|Ultimate Trade Analyzer Discussion for Ultimate Trade Analyzer owners to share results, questions and other feedback.|
|10-15-2010, 03:39 PM||#9|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
Wow, TJ. SST putting up some impressive results with TF. I've been following your crude posts too. What a run. 36 out of the last 38 sessions winning? 8 winning weeks since the SST's debut. That's incredible! I can see it as I visually scan the chart you use with the SST. Nice work!!
|10-16-2010, 08:58 PM||#10|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
Tiobingo I can't speak highly enough about fxdd and the support they have provided. Not to mention there 3-8% bonus's. I do not have platform or execution issues at all (MT4). I have been trading since 2006 with them and I have tried just about every broker out there. fxdd is hands down the best. I also follow Greg Michalowaski video commentary and He gives a very basic chart explanation that is easy to follow and understand and he always responds to emails.
|10-18-2010, 08:37 PM||#11|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
That's great Guy. Thanks again. I recently opened up an stock and option account with think or swim and just funded a forex account with them too. I think I'll go ahead and open up a small fxdd accnt too, just to have a way to trade the same pair but with a different timeframe. I'd like to be able to swing trade in one position but also have the flexibility to take day trades which might go in the opposite direction so it seems that having two fx accnts is necessary for a well rounded trade plan/portfolio.
|10-18-2010, 10:37 PM||#12|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
|10-19-2010, 11:42 PM||#13|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
Guywood, I have traded futures through tradestation for quite a while now with very few issues. The nice part about having an account with them is it saves on the monthly platform fee. I have also traded futures through thinkorswim but feel more comfortable with Tradestations tools (although thinkorswim has come a long way on the active trader tools over the past year or so).
If I was forced to make a change I would consider interactive brokers as well. The universal account is very appealing to me.
|03-04-2011, 11:50 PM||#14|
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Russell EMini Results -- Updated
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Russell eMini; Tough Week but Still Going Strong..
Russell eMini traders were put to the test this week. It's been a long time since we had three tough sessions in a row. What's important when dealing with markets like we've seen these last few days is to take a step back and actually put things in perspective.
First of all, a good argument can be made, and should be seriously considered to either stand down, or limit your trading sessions when Bernanke is testifying before congress. It's true that some days will work out fine, but others will be very difficult. Also, the day before the grand daddy of economic reports, Non-Farm Payroll is another day to either sit on your hands, or, limit your trading. If you can't get it done in a few trades, you could be asking for bigger problems if you keep on trading. If you don't do your own backtesting, you're not going to have this perspective and you won't be in a position to make the best trade decisions.
When creating a tradeplan, it is important to consider these things. Using the UTA helps a lot. You can label your trades with one of the filter columns with something that indicates these types of sessions. You can backtest for them or just track the results in a second UTA file. Deciding to trade or not to trade on these tough sessions can make a big difference. No matter what approach you decide to take, don't expect perfection. It doesn't exist and you'll find that every decision is a tradeoff and has consequences.
Let's say you took all the trades through thick or thin, Bernanke or no. My UTA results showed that we took a tough step back this week, with - 22.8 points, possibly our worst week since going live with the SST last April. Some traders ended quite differently. Maybe you took the setup that happened one minute before our start time and was a big winner. Maybe you're using Ninja Trader and had slightly different data and consequently, slightly different trade setups that might have made a big difference. We missed money mgt and a risk free position on more than one losing trade this week. Tough break, but if it's at all possible, it WILL happen at some point. missing risk free stop moves by one tick IS possible and DOES happen. How are you going to avoid it? Don't even try! Also, as discussed on the TF tradeplan page, trading the pm session also would have improved those results. But let's just go with the -22.8 point drawdown, for now.
In the grand scheme of things, the forest from the trees perspective, let's look at where we came from and where we are going. In TradersLab, I started a thread on the TF eMini in our sponsored forum where I posted the equity curve up to that point in time. Here's the curve as shown on TL. One of the things you'll notice is that at that point in time (10/14/10), we were hitting all time equity highs, a tad over +330 net points, or $33,000 (gross). We were winning a solid 67% and had taken about 720 trades since going live with the what at that time was called, "Nooner," later to become known as the Seven Summits Trader, "SST." The year ended even better. We maintained our 67% winning percentage and ended the year with + 462.6 points; $46,260. Not bad, huh? The equity curve looks the same as the TL curve above only this time ending at a substantially higher water mark. TF Equity Curve 2010 Total
It's easy to look at and marvel at such a result. In fact, it's easy to downright daydream about it and wish that you took all those trades. What's lost in such a snapshot though is the actual human element of experiencing all those trades, in time, month after month, week after week, day after day, trade after trade... When we look at such a snapshot, what is lost on most people, is the actual time and effort that went into creating such a result. It didn't come easy! It escaped a lot of people who, for reasons that haunt most traders, along the way dropped off the winning track that led to the +462.6 net points by year's end. Perhaps they joined and began trading at the beginning of a tough session or two. If they didn't do any preliminary foundational work -- I call it, the 'ditch digging of trading,' then most likely they have no vision of the overall forest, and infact, are lost amongst the trees.
Falling trees! Think of each tree as a trade. The forest is the equity curve. With a 67% winning percentage, you have to be willing and able to sacrifice 1/3 of the trees in your forest so that your forest can grow 2/3 larger as a result. It's the two steps forward, one step back, stairstepping equity curve that climbs upwards and to the right. We look at it. We marvel at it. We want it. But can we endure the stairstepping? That does include the steps backwards, by the way. In real time. You can't divorce the step backwards from the equation or it would not be possible to get the two steps forward. That's just the way it works. The one step backwards is part of the winning formula. Why is it that so many traders trip and fall over this critical concept?
But what if you DID start at the beginning of some tough sessions AND you didn't have the overall broader vision. You'd probably quit. That's what people do. I can't blame them. Murphy's Law is alive and well and the newbie always lets Murphy in the door, the moment they begin taking live, real money trades. It happend to me, on the first day I ever called a live trade in a trade room, April 21st, 2008. I lost -1.7 points. I had over 60 'would-be' members in the room that day. I remember like it was yesterday. The 2nd day, however, only 25 or so, showed up. We then launched a run that gained nearly +170 points by the end of the year. Ironically, on my anniversay, April 21st, 2009, we gained + 1.7 points. Go figure..
I look back on my history of calling Russell eMini trades in a live trade room. I'm approaching my 3rd year anniversary and I can tell you, I have logged some serious screen time. I have literally called live, with my members hanging on my every word, I would estimate, over 3500 Russell trades. That's a lot, right? (And that doesn't even include the many other markets I called live.) While that screen time and live market experience has paid off in many ways for me and my trading in general, and while I have a good sense of what's happening in the market on any given session, I still have to live at the right edge of the chart, not really knowing what will happen next. Like everybody else! The market continues to perplex, befuddle, bemuse, fascinate, exilerate, frustrate and all the other '...ates' you can think of, and tomorrow's session will be no different. That's the world we live in as traders. And yet, when it happens -- or rather, as it continually happens, over and over again, most traders continue to be emotionally attached to the outcome of the trade they're in, without the greater understanding of how their method of trading is producing over the big picture; the 921 trades from "April 5th thru Dec 30th" picture.
Do the few tough sessions or 4 trade losing streaks really mean that much when put into the context of what a trading business should really look and feel like? I guess if you are just starting, and your first few trades take you backwards, it would matter. Especially if you're under capitalized, unpracticed, don't really understand the system, don't have the bigger vision to know what to expect, have't experienced the losses and then the charging equity breakouts to new profit levels despite the losses, etc.. If you haven't dug your trading ditches, you have know way to create your trade business foundation. So what are you building on? Can you stay with the program in the face of some preliminary tough sessions? Without a foundation? no way! Or at least, I seriously doubt it. Whether it be this system or some other, no one can stay with something that they have no real understanding of.. No foundation for.. No higher level vision.. What happens is that they wind up fretting the trade they're in.
They begin chasing performance, always behind the curve, missing the winners and catching the losses, and ultimately unable to take the next trade that launches the big two steps forward and new equity highs. They begin to cherry pick, and picking wrong. Often, the most uncomfortable counter-intuitive trades are the best trades. They wind up NOT trading the system that has given the winning edge and growing equity curve. They wind up trading something other than that, with no measurable history and guess what.. They wind up blaming the system they are incorrectly trading, refusing to take responsibility for their own decisions and the likelihood that they probably made a big mistake, to begin trading a system without building the necessary foundation; without going through the necessary steps to actually take 'ownership' of the system, so they can believe in it, and trade it with 'confidence' and then, benefit from the edge it gives, over time. It's a story that plays out over and over again.
Let's take a closer look at some of the sessions that made up the 2010 stellar results.
1. April really struggled but managed to pull it together in the end, finishing with +15.6 points. But after the 2nd week, we were only up by 9 ticks. April dished up some hard single sessions too, the three worst being -7.6, - 11.2 and -7.9 points. Some people said "ouch" when that occurred. Getting kicked in the shins does hurt, for sure. But if you were not over trading your means, that's all it was. A hard kick to the shins. We still had our legs though, and the SST was about to put plenty of spring in our step. At least if you were still around. If you had the vision to stay with it. If not, you quit. Maybe starting out, working hard, and struggling to trade your way to a meager 9 tick gain that 2nd week, was all the pain you could take. Tragic..
2. May was like the rocket ship finally pulling away from Earth's gravity. That's what it seemed like and the equity curve shows it. We netted +48.7 points the first week of May! (It should be noted that for the first few months, I was tracking and posting the pm session with the One and Done Power of Quitting approach and those results did end up in these totals. I stopped tracking them after seeing its consistency, for time expediency and because I wanted to turn my attention to other markets. The pm session did improve the results most of the time, but not always. I say this now because it is worth considering if you are currently trading the TF.) May ended with +113.4 net points! But included in that total were sessions that lost in the double digits, much like in April. Some downright ugly sessions, the worst being -10.8 points on a day with far too many trades taken. "Ditch Diggers" should take note and make appropriate trade decisions based on this knowledge. Also it should be noted that the occasional session will pop up where we are hitting winners, but we are getting stopped out prematurely, with only 1 tick gainers, while hitting regular losses. These sessions do exist, pop up from time to time, and do go with the territory. Still, +113.4 net points should have you raising your eyebrows, no? And the risk free stop moves work the other way too, preventing some losses. It's a trade-off.
3. How 'bout June? Huge month! Weekly totals were +16.4, +27.2, +15.8 and +6 for a net result of + 65.4 points! The members of our live trade room were loving it! Who wouldn't?
4. July was hard. We took a step back in July, actually ending the month down, - 14.2 points. It was a hard month. We actually had a session where we lost -17.6 points and that was after taking a -6.8 haircut the day before. I had stopped tracking the pm session trades at this point. I can tell you -- members were quitting.. Especially those who were just beginning, who let Murphy in the door, who had no vision, no foundation, didn't do any work to actually take real ownership, had no way to put what they were experiencing into the overall, broader context, etc.. (big mistake!)
5. August: oof! The best trades (and sessions) follow the worst. Our rocket boosters kicked in and the 'one step back' launched us into a big two steps forward (more even, way more..) as we proceeded to gain +40.9 points the first week. The trailing stop was beginning to wake up and show its prowess. We managed to fight and claw our way to another +16 or so points, ending the month with a respectable +56.7. Moreover, the SST went public, on the 23rd and was officially on its way to being independantly traded by other traders. iWhat a concept that was for me, to actually wrap my mind around. People were actually trading live, independent of my tradecalls, the system that I had created. I can't tell you how insecure I was. What if they didn't take the time to really learn it? What if they didn't take my advice to take it slow and actually do some 'ditch digging' of their own? How could they actually understand what it will do if given the proper chance? All these things were going through my mind. I really felt, and continue to feel to this day, the overwhelming responsibility presenting a trade system that would help people, but could possibly hurt them too, if they didn't approach it properly. But, like any powerful tool, you better take the time to learn it well. Give me a hydraulic nail gun and I'd probably shoot myself in the forehead if I tried to use it without learning it well first. Make sense?
6. September started with a rare losing week. When I say rare, I mean it was like, only the 4th losing week since beginning in April and we only lost -3.5 points. We came back with a double digit, holiday shortened winning week after that, winning 11 out of 12 trades (many were just 1 tick gainers that kept us out of trouble) for + 10.6 points. We finished the month with +45.9 points.
7. October was hot and cold but we had positive totals each week and wound up with a net of +59.3 points.
8. November continued our weekly total winning streak with all winning weeks and a net total of +66.5 points.
9. December; who woulda thunk it, but December was quite good, thin volume, holiday trading and all. Here's what makes it even more interesting. We started with a big step back and a break to our weekly result winning streak, taking a -9.6 point loss for our 5th losing week of the year (since April). We even started the Monday following that hard week, with another -6.8 point loss. Members were quitting! Sound familiar? Of course they were. They always quit after a few losses. We charged back though and ended December with +31.4 points, and of course, the year ended with our +462.6 net points (including the couple months of pm trades).
Did those that quit, make a mistake? I guess it depends on what they were after. If they were after easy money, than they didn't make a mistake. Trading is NOT easy. It is HARD. But, it is doable and obtainable, to those who want it bad enough. +462.6 points! Tough, hard, painful sessions included.. I've been harping alot on those and not even mentioning the joy and pleasure that we also experienced all along the way, with the big winning sessions. And there were a lot of those! Look at the monthly totals. It didn't happen by accident. But also, lots of 'grind it out' sessions that produced marginal gains and losses. It's all in there. That's trading! All we can do is put the odds in our favor on every trade and let the odds work for us, over time. The winning edge. That's what makes us our money.
2011 so far, has been much of the same. Tough sessions and hard, right edge of the chart trade decisions to make, that are counter intuitive, uncomfortable and never easy. Yet the first two months have given us another +55.3 points. Trading has been harder, for sure. It seems the trailer has gone back to sleep. The new and effective GetBob trade has helped a bunch and we ended the first two months with our steady winning percentage of 67.35%. This year, like any year, the world seems to always be teetering on the brink of some disaster and the price action in the markets refect this. Fast markets are always a challange. Slow, boring, yawners are also a challange in a different way. When is the market perfect? Well, it's in the results. We do have some great winning streaks. But they were sometimes hard fought as well. You want easy? Not sure what direction to point you in.
Speed forward to today. What more can I say? We just ended with the worst 3 sessions in a row since the SST began. We really took a step or two backwards. I guarantee that members are quitting. They always do. Only time will tell whether or not they are making the right decision, or not. I don't blame human beings for running for cover when the bullets start flying. But good traders can not affort to be human! The market isn't. That's why we rely on a trade system like the SST or some method that keeps us objective. Unemotional. Detached. That's how we are able to know what to do, at the right edge of the chart, when the next perplexing trade setup presents itself, in real time.
I hope the quitters find what they're looking for. The sad thing is that they found it already. If they would have just taken the time to learn it well, before committing real money, they wouldn't keep quitting right before the two steps forward to new and higher profit levels begin. There is a step by step process that puts a trader on the right pathway, with the greatest likelihood to achieving success. It's not as pretty as how they imagined it and the attractive profitable results contain within it some serious ugliness at times.
That's the business. Accept it and show up on Monday. New equity highs are on the way. Those that didn't quit will reap the benefits, as they always do. 1200 live trades, sitting a stones throw beneath their all time profit levels, 'probably' are not wrong. I'd say 'can't be wrong' but then that would be implying that I actually DO know what will happen next. I don't. No one does. Lean on the system. Let the edge work for you. Be the facilitator of your tradeplan. Be the operator of your trade business. Hopefully that plan and business does not include, fretting the next trade because that will never work, and for sure, it is NOT included in the results I have presented here. It belongs to someone else's trade system. If you are fretting, let that be an indicator that you're probably trading a market and time frame that you shouldn't be trading. Slow it down. Look for a market with less risk. Recapitalize. Dig some ditches. But don't trade beyond your means. The fretting trader is the scared trader is the losing trader. I should know. I had to learn that lesson right away the moment I started calling live trades in a traderoom with all the attendees hanging on my every word.
A few tidbits before I move onto other things (for those still reading):
• The above results are using the basic 2 position approach only, on each trade. If one were to apply a simple fixed fractional money management plan, as provided in the UTA, and put a 2% risk on each trade based on the avg losing trade, one would have earned nearly $200,000 net of trade costs (commission and slippage) taking the exact trades that produced our +463 points, by year's end, 2010. That would be if starting with a $20,000 trade account and capping each position at 10 contracts each, once the account grew large enough. It also includes the drawdowns that went with it.
• In 2008, I started tracking my live UMT Russell eMini trade calls, May 12th. Quit the end of Nov, due to the ER2 migrating over from the CME to the ICE exchange. Also, the sub-prime mortgage was wreaking havoc and the Russell was untradable for a while. Up until that point, my ER2 tradecalls produced +167.3 points and a 60.7% winning percentage with the original UMT, Universal Market Trader.
• In 2009, I called 701 live trades in the Russell eMini using the UMT. We managed a solid 61.6% winning percentage and gained 211.7 points. On the 650th trade, we began an 11 trade losing streak. Guess what. Many members quit. Who could blame them, right? Especially those who were newer and lacked the bigger, broader vision. Big mistake! Notice the theme? Trade #12 was the beginning of a 16 trade winning streak and a breakout to new all time profit levels. All the trades were documented on our blog. In fact, I kept a running tally, adding or subtracting position size with each $5000 swing in equity. I subtracted out trade costs each week. by the end of the year, (I began this tracking experiment in Feb, I believe) we were up 400% net of expenses! That's with a 61% winning trade system. See Results here
• SST has produced a 67% win rate, steadily, for over 1200 Russell trades, two positions each. Our all time equity highs happened one month ago, where we were over +523 points (+$52,386 with no money mgt increase in position size. Just the two position approach on each trade). Today, counting the tough sessions this week, we are at +495.1points and there's no denying, we went one step back. Current Equity Curve
What does that mean though? What does history show us, over and over again? Think about it before you throw in the towel.
Here is some interesting information I discovered with the UTA
• Trades from 9:30 to 10:00; 1051 trades; 65.1%; +226 points
• Trades from 10:00 to 10:30; 495 trades; 65.3%; + 38 points (clearly the least profitable)
• Trades from 10:30 to 12:00; 448 trades; 70%; + 158 points (don't read into this incorrectly. Keep in mind we were often finished with our power of quitting goals before we got to these later time slots in which case, many trades were not logged.)
• pm trades; 12:40 to 15:50; 226 trades; 73.45%; +73.5 points (this only included the couple months I tested the pm)
• It seems to me it would be worth the 'ditch digging' effort to further test a tradeplan that begins around 10:30 and allows for a pm session. The above numbers tell a compelling story but further work is advised.
Here's a list of some of the worst sessions and the news events that were taking place:
• 4/12/10; - 11.2, Fed Budget Balance
• 4/15; -5.1, tax day and first losing week
• 4/21; - 7.4, day prior to unemployment claims
• 5/12; - 11.2 (again!), Fed Budget Balance (again!)
• 5/20; -10.8; unemployment claims
• 5/27; -6.4; unemployment claims
• 7/8; -6.8; unemployment claims
• 7/13; -8.9; fed budget balance, trade balance
• 8/17; -12.8, Geitner speaks
• 9/3; - 8; Non Farm Employment Change, (day prior only gained +.9)
• 10/18; - 9, Geitner speaks
• 11/23; -5.2; FOMC Minutes; Prelim GDP
• 12/1; -5.4; ADP Non Farm Employment change
• 12/3; -4.8; Non Farm Employment Change, (day prior only gained +.6)
• 1/13/11; -5.3; FOMC Statement
• 2/7/11; -15.5; Trichet Statement; Bernanke later in week and a world going crazy.. Don't know really..
• 2/11/11; -5.9; Trade Balance
• 2/16/11; -7; FOMC, Geitner speaks
• 3/2; -8.6; ADP Non Farm Payroll; Bernanke Testimony; Beige Book
• 3/3; - 17.8; Unemployment Claims, day prior to very important Non Farm Payroll
• 3/4; - .9; Non Farm Payroll (had to fight through very hard trading again to scratch our way back to a negative 9 tick result and our worst losing week since SST came out.)
Hopefully that list will clue you into the sessions that you might want to approach cautiously or with a reduced expectation. If you read this far down, I truly hope it was worth your time. I will try to answer any and all questions if anyone has any.
|The Following User Says Thank You to tjnoon For This Useful Post:|
|03-11-2011, 08:07 PM||#15|
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Russell Charges Back
After the tough few sessions (and long post ) last week, the Russell eMini put together quite a performance. This week, we had a 5 session winning streak. We took 16 trades, winning 10, breaking even on 3 and losing 3. That's more like it, no? In fact, we are a mere 10 points shy of our all time equity highs. This week we gained a respectable +14 points.
Just to put things in perspective, sticking with the theme of the prior post (the long one), take a look at the equity curve I posted to start this thread, and then now look at the equity curve after today's session.
The point being that the longer term persepective is where you need to be if you hope to be successful, in my opinion. As I said earlier, traders quit after last week's tough sessions. This week, those same traders missed the 14 point gain. The thing is, that any other market they decide to trade, with any other winning trade method, will ultimately go through the same thing and will hit a period of difficulty. The money is made by the edge we get by staying with the winning horse in the first place. Especially when the winning horse gets tired legs for a while. The legs will refresh and the horse will win again. The best trades follow the worst trades. Don't quit at the end of the one step back. Don't jump back in at the end of the two steps forward. We call that, 'chasing performance' and you will always be on the wrong side of the equation.
It has been a tough early part of the year for the TF. It was tough this time last year too. We only have +46 points so far this year. As long as we stay with our winning horse, we'll continue to get our upward angle of the equity curve as shown.
|03-15-2011, 01:28 PM||#16|
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Re: Russell EMini Results
I thought I would post a video walking through the 5 sessions referenced above. We had a 6th winning session Monday, putting the TF just 6 points below its all time equity highs since last April. Today is FOMC statement day and the TF is struggling as would be expected. It is advised to limit your trading to just a few trades, if any, on a day like today.
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