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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard

  1. Posted

    Fat lady sang June 19th. Only thing to hear tomorrow is whether we will have triple bottom with April and May lows or if 1.28xx, 1.27xx, 1.26xx are coming soon.

     

    triple bottoms rarely hold........but surprises we're seen many times.....not a place to short here IMO

  4. Posted

    and now the ECB offering guidance about the extended period of time to keep interest rates low........however, we are trading here a CURRENCY PAIR and not a single currency, so more important will be tomorrow's nfp number IMO

  11. Posted

    Don't get me wrong,i'm a highly technical trader and price structure and levels are all important for me.

    I just prefer to use things that are as less subjective as possible.Trendlines are drawn differently by different traders looking at exactly the same chart.You also need,in any case,several data points before they can be drawn.So I prefer horizontal lines only.

    You might say fine but where do you draw those from?You can't claim horizontal lines are the holy grail.All I can say without sidetracking this thread is for me they are less problematical and only require single data points.They also do not require any future adjustment.

    I'm not a fan of traditional patterns.But I guess at least with,say a H&S,you can predict the expected price level for the right shoulder.That's a more realistic prediction on a more frequent basis than a 20% drop based on subjectively drawn trendlines completely contrary to current market context.

     

    you said you can predict the expected level for the right shoulder......well, IF it is a H&S,......more likely you can predict the measured move, but IF you have the right neckline....and this is not horizontal all the time....but this is off topic anyways

  15. Posted

    I am always looking for patterns......seem to be lost without them, and probably the reasoning is that I am probably more of a technical trader than a fundamental one....

     

    for example with the Fed....I don't doubt the power of the Fed, or the ECB, or whatever, but from my point of view price cannot fall/rise without breaking some levels on the smaller time frames....it is impossible to fly and skip them....so unless levels are broken, then the turn won't happening.....it's like looking at the downside in an upward trend without the trend line to be broken....just saying

  18. Posted

    usdjpy might be in a contracting triangle as the move from the 103.70 area to the 94 area seems a three waves move that ended with a contracting triangle.........when such a triangle acts as a reversal pattern, it is usually (but not always) part of a triangle..........IMO the highs in the 103.70 area are only the end of a possible third wave to the upside (Elliott waves)

  19. Posted

    I visited the website and took a closer look at the program and my short conclusion is:

    - vague information about what is actually going to happen there (except for the price, which is clearly stated) - this would be a minus IMO;

    - but if you check the calendar with the schedule (which is updated at the end of each month) it might be interpreted that there are some people taking his courses.....

     

    anyways, it is the first time I hear about this and if you or someone else have some more insights I would love to know

     

    thanks

  23. Posted

    thank you for your post.........when trading, patterns should definitely be taken into consideration......for example when dealing with contracting triangles (as they are the most common way of consolidation), they might be reversal or continuation patterns.....so tricky but once broken you have the direction.

     

    thanks again

  25. Posted

    easy to say then done.........sometimes you wait for your risk reward to hit 1:3 and not exiting the trade because you wait for the last pip...........however, the last pip is in most cases the most expensive one....so pro's and con's on this approach

     

    anyways, thank you for your post

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