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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  3. Posted

    When it comes to trading and processing trading information , we can not process information without biases , stress and emotions induced responses. Only psychologists who understand how we behave under stress and our responses under stress and emotions will understand this in detail.

     

    When we process trading information , our information processing is contaminated , we are also trading information on uncertainty .Not only is our information processing contaminated , we are adding fuel to fire with this contamination , we are adding our biases ,fears,greed ,ego ,emotions and cognitive biases to the information processing.

     

    No matter how good a system , if 10 different traders are given to use the same system , the 10 traders will have different results.In the case of processing trading information , the results show 95 % of traders lose.

     

    speaking of 95% of the traders that lose.......I heard that many times as it is being written all over the place......is it true?........

  4. Posted

    I think one of the problems I have with forums is that the people who post say things that ARE partially true....and unfortunately the rest of the comment is so far from the truth that taken as a whole there is very little value for the person who may have asked the original question...

     

    Trading is one thing.....and there ARE professionals, and amateurs who trade, some better than others, possessed of more or less talent, discipline focus motivation.....to intraday trade the S&P futures is very difficult....however it can be done....and it can be taught...yes it is difficult to find the right combination of teacher and system....but there are some out there...

     

    I assume an adult knows that they should learn financial management skills.....learning how to invest in different time frames and different asset classes is called "diversification"....if a person isn't financially literate, they should address that deficit and learn to manage money...

     

    If we are talking about trading (that's what this thread is about) THAT is a different subject altogether...and I tend to focus on the job at hand....

     

    I had a similar conversation with person wanting to get into the class today....they wanted to know whether I was oriented to the intraday or longer time frame trade....I told them that success in this business is about recognizing opportunity on several time frames and learning to adopt the correct approach for each (opportunity)....what matters is learning to "recognize" opportunity....that comes first....then learning how to capitalize on it...is logically the second step....

     

    agree........and this second step is the tricky one

  5. Posted

    then they are reliable if they are all wrong. :haha:

     

    I remember one time, long ago, one guy from Saxo Bank.....he was publishing reports with a trade recommendation.....it was like the benchmark for going into the opposite direction......amazing

  6. Posted

    1.2750... I dun see corrective moves going this much down. Even though usd data came better than expected but it still remained above 1.3000. I am expecting usd to weaken more against counterparts.

     

    not this trip...........looking to consolidate around the current levels and to break below 1.2750 until September..........most likely this month, if not, first half of August...........after September to look for a break higher..........for good this time, much higher

  7. Posted

    Technical analysis of EUR/AUD dated 12.07.2013

     

    EUR/AUD since 03.04.2013 was in strong and consistent uptrend with small price reformations. Buyers during this uptrend were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.44025, And with reaching to the resistance levels made of 2 top prices ( in 2011) have tested these levels and were not able to reach to higher levels so the price has stopped from more ascending. As it is obvious in the picture below, between the bottom price of 1.16020 and top price of 1.44025 , there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point , there is a warning for stopping of uptrend and changing price direction.

     

     

    According to the type of formed candles like Hanging Man and Engulfing candlestick patterns in green color area warns about Vulnerability of uptrend and formation of a top price and decreasing of the price. Stoch indicator in weekly time frame is in saturation buy area and with the next cycle warns about the potential of changing price direction during the next weeks. Currently the first warning for decreasing of price is breaking of the supportive level of 1.42299. Generally until the D point in weekly time frame is preserved, there is a potential for price reformation and descending.

     

    euraudweekly.jpg

     

    2013.07.12

    FxGlory

     

    you labeled it as ABCD and I am looking at a probable five waves up to end with the new highs.........or mayber you are using Gartley for that?

  8. Posted

    I have found currency outlook report by Scotia bank. It very simple i precise forecast for major pairs next few years.

     

    ]http://www.scotiafx.com/Chart_Feed/fxout.pdf[/url]

     

    I'm sure that every big bank has similar report, but I was unable to find it on their pages.

     

    So if you have links on similar reports by other banks, please put it here so everyone that is interested in this type of report can find it on one place.

     

    agree with that ....only thing is......are they reliable? .........if you check the latest Societe Generale reports they were all wrong :crap:

  10. Posted

    hi there......you are talking about a 10% on a monthly basis and the problem is not the return but what you should do for that return........firstly, to reach that on a constant basis is a problem trading all financial products because let's say in one month you are having only 7% and still 5 trading days in the week.......what do you do to get the other 3 %? most likely overleverage, and this is the recipe for failure.......second, while trading can be tought, human nature plays tricks with us all the time and you are most likely to have the most difficulties with this part, like any other trader........last but not least, try to base your trading on your own system......in this way you will have more trust in it.......good luck anyways

  13. Posted

    Despite minutes from the Fed's June meeting showing half of its policymakers think its monthly $85B stimulus program should be cut by the end of 2013, Bernanke's message was enough to snap markets back into buying mode.

     

    Nonetheless, Bernanke's comments were taken by the markets as much more dovish so I suspect it be good to trade puts especially on the DAX and the FTSE100.

     

    We are still in a bit of a sweet spot for equity markets. The US economy is recovering steadily and this is an encouraging sign for equity markets with future earnings expected to be good, but it is not hot enough to cause the Fed to scale back the stimulus...

     

    believe it or not, Hilsenrath coming out yesterday saying Fed message in FOMC was actually hawkis, not dovish.....:helloooo:

  14. Posted

    Here is a view of the errors and trades I took today.

     

    After a big drop I believe I my bias was to catch the turn. The truth hurts.:crap:

     

    Humbled

     

    funny enough, you stoped trading exactly when that triangle broke to the downside.....measured move or the thrust of it should have been the target.......keep trying

  16. Posted

    Gbp/usd is strongly bullish after 10-july fundamentals. It will most probably reach near resistance level of 1.5300. There are no major fundamentals tomorrow so I am not expecting any major retracement.

     

    I wouldn't call it stronglly bullish though

  17. Posted

    At the moment I have 14 years data so my research is based on that.

     

    There are very few days when eur/usd moves as much as it moved on 10-july. Around 440 pip movement is rarely seen in eur/usd. But it is still unable to make in top 10 most-volatile-days list if we check past 14 year history.

    An interesting fact is that top 10 most volatile days, in past 14 years, are in 2008. Nine of these 10 are in last three months of 2008. In to 50 most volatile days list, in past 14 years, 30 are in 2008.

     

    Yesterday was 11th most volatile day in past 14 years.

     

    FOMC meeting minutes and then Bernarke's speech caused this volatility in Eur/usd. Technically eur/usd found good support near 27-march low of 1.2752. At the moment, eur/usd has consolidated around 1.3100. For day traders, corrective moves are probable but trend is unclear so I will prefer to stay on hold.

     

    Usd also lost to Jpy but not as much as it lost to Eur. Current fall can be a temporary fall. Hourly chart is giving range-bound indications.

     

    I am turning bearish on the eurusd now, medium term.....expecting the 1.2750 area to break now and price to go towards 1.25/1.26........providing 1.34 area holds, I will look for reversal patterns

  18. Posted

    What I posted over on Forex F...... on July 7th:

     

    "Here is the daily fib clusters I see above the current zone: 1295-1304 most probable for a reversal, 1323-1334 and 1363-1372".

     

    Have to see if it holds. Thinking it won't and will be ready to pounce if yesterday's (Thurs) low is taken out. Only thing is Fridays doesn't usually have a wide range so might have to wait till next week.

     

    what platform is that?

  21. Posted

    Options... I agree because the OP is very young and he mine as well try to grow his capital rapidly. From what I can tell so far, options provide the best reward for the amount of capital you have to risk. (Low capital = still potential for large rewards)

     

    hmm...easy said then done......it's not that simple

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