MightyMouse

This video will help clear things up. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k]Quantitative Easing Explained - YouTube[/ame]

Don't mistake my post as saying debt is Ok or no big deal. No matter which way you look at it, we are acting irresponsibly. I completely agree that at some point we are going to be forced to end the music. I do, however, suggest that the band won't get paid as much as they were promised.

Ingot54, Most corporations in the S&P are multinational corporations. A great deal of what they produce does not begin and end in the USA. Forcing money into markets (via holding interest rates lower) increases stock prices and capital ratios which allow corporations to borrow more. The can borrow to refinance old debt at lower rates ( increasing earnings), they can borrow to invest in factories, which is not happening in the USA; hence, the stubborn UE numbers in the US. The improving earnings is certainly good, but it alone won't provide us the stimulus that we need to get back on track. I think Thalestrader was referring to Fed purchases of securities and not direct stimulus money. As above, the purchases increase demand for govt bonds and mortgage bonds and hold down interest rates. We do need a cooperative congress to address the much needed fiscal stimulus that would, yes, increase debt, but put money to work in the right places to provide the stimulus to improve economic conditions. In very few other countries can you be called poor and have cable tv, a cell phone, a 50 inch tv, an xbox and $120 Nikes and have all the healthcare you need to save you from your poor eating habits. The US is a great place to be poor. Throughout the history of mankind you can count on one hand the times that govt debt has been paid off ( not refinanced or defaulted to a lower amount). Given our record in foreign affairs, why would you ever think that the US would set a precedence and be of the few to pay off the debts it owes? It is all smoke and mirrors or, at this level, fog and haze. MM

A valid technical pattern that you might identify that backtests to have a positive expectancy is a chart formation or data formation that occurs when certain traders take positions and leave themselves vulnerable to loss. For a certain reason, when you actually trade the pattern you end up losing. As such the best trade, then, is to find those patterns and trade against those traders who are trying to take advantage of those patterns and absorb, as profit, the loss they are willing to take.

It is a lot easier to trade markets when one is assured that his $5 billion investment in a failing company such as GS will be supported by the federal reserve bank and that his investment in preferred stock will pay him a 10% dividend plus options to purchase the stock at 115. I wouldn't call that either FA or TA; instead, I would call it insider trading or some other fitting term. Recall that GS made bad bets with AIG who could not make good on its bet. GS should have failed along side AIG, but was supported by American taxpayers who provided AIG the funds to pay back GS. .

You would think that such a distance would allow professional investors to be less emotional., but anyone with low self esteem will get attached to a trade or to trading results. "American Greed" aired on CNBC every night is chock full of money managers who needed to create ponzi schemes to maintain their ability to attract money to their funds.

I meant corporate earnings in my post. Eanings have improved. to stimulate the economy in a meaningful way, Congress has to do more than try to win the next election

There is an uncanny and positive relationship between earnings and corresponding stock prices. The above quote by denning would be true if stocks were rising without an improvement in earnings, but that is not the case; earnings continue to improve. Fed policy is to add support to asset prices which makes it easier for corporations and individuals to borrow money, refinance, etc.Ideally, with higher asset prices, corporations can more easily borrow, invest in factories, plants, and create jobs. Lots of room for improvement if the US has a congress that is willing to work with the White House. There is plenty of capital available to those who have the ability to pay it back

Wow you are really something, you co-manage a fund that only did a shitty 15% last month and you are building out an office building ( which is just an awesomely stupid use of funds for someone who earns 15% on a shitty month) so I extend my congratulations even further than before. Keep it coming. To me this is similar to playing a simple game of tetris.

Grayson is really the fool. He is asking Bernanke elementary questions that he really should know the answers to. The fed swaps currencies to avoid having to print the money to pay the foreign central banks. The fed has been granted these rights and it is an oversight of congress and not the fed to be dealing in such large sums of money. Asking the fed chairman if the fed should have the rights granted to it is silliness in my not so humble opinion. My statement is by no means a defense or endorsement of the actions of the US fed reserve or of Bernanke.

What would I pass on? There are many things to consider, but several of the most important that I would consider are the strength of my offensive line, distance to first down, the hands and ability of my receivers, and the time left on the clock. If the conditions were right, then I would certainly try to pass on 1st and or 2nd down. In most cases, though, I would not pass if we had 1-4 yards for a first down and we were on 3rd down.

In the US, if you look very closely, and are a business owner, there are numerous benefits that exist and that are being drafted to encourage expansion and to stimulate growth. Benefits are tax credits and breaks, low interest rates, and outright grants depending on your industry. If you are not engaged and continue to sit on your ass and listen to those who would rather see the US fail, then your world will suck no matter how good it is. And, if you can't get credit, or want to continue to do the same thing that you did for the last decades, then your misery is no one's fault but your own. It is just like the markets. If you sit there and pine that your old set up no longer works and you wish it still did, your days in the market are over. Your bones will be picked clean by traders who know how to adapt.

It is from the embers of bad economic times that growth and prosperity emerge. I won't fall short of calling anyone stupid who thinks that current US policy is being shaped so that things get worse. Whoever is teaching you this is someone who either doesn't know how to play the game, is disengaged, or is deliberately attempting to mislead you. Misinformation is costly.

You judge the usa by the # of people on food stamps?

No offense. Your analysis seems to have come from watching cable news while drinking pints of beer with angry conservatives, occasionally distracted by a nice ass. The fiscal cliff is a tool that will be used to force changes on an uncooperative congress. It will look ugly, feel ugly, and result in an awesome low to take long term longs from in the equity markets. Taxes will be raised for a segment of the population, but the well represented will be given a peace offering to offset the tax increase. The increased tax will be absorbed by the poorly represented. The sooner congress agrees to increase taxes, the sooner the the low will be put in. No doubt this market can be shorted for the next weeks. The bull market of 2009 to 2012 has shown no signs of ending. A dip is not a sign of ending. It's just a dip. One needs to review how a bull market ends to make a call that a bull market is ending. Interest rates remain low. Inflation is not a factor, and earnings are stable to growing. It is easy or safe to assume that there will be further earnings growth. Oddly enough, the market will rise again in spite of higher tax rates. The most fruitful part of bar room discussion are the distractions.

I would guess that you were probably right that it was a short entry on multiple time frames, even though it continued to rise into the 30's. Just because it didn't work that time doesn't mean it won't work. Price hit my hard stop so I had no choice. In the long run, my action on that particular trade salvaged profits since it would have continued higher to my BE and worse. Other times when I have engaged in such an exit I have wasted profits. If it were always crystal clear, I would probably find something else to do. I agree that it is market dependent and will add that it is also timeframe dependent. Es exhibits trends/moves in higher/wider time frames. The shorter time frames and certainly during the RTH, ES is chronically mean reverting.

Just Fucking Awesome!!!!

It is 50/50 after the 9th 99th, 999th,..., etc. But, I would bet on tails coming out next if it just came out 99 times.

Gold is targeting 1750 where a violation will call for a move to 1795 and possibly up to 1850, or it could find support or run to 1640 or 1600. Seems like you have located surgically pinpointed approximately a 350 point range. There is no way you can be wrong unless gold skips trading at 1750 and moves directly up to 1850 without trading between 1750 and 1795, or it could trade at 1750 and skip trading the entire area of 1750 to 1600. If it did something crazy like that then you would be wrong. You might want to try your hand at the weather instead.

The opposite, sort of. Our ability to reason also gives us the ability to be irrational. If someone cannot make money trading, It does not mean that "fixing" himself will help him make money trading. "Fixing" himself might help, but it isn't the only solution and it might not be the right solution. I am sure there are plenty perfectly rational people who cannot make money trading. I am also certain that there are plenty irrational people who do make money trading. I might argue that a profitable trader could stop trading if he "fixed" himself. On the other hand a dog doesn't reason so he doesn't have to think about being a dog. Instinctively, he just goes about his dog's life.

Our advantage to all other species on this planet is our ability to reason. It is also our ability to reason that creates bad traders.

Tiger, if you feel the need to keep the coins, them so be it.

In the spring I will be conducting a coin flipping training course titled, " Coin Flipping for Retail Coin Flippers". Send me your resume and I will let you know if you are qualified to participate.

TA runs into a problem when you take time into account. A guy loses his job in 2007. He gets his severance and opens a book in October 2007 and reads that when the 8 month ma moves above or below the 21 month ma, it is a solid buy or sell signal. So, the 8 moves below the 21 and he shorts the S&P at some point in November 2007. All the expert traders on TL would never take such a trade since everyone knows the MA crossover doesn't work. But, this guy isn't exposed to this expert advice and he holds onto his short until the 8 crosses back over the 21. Well, that doesn't happen until sometime in March 2008. He cashes in quite a nice gain. He decides to take his new girlfriend on an extended vacation and later decides to never trade again since when he comes back he gets another job. A novice trader with an econometric background opens a book in 2007 and reads about MAs and back tests an assortment or strategies over a number of timeframes. He concludes that there is no evidence that trading MA crossovers is a valid strategy. By February 2008 he has yet to make a penny. His old girlfriend is sick of paying his way and leaves him, but he is content since he is close to finding the holy grail and he has become an expert on TL. I know homebuilders who, for a very long time, made insane amounts of money in the Northeast of the USA. If you were to look at a home price index, you would see that they made money while prices were rising. If you took an MA of the home price index you would also see that there was an MA crossover. Some, by random luck, were able to walk away with most of it. Random luck being that they sold the last home built just as the market began to collapse. Others who were either not so lucky or late to the game lost everything. If a savvy investor back tested the housing market, he would never get involved and either never make money or never lose money because he would conclude that in the long run you can't forecast future housing prices by using a MA. In time all things work and in time all things stop working. If in fact you keep doing the same thing over and over and over, you will eventually lose. It may take a lifetime or several lifetimes, but nothing lasts forever. Making money involves risk. You will never get to make significant money in a market, no matter which market, without a significant risk of loss. You are a trader or investor if you are willing to take risks to make money.You are no longer a trader or investor when you are afraid to take losses. You will never ever be able to figure out beforehand if the next trade is going to make money or not because the last time the strategy worked, may be the last time it works for a while. You will just have to take the risk. I will posit that anything to the contrary is just nonsense.

Daytrading: I love when I have winning days. The euphoric feeling of winning is what draws me to trading in the first place. I would never attempt to deny myself of such a reward. In the end, my gains won't be life changing, so I really do not give a shit if I win. I hate trading when I lose. I get pissed off to the point of wanting to smash shit if it is an exceptionally bad day. My desire is to win. Anything less is an irritant. In the end, my losses will never amount to much, so I really don't give a shit if I lose. I know I am ruled by my ego. It is foolish for me to pretend otherwise. I feel that it is a waste of time to fool myself into thinking anything other than the above. In my particular case it is best for me to feel it, express it, release it as best as I can, and move onto the next trade. Pretending or bottling feelings or thoughts is just not my thing.