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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. Interesting. Another way to look at things is if the market signals that there is no additional selling other than this overnight rebalancing and a bottom is formed, a push back higher would probably create the conditions for a probe higher some time this afternoon...
  2. Good point. There is definitely a desire in us all to find the 'holy grail'. This was one of the first things I heard about when I started trading and certainly it was impressed upon me the dangers of this kind of mind set. As for the point you make about which education to choose, well I was about to ask the same question. It's like some bloke down the pub picking a bottle of wine, or an experienced vintner. That is the problem people have with educators. How do you pick a good one if indeed you need to be educated??????????
  3. John, I'm not entirely sure I know what you are getting at by saying my response is curious. Some and in fact many people do not have the same ability to question and strip away as you put it as others do. They look at a candle and they see a candle. However, another person may look at a candle and see what the open was, whether there was high volume, whether key prices were rejected or broken, whether the action was in response to economic releases or global events and even what the structure was within that specific candle(i.e. on a smaller timeframe did the action make a double top for example?).
  4. Market profile and other techniques can and are applied to intraday and longer timeframe trading. I kind of agree with johnson in that if a trader only has 60-90mins a day and is not what some might call proficient, wouldn't that time be best used to learn rather than blindly trade? Also, as steve points out, markets are global. If you can only trade for 1hr because the markets of the country you live in are open while you are at work, either trade a different market(eg if you are in US trade Japanese markets) or swing trade over the course of multiple days.
  5. Again, I agree and this is a very important point. But people must realise what they need to focus on. Learning every technical indicator and watching several markets every day is not going to make you a trading guru. It will probably help if you have what it takes anyway, but sometimes it can also hinder. Understanding what the indicator is doing and why. Why there is a pop in market X at 11:23 every day. That helps. But still, this is only part of becoming a great trader.
  6. It is true that there are many rubbish strategies out there. However, a rubbish strategy or a great strategy alike can be given the midas touch by a great trader. Either one however, can be applied ineffectually by a should we say, less than aware trader. This is by no means to say that some published strategies cannot be a con. I do think though that when people attempt to apply someone else's strategy and fail, it is much easier emotionally for them to blame the author.
  7. I believe it helps to know yourself better in all walks of life, trading included. However, I think it is more important to be able to recognise your current state and to adjust your trading based on this. Sometimes this means to subdue you own emotions, sometimes it means to escalate your trading if you are in 'the zone'(I use that term generically although I am aware I mentioned the MD book a couple of posts ago).
  8. You misread the market, get over excited or over cautious. You could trade when you are a little tired or maybe sick. Perhaps the biggest thing is if you go through a change in your personal circumstances. You have a new baby or even get a divorce. You could just get really unlucky a number of times and start to question your reasoning. You might then get a little loose and to borrow a poker term, 'go on tilt' -which I can assure you markets like ES can do no matter how much work you do. Experienced and wise traders can deal with these things and prevent them from affecting their trading overall. They isolate the issues. However, to another trader, this could be the start of a downward spiral into a trading rut or even a blown up account.
  9. johnw, you are very right but also very wrong. Focus and preparation are the most important things, but there are also psychological facets to trading. It's all very well and good when you are trading well, but when things start to go wrong, that's when there are potential issues which can adversely affect your trading results. Actually, many traders first run into emotional problems when they first experience a run of good profits. I believe dismissing other aspects to trading is simply naive. If people were always able to perform to 100% of their abilities all the time, why doesn't a soccer player score a goal every free kick? Or an American football player score with every field goal attempt? Why do we talk about 'form' of the very same players? Seriously. However, people do tend to go way over the top in trying to understand the nature of trading. This is human nature. Take a task, dissect it/learn it, reproduce results consistently. That is what we look for. Not everyone has the benefit of experience or innate ability to recognise that trading is just not like everyday life. An edge is the best we hope for and when applied in context to current market activity, there is a variable probability range of the trade being successful. This is where successful traders then employ money management skills. Not voodoo. Just sensible methods to mitigate strategy risk over a large number of trades. If you want to be a profitable trader, learn to read the market. Take a number of setups which you think can be profitable more times than not(or at least have a massive risk:reward ratio) then apply sound money management. If you do this and do it well, the psychological difficulties you encounter should be lessened and if you still have problems with them, either read a book like Trading in the Zone or give up.
  10. Do any of you guys use 'harmonic' type trading setups? The Gartley 222 is one I believe and there are others. This website seems to have some good information (although it is about the author selling products). http://harmonictrader.com Nonetheless, there is plenty of free info provided. I was wondering which markets this is effective in if any and whether traders find the setups easy to spot or if they need to comb multiple markets looking for these setups. Would be interested to hear any thoughts on this.
  11. A mediocre book dealing with trading psychology. Ari Kiev advises traders to deal with emotions. Emotions are a part of human nature and it is impossible to eliminate emotions completely. Therefore, it is best to understand how emotions affect our trading behavior and do our best to control it. Overall, I found this book rather simple. I was not satisfied by the material covered in the book. Alot of the content is nothing new and redundant. Perhaps traders may find his first book better.
  12. Steidlmayer is a genious. This comprehensive book on market profile is one of my all-time favorite trading books. For those new to market profile, I do recommend reading Dalton's, Mind Over Markets first as it goes into detail on various profile types. However, Steidlmayer brings alot of good insights that can help the new and seasoned trader. It is recommended that you have a basic understanding of market profile before reading this book. "Participating in the markets can only develop your trading skills. You need to become a part of the markets, to know the state of the markets at any given time, and most importantly, to know yourself. You need to be patient, confident, and mentally tough." - Steidlmayer - Pick this up... you wont regret it.
  13. Hi iwshares, Welcome to TL. I'm sure you'll gain a great deal from the website. I can't help on the backtesting software, but if you take a look at the Automated Trading forum Automated Trading - Traders Laboratory - Professional Traders Community I am sure there will be someone willing to help you.
  14. As $5DAW states, the indicators are all momentum based. As such, wouldn't it be a better strategy to implement on a higher timeframe? I don't look at MACD/RSI/Stochastics etc. so I couldn't say that you are missing this or missing that to make it a great setup. However, I would definitely think that specific price 'levels' would be beneficial to look at in combination with tentative momentum/trend shifts. I also like the 'top down' approach to certain strategies. Simply entering both long and short trades of this nature to a market say in an overall downtrend is less likely to be as profitable as just short trades may have been(unless the trend is coming to an end of course). On the question raised about the definition of an indicator, this is my take. Price is price. History of price is history of price. Volume is volume and time is time. None of which are indicators. An indicator is used to better display current market behaviour and potential for change. Most of us can look at a plain chart and get an idea of what may happen next based on their own experience and interpretation. However, it's not price/price history itself that is telling us what may happen, but our experiences of past behaviour. So, indicators predict future price movement, traders themselves predict future price movement, price/time/volume show historical price/time/volume.
  15. Trading to me is never boring. It is a constant challenge and so it is addictive. I find that there is always something new and markets are adapting. The difference if(or when) I had billions, is I would chose to trade differently and to pursue the things I enjoy outside of trading without thinking twice.
  16. Does anyone actually know the rules on publishing data?
  17. Just so you know, the difference between a limit order and a market order is what it sounds like. Limit is limited to the price you place. Either you get filled at that price or you don't. Market orders mean that you take the best possible market price at the time your order reaches the exchange. If you have a buy market stop order at a certain price, then when the price is touched you will execute a market order to buy at the lowest offered price. In volatile markets this can be an issue as price changes very quickly.
  18. Ah but it did work I see! Nag them for sure though!! Lol.
  19. Cool. Let me know what you make of it!
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