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Everything posted by wrbtrader

  1. https://www.google.ca/#q=How+to+draw+trendlines Next, to get specific help...you need to post lots of charts here of whatever price action you're learning/trading with trendlines that represent what you learned from the above link. You can then ask further questions about what you've learn after you've posted charts of the price action you've been learning/trading. Hopefully, someone can then respond and answer your question after you've done some self study from your Google research.
  2. In trading terms, you can't back test for psychological problems that impacts trading results. Yet, you can keep a daily log and maintain statistics of those things you've mentioned. Also, I would assume that if someone gets professional help via a "psychologist" to improve their ability to manage stressful situations in life...it should be able to be transferable into trading or into any other job. By the way, there are psychologist out there that specifically help those that work in the financial markets. Think about this very carefully, more people today in life (I'm not talking about trading) are under extreme stress in their personal life, relationships, jobs, school and such. Worst, more folks today are not able to properly manage such psychologically. In fact, more jobs today than ever will pay for psychologist, pay leave of absence due to burn-out and some even have a staff psychologist on site at the work place. Further, more jobs today are using employment psychological testing to determine if someone is suitable for the job. I can't remember the occupational agency but its estimated that companies that use psychological testing save millions in comparison to those that don't. How many traders keep daily statistics of their psychological performance while trading ? Its a lot less (I'm guessing < 1%) than those that keep daily statistics of their wins/losses.
  3. Profitable trading is not all about trade signals. Unfortunately, too many traders misuse back testing beyond what its primary purpose...to only help design a trade method. Simply, traders forget that a trade method is just one chapter in the book called "trading plan". That's why its so common to see so many trade journals by traders that say they are confused or lost for words because they had positive trade results in back testing but can not understand why they are losing money in real money trading. Why ? Traders can not incorporate things like discipline problems, changes in trading schedule, unexpected changes in market conditions and other things into back testing. In fact, a trader can only discover "some" trading problems when one moves into simulation trading. It's those "some" trading problems that will prompt naive traders into returning back to the back testing phase to tweak (fix) their trade method when the problem has nothing to do with their trade method that originally had positive trading results. The problem is the trader in situations as described above and that's why trade methods is just one chapter in the book called trading plan. Therefore, back testing is useful for the sole purpose designing a trade method and shouldn't be used to compensate beyond that because everything else (e.g. discipline) involved in profitable trading can not be incorporated into back testing.
  4. More trader forums 100% dedicated to forex have sprung up in the past 5 years. Also, forex is heavily discussed on other social media (e.g. twitter, stocktwits). In fact, a few of the forex traders I knew here at Traderslaboratory that are no longer active members here, they're very active on twitter and stocktwits. Simply, I'm sure most folks have navigated to other social media sources that's more dedicated to forex in comparison to traditional forums that tries to cover all markets at one location (stocks, forex, futures, options).
  5. First of all, the markets will be here tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. Simply, do not rush into any decisions just because the markets open soon and you're confused about what to do. In fact, the best decision you will make is to "stay on the sidelines" and do nothing when you don't know what to do. You give no indication about what you're interested in and that may because you really don't know anything. Therefore, maybe you should just talk about the markets you're interested in trading or investing and maybe someone will post some links to something that may be useful for whatever it is you're interested in doing. For example, if you're looking for investment advice or long term trading advice... Barron's Top Financial Advisors - 2012 Ranking of Best Financial Advisors - Barrons.com Another example, if you're looking for trading advice... Collective2 - Find the best trading strategy There are many other sources like the above if you know how to use Google and the above are just quick suggestions off the top of my head. Thus, I don't know if they are the best sources for looking for sources where someone tells you when to specifically buy and sell something.
  6. I'm primarily a full-time futures day trader that works from 9am to 5pm est. I do not stare at the charts all day because charts are just part of my trading plan. I spend a lot of time reading, listening to key market events from around the world via the help of social media to get my "market context" so that I can better understand the price action on my charts. In my typical 8 hour work day, I'm probably trading (entering/exiting trades) about 1 1/2 hours per trading day, 1 hour analyzing charts while not in a trade, 3 1/2 hours gathering market context and about 2 hours doing personal stuff not related to trading (e.g. exercise, eating lunch, resting). Don't misunderstand the above, that's me today. In comparison, 20 years ago, I didn't care about market context although I was aware that it was a big deal for a relative that was a floor trader at that time. Also, I didn't take time-outs from trading, had very little social life and devoted myself to studying charts as a newbie trader. Then again, when you're young...it didn't seem like a big deal to be staring at charts all day looking for trades or investments with a tunnel vision. For me, social media makes trading a lot easier and its basically free.
  7. Trading since early 80's mainly futures. Full-time since late 80's. Yet, didn't really consider it a job until early 90's after some problems with the IRS.
  8. Forex book authors or forex mentors are not "active traders" via the exact same reason that most traders are not active traders. Simply, most traders "inactivity" has nothing to do if they write books or not (seriously). I remember a long time ago that most book writers were managers at some firm, market analysts on TV, university professor or someone that worked on wall street. Yet, somewhere along the time line during the late 90s (dot com explosion), anybody (secondary professionals) that had a trading account started writing online articles, writing educational forum message posts and then that slowly progressed into some of these secondary professionals getting into the book writing or mentoring. Therefore, the real question is this... Would you trust the advice of anyone beyond you're own advice to yourself about trading ? If your answer is that you wouldn't trust anyone else, I hope you're a profitable trader (seriously). By the way, here's an example of someone that meets your "trading inactivity". I just finish reading a book titled "Lending Stability to Europe's Emerging Market Economies" bu Dr. Holger Schmieding. He's well known in the Forex arena and he analysis are mostly good. Would I trust his trading advice even though he doesn't trade anymore and primarily now only does economic analysis and write books.? Answer: I don't know. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holger_Schmieding Note: He's now the Chief Economist for Berenberg Bank in Italy
  9. I haven't seen a message post in this thread where someone suggested TL business not allow members to discuss anything or not allow members to question vendors unless it has been deleted before I was able to read it. In contrast, I've seen posts against vendors being able to discuss, market, advertise, mention (e.g. my clients) or defend their services without paying a fee.
  10. Considering that this discussion forum called TradersLaboratory is a business... No transparency is lost by telling vendors that if/when they discuss their services they must only do such in the designated "commercial section" and those that want to question the vendors must also do such in the "commercial section". Vendors that pay a fee are allowed to discuss, market their services outside the "commercial section" and anyone that wants to question those vendors that are paying to advertise here...they are still able to do such. Simply, everybody are still able to discuss but those that advertise on the backs of TL members must pay a fee for their discussions. Thus, if someone wants to criticize or question a vendor outside the "commercial section" and then a vendor replies or defends his/her service...the vendor must pay a fee to do such or learn how to ignore especially when the conversation is a personal attack. Most of these "heated" discussions occurs when the vendor doesn't have the ability to ignore and intentionally chooses to argue along with slinging their own mud via the facade of defending themselves. This isn't rocket science...its an easy fix and a win situation for TL management because this is a business to them and I'm assuming they do want advertising dollars from those that want to market themselves here at Traderslaboratory on the backs of its members.
  11. Is there a reason why you've only listed about 10% of the most commonly used Japanese Candlestick patterns ?
  12. Easy fix... 1) Close the thread (do not delete so that others will better understand the history). 2) Give all those involved a warning via private message that if such continues in future threads...they will see their accounts temporarily disable for a month. 3) After the accounts have been enable and if they continue with the eyesore debates...ban them permanently. This sends a loud an clear message to others that behave the same. 4) TL should create a "commercial section" similar to other trader forums. Designated vendors are only allowed to post in the commercial section if/when mentioning any aspects of their services. 5) Any designated vendor at TL that discusses their services outside of the "commercial section"...they should pay a advertising fee if services are discussed in the public area even when solicited by another member. Simply, any solicitation by another member must be replied to via private message only by the vendor. 6) Refusal to pay the advertising fee after discussing/marketing their services outside the designated "commercial section"...permanent ban. End of Story.
  13. Hi, I'm not sure why you would have difficulty in moderating "long time TL members". If someone steps out of line and breaks some sort'uv rule, they should be warn or moderated regardless to their join date. Anyways, I took a read of the first 6 pages and I gather the following facts: 1) Predictor makes "after the fact" vague commentaries about his actual trades but he does make real-time bias price action direction analysis. 2) Very little mentioning of his software or services. 3) steve46 shows up on Dec 6th 2012 and makes the following commentary...Reading these posts one can't help but develop an appreciation for the British term "Muppet". 4) Predictor responds with his own personal attack on the same date. In my opinion, he obvious didn't like steve46 showing up in his thread and that is where his first complaint should have been sent to you. Did Predictor complained to you at that time at that time or soon after ??? Had he done so and had you closely monitor the thread at that time, I'm convinced the thread would not have become an eyesore that it is today. 5) Predictor makes his first reference to the term "trolls" on Dec 7th 2012 without mentioning any specific names but its obvious aimed at steve46. Yet, thread is basically a conversation between Predictor and rtg. 6) Tams shows up on Dec 11th 2012 and drops in the LOL! commentary in reference to Predictor commentary about trading trend/momentum/counter trend. Predictor then responds to Tams via saying "I have tams on perma ignore". If that's true, why did he respond to Tams commentary 7) steve46 returns on Dec 12th 2012 and is still critical of Predictor price action analysis along with steve46 mentioning his own trade method. Later he then saids "now back to the Predictor's comedy act. 8) Predictor responds later and makes the "I have steve46 on perma ignore". If that's true, why has he been responding to steve46 commentaries after that point. After the above, thread goes down hill fast without any moderator intervention. I suspect Predictor didn't want to use the complaint button which is why TL management didn't realize there was a problem until it was too late. By page 16th, its basically steve46 and Tams showing up with debates, arguments towards Predictor (there's obvious some history here in prior threads that too went unmoderated). The question is were they trolling and did Predictor complained to TL management at this time. If he did not complained at that time by page 16th...he allowed the thread to become what it is today...an eyesore. Judgment - Everybody is guilty and they should all be moderated even though I'm not exactly sure what "moderated" means to TL management. ::missy:
  14. Top traders don't worry about if they are the best traders and they do not worry about the profit levels of other traders. Also, top traders are not perfect traders. With that said, as someone noted, you can join a trading competition but the results will not tell you if you're the top trader or perfect trader because every trader in the world do not enter the same trading competition...most top traders do not enter competitions. Yet, some competitions (e.g. dukascopy) can get you a job interview at a big trading firm if you consistently perform well in the competitions.
  15. Market context is just part of the equation. You can't trade successfully on market context alone. Thus, you still need "something" to tell you its time to enter the trade and its time to exit the trade...market context does not do that. Therefore, Japanese Candlestick patterns or any other pattern do have value as entry/exit signals. Yet, alone without market context and without a complete trading plan...its not reliable. Also, there are lots of researchers, online articles, several books and several websites WITH statistical results. Thus, to say they NEVER come with statistical results is absolutely not true (an illusion) considering a quick google search brings up the information (e.g. stats by Thomas Bulkowski). Regardless, if anybody is wondering if Japanese Candlestick patterns can be traded alone profitably without market context, without a decent trading plan...the answer has been and will always be a big NO and the statistic results varies from one person to the next person (reliable and not reliable) depending upon each person's personal trading plan. Yet, with discipline, money management, positions size management, proper trade management and other key variables...Japanese Candlestick patterns is a great tool and reliable. My point, there are so many variables that traders have...its the trader responsibility to figure out a good trading plan to put all these pieces together so that they work well together as a team (trading plan) and Japanese Candlestick patterns are just one piece of the puzzle if you choose to use them. With that said, anybody that has a good recognition of these patterns can spot them...that much is true. Yet, it has already been proven here at TL alone by several so called "top programmers", naysayers and even supporters of candlestick patterns can not even properly identify many patterns. Anyways, once someone truly learns how to identify or code these patterns...doesn't imply they know how to properly trade them. Learning how to trade is the trader's responsibility...not the responsibility of the pattern.
  16. Trading via Japanese Candlestick analysis or patterns without market context is poor trading and will result in poor results (not reliable). Simply, you should already understand the price action and understand the direction of the price action prior to the appearance of any candlestick pattern. My point, traders that have good results via Japanese Candlestick patterns, that's a trader that is doing a lot more than just Japanese Candlestick analysis. Thus, Japanese Candlestick analysis is not the only thing that the trader is doing and is trader with a complete trading plan.
  17. Highly recommend you go see a tax accountant and lawyer that deals with small business owners instead of getting advice from anonymous folks about serious issues like this. Also, join your local small business owner association and talk to other members. In addition, go see a "divorce lawyer" if your married that deals with small business owners that get divorce...issues involving assets just in case divorce occurs in the future.
  18. Sharing profitable systems is only a problem if they are automated and trading illiquid markets. These types of systems can possibly loose their edge if "every one" applied it to the same illiquid markets at the exact same time, In contrast, sharing profitable strategies that are not automated as in something that has a discretionary element...it's impossible for every trader on this planet or most traders on this planet to be using the same strategy, same trading instrument, trading at the same time and many other variables that's impossible to occur the same for every trader. These types of strategies will not lose their edge. Some will be profitable and some will not due to every trader. There are just too many variables that impact automated systems and discretionary traders from one trader to the next trader (e.g. trading platforms, internet connections, commissions, liquidity and so on). Simply, we will never be the same in how we apply a system or strategy.
  19. The author intent, I believe, was to provide a dictionary explanation of what the complex candlestick pattern looks like. Thus, I don't think he intended to provide any in-depth information about the use of complex candlestick patterns in combo with "trading gaps" price action and that could be why he doesn't respond to my questions. Therefore, I'll ask you the same question, can you share your 7 years of work involving complex candlestick patterns in combo with trading gap price actions. I know Chang publish some statistical work involving candlestick patterns and trading gap price actions...his results show them working. He's just one of many that have publish academic articles that show "some" candlestick patterns working in specific types of price actions while others published just as many academic articles showing it does not work in other types of price actions. As for Chang, if I remember correctly, I believe Chang's work involved Taiwan futures (maybe it was Japanese futures) via about 10 years of data. Yet, the author Richard Cox saids its reliable and shows generic charts. Thus, he doesn't mention any specific trading instruments. Just the same, wciszak saids its not reliable and refused to answer my questions (where's his stats via what trading instruments). Thus, I'm asking you the same questions... Where's your stats ? What trading instruments were tested ? Did you test these complex candlestick patterns in trading gap price actions that are discussed by the author Richard Cox or do you know anyone (please name the person) that has tested these patterns in trading gap price actions ? Surely someone can cough up some details (Richard Cox, wciszak or sidra) just as those that have published their own personal proof that it works / doesn't work. So many different variables (e.g. trading instruments, trade management after entry, time frames, types of price actions, market context of the duration tested and so on)...everybody has different results as expected. :rofl:
  20. see part 1...I provided well known names (not direct links) of sources that have done statistical information. Yet, I don't know if RichardCox has done his own personal statistical analysis or if he has used the results of others that have done the work to form his own opinion about Japanese Candlestick patterns without knowing exactly the type of trade management and other variables (see below) that was being used. Basically, from what I've seen, the statistical results I've seen dozens of statistical sources and they are all over the map from reliable to not reliable. Simply, it comes down to the user and how its being applied (e.g. other variables like trading instrument, time frame, trade management, market context, trading plan and so on).
  21. Hi RichardCox, It would be much better if you included real chart examples of Gap Price Actions in combo with the complex Japanese Candlestick patterns you're discussing to go along with those generic chart images. So far, you've basically only provided a dictionary definition as seen in most candlestick books without any trade management information... Along with mentioning Gap Price Actions without defining any particular types of gaps. Simply, without real chart examples and the typical book like dictionary explanations...where's the beef ?. Also, I'm a little confused about why you refer to these particular Japanese Candlestick patterns as complex. Is it because of the number of intervals involved with the pattern or if its because of the gap price action in combo with the candlestick pattern ??? Happy holidays all !!!
  22. Hi, Here's a brief summary of my personal trading observations and trading experiences that may be different to other traders about Japanese Candlestick patterns or any other technical analysis price action pattern. I've never met a profitable trader that only uses Japanese Candlestick Analysis and nothing else. Thus, I've been trading long enough to know the importance of other variables in a profitable trader's trading plan (e.g. money management, position size management, properly capitalize, trade experience, discipline, trade management, proper trade environment, trade method and so on)...all of which do have impact on a trader's trading results. Simply, its the trader and all the variables working together as a trading plan that determines if one will be a profitable trader or not...not the trade method all by itself. Thus, on any given trading day, one of those variables or in combo with another variable will be the deciding factor for profits or losses. That's why I don't believe in testing just one ingredient on a pizza to determine if the entire pizza is good or not when there's obvious other ingredients on that pizza that includes the bread dough and sauce. Thus, when someone says TA doesn't work or Japanese Candlesticks doesn't work when there's documented proof that "some" does work...it implies that trader has not yet figure out how to make it work while others have. In other words, its not all about the entry signal, not all about the trade management...it's not one or the other. Its about all the variables working together as a team in one's trading plan. That's the primary reason why so many traders using the same trade methods while trading the same trading instruments will have different trade results...essence of my formula 1 racing analogy. Once again, I've never met a profitable trader that uses Japanese Candlestick patterns and nothing else (see variables mentioned above). In contrast, I have met profitable traders that uses Japanese Candlestick patterns in their trading plan. There's more to profitable trading than just trade signals. Traders and academia that fail to understand such...good luck with that.
  23. Hi, The information you gave me didn't come close to what I asked about. Regardless, the fact is that there's a commonality between well documented academia that have tested candlestick patterns and published their results (I did give you two particular name for you to research). They did find "some" Japanese Candlestick patterns to specifically to being profitable. In contrast, other academia have found no evidence to these patterns to being profitable. Therefore, I decided to do my own investigation into why such a contrast in these published results that show in-depth statistical data. Answer - All using different trade management rules except for a few that intended on trying to re-duplicate someone's published results. By the way, I did get a chuckle out of your drug analogy but maybe because my academic background is microbiology, immunology and someone that dropped out of medical school. Here's my analogy via a race car (e.g. formula 1). You put two drivers in the exact same designed race car, drivers that weigh the exact same and they start the race at the exact same time... Why is it that most of the races they don't finish in a tie ? Why is it that one will crash and the other will not ? Why will one consistently finish in the top performers of the races and the other finish in the bottom performers in the same races ? The answer, one of the drivers is just better at driving the race car and most likely has better resources in managing that race car during any given race. That's why some traders are profitable at using Japanese Candlestick patterns and others still can't figure out the answer to profitability. Simply, same reason why many publish results by the academia show some patterns to being profitable and same reason why some in the academia show the same patterns to being "not" profitable...all that stuff that occurs after the race has started. There's no right or wrong. You're either profitable or not.
  24. There already exist publish results showing some Japanese Candlestick patterns "do" work (profitable) and other publish results showing some Japanese Candlestick patterns "do not" work (losers). Please don't ask me to post the links to the academia results when its already been done in other past discussions about Japanese Candlestick patterns here and other forums. Yet, off the top of my head, you can review the ongoing (current) testing results by Thomas Bulkowski or past academia work by Chang. Google search should point you in the right direction. My point, I've seen at least 20 different academia research articles or abstract from both sides of the camp that some patterns are profitable and some patterns are not profitable. Yet, not surprisingly, when I contacted many about the specific trade management rules they used "after" the pattern signal...they all used different rules. Thus, that's why they have different results (no brainer). :doh: Therefore, due to the fact that you implied you've test "all patterns" via saying you have not found a single pattern...can you provide the following information: 1) Specific trading instruments (e.g. Forex EurUsd) and historical data time period (e.g. years 2000 - 2010) 2) Specific time frames tested Japanese Candlestick pattern tested (e.g. weekly, daily and 1 hour chart) 3) Specific trade management rules "after" entry (e.g. initial stop/loss, trail stop management, profit targets) 4) Test procedure...codes or manual (e.g. Tradestation) I'm also curious if you've tested Japanese Candlestick patterns in conjunction with Gaps as the author RichardCox stated are more reliable even though he has not discussed any specific trade method of using Japanese Candlestick patterns with Trading Gaps. Therefore, have you tested Japanese Candlestick patterns with Gaps and can you post the specific details of your results via the requested above information. ???
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