MightyMouse

15% is great. No one knows what will happen next and we can all debate what just happened. Expect to have losing days, weeks, months, and years in your trading career. 40k is a low amount to trade with. With a 15% gain in a few weeks, I suspect you are taking on a bit too much risk for your account size if that is all the funds you have to commit to trading. If you have a lot more funds than 40k, then that is a different story.

A lot of ifs. Find a period of time that it didn't perform as tested. Then, when found, decide whether you want to leverage or trade the strategy at all. If you can't find a period of time that doesn't perform as tested, you do not know how to rigorously test data. In this case, get it over with. Max leverage and get rich or go home broke in the shortest amount of time possible.

Yes, I have been either the last or very close to the last sucker on a few occasions, but that was long ago. I have also been caught in a few squeezes which are a horror to experience. Most notably, I was short ICOS when they announced results of final stage testing of Cialis. Later bought by eli lilly. More recently, there were "days" where I felt like I was the only sucker.

Maybe. For me rule 1 is: a market goes up until the last sucker bought and a market goes down until the last sucker sold. I do not know, but partly from intuition and partly because you are asking, I would say no. I would also say that oil or PM need not go down just because supply is increasing, given market dynamics. And, as price goes down there is less and less incentive to explore for more supply. Since these numbers are government controlled, they are bullshit anyway, used as political tools when it is convenient and a texas republican is in the whitehouse. I thin you should change your name from "ZDO" to "The ZDO". You have earned the solitary distinction.

If the perma bulls ever get replaced by perma bears, you will get your $5000 or $10,000 gold. But, for now, there is more reason to be a permabull. As long as the mainstream sucker keeps buying, gold will go lower and lower and lower. No idea whatsoever on the timing nor the depth, but pretty confident of the direction until the aforementioned. If one needs to ask, a sucker buys low with hopes of selling high but sells lower instead.

Gold is stuck within the range set in July: 1175- 1072 ( october gold) which is a pretty big range. If you wanted to be short, you can get short at any time, depending on your entry strategy, but expect to be whipsawed a bit and consider adding to your short if it drops below the 1072 price level. I would stop seeking short entry if price rises above 1175. No longs for me and I have no idea where price will be by the end of the month.

The biggest catalyst is when you wife finds out your girlfriend is pregnant.

Good article. The more they do, the more of a mess they get us into. But, it does lead to extraordinary opportunities in the markets for those who are patient and watching.

Everything you are looking for is ex post facto. If you want info you can use to enter a trade, then you'll need to focus on where supply is or might be, and not where you think it might of been.

Zdo, A. This is a trading site. B. Fundamentally speaking, my current guestimate is that US debt is worth about 75% to 80% of its current traded, and stated.value and it continues to shrink. US Debt and anything valued in USD will take a hit. I have no guess on how long the charade will continue. C Thanks for the emoticon respect. I appreciate it.

This market is a trader's paradise. A trader needs to rethink his strategy if he is experiencing drawdowns longer for than few hours with this volatility.

Aha. Somehow I missed the winkies. Please don't use my error as an invitation to add more winkies next time to adjust to my disability. Two dimensional text is a poor form of communication.

This thread is a cemetery of bullish commentary.

It is an analysis that lines up with your line of thinking; hence, it is a "good analysis of gold". I would think a good analysis of gold would be an essay with a negative hypothesis. A bull thinks the price will be rising. A bear thinks the opposite How can gold be worth $_____? Any price can be inserted in the slot. The more reasons, per the article, the less likely it is correct. A: When will the price of gold be worth $(current price) X 2? B: When will the price of gold be $(current price) /2? If you think B will occur before A, then you are a bear. If you think A will occur before B, then you are a Bull. The price of gold can go up for reasons that are not included in that essay you posted. Would you still call the analysis good if that happened? What is more important: getting the direction right or getting the analysis right?

Seems like a nice bullish article on gold. The type of essay one wants to read if he is licking his wounds from holding a gold position. Or, possibly a good article to read if one is astute and notices that gold has dropped in price and likes to buy low in anticipation of selling higher. Good read or bad read, it does not change the fact that there are not enough buyers buying gold and willing to hold it long enough. Sure, someone is buying it, but eventually the new buyers, who bought low, sell lower because they didn't buy low enough. They are not the committed buyers needed to provide support to the price of gold. So, the price will continue to drop. Gold is a commodity and will act as a commodity acts.

#1303 #1035 #943 #835 #703 #524 #513 #494 #464 #396 #386 #384 #313 #86 #78 Just a selection of posts indicating my rather short bias throughout this thread. I do not ever recall a long thought. In fact, I have not had a long trade in gold since 2011 (I think). All gold (commodities) trades have been short.

Gold is the new Silver

Most were thinking it even as it fell.

Fundementally, CBs are fighting deflation; traces of a global deleveraging which still continues.Gold is a good place to be when there is inflation and not deflation. Technically, there is too, too much supply still out there for a bottom to be put in place. Any pop up in price gets met with more supply. As long as there are traders/investors that are willing to sell at the lows, well. My opinion is we will see a collapse in PM and Energy prices before we see higher prices, given that the same players who brought us the 2008 melt down and now heavily involved in both. Stay tuned for imploding hedge funds. I am pretty confident gold will see $500 and if we hit extremes, $280. Just guessing

Getting rid of guns would not get rid of crime or violence. Assuming you mean innocent and unnecessary death, then a more effective way of stopping innocent death would be to ban swimming pools when you consider the numbers involved. The issue with either swimming pools or guns is the responsible use of each.

"because"? "cause"? garbage in, garbage out

Everything has been flattened by central planning. Smoothed out, or optimized economies are the perfect breeding ground for cataclysmic economic events like we experienced less than a decade ago.

Shouldn't play in a commodities market unless one has a fundamental understanding of all the factors that impact supply and demand.

I have mixed feelings about the framework Ray Dalio suggests in this clip. Worth a watch if you haven't seen it.

Everyone who has been trading or investing long enough knows, at least intuitively, that markets are in a bubble phase. It would be great if we could time the inevitable burst, since we would at least be able to save a fortune, if not make a fortune. I would like this thread to include scholarly, academic, or personally written articles containing any information that might be useful now or down the road. The articles could be about timing, valuation, bull and bear markets, articles claiming we are not in a bubble, etc. The articles could be on any market, not just the S&P or the currency or commodities markets. I'll begin with a decent article I came across in Forbes written by Jesse Colombo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2015/04/05/disaster-is-inevitable-when-the-two-decade-old-stock-bubble-bursts/