

 

Whats also important is that the following day, the market cleared 12600 without a fight. (see dialy chart attached) Here is a quick breakdown of the breakout gap:

 

Those who are long and planned to short at 12500 are no longer involved since the markets gapped up. In other word, thoese who played the lower bracket and went long now are more optimistic since prices gapped above 12500. Second, sellers waiting for the second attempt at 12500 are no longer existent. A good way for the pros to eliminate supply is to gap the markets up above it. This stops the shorts from stepping in.

 

[notouch 10]

I took a long on that sharp rejection of the down side breakout represented on your chart by the dragonfly doji. The breakout gap was great confirmation so I'm still holding that long because I think we could return to the highs we saw in February. There was some trading on Friday and the price is currently up at 12664.

[Soultrader 12]

Very interesting indeed notouch. I am sure there are many traders in your same shoes holding their longs because of the breakout gap.

 

I do recall you mentioning a swing in the YM... so far I think you are on an excellent trade. Broke that 12600.... Im expecting alot more on this rally. Hopefully what I say will not matter and you will exit accordingly to your trading plan. Nice trade btw.

[walterw 10]

I have a question : what interpretation do you have for the smaller overall volume of 4/4 and even smaller 5/4.... on this up move.... thanks Walter.

[notouch 10]

I was impressed by big volume coming in at the lows. Look particularly at the fakeout of the previous days lows which was accompanied by the big volume spike. I think the low volume was because of Passover and Easter holidays.