[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

I spent quite a bit of time looking at the chart trying to figure out which 'fake BO' to which you were referring?

I was thinking you meant 'fake BO' of the swings, i.e. HHs and LHs etc......

But it seems like you were referring to BOs from those hinges you constructed right? If so it seems like the chart pattern itself is rather arbitrary, in that the BO would be meaningful only if it coincided with price leaving a former S/R level, with some type of price action to confirm it? I.e. the breakout from the hinge/chart pattern is just a coincidence with something else.

• Like in your first circle, I'm having a hard time seeing why you'd expect price to break to the short side, or looking for a BO at that point?
  
• The second circle, I'm also wondering why you'd expect a long BO at that point?
  
  It seems like 'IF' you wanted to go long, you'd have to wait for price to break above the point on the picture, where price was in a decline, made a low, followed by a HIGH, then a HIGHER LOW Followed by the BO. This is the white lines.
  
  If you were looking short, It seems you'd see price was on the rise AFTER that big drop(big green up bar), then made a HIGH, followed by a LOW, then a LOWER HIGH, then the BO. This is the orange lines.

Of course it's easy for me to say the two above bullet points in hindsight, but I'm just not seeing why you'd expect price to BO where you pointed to on the chart, unless it was purely looking at a chart pattern?

I managed to confuse myself writing this, so if the above is unclear I fully understand.

I was thinking that maybe we can come up with a rule to the pattern in which price is converging in a symetrical (or non symetrical) triangle, price than pokes out of the boundaries of that triangle (flag) but than it really makes a big move into the opposit direction.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I have to run. Here's a current look at the EURUSD. I don't have time to post the EURJPY, but you can se something similar there as well.

eNQ saw the same breakdown, one swing lower:

Originally Posted by EminiNQtrader »

a view on the EUR.USD

And price did all one could ask for it to do. It stood up, waved its hand, and said to anyone willing to listen that if it passed below 1.5027, it was likely heading lower.

First chart is the pre-breakdown pic I posted this morning, The Second pic shows the breakdown. Price reached both targets and extended further to the downside. The third picture is my view of the 4 hour EURUSD, showing that price had rallied into a resistance zone.

Please, folks, do not make this more difficult than it is. Just be patient, wait for price to work its way to a support or resistance level, watch how it behaves, and act accordingly.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

I was thinking ...

I would venture that better than half of all trading losses were preceded by just those words.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[fxThunder]

watching this on EUR.USD for long opp.

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I would venture that better than half of all trading losses were preceded by just those words.

Best Wishes,

Thales

I love to think (it is a massage for the grey cells) but I guess in trading it is not a good idea.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by EminiNQtrader »

2 charts here for GBP.USD.

240min indicating support area

15min indicating long that I am considering

What is nice here is that price indicated that it was considering a bounce, and so long as one were patient, and waited for price to confirm its intentions by printing a higher high, one would have been safely flat as price chose instead to notch a new session low.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Kiwi]

Gabe,

Commiserations on thinking. Thinking leads to experimental trades and thus to losses.

I am also prone to this error and when combined with boredom or frustration it is a powerful wallet emptier.

Trading should be based on things we have tested repeatedly and found to have a statistical edge. As suggested, there was no 123breakout up - in fact you can see that my system picked up two 123breakouts down while you were hunting the snark.


For the record I held my paper GU trade yesterday despite my 4 little indians and a later test of the bottom where it was forming higher highs and higher lows on the 15m timeframe. Lessons for me were: if trading against trend then take profits quickly; if I get 3 little indians look to get out even during asia ... wait for later proof of intent and reentry.

.

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

Gabe,

For the record I held my paper GU trade yesterday despite my 4 little indians.

.

Hello Kiwi

Could you explain what are the LITTLE INDIANS?

Thanks

Gabe