brownsfan019

I found this at ET and thought it was an interesting read. Attached is a PDF from The Ebullio Commodity Fund which just went through a huge drawdown. While one could just laugh at them, I think we can all learn lessons from the pros. Yes, they would be considered a 'pro' although it may come into question after this. I think it stresses just how important money management and risk management is, regardless of the size of your trades. You have to sit back and wonder - how on Earth did they allow these losses over the last 2 months become so large? We may never know the full story, but something should have set off some alarms at some point I would think. ebullio feb 2010.pdf

I do find it quite interesting that there are all these supposedly smart quant guys lurking on a forum that has little discussion on quants and they happen to work for UB. Are we really to believe that people that think what 99.999999% of the posts here are useless spend time here lurking around? Why bother lurking at a forum where you have no interest in what is being discussed? That's like me lurking at a Pittsburgh Steelers forum... what a waste of time. Guess the quant guys are way too advanced for my thinking. They think what we discuss here is garbage, yet they spend time here? Why? As with any vendor, the proof is in the pudding. I don't believe we've ever seen 1 blotter from UB showcasing the advanced models and techniques that he and his firm employ. Or even just a live trade call - not after the fact charts. As Thales pointed out in a previous post, there's a lot of holes even in the charts that had been presented previously. So until UB can offer something that us little retail guys can use, we just get to hear more and more about how wonderful UB and his firm is and how what we down here use is no good.

Actually what it's telling you DD is that daytrading is not something that can be mastered in a short period of time. It will take you years to master this trade.

For our newer members, I do a lot of fundraising for the LLS so I will post these coupons when I get them in my email. You can look for the links here or sign up to receive their emails and get them directly. I get nothing from you using the coupon, it's all for LLS. And saves you 30%, which is a nice little savings. I only wish they did this for BBY or Lowe's. lol

DT - how would you play that wedge if you were?

As someone that knows zero about Taylor, I have to agree with DD that it's a touch confusing to say we are in a 'buy day' and the best trade was a short that was simply a failed test of a previous high... So if the goal is get get all on the same page, incl those like myself that know zero, there's some education that needs done to explain how a short is the best trade on a buy day. If that is not the goal, then you might want to specify who this thread is for.

Another 30% off coupon for you and 5% of your purchase goes to the LLS. CLICK HERE FOR COUPON Coupon details: 30% off your purchase @ Gap, Old Navy or Banana Republic 5% of your purchase is donated to the LLS Just take coupon to get your discount! Good from Mar 18-21 only

FYI - OEC's charts were business as usual, nothing showing from Saturday.

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine Should be an interesting book for those interested in this topic. Product Description A brilliant account—character-rich and darkly humorous—of how the U.S. economy was driven over the cliff. Truth really is stranger than fiction. Who better than the author of the signature bestseller Liar’s Poker to explain how the event we were told was impossible—the free fall of the American economy—finally occurred; how the things that we wanted, like ridiculously easy money and greatly expanded home ownership, were vehicles for that crash; and how shareholder demand for profit forced investment executives to eat the forbidden fruit of toxic derivatives. Michael Lewis’s splendid cast of characters includes villains, a few heroes, and a lot of people who look very, very foolish: high government officials, including the watchdogs; heads of major investment banks (some overlap here with previous category); perhaps even the face in your mirror. In this trenchant, raucous, irresistible narrative, Lewis writes of the goats and of the few who saw what the emperor was wearing, and gives them, most memorably, what they deserve. He proves yet again that he is the finest and funniest chronicler of our times. . About the Author Michael Lewis, the author of Liar’s Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball, The Blind Side, Panic, Home Game and The Big Short, among other works, lives in Berkeley, California, with his wife, Tabitha Soren, and their three children.

I liked the 60 minutes piece. It was what I expected - gave us some info to chew on and if you want more, buy this book. So for the average person, esp the non-trader, it was well done IMO. The crazy analyticals out there will find holes galore in the piece.

A: 3-5 B: 1-3 C: 0-3 As time goes on, I spend less time on C and more on A and B.

Does that look like a legit email address being used?

Don't watch it then. Some of us will.

Anyways - this one is going on the DVR. We'll see if it's a good piece or just fluff for his book. It's not often you see a piece on TV that talks about traders.

Why my threads? Why does these people seem to find the threads I post in? I've been quiet on TL lately for this very reason and I post about a TV show that some here might find of interest and this person decides this is the time to start complaining about America...

ok.... that is relevant to this how? Please do not turn this thread into a b*tch fest. You can start your own thread or head over to et if you need that. thanks

Not sure about the TI march madness pool, but maybe a TL based one.

Wall Street: Inside The Collapse March 12, 2010 Wall Street: Inside The Collapse Author Tells "60 Minutes" What Led to Wall Street Collapse and Who Predicted It Wall Street bonuses in the current climate are a "very elegant form of theft" former bond trader Michael Lewis tells Steve Kroft. "60 Minutes," Sunday, March 14 at 7 p.m. ET/PT. (CBS) The big banks that received billions of dollars from the U.S. government and continue to pay their executives large bonuses are engaged in a "very elegant form of theft" says former bond-trader-turned-author Michael Lewis. He spoke to "60 Minutes" correspondent Steve Kroft in an interview to be broadcast Sunday, March 14, at 7 p.m. ET/PT. Wall Street banks, many on the verge of collapse just over a year ago, paid employees about $20 billion in bonuses for 2009 profits. Lewis tells Kroft that bonuses paid out by big banks that were propped up by the Federal Reserve in the economic crisis were essentially a scam on taxpayers. When you are a big bank on Wall Street, says Lewis, "You have access to a zero percent loan in virtually unlimited quantities from the Federal Reserve. You can take that money and reinvest it in treasury bonds or government agency securities and you will get the spread and you could do it over and over," says Lewis. "You're essentially borrowing from the government and lending the government and taking a cut." Add to that the vicious cycle of greed within the industry and the bonuses flowed, says Lewis. "Really what's going on is the people on the top of the firm want to make a lot of money and if they're going to make a lot of money, they have got to pay the people under them a lot of money," he says. "So it's a very elegant form of theft right now," Lewis says. Lewis believes the political connections of Goldman Sachs played at least some role in the Federal Reserve's decision to subsidize it and other banks deemed "too big to fail." "There’s no proof but… it certainly didn't hurt that [Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson] was a former Goldman CEO…that a lot of the people at the table were former Goldman employees…that the air..everybody breathed contained the assumption that we can never do anything to harm Goldman Sachs," Lewis tells Kroft. "I can't really see how their political influence didn’t have anything to do with it." In his newest book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, Lewis explores how a handful of Wall Street outsiders who realized the subprime mortgage business was a house of cards, found a way to bet against it and made millions doing it. He tells Kroft the people who decided to create and trade these flawed financial instruments were blinded to the danger by greed for the most part, but should have known better because that was their job. Lewis says despite the fact that their dealings managed to destroy $1.7 trillion - and counting - of wealth, these people still left their companies with big payouts. "I didn't run across a single character who didn't get rich." Even richer: "And they're being paid all over again to sort through the mess…that is an age-old trick on Wall Street…people who create the disasters make a lot of money cleaning up the disaster because they're the ones who know about the disaster," Lewis tells Kroft. Link to video

DD - I don't know the answer to your question off hand as I do not use that function, but send a support ticket and request a demo extension so you can test this stuff out w/o real money on the line. If that does not work, send me a PM.

How do you propose proving that something makes money in real-time? There's a lot of discussions around here but very few that have ever shown the slightest ability to trade. So really there's not much to rate. Guess we can take care of this request rather quickly.

OEC's demo is very realistic. They've done an excellent job at creating a similar to real-time trading environment. In this thread I showed an example.

This is probably one of the better discussions around here lately IMO. It's bigger picture stuff and it is a good thing to look at. I think that as long as mutual funds and annuities dominate the investing landscape, buy and hold (or at least the idea behind it) will live forever. The funds and annuities spend way too much money to let the general public think otherwise & they spend way too much making sure Congress does exactly what they need. So really buy and hold for many people is really just buying whatever funds their broker sells them. And holding them until the broker calls up and says let's make a change. Those funds may not be buy and hold directly, but the investor is buying and holding the funds.

Nice charts dinero! Oil is a great market to be trading, even when it's 'tight' there's still money to be made. Keep it up.

To clarify, there are 3 distinct business organizations we can talk about: 1) Full Service Brokers 2) Discount Brokers 3) Money Managers (mutual funds, annuities) General public will use #1 or #2. If they use #1 they will often then have their money directed into #3 b/c the fees are very nice there for broker and money manager. #1 is going to steer you to 'managed money' products, such as mutual funds, wrap accounts, annuities, etc. Basically anything that charges you fees up front, while you own it and/or when you sell it. They are beautiful products for the broker - do nothing and get paid every single month. If you use a full service broker, you will in fact be sold buy and hold b/c they want you to buy some expensive product and they want you to hold it for as long as you can deal with the ups and downs so they get paid every month. Full service brokers make next to nothing on individual stock trades. The firm provides incentives for you to direct people to products that the 'professionals' manage... and that is open for debate since the majority of funds don't beat the S&P. Discount brokers typically provide little to no advice and they are just there to get your commissions.

DD - Sorry if my rant got off track, but the key is this IMO - buy and hold is alive and well and always will be, b/c of how the brokerage business is structured currently. Brokers, which control billions of investment dollars, preach buy and hold; which in turn keeps the buy and hold dream alive for the majority of people. So IMO buy and hold will always be the primary strategy of investing while the brokers/funds continue to make money regardless of performance - and actually have a huge motivation to keep you in the funds at all times. Until the brokerage system is set up to compensate based on returns, buy and hold will be alive and well. They sell buy and hold as the 'approach' and then it so happens that the 'approach' coincidentally compensates them the largest way possible.