Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Crude8

Edge

Recommended Posts

Hello gentlemen i need your guidance in determining if trading system posses some edge.

i have been a scalper in commodities and i have incorporated a new approach which is sort of intraday positional trading and its possible to scale it up to 500 - 1000 lots based on my unscientific observations , unlike back testing or real time simulation i implemented it live on 1 lot straight away without any scientific approach , i am hoping i may get help in this forum who can conduct a thorough scientific dissection if it has some edge or its just fluke

The results are as follows - After 3 weeks

 

Number Of trades - 176

Winning trades - 86

Loosing trades - 90

Winning% - 49%

Loosing% - 51%

Average Win Amount - 1112

Average Loss Amount - 373

Average Win Trade Time - 76 Minutes

Average Loss Trade Time - 32 Minutes

Average Win/Average Loss ratio - 3.05

Profit Factor - 2.86

Expectancy - 355

 

 

Before starting i didn't used to measure any statistics and i found few online which i complied , used these formulas

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

Profit Factor = (Avg Win/Avg Loss)* Win%/(1-Win%)

 

My question is obviously there are traders who are more into statistics than myself , i need your help to see if my trading does have an edge

 

Regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Crude8,

 

Based on the figures you provide, then it is fairly unequivocal that the strategy has had an edge over the period you have been trading it. This does not mean that it will continue to perform in this way. Even random entries/exits tend to produce suprisingly long strings of profitability and drawdown.

 

I, and many others here, could test this for you over a longer period but . . .

 

(a) you have to fully disclose the strategy, which you might consider your own intellectual property and not wish to share, and

 

(b) backtested results do not always correspond to the results that can be realised in real trading due to the difficulty in attaining limit fills and/or the spread/slippage associated with other order types, all of which can have a dramatic impact on perfomance.

 

If you're trading a single contract/lot and the risks associated with this are not an issue, and you have already realised a modest profit using this strategy, then my suggestion is that you look at position sizing approaches that will allow you to continue to trade with increasing size, but remove the possibility of giving back all your profit should the strategy begin to fail. Trading in and out of your own equity curve could be one way to do this.

 

I hope that's helpful, and I'm sure you'll get plenty more advice in due course.

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you for the reply, i have traded only 1 lot live but i have implemented a position sizing algorithm which i have simulated during the course of last 3 weeks, Average Sizing in simulated environment varies between 1-4 lots depending upon my equity and average size comes out to 2.5 lots per market. Unscientifically speaking 1 lot result can be easily replicated on 100 lots per market BUT off course i am not financially ready for that yet.

I do not wish to disclose the strategy on public forum but i can share it privately. The statistics i provided to you were net of costs and slippages. Chance of strategy failing seems limited as majority amount of analysis is discretionary and even if i were to automate the execution , the speculation bias would be given at my discretion , say for example i consider the market a short sell - the algo will take only sell signals & stay flat during buy signal (rather than being long) , usually i have a large timeframe employed which ensures that i don't get scared by counter trend movement in smaller timeframes as by logic i would be flat during those times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for the reply, i have traded only 1 lot live but i have implemented a position sizing algorithm which i have simulated during the course of last 3 weeks, Average Sizing in simulated environment varies between 1-4 lots depending upon my equity and average size comes out to 2.5 lots per market. Unscientifically speaking 1 lot result can be easily replicated on 100 lots per market BUT off course i am not financially ready for that yet.

I do not wish to disclose the strategy on public forum but i can share it privately. The statistics i provided to you were net of costs and slippages. Chance of strategy failing seems limited as majority amount of analysis is discretionary and even if i were to automate the execution , the speculation bias would be given at my discretion , say for example i consider the market a short sell - the algo will take only sell signals & stay flat during buy signal (rather than being long) , usually i have a large timeframe employed which ensures that i don't get scared by counter trend movement in smaller timeframes as by logic i would be flat during those times.

 

Hi Crude8,

 

Glad that was helpful.

 

You remark that "majority amount of analysis is discretionary" - this will not be possible to program, so I am doubtful that testing will be an option for you.

 

If you wish to PM me details I can try and run simple tests of the strategy when I have time and if the strategy does not require extensive coding.

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello gentlemen i need your guidance in determining if trading system posses some edge.

i have been a scalper in commodities and i have incorporated a new approach which is sort of intraday positional trading and its possible to scale it up to 500 - 1000 lots based on my unscientific observations , unlike back testing or real time simulation i implemented it live on 1 lot straight away without any scientific approach , i am hoping i may get help in this forum who can conduct a thorough scientific dissection if it has some edge or its just fluke

The results are as follows - After 3 weeks

 

Number Of trades - 176

Winning trades - 86

Loosing trades - 90

Winning% - 49%

Loosing% - 51%

Average Win Amount - 1112

Average Loss Amount - 373

Average Win Trade Time - 76 Minutes

Average Loss Trade Time - 32 Minutes

Average Win/Average Loss ratio - 3.05

Profit Factor - 2.86

Expectancy - 355

 

 

Before starting i didn't used to measure any statistics and i found few online which i complied , used these formulas

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

Profit Factor = (Avg Win/Avg Loss)* Win%/(1-Win%)

 

My question is obviously there are traders who are more into statistics than myself , i need your help to see if my trading does have an edge

 

Regards

 

Based on what other people say who are considered experts, 176 trades for intraday trading is a very small sample. You might have been lucky simply speaking and the system has no edge. If you want to find out if you have en edge you will need to do some serious statistical work like for example is done in this blog for a daily system Significance of a System For Trading SPY | Price Action Lab Blog

 

Also if you can figure out your Sharpe ratio it will be very good. It must be > 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a scalper i can make upto 500 trades in a day IF conditions warrants it in Oil/Natgas.

This system is not really a system per se more of sort of like one of my side projects for intraday positional trades with bias, as a scalper i really don't care where it is(market direction) as long as i can manage to keep my avg buy cost < avg sell cost.

Like i have mentioned before i concentrate on income rather than statistics and i have never much paid attention which i am changing now off course. I will look over at the link you have provided and report back. Although i think i have been in this business long enough to know that having a accuracy above 50% doesn't actually guarantee an edge.

In India our trading platforms don't provide much statistics from our broker end apart from simple buy/sell statements

Edited by Crude8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I downloaded a excel sheet just now and filled in the values in it and i got this result

 

Avg Annual Risk-Free Rate - 7.5%

Average Annual Returns - 16.12%

Standard Deviation - 0.01

Sharpe Ratio - 6.40

 

Instead of years i entered weekly returns (3 weeks) , i can do this again tomorrow for each day return (14 days out of which 12 days green and 2 days red) , i will continue to monitor this and i will have more data from this week as well.

Okay gentlemen have a profitable week ahead, i am of to sleep now , i trade (sometimes overtrade :doh:) for 12-14 hours so i might not get a chance to post until next friday.

I am getting infrastructure in place so that i can understand from my scalping statistics where/when/why i am over trading and hopefully this method turns out to have edge rather than luck so that i can move above the scalping world and relax a little!

Edited by Crude8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hope you guys had a great week , i sure did and here i have my full 4 weeks results

 

Number Of Trades - 267

Winning Trades - 135

Loosing Trades - 132

Win% - 50.5%

Loss% - 49.5%

Avg Win/Avg Loss Ratio - 2.96

Avg Win Trade Time - 75 Minutes

Avg Loss Trade Time - 30 Minutes

Profitable Trading Days - 84.21% [16 out of 19]

Loosing Trading Days - 15.79% [3 out of 19]

Profit Factor - 3.02

Expectancy - $ 6.76

 

i may be calculating sharpe ratio wrongly but it sure is coming at 6.88, is this possible ? well this week i inquired about algorithmic trading and the cost is coming around $500 per month for the server which they are saying will be installed at the broker end, not sure about other products yet but i am keen on setting up my automated routine by September ,lets see if i am able to find an optimal fit for the wallet as i think $500 per month is pretty stiff . Whats is your opinion about the algo costs ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
well this week i inquired about algorithmic trading and the cost is coming around $500 per month for the server which they are saying will be installed at the broker end, not sure about other products yet but i am keen on setting up my automated routine by September ,lets see if i am able to find an optimal fit for the wallet as i think $500 per month is pretty stiff . Whats is your opinion about the algo costs ?

 

Depends on how dependent on speed it is - there are algo alternatives that a lot less expensive than that.

The other factor to consider is also the overall combined cost of such algos and brokerage v a simple algo and retail brokerage. Always hard to say and it is simply something you have to work out based on volume and speed of trades - plus dont forget it is something that is moving rapidly and so always worth watching every quarter as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well i suffered a draw down of about -2.89% last week & my accuracy was 38.75% last week and i was winning 3 times i was loosing but due to costs and more looser, i ended down which i covered in 1 day (Monday) for equity & 2 days (Tuesday) for commodities & this week was one of the best weeks in my live trading for this system & i have been trading it for 29 trading days and have 80% winning days & 20% loosing days :) Overall accuracy is 49% while this week 60% were winners

Have a profitable next week Cheers!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
As a scalper i can make upto 500 trades in a day IF conditions warrants it in Oil/Natgas.

This system is not really a system per se more of sort of like one of my side projects for intraday positional trades with bias, as a scalper i really don't care where it is(market direction) as long as i can manage to keep my avg buy cost < avg sell cost.

Like i have mentioned before i concentrate on income rather than statistics and i have never much paid attention which i am changing now off course. I will look over at the link you have provided and report back. Although i think i have been in this business long enough to know that having a accuracy above 50% doesn't actually guarantee an edge.

In India our trading platforms don't provide much statistics from our broker end apart from simple buy/sell statements

 

There is no edge here in averaging down etc.500 trades is for clueless traders , not skilled traders .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is no edge here in averaging down etc.500 trades is for clueless traders , not skilled traders .

 

Yup i am a clueless trader :) some of my best and rewarding trades have been done this way.

Staying at topic i have been following my system (semi-automated strategy) quite rigorously and i have come to except that what really matters is a positive expectancy over accuracy and analysis. Cheers!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
Yup i am a clueless trader :) some of my best and rewarding trades have been done this way.

Staying at topic i have been following my system (semi-automated strategy) quite rigorously and i have come to except that what really matters is a positive expectancy over accuracy and analysis. Cheers!!

 

Broker and rebates and their agents spreading the holy grail eating up spreads .:rofl::rofl:

 

2 high probability trades a day will give same result., rather than 500.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yup i am a clueless trader :) some of my best and rewarding trades have been done this way.

Staying at topic i have been following my system (semi-automated strategy) quite rigorously and i have come to except that what really matters is a positive expectancy over accuracy and analysis. Cheers!!

 

I agree with the last part........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well i am currently live on 3 strategies :-

 

Pair trade btw energy [i take 1 or 2 high probability trades in this]

Semi-Automated intra trend following [5 -8 trades per market on metals ]

Tape reading trades or scalps via dom [100-200 per market IF and only only IF crude oil is active]

 

 

3rd one the tape reading one occurs probably once in a quarter where in a day i might make 200-250 trades each in oil & natgas.

You know i have exchange membership in mcx , commissions are not to much for me :roll eyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • "without bearing any loss?"  That's a really tough question n meat.  Are you serious?! "without bearing any loss" - hm?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely risk free?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely loss free? I've seen even routine, highly reliable ( at the time ) arb's lose money try this - go to japan , borrow 10 billion yen, leave 'japan', go to _________, never make the first payment on principle or interest ... whoops- that has risks too.  try this - start your own bank... whoops that has risks too.  try this - start your own digital cash.  If you play it right, all you risk is your time on the computer and your connectivity costs   ... if you really need to avoid loss, stay away from trading - period! ... bcse you are going to have 'ANY' loss in trading. Better to embrace loss.  Both intra personally and in terms of your capital, make each loss the best, minimum/optimum, loss it can be ...     PS Stick around some helpful soul will tell n meat to get on sim and practice until ... I'll take bets right now it won't work for n meat   PS when is the next Lab meeting?  I have an agenda item to add... TL needs to order new GM mice from a different vendor
    • https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/14/8-things-you-need-to-know-but-probably-dont/ these are not really things traders should know... just sayin'
    • Benjamin A. Rogge
       
    • Date : 16th August 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.



      FX News Today

      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

      FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today

      UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

      US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

      US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

      Support and Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • I would like to know any factor before investing that would cause the fluctuation. Please help!
×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.