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TheNegotiator

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator

  1. Hi there agun! Welcome to TL! I am sure you'll find lots of great knowledge and help here at TL. May I suggest to you to take a look at our recent interview with Rob Booker, a seasoned forex pro and published author. The interview can be found in the following link and it's completely free!! Rob Booker Interview
  2. So in your experience Siuya, are there any specific traits which portend poor suitability for trading? I can certainly think of a few. I agree with you about whether someone ends up becoming a good trader tends to be less predictable at least on the metrics we would use to judge them prior to their training. But surely you wouldn't employ and train people on a random basis would you???
  3. Spot on! Whatever you read and whoever you listen to, it is you that pulls the trigger. No one else. Resources of any kind can help point you in the right direction and even enlighten you to some truths in trading. But unless you take full responsibility to make your knowledge work, the fact is you will be more than likely to fail.
  4. Really? Fear is very real in trading. Fear of losing money. Fear of being wrong. Fear that your strategy is ill-conceived. Fear that your account won't stand a string of losses. I think it's pretty clear that these are also dangers. However, fear doesn't help us at the time of placing a trade. It is pretty negative in the majority of cases. It can be a great motivator to do the work outside of placing individual trades. MM I am happy that you seemingly have conquered your trading fears or even that they were never part of how you approached the markets. However, fear is certainly real and so are dangers when it comes to trading. Perhaps not in the sense of life or death, but they are real.
  5. Just one last reminder for anyone to attend the London Traders Expo this Friday and Saturday 8/9th April 2011. It's free to attend so why not pop in and say hello to us? To register, click on the link at the bottom of my signature(one above the twitter icon) and follow the instructions you are given.
  6. If people lose money consistently with their strategies which have been previously profitable, they end up being paranoid then fearful. Generally, fear and greed imo has much to do with the market as they are the underlying drivers for the markets' existence. Fear in trading can be very direct and can be nothing to do with anything that you have previously experienced in life. Fear is a natural human emotion. It's true, fear does not play the same role in trading as it does in life, but it's certainly not an illusion.
  7. You seriously think fear in trading is an illusion?
  8. Indeed. Either way I would say low volatility is not great for scalping. Unless of course you are talking about markets like say crude or the dax.
  9. I believe fear is a by-product of low confidence in your trading strategy and/or the trader's ability to execute it. Greed is loss of objectivity and the human instinct of over provisioning for leaner times.
  10. Are you confusing low volatility with low movement? I have to say, I do think in markets where for whatever reason, the volatility is elevated, there tends to be more opportunity for scalping. I'd say this is generally because traders are quicker to enter and exit trades believing they'll miss the price otherwise. Plus there is more disagreement and uncertainty of fair price. Also, when volatility is high, the natural back and forth trade in a market is also higher - which is where a good number of scalping trades will come from. Given the nature of this type of trade, where you have to enter and exit pretty quickly in a good number of trades, it is essential to have very little lag between what you see on the screen and where the market is currently trading. If not, the market can easily go offside by your normal stop before you even see it. This is whether you are talking in terms of price extremes or any scalp in between.
  11. Hi carltonp, First of all, welcome to TL! If I understand what you are saying correctly, you have made about $1000 pre-commissions. If that' the case, and your commissions are not putting you under water, it's not bad at all. Most noobs are expected to lose money to begin with. One thing I'd definitely note though is the that although you are on the face of it trading profitably, a 1:1 risk:reward ratio is probably not going to be especially great in the long run when you are only taking 1 trade in 5 as overall profit(3 win -2 lose). So I think it's worth taking a look at your strategy again and analysing whether or not your winning trades usually continue in the same direction and what the normal MAE (max adverse excursion)of those winners is so you are efficiently placing your stop at the point where you are wrong. In the case of where you take profit, it may or may not be appropriate to scale some of your position off in order to let it run further but with lower risk and trail your stop. However, this of course depends on the market you trade, the strategy you employ and your commission structure. The other thing is you should really keep updating your analyses as 46 imo is probably a bit of a small sample size.
  12. Let's just say you are right next to the exchange you are trading. If you also then have the absolute best pc equipment, set up in exactly the right way, then you still have to deal with your own reaction time. But what about the algos? Some exchanges give algos different(faster) connectivity and extremely preferable fees. So an algo can cheaply scalp before you even react in all likelihood. Maybe you can account for this and try to take more than a couple of ticks each time and for sure it varies with different markets and different exchanges. However, one thing is absolutely certain in my mind. Scalping is not like it used to be and should be considered very carefully if you are going to try it.
  13. Thanks to everyone who attended. I'm sure you found the webinar to be insightful! We have now got a replay of the full webinar available at the following link:- Rob Booker Interview
  14. Lol! I believe plans are imperative to trading well. But where does the ability to follow the plan come from? When I first started trading at a firm, this guy always used to say to me "follow your plan". I honestly don't believe he really understood why this was important and he was almost certainly just parroting it from somewhere else. However, it is crucial to be able to follow your plan. So what is the key to it? Well, I'll steal an analogy Tams used earlier about driving and take it one step further. Planning your trading is like reading a map and planning a journey before you take a long road trip. What if you plan your journey and halfway through when you aren't sure if you're lost or not, you're informed that the map you planned the trip on was actually a piece of artwork done by a monkey? Or more likely, you rushed out after taking a quick look at your map? My point is, if the map isn't studied or worse still it's fundamentally flawed, how will you have the confidence to actually follow the plan in the future? So it may seem obvious to many of you and shock horror, actually most of the important stuff which you will learn as a trader is, but actually having a good plan is more than likely imo to be the critical factor in whether you follow it or not. So research and study your data. Analyse and test your plan. PUT THE WORK IN. Then if you have any other issues after that, it's much easier to go back to your work and see that actually just following your plan really should make you money. Btw, I liked very much what edabreu said about the probability of the next trade:-
  15. Wisdom comes with ability to learn, humble attitude and experience. To consistently trade well and make money over the long term, you must be wise.
  16. I tend to use fibonacci ret/ext on the IB and the whole day. I enter a trade purely on a fibo though. I use them in 2 ways. 1- to concrete in a structural framework and 2- for a guide on the relative strength of the market session.
  17. Hi deerhunting, It's definitely a learning curve! It's important though to recognise that even when you are a seasoned veteran, you are likely to have losing days still although the ratio of winning to losing days hopefully will increase! The important thing is to manage your trading effectively enough to mitigate those losing days.
  18. I'm pretty sure you can get apps on android/win mobile/iphone to record what what you say and then either the same app or another to convert it to text.
  19. Hi Selvan & Keith, I hope you enjoy yourself here at TL and benefit from our forums. If you are involved in either directly answering questions or asking them, remember it helps others too! As for your bad month Keith, well sometimes that does happen as I am sure you are well aware. There is a great psychology thread here though if you are interested:- http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/your-mama-doesnt-trade-so-wise-9278.html
  20. Er, no $5DAW it is not a trick question. For a noob who wants to start trading forex products, I believe it is a valid consideration. Of course if you are scalping, liquidity becomes much more relevant, but to start to learning how to trade, conservation of capital is a key aspect of survival. Products like the contracts I mentioned offer a smaller capital risk per contract.
  21. We love your rambling Ingot!! In all seriousness though, I believe your critique of the site is incisive in understanding what we hope to achieve in the forums. Thanks for pointing this out for others and long may this culture continue!!
  22. Either I have misunderstood what it is you are saying or you have a different definition of harmonic oscillation. Or perhaps you have just not revealed the nature of your oscillator. As I understand it, harmonics are based on geometric patterns which tend to repeat over time. Are your indicators geometric but based on volume and/or other variables? From what you have said so far, I am far from understanding you clearly. Also, why couldn't these patterns be good predictors on a volume based chart for example? That would factor in volume geometrically. Or even delta could be used...
  23. In what way are these displaying 'real' harmonics and the site I posted doesn't? Would they be more realistic if they based the candles on volume/ticks rather than time?
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