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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  1. Posted

    the logic behind the short trade on the eurjpy is the inability of price to break the recent highs into the 131 area.......not only not breaking them, but making a series of lower highs in a structure that on the lower time frames resembles with a running variation of a contracting triangle.......such a contracting triangle implies the previous lows are going to be taken, hence the tp........SL above the 131 highs would invalidate it

    eurjpyh4.thumb.png.d105ee11f4cc3bf5a9f2ffd205e94b68.png

  5. Posted

    At 62% YTD it does not sound like you need the help of anyone here.

     

    I hope you don't expect us to ask for the name of the Twitter act you follow, I would delete it.

     

    not the 62% is important but if it can be reached on a constant basis.........one hit and run I've seen enough

  6. Posted

    And you hold for how long when you are entering on an hourly chart but looking among many timeframes a monthly chart going back multiple years?

     

    Its none of my business but I think you know what I'm getting at. Why?

     

    If you are looking at weekly/monthly support/resistance levels you must do a lot of waiting

    for price to come into range.

     

    no no, you get me wrong......like in the eurjpy live trade I posted the other day.......the analysis comes from the higher time frames (monthly, weekly) but on that 4h chart the counting shows where are we supposed to be on that time frame.........and I trade that time frame or even the 1h chart, with SL and TP based on that one.........the support and resistance areas from the higher timeframes I take them into consideration when price reaches them.......but trading the lower time frames count.........too confusing?

  10. Posted

    Hi Tradingwizzard,

     

    I abandoned the attempt after hitting a brick wall in terms of the data that I could get from TS / limits to my programming ability. I also became doubtful that I could successfully apply the model to make money, even if I were to suceed in building it.

     

    There's a lot of divergent discussion on that thread, but I only ever made a dozen or so posts - if you're interested then reading through those would make clear the process I went through and explain why I thought it worthwhile.

     

    Probably this is something I will return to at some future time . . .

     

    Regards,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    thanks for the answer

  11. Posted

    it depends very much what you want to trade.....there are traders active only on the currency markets, some only on equities, some on both, some on bonds, options, etc......so decide first

  13. Posted

    I mostly do top-down analysis........starting with the monthly chart and going down to the 1h chart........I take support and resistance levels from the higher time frames and actual entries from the lower time frames (1h and 4h)

  14. Posted

    Trade nr. 1. GOING LONG EURJPY HERE IN 128.62 WITH 126.20 SL TP 134

     

    - the logic behind is that the previous highs in the 133.79 were made with a three waves move up and such a move is characteristic for and ending diagonal structure; we also have a nice second wave in the form of a complex correction, a double combination there with a zig zag and a flat, connected with an x wave, and then we broke higher with a nice a, b, and now looking for the c wave to the upside to take the previous highs in the 133.79, hence the 134 tp target; judging by the price structure after the previous contracting triangle broke higher, I would say this is a flat and looking for the c wave of this flat to be a five waves structure, basically an impulse. It remains to be seen

    eurjpyh4.thumb.png.79faee0908e79a8d316ff649465c1290.png

  15. Posted

    Hi guys,

     

    I want to start a Live Trading thread for the currency markets and what I will do I will present my ideas, both with a chart that shows the reasoning for the trade and with some short description for the rationale behind it, providing targets, stop loss, invalidation levels, etc, all kind of things.

     

    For that I will use Elliott Waves for my analysis and not because I am some kind of expert regarding the theory but because I love to count waves and look at price structure/patterns, validation/invalidation levels, scenarios, etc.

     

    I will look at every single currency pair that I have access to and, in time, hope to build a nice thread here with your help of course.

     

    Any flows/mistakes in reasoning/counting/interpreting things are assumed so feel free to intervene whenever you consider. I hope to learn as well from your comments.

     

    I will try to keep some sort of order in my trades, like Trade nr. 1, etc, and on a monthly basis, term/semmester/year will try to see how many pips (if any) been able to make.

     

    Again, any comments/suggestions/jokes/etc are welcomed.

     

    tradingwizzard

  16. Posted

    That's the real reason postingblizzard is here.

    If 10 new guys show up this week I guarantee postingblizzard will welcome every single one of them as if he's been here for years.All in an effort to build up his post count to lend himself some "credibility" here.A couple of his shills have already been deleted so far and he's only been here a few days.

     

    This isn't a personal attack..i'm just saying out loud what others are thinking.

     

    Hope my comments don't spoil your reading pleasure of any future blizzard posts..

     

    none taken, I was being honest

  17. Posted

    Yup i am a clueless trader :) some of my best and rewarding trades have been done this way.

    Staying at topic i have been following my system (semi-automated strategy) quite rigorously and i have come to except that what really matters is a positive expectancy over accuracy and analysis. Cheers!!

     

    I agree with the last part........

  18. Posted

    Dear tradinglizard

     

    if lizards can help each other then traders can too. we can share and learn..most do not like what i share...it is strange as i only attempt to predict and post beforehand trades. I also make humorous remarks that i guess they don't like too well...when my predictions are on target they seem to get meaner with me.....wonder why? .....one recently said i have diarrhea of the keyboards but i pay no attention to him as he lives in Boca Raton which translated means "rats mouth" but in slang the word raton means "cowardly thief" so basically he lives in the town called "mouth of cowardly thieves". so, i have many places to go and visit and many rivers to fish in but i will not be, any time soon, visiting this town that literally means "mouth of the cowardly thieves". and the damage to my ego is greatly alleviated just to know where this poster lives....:rofl: :rofl:

     

    do you expect me to answer to this? :crap:

  19. Posted

    Hi Mircea,

    I see you are from Romania, so you wont understand that our comments are just about making fun at one another .And at the same time perhaps adding to our knowledge.

    There is no problem between Patuca and I. :cool:

    But Patuca has lots of problems with the other members..... hes a tough old goat so I dont think he is too concerned :roll eyes:

    I am his last friend :rofl::rofl::rofl:

    kind regards

    bobc

    PS Are you a boy or a girl?

     

    well, if I'm from Romania it doesn't mean I don't understand ..........and if you read the post, it was saying "if any" :)

  20. Posted

    What I find strange is that you bought options at all if as you say you have very limited experience.

     

    Option profitability is heavily skewed towards those who write and sell them than those who buy them. Not always. If you get the right price and what you want to happen happens with time left on them options can pay off big. But if everything doesn't go right it is throwing good money after bad.

     

    exactly my point at the begining of the thread.......too much knowledge for a beginner......just saying

  21. Posted

    So exactly how many times does it need to break 1.28xx before you throw in the towel?

     

    not throwing anything........contracting triangle on the higher time frames (weekly and monthly)......it can go as low as 1.2460 area (but not this trip, more likely 1.3100 first) and then a sharp rebound........will post some charts later in the week, I plan to start a thread

  22. Posted

    Hi Nourozi,

     

    Although it's simple to formulate, I am afraid that your question is one of the most difficult that you could ask, as it concerns market microstructure. The first thing that you need to know is whether all these contracts trade with FIFO order books . . .

     

    If you can be bothered to pursue this topic, take a look at my posts in the thread HERE, in which I began to build a model for estimating position in queue (I failed!).

     

    Regards,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    *** HFTs sitting at limit is not quite the issue with the ES - how the depth of book is balanced by orders that cross the spread for each of these markets is the question. You basically want a ratio of DEPTH-at-BID/ASK:EXECUTED-VOLUME as your basis of comparisson, I think . . .

     

    you failed meaning you are stuck or giving up?

  24. Posted

    Eur/usd just came down to major support level of 1.2747. Looks like it has followed gbp/usd which came down due to weaker than expected data. Retracement is expected from this point.

    usd/jpy is still range-bound. Longterm trend remains bullish and breakout is expected to occur in favor of bulls. Resistance is around 102.53.

     

    still bouncing potential on eur/usd

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