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brownsfan019

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by brownsfan019

  1. Posted

    Here's what TA can work in futures on an intraday basis - TA is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people 'seeing' the TA setup, the more likely it is to work.

     

    For example, in one of the threads here, someone posted a 'pinochio' bar chart setup. I never heard of it. But, in candles that was simply a gravestone doji. So, if candle traders are shorting the doji and bar chart guys are shorting the pinochio, price may travel lower simply b/c of the amount of shorts entering the market. And since each of us may enter at different intervals, it's simply a matter of if there are enough guys trading the doji/pinochio setup to drive it lower.

     

    So, it can be argued that the TA was in fact what pushed the price lower to the point where the tape readers got interested as well. I really believe it's just a matter of how many things line up at/around the same time on the majority of traders charts. That's all. If you have a trade that failed, all that says was that the majority of traders out there did not see what you did. Trades that work are simply telling you that the majority of traders 'agreed' with you, but not necessarily b/c of the exact same reasons. I don't think that discounts TA at all. I mean, I am successful trading with candles and moving averages, so I could argue that if you are tape reading and not making serious money, tape reading is lagging. My point being that the setups themselves - whether tape reading or TA or flipping a coin - is simply one part of the overall picture of why your trades win or lose.

  2. Posted

    Well, I do not focus entries intentionally. Everyone is focused on entries and live exits to his\her intuition, emotions etc. It is a rare situation when a non-professional (the sevice adresses mostly them) trader has a precise exit strategy and follows it. Exit is much more important than entry since it is exit that creates profit or loss.

     

    By my research, trailing stop shows positive result even if you enter RANDOMLY. Statistically, of course. I would say that entries do not play that big role, that exits do.

     

    Al - perhaps the theory sounds great of entries being irrelevant, but the practical use of that is marginal at best. Don't take my word for it, test it and trade it live and let us know how it goes.

  3. Posted

    If this is the only game in town (REIT) than it may just do that. It's only vehicle to hedge housing price losses. So it's possible during the price declines in housing markets, we may see more volume and vice versa for period of appreciation for homes?

     

    Tor - I appreciate your theory.

     

    However, the MSCI is one of (if not the only) international based futures contract (http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/overview_EFE16575.html). The S&P Asia 50 is a very unique product as well that is still struggling for interest (http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/overview_PA16059.html).

     

    Just providing something to think about. At one time, I used to think the same thing - a new and 'different' contract is just what the market needs and more importantly, what I need... It was never about the products.

  4. Posted

    James - I'd like to suggest an area where members can post feedback on brokers, trading software, books, education co's, etc. Instead of people posting in threads about rates or what they think of XYZ, if there was a compilation of reviews from users readily available, that may assist those new to the site and those looking for feedback.

     

    I would imagine the broker area would be of great interest since we all know that futures rates are highly negotiable.

  5. Posted

    My suggestion (sorry James) - get Firefox and then download AdBlocker. You can then block the flash ads and other ads throughout the site. I was having the same problem and posted in a different thread and until I was using Firefox and adblocker, I was having lag issues as well.

     

    I am on cable. Wish it was fiber, but that's a long way away before it's throughout the US! :mad:

  6. Posted

    Collective2 is an interesting website. I ran a couple test systems there and it's a great exercise if you really want to see how you perform in real time. The only issue I had was that if you need to execute orders quickly, there was a serious lag at times b/c it is a web based order entry system.

     

    I would suggest taking a look if you want to test some ideas out and/or make a few extra bucks from people subscribing.

  8. Posted

    Brownsfan: you could be as flexible in coding an automated system as you are in implementing a discretionary system. What are you looking for in interpreting your candles? For price to swiftly reverse on high volume? That can be coded into an automated system.

     

    Notouch - I am not looking to code that at all. I don't believe I posted that the way I trade candles is to look for high volume on a price reversal anywhere on this site. So, perhaps what you posted can be automated, but that's not how I trade at all.

  9. Posted

    I don't think there's any aspect of a good discretionary system that couldn't be automated.

     

    Notouch - I think some aspects would be very difficult to code. For example, when trading candlesticks as I do, I can easily code what a hammer is by textbook definitions. But in real time, I am much more lenient on what I call a hammer. In intra-day trading, I think you have to be. So, while an automated system may be looking for picture perfect hammers, I may have taken other trades simply by 'eyeing' the charts up. And I wouldn't call one hammer better than the other, so to bypass the non-textbook hammer is a big mistake in my opinion.

     

    I think it really boils down to what you are using in your trading. As you said, tape reading may be easily put into code. I have no idea if that's true, but it sounds like it could be. Your textbook candlesticks can easily be put into code as well, but that is one part of trading candlesticks in my opinion. A hammer that appears in chop is nothing to me.

     

    I would love the ability to code my trading system in such a way that I know it will do what I can do on my own, if not better. And since I am unable to do this myself, there is strong hesitation to try to find a programmer that is willing and able to do it.

  10. Posted

    Here's my 2 cents - if trading futures, I use an 'around the clock' chart setup with VBC's. By doing so, gaps are not a consideration for me. Not sure if that's good or bad or indifferent, but I'd rather trade my 'normal' setups vs. trying to play a opening gap specific strategy. I'm not saying those don't work, b/c they do if you know what you are doing. Simply, for me, trying to implement a gap strategy, an opening strategy, a 15 min strategy, etc. etc. was not profitable enough for me to spend considerable amounts of time focusing on.

     

    By implementing a VBC chart on a 24 hour timeframe, all these 'extra noises' are not a factor to me. Again, that's not to say don't bother researching them, but in the spirit of keeping things simple, I simply look for my setups regardless of this other stuff. As you can tell, Mark is extremely intelligent and has done years and years of research on this and many other topics of trading. I don't know if I don't have the smarts and/or the patience to perform that kind of research, so I have chosen to not look for specific strategies based on the time of day.

     

    FOR INFO ON VBC'S CLICK THIS LINK: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/volume-based-candles-how-profit-1414.html

     

    FOR INFO ON WRB'S CLICK THIS LINK: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/wide-range-bodies-big-candles-1480.html

  11. Posted

    Interesting thread...

     

    As I mentioned in another post, I suppose I am a discretionary automated trader... In other words, I am discretionary b/c I am pulling the trigger myself and automated b/c I simply follow my rules.

     

    In my time as a trader and broker, I have never seen a successful automated system that can stand the test of time. I won't argue that some systems are very profitable in a given period of time (but who's system can't do that, right?). The key in my opinion for the automated traders is knowing when to turn your system 'off' or when to leave it alone. It's easy in hindsight to say that based on your backtesting, you would have turned it off at XYZ point, but making that call in real time is not so easy. If you turn it off and you simply were in a small drawdown, you lose. If you let it run and turn your account into half in one month (like the blog post pasted here), you lose. And as that blog post said, in essence, no matter what - your emotions can/will drive your ultimate decisions even if you are a 'hands off automated' trader.

     

    And of course the devil's advocate in me says that if there are successful automated traders out there, you won't find them on the internet message boards. I think they in fact have too much to lose by even hinting to their setups. I can post my charts all day here and each person would interpret them differently. I post a trading code and everyone has the exact same thing. I would think that's a potential problem...

  13. Posted

    I spent some time looking at Firefox more and the free add-on's that you download straight from them are just so much better, easier, etc. than these IE7 ones I found.

     

    May be time to make that change...

  14. Posted

    I personally think most discretionary traders would be automated traders if they knew how to code. The only true discretionary traders are "instinct" traders who enter trades without any rules. If you have a set a rules then it would be possible to put those rules into an automated strategy but it would take very advanced coding. Investment banks are spending more money on coders now than traders.

     

    Well said notouch. I voted discretionary but would like to take my vote back per notouch's post. ;)

     

    I would love to have my system coded in such a way that I could walk away and not come back to a margin call. I know, that's extreme, but that's how I feel. Unless I code it or trust the person doing it w/o question, I remain a discretionary automated trader. :p

  16. Posted

    That's a good point Robert. Again, as I've tried to stress here, make sure you watch these VBC charts in real-time for days/weeks before putting any real money on the line. And Robert hit the nail on the head that each instrument is different and will react differently based on the settings that you chose. There is no perfect answer to the question - what should I set my VBC chart at. What works for me or Robert may not work for you.

     

    Test, test and test some more until you prove to yourself that either you like the VBC's or don't and then prove to yourself what setting you like the VBC at for each instrument you trade.

  18. Posted

    Walter - thanks for sharing, interesting charts!

     

    Are you exclusively trading this setup or using this in addition to your other trading?

     

    Just an FYI for any newbies to divergences - as Walter has illustrated here, be sure to have some sort of filtering system before trading divergences. This is coming from experience... I attached a screenshot where I highlighted all possible divergences on the indicator looking purely at divergences. As you can see, there are many trades, most of which failed. I simply wanted to provide a little real world experience and hopefully save some trader(s) a few bucks before jumping into divergences! The books make them look so easy! :mad:

    5aa70dd01b0ae_twiggdiv.thumb.png.d72faeb5b05c81ae759b7200b05153e9.png

  19. Posted

    Something that wasn't mentioned in this thread and that I would like to point out:

     

    When you get wide range candlesticks with VBCs, how do you interpret that?

    If volume is the same for all intervals, why would certain intervals have a wider range than others?

    I think it could be a thin DOM, letting prices run thru levels faster...

    ..or the majority of traders pushing the market in one direction...

     

    Sharp, this piggybacks on our WRB discussion here - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/wide-range-bodies-big-candles-1480.html

     

    I think the WRB's are the result of a momentary imbalance between the bulls and the bears. I have not seen any correlation to a thin DOM, actually quite the opposite. WRB's usually form when there is high volume and action taking place. Keep in mind that the 'high' volume I am referring to is relative to the immediate trading taking place. In other words, we may get a 'high volume WRB push' but in the context of the overall day, this may be 'low' volume.

     

    If you are going to watch these in real time, you'll see what I am talking about. I can't stress enough how important and eye opening it is when you watch VBC charts form in real time, esp at the open and around news as Sharp mentioned. It's amazing at how quickly candles will print during those times.

  20. Posted

    Sharp - welcome to the discussion. Here's what I found very useful from your post:

     

    * I've taken a look at VBCs and I liked their visual impact. They look cleaner than regular charts.

     

    * I believe VBCs are useful because you know what you get for each candlestick printed on the chart. All you gotta do is interpret the price action and be better focused on the actual pattern signals, while trading off time charts you have to worry both about the patterns and volume.

     

    * I found it pretty decent and I must say it's really fast around the open and news times, when many contracts are exchanged.

     

    I think those 3 points summarize VBC's well for a new person looking at them. I personally only use VBC charts in my analysis as I have found them much more reliable for my style of trading.

     

    I've mentioned this here, but after reading the 3rd point I highlighted here - if you attempt to use VBC's in your trading, you must be focused and ready to pounce on trades that appear. You do NOT have time to 2nd guess yourself, esp during fast printing times. The best analogy I have tonight is you need to act like a cheetah lying in the weeds just waiting for your chance to pounce on your prey. You'll have milliseconds to pounce on that prey, but when you do... watch out! ;)

     

    As you said, there is no grail. It does not exist. What does exist is the possibility of creating a trading methodology that works for you. Once you find this, you have found your 'grail'.

  21. Posted

    It's not an easy decision to make on how to take the board forward. James, I think you need to understand that you are not going to make everyone happy and that's just the way it is. Great ideas and thoughts in this thread, I guess we'll see where the ship ends up being steered.

     

    I like the idea of a resident 'expert' / moderator / etc on particular topics. The only problem there is if someone is going to spend time with the newbies and such, there has to be something in it for them to keep them over the long haul. I think most of us would jump up and help right now, but 3, 6, 12 months down the road, being the resident newbie question answerer guy could lose it's flare... Just something to think about.

     

    I also like the glossary idea James. I think this could save a lot of repeat questions and wasted time on the boards.

  22. Posted

    If displayed in candle format, that 'nose' is a gravestone doji and all three candles together would have been an evening star. That's probably why a lot of these 'formations' work - whether using a candle chart or line chart, the essence of what is being shown is the same.

  25. Posted

    sds - I trade multiple contracts, but simply to get the returns that I am looking for. With that being said, I used to do something like Tin illustrated for us here, but after a real hard look at arbitrary fixed profit levels, I am focusing my efforts on exiting based on 'what the market is telling you' vs. holding and hoping... I started a thread here in case you did not see it - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/wide-range-bodies-big-candles-1480.html

     

    I have found that having set profit levels out there is great when they are hit, but you really can 2nd guess yourself when they are almost hit. For example, I remember a trade that was last week or the week before on the YM. My profit target was at +20 based on the strategy being used at that time. It was a short and looked great! The move went exactly 19 points and not one more. My order was just sitting there - an MIT order actually. It just had to move one more point and I was out with a nice trade. Well, that one more point never happened... Talk about kicking yourself in the ass over that...

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