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Market Wizard
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Everything posted by brownsfan019

  1. Trading And Poker Parallels

    http://www.stocktrading.com/Pokerarticle2006.htm REAL WORLD Gaming Theory Trading And Poker Parallels Risk? Yes. Reward? Of course. But the similarities go deeper. by Don Bright with Darren Clifford A couple of months ago, I was asked about the similarities between stock trading and what seems to be the new national pastime, poker. Las Vegas is home to some of the world’s best poker players, and Bright Trading is headquartered in Las Vegas. It just so happens that some of the world’s best poker players are also Bright traders. My brother, Bob, made his first fortune playing blackjack back in the 1970s. He took that money and bought a seat on an exchange to start trading options in 1978. Over the last couple of decades, we have always played poker at our family Christmas gatherings (everyone should have a family tradition, right?). Now, for several years we have had a trader named Chris “Jesus” Ferguson in our organization, and I always thought it was neat to have a younger guy with an interesting appearance as part of our team. To prove that you can’t judge a book by its cover, Ferguson has a doctorate in computer sciences. Ray Bitar, our Los Angeles office manager for many years, teamed up with Ferguson and several top poker players to form a new business venture, Full Tilt Poker. Bitar is now the Ceo (of TiltWare LLC.) of what has become one of the most popular online poker sites among serious players. These business and personal friendships have allowed me to look inside the world of professional poker. My brother and I actually sponsored a poker tournament in Anaheim, CA, in 2005, and asked the players who are also traders to share their thoughts about the similarities between the two activities. Here is a listing of some of the basic correlations: Both professions can be performed from virtually anywhere on the planet (and even “virtually”). Success in either field provides a great feeling of independence, and of course, the financial rewards for both can be great. Let’s explore a few more points: 1 Tilt. Emotions do not dictate the cards or the price of a stock, but they do affect how we react to them. Being able to stay away from emotions and only play or trade probabilities leads to success in both trading and poker. 2 Number of outs. The more ways you have to make a hand, the greater your probability of successes. In trading, the more ways you have to hedge a trade, the more outs you have, and the greater your chances of success. 3 Table talk. Institutions are always upgrading, downgrading, and making comments about stocks that they own! Table talk does not change the cards at the table, or the ability of a company to make money. Institutions and players use table talk for deception. 4 Capital management. Managing your capital in poker is as important as playing your cards. In trading, not only do you have to manage how much of your capital you will risk on each trade, but also how much capital you will leverage to increase your edge. 5 Varying your bets. One of the most powerful tools in any game is the ability to change your bet when you have an edge. This is true for blackjack, poker, and trading. You don’t start a new strategy with 5,000 shares; you work up to bigger trade size. 6 Betting for information. In poker, a small bet is sometimes used to gain information about your opponent’s hand. In trading, you may use a small trade to gain information about the presence of buyers or sellers. With both games, using that information is key to your eventual success. 7 Pot odds. If the amount of money a player expects to win is worth the risk, poker players will be in pots that they have less than a 50% chance of winning. Similarly, traders will take trades that have a small probability of being successful on the grounds that they will gain a large amount if they are right. 8 Know your opponent. Traders will watch how a stock prints a buyer or a seller the same way a poker player will watch the betting strategies of their opponent. 9 Play online. With the rising popularity of the Internet, you can always find a game of poker, or trade from anywhere in the world. 10 Discipline and patience. Both trading and poker are games of discipline and patience: knowing how and when to play, and then executing to the best of your abilities. For those who excel at one game, there is a good probability you will also excel in the other. Of these points, one of the most important things to remember about both trading and poker is that you must enjoy what you’re doing, do it well, and have some fun while you’re at it! Don Bright is a principal of Bright Trading, an equity trading corporation. He may be reached at don@stocktrading.com. References · http://www.stocktrading.com/pokerpages.htm · http://www.fulltiltpoker.com · http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com · http://www.pokerpages.com
  2. The Futures I-Trade Show is currently going on and a presenter there is Al Brooks. I think there might have been a discussion about his ideas on here. While clicking around, I found that he has a book for sale now as well. I have it on order to take a look at it. These online events are very convenient and could offer some ideas.
  3. There was a brief mention of gaps in another thread and I thought I'd throw this one out there and see where it might go. Personally, I've always been interested in trading the gaps, but never developed it into something that I could make regular money at. First, a gap according to investopedia is: A break between prices on a chart that occurs when the price of a stock makes a sharp move up or down with no trading occurring in between. Gaps can be created by factors such as regular buying or selling pressure, earnings announcements, a change in an analyst's outlook or any other type of news release. In stocks, you see gaps all the time. In futures, you can easily see gaps as well if you set your chart to RTH only (regular trading hours). If you set your chart to 24 hours, you will rarely see anything resembling a gap. Second, why discuss gaps? There is a theory or idea in trading that says sooner or later, all gaps get 'filled'. Filled means that price will eventually travel the distance where price gapped overnight to 'fill' it in. The assumption being made on gap plays is this then - if we believe that gaps will fill, is there a viable daytrading strategy there? Here's my personal take on it - some days, you can just buy/sell the first candle pattern you see that would move the price in the direction of filling the gap - other days, not so much. For example, price gaps down, you buy the first hammer you see and set your profit target where the gap would fill. Example from ES 5 Min Chart: End result: 1 trade for +8.75. Not too shabby, right? But then you catch a day like this: In summary, there are days where this gap play is very simple and clean. Other days (such as today, May 21) it can get ugly if you keep buying. Basically, if you get caught into a trend day that is the opposite of the way you are buying/selling, hold on for dear life. With that said, maybe this could work if you give it a limited number of 'bullets' - ie, how many times you are willing to try to pick off the gap. I refer to bullets b/c that term is used a lot in poker when you are bluffing - how many bullets are you willing to fire to bluff? Same idea here - how many bullets are you willing to fire to basically sell the HOD or buy the LOD and ride it to the gap fill. Example of firing 2 bullets: ============== There could be a tradable strategy if you can keep your losses to a minimum. Exactly what that means, I'm not sure. Maybe w/ some discussion here it could help anyone using gaps in their planning. DO YOUR OWN WORK AND RESEARCH BEFORE PUTTING ANY REAL MONEY AT RISK. THE IDEA PRESENTED HERE IS INTENDED FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES AND NOT MEANT TO LAY OUT A TRADING PLAN. I PERSONALLY HAVE NEVER USED THIS TO TRADE LIVE MONEY ON. Note: for entries, I assumed entry would be using a buy stop or sell stop to help minimize the amount of losing trades.
  4. Over the years of my trading, I am always looking at different markets to see how my trading style would be doing on other markets in comparison to the US indexes (mainly ES) that I have traded. More often than not it's more of an exercise that simply reaffirms my focus on the ES; however, that has changed recently w/ my study of the bond futures. While recommending a contract is not a one size fits all, I'd suggest taking a look to see if any of the bond contracts could compliment your trading. Personally I have found that I'm getting less fakeouts and shakeouts on the bond contracts in comparison to the ES. So much so that I'm going almost exclusively to the bond contracts while the getting is good. We all know that markets change & you have to adapt to them, but currently (Jan 2009) I'm finding much easier goings in the bonds markets vs. the US indexes. The bond markets I am focusing on are: 10 Yr Treasury Note - ZN 30 Yr Treasury Bond - ZB On these markets, I have seen the following characteristics: Good volume Plenty of activity starting at 8am EST Slower pace - easier to get in/out of trades S/R level respected more More specifically - my stop levels are holding much easier here Profit targets reasonable & attainable Pretty much die off around Noon EST, which means a nice day of trading 4 hours and done for me What I find rather interesting is that I am using the exact same setup on the bond markets and the ES but finding the trades easier on the bond markets. Of course that may change at some point, but right now, it's working quite well. I think the bond markets are often viewed as boring or something only pit traders play, but there's plenty of volume to daytrade and I really like being able to start at 8am EST. Again, it's not for everyone but take a look to see how the bond markets might react based on how you trade. You may find them boring or not conducive to your style of trading, but if you find yourself getting having some aggravating moments on the ES, take a peak. Note - depending on which contracts you look at, the initial price quoting may be a little confusing. Takes a little bit to get used to.
  5. Trading Oil and Gold

    I realized that I have a post on bonds and grains but nothing on oil or gold, so here we go. OIL Simple enough to understand that in today's time a lot of people are watching oil and there's a number of futures contracts to trade here. Characteristics of the oil markets: Variety of times to trade based on where you are at - can get a jumpstart on your trading day before the indexes even open Can be uncorrelated to the indexes 3 possible contracts to trade When in play, oil will move There's 3 contracts that I trade and watch: GCL NSEA QM Note - your broker may have different symbols, I am going off my OEC charts. As always, perform your own due diligence before trading here. Pull up a few charts and see if you like what you see. IMPORTANT: Every Wed @ 10:30AM EST is the oil inventory report. DO NOT HOLD TRADES INTO THIS OR EXECUTE TRADES INTO THIS REPORT UNTIL YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE. Econoday has this listed as "EIA Petroleum Status Report''. I have my gmail calendar setup with a reminder every Wed to trigger at 10:20AM to exit all positions soon if I am in one. Forget this one time and you could pay dearly. GOLD Gold is actually very similar to oil so that's why I'm including here. This is also a hot topic lately and there is 1 main futures contract that I will trade here. Characteristics of gold: Variety of times to trade based on where you are at - can get a jumpstart on your trading day before the indexes even open Uncorrelated to the indexes When in play, gold will move Contracts to trade: GGC - this is the contract I trade as there is good volume here. Mini-Gold - for whatever reason, this has never attracted volume so I wouldn't touch this thing. As you can see, there are some similarities between oil and gold but they are 2 different markets that could compliment your trading.
  6. In an effort to educate and stimulate some discussion, I'm going to try to put together a few steps for candlestick trading success! Step 1: Identify the candlestick 'patterns' or 'formations' There are a variety of websites and books out there talking about candlestick patterns or formations. Some sites out there with some free stuff that can at least get you started in pattern recognition. Stockcharts.com in particular has a nice section on candlesticks (click hyperlinks): Main Page Intro To Candlesticks List of Common Patterns That's a few free links from stockcharts.com. Those are pretty good for being free. Keep in mind that is not meant to be a substitute for books, videos and live seminars. As mentioned previously, I like the work of Steve Nison. So the very, very first step is to be able to look at a candle(s) and identify if there's a potential candle pattern or formation there. That's step 1. I know that seems easy, but it can take some practice, esp in real-time and esp in day-trading. I would suggest looking at some DAILY charts and just start flipping through charts of stocks to see what you can recognize. Don't worry about stock charts if you just trade futures, you just want to train your eyes to see patterns and formations. And speaking of day-trading, there is one important consideration when using candlestick analysis in a day-trading environment - YOU MUST REMAIN FLEXIBLE IN YOUR DEFINITIONS OF CANDLESTICKS IN REAL-TIME, DAY-TRADING. The lower the chart timeframe, the more flexible you must be. And what I mean is that if you are only looking for picture perfect hammers, you might be waiting a while for a signal. As we get more charts posted, this will make more sense. And from candlestick recognition, there are a couple schools of thought of how trade them: 1) Trade any of the patterns if your parameters are met. 2) Trade certain patterns based on your preference and testing. This is going to be an integral part of your trading plan and there's no right answer here. It really is dependent on how you build your trading plan and what your testing has shown. I'm not going to do the work for you, so don't bother asking.
  7. Recommended Forex Charting

    I'm not sure why, but I get this 'forex bug' if you will and occasionally want to look at some charts. I'm not looking to open an account or anything right now, but does anyone have any recommended charting platforms for fx? Real-time is not necessary right now, so I'm open to suggestions. Thanks guys.
  8. Here's my review of Open ECry (OEC) who is a futures broker. website: http://www.openecry.com/ I've been discussing moving my business to OEC recently for a number of reasons and have found that OEC is a great firm to discuss your biz with and they will do what they can to help you out. Some of the impressions I have thus far: Very competitive commissions. Platform is FREE and it is very nice in my opinion. Free would normally mean junk to me, but the OEC trader is just as nice as the $500/mo T4 I have currently. Easy to get answers, help, etc. They are smaller, but not so small to be concerned. They are based in Ohio! How cool is that! (well, for me at least. I can go and actually see their offices). I do not have my business there yet, but at this point, it appears this will be the most logical next step for me. If you are in the business for a new futures broker or just want to receive a competitive quote, I would suggest at least contacting OEC during your due diligence. ---------- Make sure to vote for me in the trading quote contest!! Hurry before time runs out!! http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f97/trading-quotes-june-2007-votes-1879.html
  9. Open ECry Wish List Thread

    I think I've mentioned before that I write up some reviews for Open ECry about ideas for improvements on their software - charts, dom's and the main trader window. Since there are a few other OEC users on the board, I thought I'd create an OEC Wish List thread where you can list ideas for improvements, large or small. I cannot promise that any will be implemented, but I will be sure to pass the suggestions on. I usually write up a review quarterly or so for them. So post any ideas or suggestions here or PM me if you'd prefer to keep them private. No names will be given to OEC (unless you ask me to) with any ideas or suggestions. And for anyone wondering why I do this, it's simple - the better and stronger that OEC trader is, the better for all of us using the product. OEC has been good to me, so I have no problem doing this for them. It's a 'scratch my back and I'll scratch yours' kind of thing.
  10. Scaling In and/or Out

    In my ever pursuit of maximizing gains and minimizing losses (if possible) I'm wondering if anyone is currently trading with a scaling in and/or out methodology. As I've mentioned previously, I like to keep things simple (one entry, one exit) but I had a little idea today that if I scaled into my entries, perhaps losses could be kept smaller. I suppose it really comes down to the exact entry method you use, but for me, I typically enter with Buy Stop Limits or Sell Stop Limits. By using this type of entry, I'm wondering if I could keep losses smaller in cases where my full contract lot does not get filled. Let me explain... In this chart I am assuming that we have a long entry and put 1/3 of contracts at 3 levels (just one tick apart) on the ES: So in order for the trade to fully 'confirm' 3 price levels would need to be taken out to the upside. Obviously if going long, you'd like to see price moving up. The problem with this is that your overall net fill is going to be the average of all 3 (mid-point level in this example) and you could have your full boat riding at one tick better. But in my mind, that one tick better for the winners could be offset by taking much smaller losses. Let me explain further: In this chart I am assuming that my entry gets ticked in and 1/3 of my contracts get filled and then a stop loss occurs: The reasoning behind this is that I have seen trades where with a buy/sell stop order that price can just peak it's head through enough to trigger my order and then retreat. Since I am mainly trading the ES, it's realistic to consider that it can hit one level of my entries and then retreat. So why be exposed for the full amount at one level... That's the idea currently. The issue here is that on the winners you are going to wish that you got it all in at that one price level. But by spreading your orders in thirds over three levels, your net average is simply the middle price level. And assuming that you just go one tick above each previous tick on the ES, it doesn't appear to be a big sacrifice in consideration of the winners, but could result in considerably less in the losers. I'm going to have to examine this some more but thought I'd open it up for some discussion here.
  11. Forex Price Action Scalping

    Forex Price Action Scalping Has anyone read this? Few on ET talking about it and first I've seen it.
  12. Discussions of MACD Usage

    In this thread we can discuss the usage of standard MACD settings and any other ideas you may have on the topic.
  13. Chandelier Exit Discussion

    Thanks to nickm001 in this thread, he posted an useful PDF that talks about a few different exit strategies. One that grabbed my attention was called the "Chandelier Exit". It starts on page 19 of the PDF (I attached another copy to this post). Here's my take on this exit strategy - at the close of a candle in the direction of your trade, your stop is moved based on that close. Now, where and how much you move the stop is completely customizable in my opinion. The author of the PDF, Chuck Le Beau, uses ATR in his calculation. I personally am looking at using a certain distance in terms of ticks/points to use this strategy. Thus far the testing looks pretty good. Many times you will catch a GOOD part of a trending move and not so much in range bound action. The big question is what setting do you use to calculate the exit. That's a work in progress for me currently I have one question or favor though - if anyone has coding that can work with TradeStation that would replicate this, please post here. I am looking for a dot or something that when a candle closes and the high is higher than the previous candle's high, a dot or something is placed based on the threshold setting. Example: > Long the ES @ 1476. > Next candle's close is 1477.75. > Based on my chandelier setting, let's say 1 point (4 ticks), the trailing stop should be placed at 1476.75. > Next candle's close is 1477, so there is NO stop movement, stop holds at 76.75 and either the trade continues in your direction or you are out for a small gain. Anyways, if someone has that code for TradeStation or could even throw something together, I would appreciate it. I want to provide credit where credit is due. I initially found this article from nickm001's post, so thanks! The author of the article is Mr. Chuck Le Beau and his website is: http://www.traderclub.com/ Further info on his site regarding the chandelier exit - http://www.traderclub.com/discus/messages/107/477.html?FridayDecember319991048pm I am not endorsing Mr. Le Beau and/or his website, so please do your own due diligence. Stops - Different Strategies.pdf
  14. Think you can apply your trading strategies to sports??? Take a look at this site - http://www.protrade.com It's a neat idea - a stock market type setup where you buy and sell athletes! It's free and there's no obligation to 'play'! If you are interested, send me a pm with your email address and I will send you an invite. If you decide to sign up, I earn some extra bucks to spend on my trades! Side note - I first came across this through a business magazine yesterday and the plan is to actually take this idea and start a sports stock market in real dollars. This is down the road, so don't worry about needing cash or anything to play this now, but the guys behind this think there could be a market for this, just like stocks.
  15. Saw this article in the recent Futures Mag and thought I'd post here for anyone interested in testing this basic system out... LINK TO ARTICLE The U.S. Treasury futures is an often overlooked market. Most traders – novice and professional alike – look at the grinding nature of the trade and assume there is no trade there. In fact, the bonds are a tremendous trade, and at $31.25 per tick give you a lot of bang for your buck. But the best thing about the bonds is that they respond — and have responded for more than 20 years — to specific setups that will allow the novice trader to begin the path to profitability while trading without emotion; and provide the professional trader with more tools to use to win in the markets. One successful set-up is called “the first-hour trade.” This trade is perfect for both the part-time trader who has a full-time career and the professional trader who trades the entire trading day. The bond market opens in the pit at 7:20 a.m. CST. Wait until 8:20 a.m. CST and then record the pit high and the pit low for the first hour. The pit trade is a much better indicator of true price action (most charting packages give you the ability to filter your charts to pit only, electronic only or combined). If the range for the first hour is 13 ticks or less, look for a breakout trade that will trigger either one tick above or one tick below the first hour’s range. The target for the trade is to double the first hour’s range. In “One-hour breakout,” note that the bond market’s first hour range was 116-12 to 116-18. Once that range is set up, put in entry stops to buy at 116-19 or sell at 116-11. On Nov. 23, you didn’t have to wait long for the market to make your decision; at 8:30, the bond market went 18-bid and traded up to 20 – allowing you to get filled on your entry stop at 19. As soon as you are filled, immediately place your exit orders in the order book at the target price: 116-24 (A six-tick first hour range projects to a six tick extension; 116-18 + 6/32 = 116-24). The setup says the market should print the target price – not necessarily trade it - so you want to get your exit orders in fast so you are first in the queue. Common questions about this setup are: 1. “Do we need to wait a few ticks after the breakout so we know it is not a false breakout?” No. Enter the trade at the breakout price, which is one tick above/below the first hour range. This way you can earn positive slippage if it retreats. 2. “What if the breakout doesn’t happen for a few hours?” As long as the trade can be expected to complete before the 2 p.m. pit close, it does not matter when the breakout occurs. 3. “Where is my stop?” This question can only be answered by the trader. Typically T-bonds require at least a three-tick stop – but no more than a five-tick stop. Place a stop you are comfortable with, and let the trade play itself out. In entering this trade it is helpful to try and time your entry. In the above example, we are supposed to buy 19s. When the market is 18-bid/19-offer, pay closer attention, but do not buy when it is still 19-offer. When the market goes 19-bid you still do not have to bite, but do not miss the 20s. What dynamic you are exploiting is the grinding nature of the bond market that most traders dismiss as “poor trade.” The bonds do chop and grind, but this will inevitably mean they’ll come back 19-offer and when they go bid the second time and begin to fill in some bid volume (300- 400), join the bid. I t is an affective way to trade but if you can’t spend seven hours a day in front of your screen yo u can still use this strategy. A part-time trader can check the market at 8:20 a.m., place a stop order to initiate a position at the breakout price, place an OCO (one cancels other) stop/exit order – and turn off the computer. This is only one of many useful setups in the T-bond market. While the pros reading this will have another trade to put on, the new traders must also realize the hidden benefit to trading setups like this: They give you entry prices and targets and remove your emotions from the trade. Jack Broz trades bonds and mini-Dow from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade where he has been a member since 1996. He can be reached at tttdow@themarlinletter.com AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK BEFORE PLACING ANY REAL MONEY AT RISK. I CANNOT VOUCH FOR THIS SYSTEM, JUST POSTING FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES.
  16. I had an interesting discussion today with a trading friend/colleague and the question posed to me was - how much money would it take for you to teach what you know? I wasn't quite sure how to respond. In my mind, the hours and thousands of dollars spent is priceless. His reply to me was - but for the right price, wouldn't anyone consider an offer? :hmmmm: I asked why he was asking and he was approached by someone willing to pay what I would consider an offer with entertaining if he would mentor him... I guess it's the age old question, right? Would you sell your trading 'secrets' for the right price? If so, what's the right price? And why? I told him that to gauge the seriousness of the offer, that the offer would need to be substantial to begin with - money up-front and some sort of % of profits or something. After thinking about it, it's a great way to annuitize your business if your pupil(s) make money. There's my broker side coming out - the important of annuitizing your income stream... those were the days.
  17. Crude Oil (CL) on Globex

    Has anyone traded or looked at the CL, Crude Oil Physical Delivery contract? This puppy can move. Contract info: http://www.nymex.com/CL_spec.aspx It caught my attention recently b/c I used to trade the QM (miny on Globex) and slowly the volume just died. I wasn't willing to daytrade something with so little volume. And I thought oil was out of my trading life. Until I found the CL. I was able to find it due to the massive data available through Open ECry to their customers. I enjoyed trading the QM as it always provided a completely different instrument from the indexes to trade. I know others here have asked about contracts that can move or just something to consider outside the indexes and the CL is a possible option. The volume is decent for an oil contract and can provide a nice contract to trade that does not move based on the US indexes. Some highlights of this contract: Tick value = $10.00/tick USD Trading is good till 2:30pm EST. It is still open after 2:30, but due to the pits closing, the electronic contract dies as well. Kinda nice if you don't want to work will 4:15pm! This thing will react to the weekly oil inventory numbers, so I suggest knowing exactly when this report is (usually Wed @ 10:30am EST). This is a PHYSICAL contract, which means if you hold until settlement, it is NOT settled in cash. It is settled in REAL oil. In other words, do not hold into expiration. Speaking of expiration, the contract expires MONTHLY. I have an alert on the 3rd Wed of the month to watch volume rollover. Again, exit all trades of the current month by the 3rd Fri of the month. I would not suggest holding this contract overnight anyways, so if daytrading, you should be out of all positions by the close. This puppy can move, so please watch before trading real money. Most brokers/charting have this contract as the CL. Commissions can be higher than other contracts. Open ECry has been very competitive with me for CL trades. One issue I have found is that some brokers do not clear the Nymex/Globex trades, so your broker will have to route the order to another broker and of course, this adds on cost to you. Here's some charts for anyone interested, esp if you do not have the data feed currently. ALL charts are 5 minute charts. 7-20-07 7-17-07 7-16-07 7-11-07 Again, due your own due diligence before trading the CL, but it's worth a look in my opinion! :thumbs up:
  18. Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don't) New book from Jack Schwager out soon. His books are usually a good read.
  19. Not yet Obsidian, but on the to-do list.
  20. OEC Has Time and Sales (finally)

    Time and sales are now in OEC trader. A long requested feature and I had no idea it was there till I stumbled on it. I wish they would communicate updates better.
  21. Status Quo

    Good question and only time will tell IMO. So far everything ok, but not sure if everything has been transferred yet.
  22. ES Limit Up?

    I think the ES just limited up... HOLY SH*T BATMAN. Don't even remember when I saw that last...
  23. I wanted to provide a little background on my use of candlesticks for anyone that might be interested. :p As many, when considering trading it's overwhelming where to begin. The first thing was how to display the charts and candles was one of the many options. From there it was an inquisitive nature that brought me to a few different books and websites out there. In the end, I liked what I saw with Steve Nison. I started with the books, progressed to some DVD's and I have gone to one live seminar with Steve. While that seminar was the most 'expensive' it was great. I am a very visual person (maybe why I like the candles to begin with) and a live seminar is a great experience. Yes, it will cost more than a book or even some DVD's, but in my opinion, it's a great way to shorten the learning curve. I realize that sounds like a Nison commercial, but that's where I've come from. Now my candlestick analysis is much more than just finding the shapes. At the beginning, it really feels like it's a 'find the shape' trading plan. Now, I understand what the candles are telling me. I've mentioned this before - I think EVERY candle tells you a story of the fight between the bulls and bears. The sooner you can get your arms around that, the faster other things will make sense. It sounds simple, but I have yet to find a book or DVD or website or newsletter that stresses that part of the candlestick analysis. I hate the 'find the shape' stuff you see all over the internet. You need to eventually get to the point where you can look at a candle, regardless of shape, and just 'get it'. Get what's going on and get why this is important. This leads me to another pet peeve of mine - trying to program these 'find the shape' things into a computer program. I have yet to find a computer program that can find what I might consider to be a bullish candle since there is some flexibility needed here, esp in day-trading. So, I would highly recommend you learn about this before trying to get a computer to do it for you. It's like learning math - you need to learn how the numbers work before you use a calculator. We'll discuss some different ideas and charts and see how candles can help. This is not a one size fits all, so keep in mind that candles may not work for you! I'll try to post some charts next week and in the meantime, if you have some charts or ideas or questions, feel free to post them!
  24. Welcome to the Candlestick Corner everyone! I asked James if we could start a sub-forum for the main purpose of discussing candlesticks, candlestick analysis, etc. in one part of the forum. As many of you know, candlestick analysis is my bread and butter. I also know that good discussions can hopefully lead to a learning experience for everyone! I am going to be out a good part of this weekend, so I apologize that I won't be able to participate much in our little candlestick corner till Sunday. Turns out that today is the start of Browns Training Camp and Sat is my best friend's bachelor party.... so, I won't be here much. I'm not sure where we will take this part of the forum. I going to leave it up to discussion. Even though my title is moderator, I have no intentions of acting like an unbiased moderator. I hope that's ok. Being a neutral moderating moderator is just not for me. :thumbs up:
  25. One thing that really helped my equity curve become more smooth was using markets where the best opportunities exist. I'll dive into this some other time, but I wanted to bring to focus trading the grains (Soybeans, Corn, Wheat) contracts as weapons in your arsenal when you go to battle each day. Some characteristics of these markets that I've noticed: Open @ 10:30am EST (very convenient to roll to these marekts once other markets have been open for a bit) These contracts move and move quick on the open usually Good liquidity for daytrading Provide a non-correlated market to the indexes or currencies to trade 3 Main markets to choose from in this arena for daytrading purposes: Soybeans Wheat Corn Personally, I like the movements on the ZS the best. IMPORTANT TO WATCH ON GRAINS: WHEN ROLLOVER IS NEAR In my haste to get this up I missed an important consideration when trading grains - watching when rollover occurs. When rollover is near, the volume can split over the current and future contract which can cause each contract to slow down b/c volume is split. Just be aware of when rollover is near and watch the overall volume on each contract. Take a peak if you are looking for a non-correlated index market to trade. As always, watch these and practice on sim before placing any real money trades. Just remember that I can't stress enough that these guys will move on the open and move swiftly waiting for no man. I would suggest using a non-time based chart (volume, tick or range) to smooth out the fluctuations a bit.

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