[suriNotes]

Double Bottom/Double Top patterns are reliable when they are confirmed and do have high reward/risk ratios. The confirmations only occur when price reverses and trades above/below [X] bar high/low or SwingHighs/Swing Lows and exhibits strong momentum with Gaps/wide-range bars etc. There may be other forms to detect Double bottoms. Failed Double Bottoms and Double Tops may be signaling stronger prior trend and could be forming multiple bottoms/tops.

One of the way to trade Double Bottom/Double Tops (Irregular DT/DBs) popularized by Trader Vic's 2B detection... 2B Tops/Bottoms also fail and 2Bs tend to be more reliable in Longer-Term charts when they are forming near other support and resistance areas.

Presented here is a case for such 2B Top/Bottom patterns for @ES Weekly and @ES Daily Charts... Just a scenario. Also, note the third chart, where @ES Monthly retracing (near) to 100% of prior Swing.

Nothing signifies it is a Double Bottom, but just a case... Every major analyst is shooting for S&P 600 soon

On Weekly charts, @ES needs to close above 782 and on Daily Charts @ES needs to close above 752 to confirm 2Bs...

Regards,
Suri

[Soultrader]

Hi Suri,

Ive attached your chart with revision to indicate the confirmation point for the short. Can you please confirm if this is correct? Thanks.

[suriNotes]

Hi James,

Thanks for your post...

Here is a little better illustration of How 2Bs' are traded from my old files (2B Buy logic provided).

ES Weekly is shown with 2B Top detection and trade-setup.

Basic idea behind 2B Top sell is:
Wait for the bar to [CLOSE] below the breakout bar. {Confirmation Bar for 2B Top}
Sell below the [LOW] - x ticks of the Confirmation Bar. {Trade}


2B detection process and trade-triggers are little elaborate (code-wise).

Regards,
Suri

Originally Posted by Soultrader »

Hi Suri,

Ive attached your chart with revision to indicate the confirmation point for the short. Can you please confirm if this is correct? Thanks.

[steve46]

Hello folks

I think the case for a bottom of any kind is rather slim at this point.

Simply put I think this market is news driven

Rather then using Daily or Weekly charts I prefer using 570 minute bars or candles. I notice price tends to respect the two EMAs fairly consistently.

Looking at the chart attached one can observe the most recent wide range bar representing activity from midnight to the open on Friday 27 Feb

I like to calculate the midpoint of "wide range bars" and use that point as a line in the sand for a possible retracement. The horizontal lines to the left of the WRB represent an area where I might be interested in a long term swing trade. Alternatively I would see a test and failure of this area as a possible signal to short the market.

I like the 2b setup. Intuitively it seems right, but in the current market I notice that price tends to consolidate for extended periods of time, before showing any conviction. It is this tendency to wiggle around in a range that causes problems for some traders. I hope to avoid this by looking for confluence of several possible signals before acting.

For tomorrow's intraday trading the previous value area high happens to be 748. The previous value area low is located at 739.50. As I write this we are wiggling around just about 720....Depending on the overnight, news and other considerations I would be looking for a test of previous VAL to tell me what the world is thinking about the economic situation we are in. After that it is all about reacting to what I see.

The "other considerations" include the status of the 10yr & 30yr bonds and the Libor.

For what its worth, a failure test at 739 would probably mean a move down to 716.50. Failure at that point would mean a move down to 693 even.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow

Steve

[steve46]

As can be seen in the attached CV chart, we stayed in a range most of the previous trading session.

Last evening, Asia took it on the chin with Korea and Japan dropping significantly (mostly on regional news and conjecture about US policies).

We bounced off of 711.25....

[zdo]

...speaking of 'old fashioned' patterns - there is a slight possibility of a island cluster reversal on the YM daily.

[suriNotes]

Almost Perfect Butterfly (Bullish) scenario for @ES

Regards,
Suri

[suriNotes]

Here is the Symmetry Analysis (Both Price and Time) for the Butterfly Pattern...

Regards,
Suri